DOI :10.26650/PB/PS12.2019.002.022   IUP :10.26650/PB/PS12.2019.002.022    Full Text (PDF)

Demographic opportunity window to be transform to demographic crisis window for Turkey?

Burhan CanSedat Avcı

A period during which the working age population exceeds the sum of the young and old populations is known as a demographic window of opportunity. The most important feature of such times is that they only last for a certain period (30–40 years). Demographic windows of opportunity are critical for national and regional development, thus creating sufficient employment and using resources rationally will provide great advantages. One of the main factors leading to the opening of a demographic opportunity window is a decrease in the birth rate, and the window closes when the proportion of elderly increases. How this process is managed is important, as inefficient measures will not contribute to development and the population age structure may become problematic. The latter situation can be defined as a demographic window of crisis. As defined by the population characteristics of developed countries, the demographic window of opportunity has a different effect in developing countries. Because the demographic window of opportunity has not been well managed in many developing countries, it has often become a demographic crisis window. A demographic window of opportunity was opened for Turkey in 2005; however, characteristics of the country’s population structure indicate that the period will be relatively short. To benefit from current opportunities, qualified education should be increased and more resources should be directed toward investments and productivity. Otherwise, Turkey’s demographic window of opportunity will degrade into a demographic window of crisis.



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