Barış

Res. Assist.

Nilgün

Prof.

Global warming and climate change are among the issues that governments are most interested in as of the 21st century. It has been revealed that greenhouse gases have the most important effect among the causes of global warming, since this subject has been discussed. Greenhouse gases consist of nitrous oxide, methane, water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) gases, and carbon dioxide (CO2) is seen as the most important gas that creates a greenhouse effect among these gases. The emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas, which is the result of fossil fuels used in many sectors of the economy, is of great importance in the energy policy process of governments because of this situation.As a result of the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas, which comes out with the combustion of primary fossil fuels, polluting the nature and increasing global warming seriously affects the environmental and climatic conditions of the world. For this reason, carbon dioxide emission per capita (CO2) is used as a variable in almost all scientific research reports in order to determine the environmental pollution levels of countries. Therefore, it is important to know the statinoary characteristics of the per capita CO2 emission variable in order to create policies to be put forward thinking that prevent both environmental pollution and global warming. Because if the CO2 emission variable is in a static structure, the shocks affecting this variable will be temporary. However, if the CO2 emission variable is not in a stable structure, the shocks affecting this variable will be permanent and the variable deviating from the trend value will not return to its old trend.The aim of this study is to investigate whether the per capita CO2 emission for selected countries of Europe converges to the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe. In this context, the second section of the research includes the literature, and the third section includes the econometric method. Empirical findings including the data set are presented in the fourth section. Last section, the results obtained from the study are discussed. In this paper, whether the CO2 emissions converge among European countries or not has been inquired within the frame of convergence hypothesis under Fourier cointegration test which was developed by Tsong et al. (2016). In this context, annual data concerning Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and England for the period of 1965-2019 were used with addition of annual data concerning Europe’s average CO2 emissions. This paper is the first study in the literature to test whether the CO2 emission is convergent within the frame of the convergence hypothesis under the Fourier cointegration method. As stated in the results of the Tsong et al. (2016) Fourier Cointegration test, a cointegrated relationship was found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Austria, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Turkey and the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe. Based on these results, it has been determined that there is a convergence between the per capita CO2 emissions of these countries and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. On the other hand, no cointegrated relationship has been found between the per capita CO2 emissions of Cyprus, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, UK and the average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe. Therefore, no convergence was determined between these countries and average per capita CO2 emissions of Europe.It can be concluded that there is no problem with the environmental pollution policy for the countries that are close to the average per capita CO2 emission of Europe and that they carry out policies in accordance with the European criteria. Contrary to this situation, it is suggested that for countries that are not convergent to Europe’s average per capita CO2 emissions, they should focus on environmental pollution policies and approach the average by adopting different policies apart from the ones they follow.&nbsp;

Avrupa Ülkelerinde CO2 Emisyonu Yakınsamasının Fourier  Koentegrasyon Testi ile Analizi

Burcu

Öğretim Görevlisi

Especially in recent years, it is seen that the real estate sector has an important place in the economy and affects macroeconomic balances. Housing supply and demand are affected by seasonal factors and affect the market. For this reason, it is very important to make the estimations for the real estate sector by choosing methods that produce strong statistical results that can capture the seasonal effects. Artificial neural networks are at the top of these powerful statistical techniques. Artificial neural networks are frequently preferred by researchers in the prediction of economic data and prospective forecasts especially in recent years. It can be said that the reason why artificial neural networks are preferred in contrast to traditional systems is the advantages offered to researchers. At the beginning of these advantages, it can be said that artificial neural networks can work with an unlimited number of variables and parameters, and can make generalizations and predictions with the help of the data shown to it. Thanks to these advantages, it can be said that artificial neural networks can be frequently used in the estimation of economic data in the coming years.In this study, artificial neural networks have been preferable due to superior features and Turkey’s estimated sales value and forecasts of housing was conducted. Monthly data covering the periods of 2013: 01-2019: 12 were analyzed in the MATLAB R2013a program. As a result of the research conducted in the literature for the analysis, housing-price index, new housing-price index, non-new housingprice index, housing sales to foreigners, interest rates opened by banks to housing loans over TL, consumer price index and exchange rate were selected as independent variables and sales of housing. used as a dependent variable. NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogeneus) network was first trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt back-propagation algorithm (trainlm) in the model, which has ten independent variables, one dependent variable and 924 data in total. 90% of the data was randomly allocated for education, 5% for validity and 5% for testing, as it gave the best results as a result of the trials. The number of hidden layers is chosen as 10, while the number of lags is taken as 5. Mean Squared Error (MSE) was chosen as the performance criterion.As a result of the analysis, since the NARX network uses historical values in the studies to be predicted and the number of delays is taken as 5, the estimation of the first five values in the data set has been estimated. When the results produced by the neural network in Turkey real value of residential sales values compared to each other, which is very close and has been found to be quite small measure of performance of the value of MSE. In the second stage of the analysis prediction of Turkey’s housing sales value for the period of 2020:01 were made. When the real value of the period related to the value produced by artificial neural networks as a result of the prediction is compared, it has been determined that the predictive performance of artificial neural networks is also quite good. The results of the analysis confirm that the artificial neural networks can achieve seasonal effects in predicting and forecasting the house sales and producing strong statistical results in accordance with the literature. Although the results of the study are expected to contribute to the literature, the study has some limitations. This gives the number of studies in order to overcome the limitations, frequency and number of arguments can be increased and a traditional time series method can also be included in the study a model comparison made Turkey’s housing sales Values, estimates that the most powerful model can be determined.&nbsp;

Türkiye’nin Konut Satışı Değerlerinin Yapay Sinir Ağları İle Öngörülmesi

Fatih

Ayça

Assist. Prof.

The term blockchain was first used in an article published by Satoshi Nakamoto (2008). Blockchain can be defined as a system that keeps all transactions of the users of a system in the network through verification. The database of this system consists of controllable and reliable transactions composed of blocks. The concept of block can be expressed as the storage of data in the blockchain system. The emergence of the blockchain technology led to the creation of cryptocurrencies, which became increasingly popular because of their fast and secure transactions, elimination of middlemen, and low costs. Inflation rates increased, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, with several countries increasing money printing. Therefore, the use of cryptocurrencies continues to increase because with limited total supply, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are not affected by inflation. Although cryptocurrencies are not affected by inflation, they are highly volatile owing to several factors.Financial time series can be analyzed using various methods. From a historical perspective, financial time series analyses have primarily used linear models. Over time, nonlinear models have been developed, considering that linear models are insufficient to explain the data. Various sub-models of nonlinear models have also been introduced to the literature in the process. Among these models, conditional heteroskedasticity models are frequently used. When it was first proposed, no successful results could be obtained because conditional heteroskedasticity models did not consider asymmetry. Therefore, conditional heteroskedasticity models that included asymmetry were developed. Better results are obtained by considering asymmetry in financial time series, because it is known that the effect of negative and positive shocks in financial time series returns on volatility is not always the same. This factor is considered with asymmetric models.Several studies have used conditional heteroskedasticity models for analyzing volatility structures. In this study, cryptocurrencies, which are considered novel and significant part of the world money markets, are analyzed with conditional heteroskedasticity models. In this study, symmetric conditional heteroskedasticity models, such as Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean (ARCH-M), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M), and Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity(IGARCH), and asymmetric models, such as The Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH), The Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TGARCH), The Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (APARCH), and Asymmetric Component Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ACGARCH), are discussed. In this study, unit root test, Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH LM) test were applied, respectively. Then, using symmetric and asymmetric conditional heteroskedasticity models, the volatility of cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, LTC, BCH, LINK, XLM, TRX, and DOGE were estimated. Depending on the estimations, the models that yielded significant results were evaluated according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)and Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) information criteria and Log Likelihood (LL) values.In traditional linear regression models, it is assumed that the variance in the estimated model will be constant over time. However, it is seen that the error term variance can change over time due to use of variables such as stocks, inflation rate, cryptocurrencies, and exchange rates in financial time series. This is called the heteroskedasticity. To be able to analyze with conditional heteroskedasticity models, some steps should be followed. The first step is to test whether there is an autocorrelation problem in the data to be analyzed and to use ARMA(p,q) models if necessary. In the second step, the ARCH LM test is applied to the residuals by developing the mean equation to test the ARCH effect in the series. Finally, in the third step, if there is an ARCH effect in the residuals because of the ARCH LM test, the estimation is made using appropriate conditional heteroskedasticity models. After evaluating the estimation results of the established model, it should be revised if necessary. Conditional heteroskedasticity models are divided into symmetric and asymmetric. While symmetric models assume that positive and negative shocks on volatility have the same effect, asymmetric models are based on the assumption that this effect is different.Among the models used in the study, better results were obtained with EGARCH(1,1), TGARCH(1,1), and ACGARCH(1,1) models. Thus, positive shocks have more effect on volatility in the ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, XLM, TRX, and DOGE return series, while negative shocks have more effect on BTC, ADA, and LINK return series.&nbsp;

