Research Article


DOI :10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018   IUP :10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018    Full Text (PDF)

Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey

Taner SarSedat AvcıMeral Avcı

In this research, 15 meteorological stations located in western Anatolia in Turkey were investigated for determining temperature properties. The vegetation season has been determined according to days when the daily temperature was greater than or equal to 8°C. The research area has 3 different vegetation durations as longer (more than 225 days in the western and southern parts), moderate (210-220 days in plateaus around Uşak, Gediz and Demirci), and shorter (180-195 days in the eastern part and less than 180 days in mountainous areas). Then, the vegetation has been reinvestigated according to climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). For this purpose, the daily mean temperatures were raised by 2.6°C and 4.8°C for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In the reinvestigation period, the vegetation period will increase about 15-20 days or over 40 days according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Along with the increase in temperature throughout the research area, growing seasons will be significantly affected, beginning and ending dates of vegetation would shift. Owing to climate change effects, mountainous areas may be affected more than low altitude areas. As a conclusion due to the result of increasing temperature, plant development and distribution will be affected, and new plant species may occur. 

DOI :10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018   IUP :10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018    Full Text (PDF)

Vejetasyon Döneminin İklim Değişimi Senaryolarına Göre Değerlendirilmesi: İç Batı Anadolu Bölümü Örneği

Taner SarSedat AvcıMeral Avcı

Araştırma alanı Türkiye’nin batısında yer alan İç Batı Anadolu Bölümüdür. Bu çalışmada bölümün sıcaklık özelliklerinin belirlenmesi için 15 farklı meteoroloji istasyonun verileri kullanılmıştır. Vejetasyon dönemi, günlük sıcaklık değerlerinin 8°C ve üzerinde olan gün sayısına göre belirlenmiştir. Araştırma alanında kısa (doğuda 180-195 gün arasında ve dağlık alanlarda 180 günün altında), orta (Uşak, Gediz ve Demirci platoları civarında 210-220 gün) ve uzun (batıda ve güneyde 225 günün üzerinde) dönem olmak üzere 3 farklı vejetasyon döneminin olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca, vejetasyon dönemi iklim değişimi senaryolarına (RCP 4.5 ve 8.5) göre yeniden belirlenmiştir. Bunun için günlük ortalama sıcaklıklar RCP 4.5 ve 8.5 senaryolarına göre sırasıyla 2.6°C ve 4.8°C arttırılmıştır. İklim değişimi etkileri ile günlük ortalama sıcaklıklar tekrardan incelendiğinde, vejetasyon süresinde RCP 4.5 senaryosuna göre 15-20 gün, 8.5 senaryosuna göre ise 40 günün üzerinde artış olabilir. Araştırma alanında bu sıcaklık artışları ile vejetasyon devresi önemli olarak etkilenebilir, vejetasyon döneminin başlangıcı ve sona erme tarihlerinde kaymalar olabilir. İklim değişimi etkisi yükseltisi az olan alanlara göre en çok dağlık alanlarda hissedilebilir. Bu çalışmanın sonucuna göre, araştırma alanındaki sıcaklık artışı bitkilerin gelişimi ile dağılışını etkileyebilir ve bu sahalara yeni bitki türleri de sokulabilir. 


