Covid-19 Pandemisinin Ekonomik, Toplumsal ve Siyasal Etkileri

EnglishTürkçe

CHAPTER


DOI :10.26650/B/SS46.2020.005.03   IUP :10.26650/B/SS46.2020.005.03    Full Text (PDF)

Covıd-19 Küresel Salgını ve Maliye Politikalarının Etkinliği

Murat Ustaoğlu

COVID-19 virüsünün dünya genelinde hızla yayılması sosyal hayat kadar iktisadi hayatı da derinden etkilemiştir. Pandeminin insan sağlığını tehdit eden menfi sonuçlarından kaynaklanan sosyo-iktisadi belirsizlikler küresel ekonominin geleceğine dair endişeye yol açmıştır. Farklı mecralarda dillendirilen olumsuz senaryoların gerçekleşme olasılığı, krize karşı uygulanacak maliye politikalarının etkinliğinin analiz edilmesi ihtiyacını doğurmuştur. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi açısından hangi maliye politikasının daha efektif olacağını tespit edebilmek için öncelikle (i) mali çarpan hesaplaması yapılmış, sonrasında (ii) çarpanın 1960 yılında günümüze değişim trendi analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında yaklaşan krizle mücadelede kamu harcamalarının -vergi indirimlerine kıyasla- daha etkin bir politik enstrüman olduğu ortaya konulmuştur.


Keywords: Pandemi, maliye politikaları ve Türkiye ekonomisi

References

  • Aktas, Z., Kaya, N., & Özlale, Ü. (2010). Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 123-138. google scholar
  • Alesina, A. F., & Ardagna, S. (2009). Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending. Retrieved from google scholar
  • Arestis, P. (2012). Fiscal policy: a strong macroeconomic role. Review of Keynesian Economics, Inaugural ıssue, 93-108. google scholar
  • Baldacci, E., Gupta, S., & Mulas-Granados, C. (2009). How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises? Retrieved from Washington, DC: google scholar
  • Barrell, R., Fic, T., & Liadze, I. (2009). Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in the Banking Crisis. National Institute Economic Review, 207, 43-51. google scholar
  • Batini, N., Eyraud, L., Forni, L., & Weber, A. (2014). Fiscal Multipliers: Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections. Retrieved from Washington DC: google scholar
  • Batini, N., Eyraud, L., & Weber, A. (2014). A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers. Retrieved from Washinton DC: google scholar
  • Baunsgaard, T., Mineshima, A., Poplawski-Ribeiro, M., & Weber, M. (2012). Fiscal Multipliers. Retrieved from Washington: google scholar
  • Blanchard, O. (2004). Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil. Retrieved from google scholar
  • Çebi, C. (2012). The interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Turkey: An estimated New Keynesian DSGE model. Economic Modelling, 29, 1258-1267. google scholar
  • Çebi, C., & Özdemir, K. A. (2016). Cyclical Variation of Fiscal Multiplier in Turkey. Retrieved from google scholar
  • Çekin, S. E. (2013). Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in Turkey: A Markov Switching Approach. Paper presented at the FRB Conference, Texas. google scholar
  • Cevik, E. I., Diboglu, S., & Kutan, A. M. (2014). Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 42, 1079-1091. google scholar
  • Delong, J. B., & Summers, L. H. (2012). Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 233-297. google scholar
  • Favero, C., & Giavazzi, F. (2004). Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil. Retrieved from google scholar
  • Feldstein, M. (2009). Rethinking the Role of Fiscal Policy. American Economic Review, 99(2), 556-559. google scholar
  • Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of Coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy. Retrieved from Spain: google scholar
  • Fetai, B. (2017). The effects of fiscal policy during the financial crises in transition and emerging countries: does fiscal policy matter? Economic Research, 30(1), 1522-1535. google scholar
  • Göndör, M., & Özpençe, Ö. (2014). An Empirical Study on Fiscal Policy in crises time: Evidence from Romania and Turkey Procedia Economics and Finance 15, 975 – 984. google scholar
  • Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. G., & Vegh, C. A. (2013). How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239-254. google scholar
  • IMF. (2012). Balancing Fiscal Risks. Retrieved from Washington D.C.: google scholar
  • IMF. (2020). World Economic Outlook Database. google scholar
  • Jawadi, F., Mallick, S. K., & Sousa, R. M. (2016). Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICS: A panel VAR approach. Economic Modelling, 58, 535-542. google scholar
  • Kandil, M., & Morsy, H. (2014). Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries. Eastern Economic Journal 40, 420-439. google scholar
  • Klein, M., & Wasserman, M. (March 12, 2020). Coronavirus and the Health of the U.S. Economy. Retrieved from https://econofact.org/coronavirus-and-the-health-of-the-u-s-economy google scholar
  • Leeper, E. M., & Yun, T. (2006). Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and the price level: Background and beyond. International Tax and Public Finance, 13, 373-409. google scholar
  • Lerner, A. P. (1941). The Economic Steering Wheel. University Review, June, 2-8. google scholar
  • Lerner, A. P. (1943). Functional Finance and the Federal Debt. Social Research, 10(1), 38-51. google scholar
  • Morris, K., & Karmin, C. (March 13, 2020). Hotels Turn to Layoffs, Room Rate Cuts as Business Staggers. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/hotels-turn-to-layoffs-room-rate-cuts-as-businessstaggers-11584108223 google scholar
  • Musgrave, R. A. (1959). The Theory of Public Finance: A Study in Public Economy. New York: McGraw-Hill Publisher. google scholar
  • Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2010). The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks. American Economic Review, 100(3), 763-821. google scholar
  • Sargent, T., & Wallace, N. (1981). Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review(Fall), 1-17. google scholar
  • Semmler, W., & Zhang, W. (2004). Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area. Empirica, 31, 205-227. google scholar
  • Şen, H., & Kaya, A. (2015). Ekonomik Krizlerin Değişmeyen İmdatçısı: Maliye Politikası. Sosyoekonomi, 1, 55-86. google scholar
  • Şen, H., & Kaya, A. (2018). How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey? Turkish Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.1 080/14683849.2019.1696677 google scholar
  • Zoli, E. (2005). How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries? BIS working paper no. 174. Monetary and Economic Department. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/work174.htm google scholar


SHARE




Istanbul University Press aims to contribute to the dissemination of ever growing scientific knowledge through publication of high quality scientific journals and books in accordance with the international publishing standards and ethics. Istanbul University Press follows an open access, non-commercial, scholarly publishing.