Kripto Para Birimlerinin Volatilite Yapılarının Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Semanur

Assoc. Prof.

Sevgi

Improvement of the living standards and increase in the wealth of the members of the society in a country is mounting evidence of the existence of strong growth. On the other hand, the distribution of this wealth among the various social groups in a society is an important sign of inclusiveness of growth. Inclusive growth, differentiating based on the structural properties of the countries, is a kind of growth that distribute the wealth to all layers of the society and that poses all elements of wealth in a fairyway. In inclusive growth, each member of society associates the growth process regardless of individual properties. Hence, it becomes necessary to adopt growth strategies that include equal opportunities for everyone to attend the growth process and to make use of this growth. Thus, the benefit will be distributed equally among all parts of the of society.In the present study, the inclusiveness of growth in Turkey is examined the 2006- 2019 period. The study aims to observe the change of inclusiveness of the growth and analyze the current situation of NUTS regions in terms of inclusive growth. In the present study, social opportunity functions developed by Ali and Son (2007) are used to measure the inclusiveness of the growth. Ali and Son (2007) explain the social opportunity function an analogy of social welfare functions. Hereunder, inclusive growth is the maximization of social opportunity function. Thus, we calculated the equity index of opportunity by following the methodology developed by Ali and Son (2007) and analyzed the convergence of this index with panel unitroot tests for NUTS Regions. Within this scope, we first obtained ‘Distribution of annual equivalised household disposable income by deciles ordered by equivalised household disposable income’ data for Turkey and NUTS Level 1 Regions for the 2006-2019 periods. Afterward, we deflated the data which is in current values, and applied the method developed by Ali and Son (2007). As a result of this method, we obtained an equity index of opportunities for Turkey in general and 12 regions of NUTS Level 1. First of all, we tested the existence of cross-section dependency in the series and confirmed it. Then, we applied Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) unit-root test, a second-generation unit-root test used in case of cross-section dependency, to test the existence of convergence. We tested the convergence of ‘the equity index of opportunities series of each region’ both to Turkey level and also to TR4 East Marmara region, which has the highest performance.&nbsp;First, we aimed to reveal how inclusiveness of growth changes from year to year by examining opportunity curves. Accordingly, the opportunity curve of the year 2008, which is the first year of global crisis, is completely below the opportunity curve of 2007. We observed a rise in the opportunity curve of 2009, but this rise is associated with an increase in average income but a decrease in equity of opportunities. We especially observed deterioration in opportunity curves after 2016.The equity index of opportunity for Turkey, in general, has an increasing trend. As a result of the convergence analysis of NUTS level 1 regions to Turkey level, we found no convergence. There is an increasing trend in the equity index of opportunity in NUTS Level 1 regions with two exceptions: TR1 Istanbul and TR2 West Marmara regions. The equity index of opportunity has decreasing trend within these two regions. The highest index values among 12 regions belong to the TR4 East Marmara region and the TR9 East Blacksea region follows it. As a result of the convergence analysis to the TR4 East Marmara region, we found that the TRC South-East Anatolian region converges to the TR4 East Marmara region in terms of equity index of opportunity.&nbsp;

Türkiye'de İBBS Düzey 1 Bölgelerinde Kapsayıcı Büyüme Açısından  Yakınsamanın İncelenmesi

Sema

Humans, defined as biological, psychological, social, and cultural beings, are born with various biological characteristics, like their sex. Some of them are shaped by genetic transition, some of them are shaped by the environment in which they live, and some are shaped by the psychological traits of their own persona and the social and cultural conditions of the society in which they live. In this context, each person is unique, with their identity shaped by their personality traits as well as the sociocultural and socioeconomic environment in which they live, as well as their biological characteristics.With all these features that we have tried to explain above, a human is a member of the family, which is the smallest social institution, and a member of society in the broadest sense. Therefore, as a result of living in society, it is exposed to positive and negative effects, guidance, encouragement, and criticism at social and cultural levels throughout its life and it has to live in accordance with social and cultural norms adopted by the society. In this context, people are expected to dress, behave, and socialize according to the requirements of the social and cultural environment in which they live.Gender is one of the main traits that characterizes human beings, and when it comes to gender, the first thing that comes to mind is the innate state of being male or female. However, the concept of social gender includes much more than innate male and female biological characteristics. In the biological sense, the distinction of individuals as male and female is reinforced by the gender roles assigned to the individual on the social plane from the first years of life. Society shapes the two sexes by assigning them social duties, roles, and forms of behavior. In this context, society builds gender on biological sex by suggesting, directing, and criticizing men and women on many issues such as how they dress, how they behave, what is considered normal and abnormal for them, what is expected of them, and what they will be held accountable for.The two sexes, which are born as equals, stop being equal as a result of the roles determined by society and the duties and responsibilities imposed by it, and gender inequality thus emerges. Furthermore, this gender inequality is to the detriment of women. This lack of balance causes women to be pushed into the living space, which is defined as the private space and which is limited to family and friends.It is seen that the public sphere is taken as a reference while trying to define the social existence, identity, and actions of women. In many ways, such as attire, behavior, attitude, etc. the public sphere is where women are exposed to much more social pressures and limitations than men. In other words, the public sphere causes women to face various limitations and pressures in the living spaces where they are visible. These limitations and pressures cause them to feel that they are under social or societal pressure in a wide area, from their clothing to their speech and smiles, from their behavior to their socialization, and even to the hours they can be outside.When evaluated in general, the limitations and pressures experienced by women in the public sphere are not only caused by men. They also originate from women who have been brought up with the value judgements of the society, whose gender perception has been determined and adopted according to a conservative understanding, and who do not question the social order in which they live. For this reason, the oppression and restrictions on women have the characteristics of social or societal pressure.Social pressure is the behavioral and spiritual sanction power that society creates on people, and it emerges when a society tries to ensure that all individuals assimilate to the thoughts and behavior patterns it has adopted.&nbsp;Although social pressure is felt on all individuals in the society, it is more effective on women, depending on the perception of gender. In underdeveloped or developing countries and traditional societies where gender inequality is evident, the social pressure that women are exposed to is more widespread and severe.The Life Satisfaction Survey is carried out every year by the Turkish Statistical Institute, and questions are also included in the survey in order to determine the social pressure that the participants feel about various issues.In this study, the questions asked in order to determine the social pressure that the participants felt about gender, marital status, and attire were based on questions mentioned in the Life Satisfaction Survey…, and the relationship between the social pressure felt and the demographic characteristics of individuals, especially gender, were analyzed with logistic regression models.As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that women are exposed to social pressure at a much higher rate than men in terms of their gender, marital status, and attire. This situation can be accepted as an indicator of gender inequality between men and women.Furthermore, it is understood that the pressure felt regarding gender and marital status is higher in individuals who have never been married or divorced, and that the pressure regarding attire is especially high in individuals who have never been married.In terms of education and age groups, it is seen that the pressure regarding gender and clothing is higher at younger ages, the pressure regarding gender and marital status increases as the education level increases, and the pressure felt regarding clothing is higher especially for people with a higher level of education (master’s degree, etc.).As a result, women feel that they are exposed to more social pressure than men in terms of gender, marital status, and attire. When evaluated in general, it is seen that social pressure is felt more in terms of gender, marital status, and dress at younger ages, and social pressure is felt more as the education level increases.&nbsp;