PDF View

References

  • Ackerly, D.D., Cornwell, W.K., Weiss, S.B., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L. (2015). A geographic mosaic of climate change impacts on terrestrial vegetation: which areas are most at risk?. PLoS One, 10(6), e0130629. google scholar
  • Ackerly, D.D., Loarie, S.R., Cornwell, W.K., Weiss, S.B., Hamilton, H., Branciforte, R., Kraft, N.J.B. (2010). The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 476-487. google scholar
  • Aksoy, H., Unal, N.E., Alexandrov, V., Dakova, S., Yoon, J. (2008). Hydrometeorological analysis of northwestern Turkey with links to climate change. International Journal of Climatology, 28(8), 10471060. Aktaş, H. (1992). Plant Geography of Middle Black Sea Region (Between Yeşilırmak-Melet stream and Kelkit valley). İstanbul University, unpublished PhD thesis, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Albek, M., Öğütveren, Ü. B., Albek, E. (2004). Hydrological modeling of Seydi Suyu watershed (Turkey) with HSPF. Journal of Hydrology, 285(1), 260-271. google scholar
  • An, S., Zhu, X., Shen, M., Wang, Y., Cao, R., Chen, X., Yang, W., Chen, J., Tang, Y. (2018). Mismatch in elevational shifts between satellite observed vegetation greenness and temperature isolines during 2000-2016 on the Tibetan Plateau. Global Change Biology, 24, 5411-5425. google scholar
  • Angert, A.L., LaDeau, S.L., Ostfeld, R.S. (2013) Climate change and species interactions: ways forward. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1297(1), 1-7. google scholar
  • Atalay, İ. (1994). Vegetation Geography of Turkey. Ege University, İzmir (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Avcı, M. (1990). Plant geography in the western of Lakes Region in Turkey. İstanbul University, unpublished PhD thesis, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Avcı, M. (1995). Plant communities and their distribution on the western part of the Lakes District, Review of the Department of Geography University of İstanbul, 2, 47-72. google scholar
  • Avcı, M. (1996). Relationships between climatic characteristics and vegetation on the western part of the Lakes District. İstanbul Üniversitesi Coğrafya Dergisi, 4, 227-264 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Avcı, M. (1997). Forest remnants on the field between Karasu and Tuzla Stream. İstanbul Üniversitesi Coğrafya Dergisi, 5, 179-224 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Avcı, M. (1998). Plant geography of Ilgaz mountains and its surroundings I: Geographic conditions of plant cover. İstanbul Üniversitesi Coğrafya Dergisi, 6, 137-216 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Darkot, B., Tuncel, M. (1995). Geography of the Aegean Region. İstanbul University, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H., Coşkun, M. (2017). Climate change projections for Turkey: Three models and two scenarios. Türkiye Su Bilimleri ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 1(1), 22-43. google scholar
  • Dönmez, Y. (1972). Physical Geography Around the Kütahya Plains. İstanbul University, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Dönmez, Y. (1985). Geography of Plants. İstanbul University, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Elibüyük, M., Yılmaz, E. (2010). Altitude steps and slope groups of Turkey in comparison with geographical regions and sub-regions. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 27-55 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Engin, İ. (1992). Plant Geography of the area between DeğirmendereYanbolu creek and Harşit stream. İstanbul University, unpublished PhD thesis, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Erinç, S. (1984). Climatology and Methods. Istanbul University, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Erlat, E., Türkeş, M. (2017). Observed variations and trends in number of tropical nights in Turkey. Aegean Geographic Journal, 26(2), 95106 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • ESRI. (2013). ArcGIS 10.2 Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. Redlands, USA. google scholar
  • Fairbridge, R.W., Oliver, J.E. (2005). Lapse Rate. Encyclopedia of World Climatology. New York: Springer, 448-450. google scholar
  • Fortems-Cheiney, A., Foret, G., Siour, G., Vautard, R., Szopa, S., Dufour, G., Colette, A., Lacressonniere, G., Beekmann, M. (2017). A 3°C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory cancels benefits of European emission reductions on air quality. Nature Communications, 8(1), 89. google scholar
  • Frederiks, T.M., Christopher, J.T., Harvey, G.L., Sutherland, M.W., Borrell, A.K. (2012). Current and emerging screening methods to identify post-head-emergence frost adaptation in wheat and barley. Journal of Experimental Botany, 63(15), 5405-5416. google scholar
  • Fujihara, Y., Tanaka, K., Watanabe, T., Nagano, T., Kojiri, T. (2008). Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey: Use of dynamically downscaled data for hydrologic simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 353(1), 33-48. google scholar
  • Günal, N. (1986). Plant Geography Between Gediz and Büyük Menderes. İstanbul University, unpublished PhD thesis, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Günal, N. (1997). Geographical Distribution, Ecological and Floristic Characteristics of Principal Tree Species in Turkey. Çantay Press, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Günal, N. (2003). Plant Geography of Upper Gediz Basin. Çantay Press, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Günal, N. (2013). Effect of climate on natural plant vegetation in Turkey. Acta Turcica Çevrimiçi Tematik Türkoloji Dergisi, V(1), 1-22 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Güngördü, M. (1993). Plant geography of southern Marmara Region (part of west). İstanbul University, unpublished essay, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Inouye, D.W. (2008) Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers. Ecology, 89(2), 353-362. google scholar
  • IPCC. (2007). “Contribution of Working Groups I. II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Geneva, Switzerland. google scholar
  • IPCC. (2013). “Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA. google scholar
  • IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (Eds. Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield). https://www.ipcc.ch/site/ assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_Low_Res.pdf. google scholar
  • Kläring, H.P., Klopotek, Y., Krumbein, A., Schwarz, D. (2015). The effect of reducing the heating set point on the photosynthesis, growth, yield and fruit quality in greenhouse tomato production. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 214-215, 178-188. google scholar
  • Körner, C. (2015). Paradigm shift in plant growth control. Current Opinion in Plant Biology, 25, 107-114. google scholar
  • Leibundgut, H. (1970). Der Wald.Verlag Huber, Frauenfeld und Stuttgart. google scholar
  • Liu, Q., Piao, S., Janssens, I.A., Fu, Y., Peng, S., Lian, X., Ciais, P., Myneni, R.B., Peñuelas, J., Wang, T. (2018). Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost. Nature Communications, 9(1), 426. google scholar
  • Lizana, X.C., Avila, A., Tolaba, A., Martinez, J.P. (2017). Field responses of potato to increased temperature during tuber bulking: Projection for climate change scenarios, at high-yield environments of Southern Chile. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 239, 192201. google scholar
  • Mathur, S., Agrawal, D., Jajoo, A. (2014). Photosynthesis: response to high temperature stress. Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology B: Biology, 137, 116-126. Mazurczyk, W., Lutomirska, B., Wierzbicka, A. (2003). Relation between air temperature and length of vegetation period of potato crops. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 118(3), 169-172. google scholar
  • Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J.S., Kainuma, M.L.T, Lamarque, J.F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S.A., Raper, S.C.B, Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G.J.M., van Vuuren, D.P.P. (2011). The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. ‎ Climatic Change, 109(1-2), 213. google scholar
  • Mittler, R. (2006). Abiotic stress, the field environment and stress combination. Trends in Plant Science, 11(1), 15-19. google scholar
  • Nolan, C., Overpeck, J. T., Allen, J. R., Anderson, P. M., Betancourt, J. L., Binney, H. A., ... & Jackson, S.T. (2018). Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Science, 361(6405), 920-923. google scholar
  • Önol, B., Ünal, Y.S., Dalfes, H.N. (2009). Modeling impacts of climate change scenario over Turkey. ITU Journal Series D: Engineering, 8(5), 169-177 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Özdoğan, M. (2011). Modeling the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Northwestern Turkey. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 141(1-2), 1-12. google scholar
  • Ozkan, B., Akcaoz, H. (2002). Impacts of climate factors on yields for selected crops in the southern Turkey. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7(4), 367-380. google scholar
  • Pauli, H., Gottfried, M., Grabherr, G. (2014). Effects of climate change on the alpine and nival vegetation of the Alps. Journal of Mountain Ecology, 7, 9-12. google scholar
  • Porter, J.R., Gawith, M. (1999). Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. European Journal of Agronomy, 10(1), 23-36. google scholar
  • Primault, B. (1992). Temperature data used to determine a theoretical start to forest tree growth in spring. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 45(2), 139-143. google scholar
  • Şar, T. (2018). Vegetation period in the inner West Anatolia subregion and evaluation of climate change scenarios. İstanbul University, unpublished Master’s thesis, İstanbul (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Scheiter, S., Savadogo, P. (2017). Ecosystem management can mitigate vegetation shifts induced by climate change in African savannas. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts 19:2076. google scholar
  • Schmid, M., Ehlers, T., Werner, C., Hickler, T. (2018). Effect of vegetation change on denudation: Landscape response to transient climate and vegetation cover. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts 20:13659. google scholar
  • Sen, B., Topcu, S., Türkeș, M.,Sen, B., Warner, J.F. (2012). Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey. Climate Research, 52, 175-191. google scholar
  • Svenning, J.S., Eiserhardt, W.L., Normand, S., Ordonez, A., Sandel, B. (2015). The Influence of paleoclimate on present-day patterns in biodiversity and ecosystems. The Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 46, 551-572. google scholar
  • Svenning, J.S., Sandel, B. (2013). Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change. American Journal of Botany, 100(7), 1266-1286. google scholar
  • Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi K.R., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S.J., Rose, S.K., (2011). The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31. google scholar
  • Werner, C., Johan, L., Manuel, S., Juan-Pablo, F., Todd, A.E. Thomas, H. (2017). Simulating vegetation dynamics in Chile from 21ka BP to present: Effects of climate change on vegetation functions and cover. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts 19, 16673. google scholar
  • Wu, D., Zhao, X., Liang, S., Zhou, T., Huang, K., Tang, B., Zhao, W. (2015). Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change. Global Change Biology, 21(9), 3520-3531. google scholar
  • Yano, T., Aydin, M., Haraguchi, T. (2007). Impact of climate change on irrigation demand and crop growth in a Mediterranean environment of Turkey. Sensors, 7(10), 2297-2315. google scholar
  • Yılmaz, Ö. (2001). Vegetation of Afyon and its surroundings. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 37, 47-77 (in Turkish). google scholar
  • Zandalinas, S.I., Mittler, R., Balfagón, D., Arbona, V., Gómez-Cadenas, A. (2018). Plant adaptations to the combination of drought and high temperatures. Physiologia Plantarum, 162(1), 2-12. google scholar
  • Zhang, X., Yang, F. 2004. ETCCDI/CRD climate change indices. RClimDex (1.0). http://etccdi. pacificclimate.org (accessed 4 November 2018). google scholar

