Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation

Jackson Emerson

doi:https://dx.doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

Research Article

DOI :10.26650/JEPR795665 IUP :10.26650/JEPR795665 Full Text (PDF)

Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation

When the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced COVID-19 to be a global pandemic great chaos was brought to the world economy, with institutions and economies forced to close down in a bid to save lives. While it was a well-known fact that there was no immediate cure for the disease, institutions had no option but to utilise non-traditional means of containing the alarming spread of the virus. All around the world, institutions like the health sector and central banks utilised various forecast models as a way of projecting the scale of the spread of the virus and its overall impact on economic well-being. The findings from the ARIMA (4,1,4) model indicate that there is a likelihood of the virus spreading at a rate of 13 contracted cases per day up to 28th February 2021 and beyond. The key take home from this study shows that institutions, particularly the health sector, must stay alert to ensure measures are continually set in place to curb the likelihood of the virus spreading above and beyond the projected estimate. At the same time, institutional support from the central bank, with its stimulus packages, should continue in a bid to diffuse or allay worries of a possible collapse in the economy.

Keywords: COVID-19, ARIMA Model, Forecast, Sierra Leone

JEL Classification : C22 , C53 , C82 , I12 , I18

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Jackson, E.A. (2021). Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 8(1), 29-43. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

AMA

Jackson E A. Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches. 2021;8(1):29-43. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

ABNT

Jackson, E.A. Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, [Publisher Location], v. 8, n. 1, p. 29-43, 2021.

Chicago: Author-Date Style

Jackson, Emerson Abraham,. 2021. “Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 8, no. 1: 29-43. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

Chicago: Humanities Style

Jackson, Emerson Abraham,. “Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 8, no. 1 (Apr. 2024): 29-43. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

Harvard: Australian Style

Jackson, EA 2021, 'Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation', Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 29-43, viewed 25 Apr. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

Harvard: Author-Date Style

Jackson, E.A. (2021) ‘Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation’, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 8(1), pp. 29-43. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665 (25 Apr. 2024).

MLA

Jackson, Emerson Abraham,. “Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 8, no. 1, 2021, pp. 29-43. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

Vancouver

Jackson EA. Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches [Internet]. 25 Apr. 2024 [cited 25 Apr. 2024];8(1):29-43. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665 doi: 10.26650/JEPR795665

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Jackson, EmersonAbraham. “Forecasting COVID-19 Daily Contraction in Sierra Leone with Implications for Policy Formulation”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 8/1 (Apr. 2024): 29-43. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR795665

Volume 8, Issue 12021, P. 29-43

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Submitted	16.09.2020
Accepted	08.12.2020
Published Online	29.01.2021

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