Toplumsal Cinsiyet Eşitsizliği ve Toplumsal Baskı: Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu Yaşam Memnuniyeti Araştırması Üzerine Analizler

Suna

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, Ticari Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Seçilmiş Ülkeler ve Türkiye Örneği

Melike

OECD Ülkelerinde İşsizliğin Histeri ve Doğal Oran Çerçevesinde  İncelenmesi: Alternatif Panel Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar

Sibel

Gizem

When infant deaths in Turkey are examined, it can be seen that these deaths have decreased over time. However, this decrease is still not at the desired levels. Although Turkey is among the top developing countries in terms of manpower and economic resources, infant mortality has not shown a parallel decline. In addition to being a health indicator, infant mortality is undoubtedly one of the most important indicators of human development. There is a strong relationship between the level of development of the society and infant mortality. As the level of development increases, infant mortality decreases. It changes with regional development in countries, and it is important to measure this change statistically and econometrically. This study examines the factors affecting the number of infant deaths among married women between the ages of 15 and 49 through count data regression models using 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) Syrian Migrant and Turkey Sample data—implemented by the Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies— and determines the best analysis method by comparing models.Statistical analysis of count variables has a very long history. In regression models using count data, the dependent variable takes an integer value greater than zero. Among the count data regression models, the Poisson regression model is the simplest. This model offers features where the conditional mean of the output is equal to the conditional variance. The Negative Binomial model is a special case of the Poisson regression model and is used as an alternative method in practice as a result of over-dispersion. The Zero-Inflated Poisson and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model is used in datasets where the value of zero is excessive and there is overdispersion. In this study where infant deaths were expressed as a count variable, the existence of over-dispersion was detected, and the Negative Binomial regression model was determined to be the most suitable model after comparing the Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models.The dependent variable used in the analyses in this study was the number of infant deaths, with the ages ranging from 0 to 1. The explanatory factors affecting infant deaths were education levels, working status of the mother and father, region, place of residence, mother's age at first birth, household size, family planning, ideal number of children, relationship between the relatives, use of a contraceptive method, stillbirths, duration of marriage, risk factors for infant death, number of migrations, smoking status, sporting status, desire for more infants, and multiple births. In this study where infant deaths were expressed as a count variable, the existence of overdispersion was detected and the Negative Binomial regression model was determined to be the most suitable model after comparing the Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models. The findings of this study showed the differences in infant mortality for the TDHS Syrian The dependent variable used in the analyses in this study was the number of infant deaths, with the ages ranging from 0 to 1. The explanatory factors affecting infant deaths were education levels, working status of the mother and father, region, place of residence, mother's age at first birth, household size, family planning, ideal number of children, relationship between the relatives, use of a contraceptive method, stillbirths, duration of marriage, risk factors for infant death, number of migrations, smoking status, sporting status, desire for more infants, and multiple births. In this study where infant deaths were expressed as a count variable, the existence of overdispersion was detected and the Negative Binomial regression model was determined to be the most suitable model after comparing the Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression models. The findings of this study showed the differences in infant mortality for the TDHS Syrian

Bebek Ölümlerini Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine Sayma Veri Regresyon  Modellerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

İsmail

Tuğba

Economic and security concerns are among the leading factors that cause migration. According to the United Nations (UN), more than 280 million people engaged in international migration in 2020. UN data indicate that more than half (52%) of those who migrated in 2020 targeted developed countries. This circumstance highlights the urgency of considering the economic consequences of migration in these countries. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of migration on economic growth and unemployment in OECD countries for the period 2000–2019.Two models are constructed for the analyses in this study. In the first model, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents economic growth, whereas the unemployment rate is the dependent variable in the second model. The level of migration is the independent variable in both models. A capital variable is also included in the models for better demonstration.Before performing the analyses, multiple linear correlation tests are performed to investigate correlations between independent variables. Accordingly, Spearman Correlation Analysis and Variance Inflation Factor Analysis (VIF) were applied, revealing no correlation. Cross-section dependence was subsequently investigated on a panel and variable basis, confirming the presence of cross-section dependence, which suggests that second generation unit root tests are preferred. The tests revealed that the variables in question stagnate at different levels. These results indicate that panel ARDL analysis is appropriate for analyzing the relationship between migration, economic growth, and unemployment.An ARDL analysis estimator is determined based on the Hausman test, with both models using these test results in a pooled in-group estimator. Analysis results for the first model reveal a long-term and statistically significant relationship between migration and economic growth, wherein 1% increase in migration level is associated with a 0.43% increase in GDP. The second model indicates a long-term and statistically significant relationship between migration and unemployment, i.e., 1% increase in migration level appears to decrease unemployment by 0.53%. Panel VECM causality analyses confirm one-way relationships from migration to GDP and from migration to unemployment. These results indicate that migration has an impact on both economic growth and unemployment.Notably, Boubtane et al. (2013) (22 OECD countries) and Damette and Fromentin’s (2013) (14 OECD countries) conducted investigations regarding migration in OECD countries; such investigation is within the scope of this study and draw similar conclusions to the current research. This study is also compatible with the results of Friedburg and Hunt (1995), Islam (2007), Bashier and Siam (2014), Škuflić and Vučković (2018), and Esposito (2020). In this context, the results of this study are generally compatible with the literature.Based on this study and previous research findings, it can be asserted that migration in OECD countries in the period 2000–2019 contributed to economic growth due to the addition of qualified manpower and investments in target countries, reducing unemployment by establishing employment opportunities. Accordingly, considering that migration provides economic growth and reduces unemployment, it is essential for future studies to examine the nature of the individuals migrating at an empirical level to determine appropriate policies.&nbsp;

Göçün Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Büyüme ve İstihdam Piyasası Üzerine  Etkileri: Bir Panel ARDL Analizi

Havva

Exchange Rate Volatility in the Covid-19 Period: An Analysis Using  the Markov-Switching ARCH Model

