DOI :10.26650/B/SS10.2023.001.02   IUP :10.26650/B/SS10.2023.001.02    Full Text (PDF)

Covid-19 and Food Inflation: A Case Study of Arima Modeling in Turkey

Büşra Kesici

The COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the world in 2020, significantly impacted the food and agriculture sectors. Production in the agricultural industry has been negatively affected, and food supply chains have been disrupted. Examining the consequences of the pandemic on the food and agriculture industries has become a major area of study for these reasons. Since prices are one of the most significant economic indicators, this book chapter examined the impact of the pandemic on the food and agriculture sector using price data. The primary objective of the book chapter is to assess the effects of COVID-19 on food prices in Turkey and to choose the most appropriate model for future price forecasting. Turkey's consumer price index for food and soft drinks and producer price index for food were used as data to evaluate the effect. The Box-Jenkins approach was utilized to forecast future periods of food inflation. Following the methodology mentioned above, the data period began before the pandemic. While the 2017m07-2021m08 period was determined as the estimation sample, the 2021m09-2021m11 period was determined as the forecast sample. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model is Turkey's most accurate predictor of food inflation. According to the results, it is anticipated that food prices in Turkey will continue to rise.


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