Citations

Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the options to export in your chosen format


EXPORT



APA

Sar, T., Avcı, S., & Avcı, M. (2019). Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey. Journal of Geography, 0(39), 29-39. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018


AMA

Sar T, Avcı S, Avcı M. Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey. Journal of Geography. 2019;0(39):29-39. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018


ABNT

Sar, T.; Avcı, S.; Avcı, M. Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey. Journal of Geography, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 39, p. 29-39, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Sar, Taner, and Sedat Avcı and Meral Avcı. 2019. “Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey.” Journal of Geography 0, no. 39: 29-39. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018


Chicago: Humanities Style

Sar, Taner, and Sedat Avcı and Meral Avcı. Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey.” Journal of Geography 0, no. 39 (Mar. 2024): 29-39. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018


Harvard: Australian Style

Sar, T & Avcı, S & Avcı, M 2019, 'Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey', Journal of Geography, vol. 0, no. 39, pp. 29-39, viewed 29 Mar. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Sar, T. and Avcı, S. and Avcı, M. (2019) ‘Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey’, Journal of Geography, 0(39), pp. 29-39. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018 (29 Mar. 2024).


MLA

Sar, Taner, and Sedat Avcı and Meral Avcı. Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey.” Journal of Geography, vol. 0, no. 39, 2019, pp. 29-39. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018


Vancouver

Sar T, Avcı S, Avcı M. Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey. Journal of Geography [Internet]. 29 Mar. 2024 [cited 29 Mar. 2024];0(39):29-39. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018 doi: 10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018


ISNAD

Sar, Taner - Avcı, Sedat - Avcı, Meral. Evaluation of the Vegetation Period According to Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Inner West Anatolia Subregion of Turkey”. Journal of Geography 0/39 (Mar. 2024): 29-39. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0018



TIMELINE


Submitted03.07.2019
Accepted09.09.2019
Published Online21.11.2019

LICENCE


Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.


SHARE




Istanbul University Press aims to contribute to the dissemination of ever growing scientific knowledge through publication of high quality scientific journals and books in accordance with the international publishing standards and ethics. Istanbul University Press follows an open access, non-commercial, scholarly publishing.