Burak

Kübra

Süleyman

Risk and return are the two most important parameters in stock investment. Rational investors are expected to prefer the share with the highest expected returns when their risks are the same, and they are expected to prefer the share with the lowest risk when their expected returns are equal. Risk of a financial asset can be defined as the possibility of losing money, that is, the probability that actual results differ from expected results. Therefore, risk is measured based on the volatility of the return measured by variance or standard deviation. The risk of stock may result from either external factors such as economic, geopolitical, and financial factors, or companyspecific internal factors. Systematic risk is inherent to the economy and /or market, and is generally assumed as being difficult to avoid. On the other hand, unsystematic risk is the risk that is related to company, and it is assumed as diversifiable. Since unsystematic risk is diversifiable, finance theory is focused on systematic risk. After Markowitz and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), systematic risk is measured by beta which is a measure of the volatility of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole.Financial ratios are also important in analyzing the health and success of a company. Generally, by ratios analysis, we shed light on liquidity, profitability, growth, financial structure, operational performance, and market situation of the company. Since these ratios are the key factors in determining the performance of a company, they should also play a role in the riskiness of the company. Therefore, we choose the Beta coefficient, as a proxy for systematic risk; and current ratio, ratio of total debts, cash-to-cash cycle, return on equity, and market value/book value to represent the different dimensions of performance.CAPM is based on a rational investor who constructs an optimum portfolio. However, Kahneman ve Tversky (1979)’s Prospect Theory showed that investors may not be so rational, and they generally decide based on some psychological factors called heuristics. These biases also affect our behaviors differently in the case of positive and negative situations.The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of financial ratios on the systematic risk of the companies listed in the Non-Metallic Mineral Products Sector Index of Borsa Istanbul. We used quarterly data of 15 companies for the period of 2005Q1- 2019Q4. Based on findings of behavioral finance the effect of positive and negative movements of financial ratios on Beta coefficient may be asymmetric. Therefore, Panel Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel NARDL) model developed by Shin et. (2014) seems to best fit our study purpose. The NARDL searches whether the asymmetric relationship between financial ratios and systematic risk exists or not; if the asymmetric relationship is found, what is the direction and size of the relationship. It is important for all stakeholders to identify the factors and their directions that affect risk. The short and long-term asymmetric effect of the increase and decrease in financial ratios on risk is reviewed by the Panel NARDL model. Panel NARDL model can be used for small samples, and it allows to capture the cointegration dynamics which cannot be determined by other linear and nonlinear cointegration methods.Results of the study showed that an asymmetrical relationship was found between risk of companies and current ratio, cash-to-cash cycle and market value/book value in the long term; but no asymmetrical relationship is observed between risk and return on equity (roe) and total debt ratio. On the other hand, s symmetric risk-roe and risktotal tebt ratio relationship is observed between variables. In the short run, there was no asymmetrical relationship between risk and financial ratios. The achieved results are important in explaining the factors that effect stock movements.&nbsp;

Asymmetric Relationship Between Risk and Financial Indicators: An Application in BIST Manufacturing Industry

Mustafa

Veysel

The Relationship Between the Health Services Price Index and The  Real Effective Exchange Rate Index in Turkey: A Frequency Domain  Causality Analysis

Gülçin

Furkan

The relations between economic growth and foreign trade have been widely investigated in the econometrics literature. These relationships can be evaluated using causality analysis, the starting point of which is often considered Granger’s (1969) study. The study provides the traditional definition of causality. The Granger causality relationship is obtained from the whole sample. This means that the effects of social, economic, and political shocks cannot be expressed clearly when the causal relationship between variables is evaluated. Therefore, even if structural changes have occurred in the interval of the sample, it may not be possible to identify these changes in the causality relationship.When structural changes impact the value of the variables, methods that help identify these changes should be used. Therefore, this study evaluates two different time-varying causality methods. The first is the time-varying parameters (TVP) causality. According to the TVP method, the effect of structural changes on parameter stability should be evaluated. For this, a joint null hypothesis is used. The joint null hypothesis is tested such that both the parameters are stable and there is no causal relationship. The other method is the recursive evolving window (REW) causality. In the latter method, structural shocks can change the causality relationship, and therefore, causality should be examined in sub-samples.This study evaluated the causality relationship between economic growth, export growth, and import growth in Turkey. First, it examines the relationships with the traditional Granger causality analysis. The study found a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and import growth in the sample. This result indicates that, in fact, increasing income levels cause more attention to be given to information and technology in imports. Further, there is an increase in purchasing power and input requirements.The causality analysis of the whole sample indicates a uniform relationship. The opposite conclusion was based on investigating the effects of structural changes over time. The authors conclude that Turkey should closely follow the events that affect the commercial activities—both within the country and in neighboring countries— to maintain balance between foreign trade and economic growth. Therefore, it is inevitable for Turkey to be affected by the results of structural changes. Therefore, the results of structural changes are the prime subject of this study, and the changes in the causality relationship were observed with time-varying causality methods.Further, this study shows the stability of the parameters while examining the timevarying causality relationship. For this reason, the results of time-varying causality relationships are presented by examining parameter stability, robust standard errors, and consistent estimators under heteroscedasticity.Implementing the TVP method, the results show that the parameters are not stable and that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between import growth and economic growth, and between export growth and economic growth. According to the results of the REW method, there are causality relationships arising from economic growth with both export growth and import growth between 2011–2016. There are also causality relationships from export growth and import growth to economic growth between 2006–2008. Additionally, there are bidirectional causality relationships between import growth and economic growth between 2007–2008 and in 2016. Therefore, even if there is a causal relationship between the variables in different periods, it sharply prevents the rejection of the null hypothesis that there is no causality. These results provide evidence that the causal relationship may change over time.Consequently, according to the results of the time-varying causality relationship, the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Turkey varies intensively between 2006–2008 and 2011–2016. Thus, both the global economic crisis and the European debt crisis have affected Turkey. The estimated parameters while examining the causality relationship did not show stability.&nbsp;

Does Change over Time the Causal Relationship between Economic Growth and Foreign  Trade in Turkey?

Eylem

Gülcan

Using The Analytic Hierarchy Process For Store Manager Selection:  A Real Case Study

