Research Article


DOI :10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002   IUP :10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002    Full Text (PDF)

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?

Bilge Kağan Özdemirİlyas Şıklar

This study aims to identify exogenous shocks in monetary policy and to investigate the impact of these shocks on the exchange rate in the Turkish economy using a VAR model including structural restrictions, referred to as structural VAR (SVAR) model. The empirical model used in the study was developed based on the monetary approach to exchange rate determination and was estimated using monthly data for the period between January 2003 and October 2019. Contrary to past studies conducted for Turkey, this study uses European Union data instead of U.S. data to represent foreign variables. The impulse response functions and variance decompositions obtained as a result of the SVAR model confirm the existence of a strong and almost instant overshooting effect on the Turkish economy for the period in question.

DOI :10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002   IUP :10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002    Full Text (PDF)

Para Politikası ve Döviz Kuru Dinamikleri: Türk Lirasında Sıçrama Etkisi Geçerli Mi?

Bilge Kağan Özdemirİlyas Şıklar

Bu çalışma, para politikasındaki dışsal şokları tanımlamayı ve yapısal VAR (SVAR) modeli olarak adlandırılan yapısal kısıtlar içeren bir VAR modeli kullanarak, bu şokların Türkiye ekonomisindeki döviz kuru üzerindeki etkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan ampirik model, döviz kurunun belirlenmesinde parasal yaklaşım çerçevesinde geliştirilmiştir ve Ocak 2003 ile Ekim 2019 arasındaki döneme ilişkin aylık veriler kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Türkiye için yapılan geçmiş çalışmaların aksine, bu çalışma yabancı değişkenleri temsil etmek için ABD verileri yerine Avrupa Birliği verilerini kullanmaktadır. SVAR modelinin tahmini sonucu elde edilen etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırması fonksiyonları, analiz sürecinde Türkiye ekonomisinde güçlü ve neredeyse eşanlı bir döviz kuru sıçrama etkisinin varlığını doğrular niteliktedir. 


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APA

Özdemir, B.K., & Şıklar, İ. (2020). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 29(2), 271-289. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002


AMA

Özdemir B K, Şıklar İ. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences. 2020;29(2):271-289. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002


ABNT

Özdemir, B.K.; Şıklar, İ. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, [Publisher Location], v. 29, n. 2, p. 271-289, 2020.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Özdemir, Bilge Kağan, and İlyas Şıklar. 2020. “Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 29, no. 2: 271-289. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002


Chicago: Humanities Style

Özdemir, Bilge Kağan, and İlyas Şıklar. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 29, no. 2 (Apr. 2024): 271-289. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002


Harvard: Australian Style

Özdemir, BK & Şıklar, İ 2020, 'Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?', Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 271-289, viewed 23 Apr. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Özdemir, B.K. and Şıklar, İ. (2020) ‘Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?’, Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 29(2), pp. 271-289. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002 (23 Apr. 2024).


MLA

Özdemir, Bilge Kağan, and İlyas Şıklar. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, vol. 29, no. 2, 2020, pp. 271-289. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002


Vancouver

Özdemir BK, Şıklar İ. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences [Internet]. 23 Apr. 2024 [cited 23 Apr. 2024];29(2):271-289. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002 doi: 10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002


ISNAD

Özdemir, BilgeKağan - Şıklar, İlyas. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Does the Turkish Lira Overshoot?”. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 29/2 (Apr. 2024): 271-289. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2020.29.2.0002



TIMELINE


Submitted14.01.2020
Accepted20.05.2020
Published Online30.10.2020

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