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DOI :10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009   IUP :10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009    Full Text (PDF)

Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach

Tuğba Yalnız, Gökçe Candan

Nowadays, there are many investment tools in the financial markets to assess the savings of individual investors. The diversity of investment instruments in the market makes it difficult for investors to make decisions about evaluating savings. However, developments and uncertainties in the economy affect the individual investor’s investment decision. The aim of this study is to reveal the economic, social, investment instrument characteristics and analysis techniques that can be usefulin the process of evaluating the savings of individual investors in financial investment instruments. The purpose of this study is to provide a new perspective by evaluating the relationships between the criteria affecting investment decision with the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. In addition to the support from the literature, my financial work experience contributed to my study in the process of determining the criteria included in the study. In this study, the Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used and the opinions of 10 experts responsible for financial decisions were taken. This research concludes that the most important factor that affects individual investors when making decisions is the analysis techniques used in the selection of investment instruments in line with the criteria used in the study.

Keywords: Finance, Individual investor, Fuzzy DEMATEL, Uncertainty, Portfolio management
DOI :10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009   IUP :10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009    Full Text (PDF)

Belirsizlik Şartlarında Yatırım Karar Analizine Etki Eden Faktörlerin Bulanık DEMATEL Yaklaşımıyla Değerlendirilmesi

Tuğba Yalnız, Gökçe Candan

Günümüzde finansal piyasalarda bireysel yatırımcıların tasarruflarını değerlendirmek için pek çok yatırım araçları bulunmaktadır. Piyasada yer alan yatırım araçlarının çeşitliliği yatırımcıların birikimleri değerlendirme konusunda karar vermeleri güçleştirmektedir. Bununla beraber ekonomide yaşanan gelişmeler ve belirsizlikler bireysel yatırımcının yatırım kararını etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı bireysel yatırımcıların tasarruflarını finansal yatırım araçlarında değerlendirme sürecinde etkili olan ekonomik ve sosyal faktörleri, yatırım aracı özelliklerini ve analiz tekniklerini ortaya koymaktır. Literatüre bakıldığında bireysel yatırımcıların yatırım kararını etkileyen faktörler davranışsal finans kapsamında birçok araştırma konusu olmuştur. Bu çalışma, yatırım kararını etkileyen kriterler arasındaki ilişkileri Bulanık DEMATEL metodu ile değerlendirerek, yatırımcılara yeni bir bakış açısı kazandıracaktır. Çalışmada Bulanık DEMATEL yöntemi kullanılmış, finansal kararlardan sorumlu 10 uzman kişinin görüşü alınmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda çalışmada kullanılan kriterler doğrultusunda bireysel yatırımcıların karar verirken en önem verdikleri faktörün yatırım aracı seçiminde kullanılan analiz teknikleri olduğu görülmüştür.

Keywords: Finans, Bireysel yatırımcı, Bulanık DEMATEL, Belirsizlik, Portföy yönetimi

EXTENDED ABSTRACT


Nowadays, there are many investment tools in the financial markets to assess the savings of individual investors. The diversity of investment instruments in the market makes it difficult for investors to make decisions about evaluating savings. Furthermore, developments and uncertainties in the economy affect the individual investor’s investment decision. In the economy, individuals use part of their income for consumption expenditures and savings. Individuals who make savings are evaluated byvarious investment instruments in order to make a profit. In this process, the main objective of investors is to obtain the highest return with minimum risk. Investors evaluate their savings in investment instruments with a certain expectation of return. The existence of many investment instruments in the economy reveals the issue of which investment instrument the investor should use. A balanced distribution of investor accumulation in multiple investment instruments instead of a single investment instrument will provide protection against fluctuations in the markets. Throughout the history of finance, studies have been conducted on how markets affect individual investment preferences. Investors follow the political, economic and social situations in the markets to make the right investment decision. There are many investment tools for transferring the idle resources to the financial system. Financial investment instruments provide the opportunity for individuals who make savings to protect their capital and earn money. For this reason, financial decisions are important in the efficient functioning of the market. All future financial decisions include uncertainty. The uncertainty of the future makes investors’ decision difficult. The financial decisions of investors who wish to use their savings in various investment instruments are important in the efficient management of funds in the economy. Decisions have a significant impact on financial markets. Monetary loss or profit as a result of the investment makes it difficult for investors to make decisions. Individual investors aim to achieve the highest risk with the lowest risk in financial investment decisions. If the risk of a financial investment instrument is high, the expectation of high return on this investment instrument increases. Traditional finance theories are based on the principle that individuals make decisions by acting rationally. Individual investors make a rational choice of financial investment instruments in their investment decisions and strive for maximum return on their savings. Since investors are rational, they analyze decisions in financial investment instruments rationally. However, in this process, the investor encounters many factors affecting the investment decision in the market. The decisions taken affect the outcome of the investment either positively or negatively. Therefore, the evaluation of the criteria affecting the investment decision has been included in many academic researches. In this study, the importance of the criteria affecting the investment decisions of the investors trading in financial markets is analyzed. The aim of this study is to compare the criteria that the financial investment decision makers take into consideration in the decision-making process. The criteria included in the study; Global Markets, Domestic Financial Indicators, Investment Instrument Characteristics and Analysis Techniques Used. The aim of this study is to reveal the economic, social, investment instrument characteristics and analysis techniques that are useful in the process of evaluating the savings of individual investors in financial investment instruments. The purpose of this study is to provide a new perspective by evaluating the relationships between the criteria affecting investment decision with the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. In addition to the support from the literature, my financial work experience contributed to my study in the process of determining the criteria included in the study. In this study, the Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used and the opinions of 10 experts responsible for financial decisions were taken. As a result of the findings obtained from the opinions of the experts based on the criteria, the most important criterion among the criteria was revealed to be Technical analysis. Investors pay attention to past price movements of investment instruments in decision-making. The second criterion that was given importance among the criteria was Global markets. After the financial globalization, all the information related to the economic and political situation of countries affect the values of the investment instruments in the market.


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APA

Yalnız, T., & Candan, G. (2019). Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 0(30), 49-64. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009


AMA

Yalnız T, Candan G. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics. 2019;0(30):49-64. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009


ABNT

Yalnız, T.; Candan, G. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 30, p. 49-64, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Yalnız, Tuğba, and Gökçe Candan. 2019. “Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0, no. 30: 49-64. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009


Chicago: Humanities Style

Yalnız, Tuğba, and Gökçe Candan. “Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0, no. 30 (Apr. 2024): 49-64. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009


Harvard: Australian Style

Yalnız, T & Candan, G 2019, 'Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach', EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, vol. 0, no. 30, pp. 49-64, viewed 25 Apr. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Yalnız, T. and Candan, G. (2019) ‘Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach’, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 0(30), pp. 49-64. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009 (25 Apr. 2024).


MLA

Yalnız, Tuğba, and Gökçe Candan. “Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, vol. 0, no. 30, 2019, pp. 49-64. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009


Vancouver

Yalnız T, Candan G. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics [Internet]. 25 Apr. 2024 [cited 25 Apr. 2024];0(30):49-64. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009 doi: 10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009


ISNAD

Yalnız, Tuğba - Candan, Gökçe. “Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach”. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0/30 (Apr. 2024): 49-64. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2018.30.0009



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Submitted08.07.2019
Accepted12.07.2019

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