Server

Selahattin

Levent

Turgut

Şaban

Turkish society is one of the few in the world that has traditionally used gold as a form of saving and investment. In general, Turkish people acquire gold for marriage, to buy a house, and for the future saving for themselves or their offspring. This gold is typically stored in their houses. “Gold under the Pillow” is gold that is not in any financial system but is held in various locations. In Turkey, there is approximately 3–5 tons of gold that is not involved in the financial system and is so-called “under the pillow.” The gold in question is worth between 200–300 billion dollars. The coronavirus disease-19 pandemic has hampered economies world-wide, including Turkey. The Turkish economy will recover if the gold financial system, which is hidden beneath the aforementioned pillow, is incorporated.Concurrent with the advancements in the banking system, the integration of various investment instruments into the banking system has also improved. In this regard, a similar situation was observed with gold, which is one of the most important investment and saving tools. Although the relationship between gold and the bank has a long history, the gold banking system has become more comprehensive as a result of technological and systematic advancements in the banking system. Therefore, the idea of banks to assess individual gold saving has continued to gain interest. However, despite this interest in banks, an individual’s interest in gold banking is not at the desired level.In this study, the individual’s awareness regarding gold banking and their choice to utilize the gold banking system were investigated. The study aims to discover the factors that influence the decisions of individuals on whether or not to utilize the gold banking system. Thus, individual data within the Istanbul area were obtained via questionnaires and were examined. The findings highlight the fact that most participants have yet to use the gold banking system. To analyze the reasons for this situation, factor analysis was used and the main factors were identified. Next, considering the asymmetrical distribution in the use of gold banking, the Gompit Model, one of the qualitative preference models, was calculated and the main factors&nbsp;that influence the decisions of individuals about gold banking were discovered. According to the results, the primary reason why individuals do not utilize gold banking is a lack of knowledge about the system. Most participants claimed that they might utilize the system to get educated about the gold banking system. Another critical aspect is the distrust in banks and the reliability of keeping gold under the pillow. It was noted that individuals who regard gold as an investment or security were more likely to utilize the gold banking system. Another promising point is that the systems returns are higher. It has been determined that individuals may be more willing to use the system if gold banking provides more profits. Furthermore, it was discovered that individuals with larger savings are more inclined to use the gold banking system.Based on the result, it can be concluded that the essential policies to be implemented to incorporate the “under the pillow” gold in the system should focus on better educating individuals and developing their confidence in banks. Individuals who wish to use gold as a means of investment and savings will include their gold in the system, and the gold “under the pillow” will be included into the economy, if they have an adequate understanding of gold banking and do not have a negative attitude toward banks.&nbsp;

Applications of “Under the Pillow” Gold in Turkey

Lecturer

Ferda

Spatial Econometric Models and The Analysis of the Determinants  of Internal Migration in Turkey

Umut

Nilhun

In contemporary economic inquiry and public policy, the concept of innovation has gained more significance compared with previous years. One reason for this is countries’ efforts to leverage the phenomenon of globalization in their interests. Countries can integrate into the global economy and increase gross national income through innovation that will turn globalization to their favor. Innovation is of substantial significance for businesses’ growth and longevity. It is one of the primary factors required for business survival and sustained development in the global economy. Because of globalization, companies must be more creative and exploratory in the face of increasing competition and scientific and technological development. Companies’ survival now depends on their level of innovation and technological development. Innovation activities have a crucial impact on countries’ economic growth and development. It is at the heart of economic growth and development and has strategic importance for policymakers and business leaders to increase national global competitiveness, welfare, and quality of life.Reviewing previous empirical studies on innovation and the factors affecting innovation, a limited number of studies have used multivariate models. Although many studies examine the relationship between innovation and various variables, multivariate linear regression models are predominantly used in these limited studies.This study aims to investigate the factors affecting innovation. A panel VAR model was estimated using a panel dataset for selected OECD countries for the period 1981–2019. The model was estimated using the sample countries’ annual data on the number of domestic patents as the dependent variable and independent variables of GDP, trade openness, foreign direct investment, R&amp;D, and education expenditure. Based on the predicted panel VAR model, a panel Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis were performed, and impulse-response functions were interpreted.The findings of the VAR analyses were threefold: i) The Granger causality test between a causal relationship from the variables of trade openness, foreign direct investment, and R&amp;D and the number of patents. ii) Impulse-response functions indicated that the variables of GDP, trade openness, and R&amp;D expenditure positively affect the number of patents in the short run. iii) A variance decomposition analysis demonstrated that the most crucial variable affecting the number of patents is GDP.According to these findings, GDP, trade openness, foreign direct investment, and R&amp;D expenditure are the primary factors affecting innovation.Considering the results, an increased demand for the innovation process and innovative applications positively affect innovation. Because increased income is measured using GDP, rising foreign trade volume and foreign direct investment&nbsp;inflow are the most significant variables for the increasing innovation demand. The positive effect of increased GDP on innovation is also quite significant in terms of facilitating innovation and R&amp;D financing and support and expanding purchasing power. R&amp;D expenditure was revealed to be the primary mechanism of countries’ innovation level.&nbsp;

Factors Affecting Innovation in OECD Countries

Esra

Can We Increase Health Expenditure Per Capita Through Higher  Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Turkey

Devran

Aziz

This study explores the relationship between HT concentration and income and the validity of the diversification curve. The validity of the resource curse hypothesis for the HT sector is tested. The effect of the country scale and trade volume on concentration in the HT sector is also examined.This research uses empirical methods to analyze the relationship between HT-export concentration and income. Concentration coefficients in the HT sector were calculated using three different indices: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the Gini-Hirschman Index (GHI), and Entropy Index (EI). These indices, which are used to measure the concentration of variables in various subjects in different disciplines, are generally used in the field of economics to measure firm concentration in the markets and geographical concentration in foreign trade. An increase in index values indicates diversification, and a decrease indicates concentration. In the entropy index, the increase indicates diversification, unlike other indices.These data were used in regression analysis as a dependent variable at the next stage. Variables used in the study were obtained from the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS), World Bank (WB), OECD, and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) databases in a sample covering the period 1988- 2017 in 49 countries. The countries included in the sample were predominantly OECD economies. It was found that linear SEK assumptions could not be met in the tests of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and cross-section dependence on panel regression residuals. In consideration of these problems, regression with DriscollKraay (1998) standard errors gives robust results. The F values obtained from the estimates show that the models are generally significant. The stationary regression residuals eliminate the possibility of spurious regression and indicates that the series are cointegrated. The variance inflation factor was calculated to be more diminutive than the critical threshold value (Mean VIF = 2.14 &lt; 10), showing no multicollinearity between variables. Because the variables are used in logarithmic form, the estimated coefficients can be interpreted directly as elasticity.The findings obtained by panel data econometrics in a sample from 1988 to 2017 in 49 countries show that the U-shaped relationship put forward for general export does not apply to HT export. There is no concentration or diversification curve for HT exports. However, the driver of HT-export diversification has been found to be income level. As income levels increase, countries can diversify HT products. A linear and negative relationship was found between export concentrations and income in the HT sector. When the income increases by 1%, the HT-export concentration decreases by approximately 0.14 units compared to the HHI index. In other words, diversity increases.Natural resource wealth is not a hindrance to HT-export diversification, but rather contributes to diversification. This finding suggests that resource abundance does not exclude technological progress and knowledge economy activities. As control variables, country scale and trade volume indicators contribute positively to HT concentration. A 1% increase in the population increases HT-export concentration to 0.47 units according to the HHI index; the increase in openness increases by 0.25 units. In addition, when the interval estimates are examined together with the point estimates, the coefficient signs do not change. This result contradicts the literature put forward for general export. In the rankings of all indices, South Africa, Italy, the United States, Austria, and Germany appear as the countries with the lowest degrees of concentration.The possibilities and limitations of this study fall within the framework of panel data econometrics assumptions. However, the accuracy of the data obtained from the databases constitutes another constraint. The findings are at the country level and do not contain information on sectors and regions.Policy makers aiming at product diversification in the HT industry must first design policies that target and promote income levels. To achieve income growth, the macroeconomic environment such as investment and savings levels, institutional and legal structure, as well as primary production factors (human and physical capital, R&amp;D stock) put forward by growth models must be convenient. Where the resource curse hypothesis is valid, where knowledge economies and technology-intensive activities are restricted and production structure and trade are concentrated in primary goods (natural resources), countries should focus on institutional structure reforms necessary to overcome the vicious cycle. Good management of natural resources and corporate structure will increase the diversification in HT exports.The relationship between HT-export concentration and income has not yet been extensively analyzed according to the level of technology. The present study aims to remark on this point. This aspect makes it will be a pioneering study in the literature. Also, this is the initial study in the literature that tests the validity of the resource curse hypothesis for the HT sector.&nbsp;

