DOI :10.26650/PB/PS12.2019.002.053   IUP :10.26650/PB/PS12.2019.002.053    Full Text (PDF)

Precipitation extremes and trends in Aegean Region

Irmak ZımbaZahide Acar

Precipitation extremes include differences from the long-term average. Extreme rainfall includes rainy events below and above the average. In this study, frequency of dry and heavy rainy periods, which are different from the average, were evaluated. Extreme precipitation events and variability in precipitation, meteorological and climatic disasters such as heavy rains and floods are the most important atmospheric disasters that affect human life. According to recent studies and various projections, the Mediterranean basin is one of the areas most affected by climate change. The scope of this study, Aegean Region, which is one of Turkey’s geographical regions. Precipitation extremes in Aegean region were investigated. The region covering the western part of Turkey is located in 8 provinces. 35 station data were used to represent the geography of the region. The basic statistics of the data were defined within the scope of the study. Kruskal-Wallis (K-W) test was used to determine whether there were any significant changes in precipitation data. Mann-Kendall (M-K) rank correlation coefficient method was used to understand the nature and magnitude of the variability in the data. The aim of this study is to understand the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of precipitation in the Aegean Region, to determine extreme precipitation events and to investigate the causes. According to the evaluations, the 1980s were the years in which statistically significant increases were observed in precipitation extremes throughout the Aegean Region. Declining trends are generally in 1990 and beyond. The period of 1980-1995 corresponds to the years in which significant droughts were experienced consecutively throughout the stations. In the 1996-2005 period, a weak upward trend was observed in precipitation. In general, the similarities in the temporal distribution of precipitation increases and decreases and extreme precipitation events are noteworthy in the study area. General tendency of precipitation is decreasing and regionally consistent.



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