An Empirical Analysis of Product Concentration and Income in High-Technology Exports

Seyhun

Ebru

Mutlu

The scientific theory of human-induced climate change is well established and goes back almost two centuries. Solar energy drives the earth’s climate, and the atmosphere is the principal component of the system that maintains the earth’s radiative balance. As a result of human activities such as fossil fuel-based energy consumption and deforestation, heat-intercepting greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere. Capable of absorbing thermal radiation, these greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and affect the radiative balance of the earth. In the period of just two hundred and fifty years after 1750, atmospheric concentrations of the most important greenhouse gases, namely carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have risen by 40%, 150%, and 20%, respectively. As a consequence of the higher quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, global average temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C over the same period. In addition to increasing global temperatures, it is easy to find empirical evidence about anthropogenic climate change in the climate system. Ocean acidification, the increasing heat of the oceans, rise in sea levels, destruction of coral reefs, melting ice sheets, and retreating glaciers are listed among the most critical impacts of climate change. The scientific consensus on climate change can be found in the climate science literature. According to the most quoted evidence of the consensus among scientists, 97% of the scientific papers published in scientific journals accept that climate change is occurring, and the main cause is human activity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is the leading scientific authority on climate change, states, in its 5th climate assessment report (2013), that the “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased…It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century…”The picture emerging in the scientific field shows that the sustainable solution to climate change lies primarily in reducing human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The key document signed in the international arena on climate change is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was signed in 1992. In Article 2 of the Convention, it is stated that the ultimate goal of the UNFCCC “is to fix the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent a dangerous human intervention to the climate system.” Conversely, the distinction between developed and developing countries, especially in terms of responsibilities regarding greenhouse gas reduction has become an important problem to be overcome in international negotiations. For example, in Article 3 of the UNFCCC, which lists the basic principles to be followed to achieve the ultimate goal, concepts such as equity, development, precaution, and sustainability are highlighted. According to these principles, “the climate system should be protected for the benefit of present and future generations and by the principle of equity.” As a requirement of the principle of equity, the responsibilities of developed and developing countries should be common but following differentiated responsibilities and respective abilities.Within the Kyoto Protocol, which was negotiated within the scope of the UNFCCC and signed in 1998 and whose implementation period started in 2005, developed countries committed to cutting their average greenhouse gas emissions by 5%. The distinction between developed and developing countries in terms of emission reduction commitments has been one of the most prominent aspects of the Kyoto Protocol. Another internationally important document, signed in 2015, is the Paris Agreement. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, in the Paris Agreement, the main target is to hold the increase in average temperatures in the twenty-first century to well below 2 °C compared to the pre-industrial period. In addition to the 2 °C target, it is decided that efforts should be pursued to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol in which countries aim to participate in an emission reduction target determined at the international level, the parties in the Paris Agreement set a target according to themselves. Although it is presented as a single agreement, the Paris Agreement consists of different national commitments prepared and announced by the parties, in line with their own conditions. Although international participation against climate change has been achieved in the agreement, it is seen that the de facto distinction between developed and developing countries in the UNFCCC is maintained.The fact that there are developed and developing countries among the G20 countries, including Turkey, makes it possible to analyze the political divergence in the fight against climate change since the UNFCCC. However, the fact that the G20 countries constitute 63% of the world’s population, 80% of the national income, 78% of the energy supply, and 81% of the fossil-fuel based carbon dioxide emissions as of 2017 helps to interpret the results of the analysis in terms of the world. The cluster analysis based on per capita income and carbon dioxide emissions show that the gap between developed and developing countries did not close in the 1990-2017 period. The increase in the total emissions of countries such as China and India is remarkable. However, within the G20, developed countries’ per capita emissions are still relatively high compared to developing countries. As a global environmental problem, human-induced climate change requires the participation of all countries. However, demographic, economic, and technological differences between countries indicate that achieving global cooperation is not as easy as desired. The sustainable solution or management of climate change necessitates reducing these differences between countries. At this point, the aim should not only be to put pressure on developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions but also to build a structure that helps developing countries to gain the institutional, economic, and technological capability and capacity they need in the fight against climate change.&nbsp;

K-Means Cluster Analysis Based on Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions: The G20  Example

Serkan

Necati

An index can be defined in statistical research as a measure of change in a representative sample of individual data points, or as a composite measure that combines many indicators. Indices, sometimes known as composite indicators, are used to summarize and categorize individual data. In this manner, the researcher can evaluate the subject under investigation using criteria, such as good to poor, strong to weak, remote close, and make conclusions regarding the study subject. In this research, a new index ranking calculation is proposed using economic freedom data. In the proposed method, a hybrid approach was presented, in which spatial econometrics, fuzzy C-means from fuzzy clustering analysis methods, and COPRAS methods from multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) methods are used together. The purpose of this strategy is to calculate a sorting method with spatial connection coefficients as input, fuzzy C-means, and data as the output of the process and COPRAS method.The subject of economic freedom is a concept that covers the entire concepts of freedom of choice, exchange, and competition, and protection of property. In other words, economic independence may be defined as an individual managing their property and labor without regard for the constraints imposed by the state or other groups. It is the most basic right of individuals to engage in economic activities using their rights over their property within legal frameworks and gains as a result of these activities in the areas they desire. Governments should also protect people’s property rights and enable free movement of labor, capital, products, and services that enable activities like production, consumption, and investment. There are independent organizations, such as the Fraser Institute, The Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, and Freedom House that work on measuring economic freedom around the world. With the studies they issue each year, these organizations examine the state of countries in terms of economic freedom. Governments and business companies may monitor the changes in the nations of interest for each year and accordingly launch or amend their investments based on these reports released under various data categories.Spatial econometrics is a subscience of econometrics that focuses on combining spatial influence with econometric methods. This discipline of study is primarily concerned with spatial effects, which show the pattern of spatial decoupling. The interaction between the geographic domain, which is described in terms of spaces, horizontal cross section dependency, which is a subset of spatial dependence, and cross sectional heterogeneity, which is a subset of spatial heterogeneity, may result in. The dependency structure can be related to distance and location, and this structure can be seen in a geographical area, as well as in an economic or social network area.&nbsp;Clustering analysis is one of the most widely used methods in classification studies. Clustering analysis is a method for classifying the units analyzed in research by grouping them according to their resemblance, identifying the common qualities of the units, and making broad assumptions about these classes. The purpose here is to categorize ungrouped data based on similarities and assist the researcher in obtaining relevant and valuable summary information. Fuzzy clustering is recommended as an appropriate method if the sets are not fully and precisely separated from each other or there are suspicious situations in which set some observations are elements.Fuzzy sets, collections of observations in which the membership record is specified between 0 and 1, decide each observation function. Observations that have a high degree of membership in the same cluster are quite comparable. Each observation does not have to be included in only one set in fuzzy clustering. In this method, observations belong to clusters with certain degrees of membership, and information about the observations’ membership to other clusters is obtained.MCDM methods are used when it is necessary to assess a large number of alternatives under a large number of criteria.Individuals, corporations, and organizations encounter multidimensional choice challenges in their daily lives. Managers frequently make judgments when several factors and competing goals (criteria) must be met. MCDM techniques consist of approaches and methods that try to reach a possible “best/appropriate” solution that meets multiple conflicting criteria. Decision-makers can make scientific and more successful decisions using MCDM techniques to overcome such problems.A hybrid technique integrating geographical econometrics, fuzzy clustering analysis, and MCDM was developed in this work for a unified measure ranking of the quality of political–economic institutions in various jurisdictions, such as economic liberties. The proposed method was calculated on the Heritage Foundation economic freedom data and compared for the years 2019, 2020, and 2021. The suggested method’s rankings for three separate eras were calculated as 88.6%, 91.7%, and 92.7%, with correlation values with the original Heritage Foundation rankings. These high correlation values were also found to be significant at 1%. The high correlation values of the findings acquired in the index sorting research developed to suggest that the proposed hybrid approach may then be employed in additional index computations, according to the results.&nbsp;

Hybrid Ranking Proposal Based on Spatial Econometrics: An Example of European  Economic Freedoms

Mehmet

Hatice

The natural resource factor is one of the most important sources of economic growth. As the effects of environmental problems, particularly global warming, worsen, the environmental damage, the effects on future generations, and the methods used in production activities have begun to be discussed by countries attempting to meet their economic targets. The increase in mass production and urbanization has increased the energy required to sustain economic activity, which has been met by the use of fossil fuels. Such fossil fuel use increases the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, with the energy sector being the most significant contributor. Because of the global nature of the problem, some steps have been taken to reduce emissions and prevent environmental pollution for sustainable development. In this context, international agreements to reduce emissions, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, have been signed, and environmental policies have been developed. The emergence of environmental problems has increased the interest of researchers in this field. Moreover, many studies have examined the relationship between environmental factors and economic growth and made policy recommendations for sustainable development. The environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis has been used to analyze the relationship between emissions and growth in the majority of the related literature. However, Gill et al. (2018) claimed that the results of EKC analysis were extremely sensitive to the period chosen and the model specification. When new variables are added to the model, the results of the EKC hypothesis may change, causing different turning points in the curve. Müller-Fürstenberger and Wagner (2007) and Aslanidis (2009) both criticized the EKC hypothesis. In light of the EKC hypothesis reviews, the present study analyzed the relationship between the variables from an asymmetric perspective using the variables’ cumulative positive and negative shocks.The current study examined the short- and long-run asymmetric causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Turkey using annual data from 1960 to 2018. In this context, Hatemi-J (2012) examined short-run asymmetric causality between variables, whereas Granger and Yoon (2002) examined long-run asymmetric relationships using hidden cointegration. The result of the short-run analysis reveals that decreases in emissions reduce economic growth in the short run. Moreover, the positive developments in economic growth increase emissions in the long run. Furthermore, positive movements in economic growth leads to an increase in emissions in the long run. Another significant finding is that the negative growth development increases the increase in emissions in long run. Moreover, asymmetric causality exists from negative growth shocks to positive emissions shocks in the long run.Meanwhile, examining crouching error correction estimation results, we determined that positive and negative shocks in economic growth are permanent components, whereas positive and negative shocks in emissions are transitory. In other words, positive or negative developments (positive or negative shocks) in growth affect both itself and emissions, thus determining long-run relationship dynamics between the variables. Meanwhile, positive or negative shocks in emissions affect only themselves and are impermanent in the long run.Positive and/or negative developments in economic growth constantly increase emissions. Therefore, to ensure sustainable development and reduce emissions emitted into the atmosphere, stakeholders must increase the use of renewable energy resources, expand the use of clean technology, and pave the way for environmental policies to be developed.&nbsp;

Analysis of Asymmetric Causality Between Growth and Emissions in Turkey

Oğuzhan

Öğretim Görevlisi Dr.

In this globalized world, supply and demand are on the rise, where access to international markets is easier than ever because of the advances in technology. With easier access to markets, countries got into fierce competition involving their companies operating on a global scale. This phenomenon puts companies and thus countries into a competition with no limits. Examining the countries that gained independence after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990 and were described as Transition Economies in the 1994 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be helpful in determining if they are capable of competing with other countries while also providing them with necessary policy recommendations. Transition economies, particularly those on the European continent, have the potential to compete with European Union (EU) countries in foreign trade owing to their relatively more developed position in terms of economy and their geographical proximity to EU countries.This study analyzed whether the foreign trade-driven competitive power of the 13 transition economies (i.e., Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia) converges toward that of the 14 main European Union countries (EU14) for the period of 1993:M01–2021:M08. These countries are either members or candidates for the EU, and their data are entirely accessible. The study used the Fourier panel unit root test with sharp and smooth breaks developed by Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2014).&nbsp;Foreign trade-driven competitive power can be measured using different indicators. In this study, it was measured based on the real effective exchange rate for relative prices. As part of the analysis, first, the presence of a cross-sectional dependence among transition economies was examined using the tests developed by Breusch and Pagan (1980) LM, Pesaran (2004) LMS, and Baltagi, Feng and Kao (2012) LMBC. A cross-sectional dependence was observed among these countries. Then, the panel unit root test was applied, which was developed by Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2014), by considering the cross-sectional dependence among countries. According to individual analyses, transition economies, except for Croatia, were found to be in a closer position to EU14 countries in terms of foreign trade-driven competitive power. Considering the presence of sharp and smooth structural breaks in series, other analyses on the overall panel revealed that the 13 transition economies, included in the panel, converge toward EU14 countries in terms of foreign trade-driven competitive power. Moreover, the testing method was able to successfully determine the sharp and smooth structural breaks in these countries. The findings of this study show that transition economies that joined the EU at a later stage or are candidates for the EU have successfully carried out the EU harmonization process. Conversely, the EU is providing financial and technical support to these now-member or candidate countries to increase their production level and foreign trade volume while simultaneously enhancing their foreign trade-driven competitive power.&nbsp;

Does the Foreign Trade-Driven Competitive Power of Transition Economies Converge  Toward that of EU14 Countries? Evidence from Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Sharp  and Smooth Breaks

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@JOURNAL_BOX_EARLYVIEW

Gökçe

Nowadays, there are many investment tools in the financial markets to assess the savings of individual investors. The diversity of investment instruments in the market makes it difficult for investors to make decisions about evaluating savings. Furthermore, developments and uncertainties in the economy affect the individual investor’s investment decision. In the economy, individuals use part of their income for consumption expenditures and savings. Individuals who make savings are evaluated byvarious investment instruments in order to make a profit. In this process, the main objective of investors is to obtain the highest return with minimum risk. Investors evaluate their savings in investment instruments with a certain expectation of return. The existence of many investment instruments in the economy reveals the issue of which investment instrument the investor should use. A balanced distribution of investor accumulation in multiple investment instruments instead of a single investment instrument will provide protection against fluctuations in the markets. Throughout the history of finance, studies have been conducted on how markets affect individual investment preferences. Investors follow the political, economic and social situations in the markets to make the right investment decision. There are many investment tools for transferring the idle resources to the financial system. Financial investment instruments provide the opportunity for individuals who make savings to protect their capital and earn money. For this reason, financial decisions are important in the efficient functioning of the market. All future financial decisions include uncertainty. The uncertainty of the future makes investors’ decision difficult. The financial decisions of investors who wish to use their savings in various investment instruments are important in the efficient management of funds in the economy. Decisions have a significant impact on financial markets. Monetary loss or profit as a result of the investment makes it difficult for investors to make decisions. Individual investors aim to achieve the highest risk with the lowest risk in financial investment decisions. If the risk of a financial investment instrument is high, the expectation of high return on this investment instrument increases. Traditional finance theories are based on the principle that individuals make decisions by acting rationally. Individual investors make a rational choice of financial investment instruments in their investment decisions and strive for maximum return on their savings. Since investors are rational, they analyze decisions in financial investment instruments rationally. However, in this process, the investor encounters many factors affecting the investment decision in the market. The decisions taken affect the outcome of the investment either positively or negatively. Therefore, the evaluation of the criteria affecting the investment decision has been included in many academic researches.&nbsp;In this study, the importance of the criteria affecting the investment decisions of the investors trading in financial markets is analyzed. The aim of this study is to compare the criteria that the financial investment decision makers take into consideration in the decision-making process. The criteria included in the study; Global Markets, Domestic Financial Indicators, Investment Instrument Characteristics and Analysis Techniques Used. The aim of this study is to reveal the economic, social, investment instrument characteristics and analysis techniques that are useful in the process of evaluating the savings of individual investors in financial investment instruments. The purpose of this study is to provide a new perspective by evaluating the relationships between the criteria affecting investment decision with the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. In addition to the support from the literature, my financial work experience contributed to my study in the process of determining the criteria included in the study. In this study, the Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used and the opinions of 10 experts responsible for financial decisions were taken. As a result of the findings obtained from the opinions of the experts based on the criteria, the most important criterion among the criteria was revealed to be Technical analysis. Investors pay attention to past price movements of investment instruments in decision-making. The second criterion that was given importance among the criteria was Global markets. After the financial globalization, all the information related to the economic and political situation of countries affect the values of the investment instruments in the market.

Evaluation of Factors Affecting Investment Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty Conditions with Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach

Gökhan

Fatma

As a result of the convergence hypothesis that the growth rates of developing and underdeveloped countries will be higher than those of developed countries, underdeveloped and developing countries will catch up with developed countries. In other words, the real gross domestic product of all countries will be equalized after a certain period of time. This idea is basically based on the law of decreasing yields. As a result of the capital increase of developed countries, which have reached the saturation point in terms of capital, the output increase rate is below the output increase rate as a result of the capital increase of underdeveloped and developing countries, which are insufficient in terms of capital. The basis of the convergence hypothesis is based on Solow (1956). Until Solow’s work, an acceptable theoretical explanation could not be given to this phenomenon, which was voiced by many theorists prior to Solow. The basis of the convergence hypothesis is based on Solow (1956). Moreover, most of the growth models are directly or indirectly based on the Solow model. There are multiple types of convergence tested in the literature. Earlier models did not distinguish between old and new technology, and looked at both old and new technology with one vision. The introduction of technological progress means that there is a difference in the efficiency of old and new technology. Thus, the model means that only physical capital accumulation cannot bring about growth per capita or increase the amount of production. In particular, given a microeconomic specification of technologies and preferences, the per capita output in an economy will approach the same level, regardless of initial capital (Timakova, 2011). When comparing different economies, it means that for economies with the same technologies and preferences, the difference in production per capita will be temporary.The Solow growth model is the first to present convergence. It has deeply influenced the way economists conceptualize long-term relationships between macroeconomics. According to this hypothesis within the neo-classical growth theory approaches, the income of the less developed countries will reach the level of developed countries after a while. That is, the exact definition of convergence is to achieve the same fixed income level. Convergence hypothesis studies generally use external theory (Rivas ve Villarroya, 2017). Because the concept of convergence emerged, if different countries have the same preferences and technology, it can be said that the poorer countries tend to grow faster than the rich countries, especially in the presence of accumulated factors, particularly the decrease in marginal returns in capital use. Each country will reach its own stable state, but the differences in the per capita income will be reduced. When the rich and poor countries reach the same fixed income level, another possible solution can be seen. The hypothesis of convergence of incomes of underdeveloped countries to incomes of developed countries is a hypothesis frequently tested in the literature. Different types of convergence hypothesis can be tested in terms of econometrics. In this study, the convergence of annual income series of the EU member countries, covering the period of 1960-2018, was examined and the stochastic convergence hypothesis, one of the convergence types, was tested with panel unit root tests based on SUR models. The ADF and KSS panel unit root tests based on SUR models. The ADF and KSS panel unit root tests are second generation panel unit root tests. The ADF and KSS panel unit root tests take into account the cross-sectional dependency and allow for an explanation of each unit separately. In this study, using SURADF and SURKSS unit root tests, the convergence status of the EU member countries to the group average of the EU was examined, and results were given about whether the convergence hypothesis is valid for each country separately.

Convergence of EU Countries: SURADF and SURKSS Unit Root Test

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Kevser

Selay

This study evaluates the relations between economic performance, democracy index and economic freedoms, which are widely discussed in economic theory. The aim of this study is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of democracy index and economic freedoms on economic performance. The study was conducted with the data of 45 European countries for 2017. Data from countries with insufficient information was excluded from the analysis. Data on the economic freedom variable The Heritage Foundation, from the link: https://www.heritage.org/index/ explore?view=by-region-country year &amp; u = 636967067347971774), also contains data on the democracy index variable. The democracy index report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) can be found at the link: https://pages.eiu. com/rs/753-RIQ 438 / images / Democracy_Index_2017.pdf). Data for the economic performance variable were obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (World Bank) database. The concept of freedom can encompass many different definitions of the idea of economic freedom. Some of these definitions are as follows: Economic freedom consists of a combination of property rights and the protection of individuals, the right to make individual choices and the freedom to compete (Gwartney ve Lawson, 2003, p.406). The concept of economic freedom therefore can be understood to mean that people voluntarily engage in consumption and investment activities at any time without the control and restrictions of the state, that their rights are under state protection and that they participate in the labor force (Şenalp, 2018, p.319). When democracy is defined as a political system, it is a regime in which all adults have the right to vote, where candidates in the election can freely compete, and through periodic elections, decision makers come to power with strong authority (Huntington, 1984, p.195). Democracy also provides freedom and the possibility of self-determination (Schwartz, 1993, p.552). A two-stage approach was used to determine the consistency of the data used in the study with the research hypotheses (Anderson and Gerbing, 1988). In the first step,&nbsp;the measurement model was tested to determine whether the observed variables in the model accurately measured the latent variables to which they belong. This stage of the analysis is considered as Confirmatory Factor Analysis. If the indicator variables that make latent variables measurable do not accurately measure the constructed structure, the next step, the structural model, will not need to be tested. For this reason, the measurement model must meet the requirements for compliance. The second stage includes the testing of the structural model (Huchting, Lac and Labrie, 2008, p.543). When the model was evaluated according to the obtained t-values, there was a direct relationship between economic freedom and democracy index, and between democracy index and economic performance, while no direct relationship was found between economic freedom and economic performance. This suggests that the index of democracy may be a mediating variable. In order to evaluate the mediation effect, a significant relationship was found between economic freedom and economic performance. When the index of democracy is included in the model, the value of the path coefficient between these two variables decreases and the path becomes meaningless. In this case, it can be said that the index of democracy fully mediates the relationship between economic freedom and economic performance. In other words, the relationship between economic freedom and economic performance is indirectly realized through the democracy index. The fact that there is a direct relationship between economic freedom and democracy index and democracy index and economic performance supports the mediating effect (Judd and Kenny, 1981, pp. 605-606; Baron and Kenny, 1986, p.1176-1177). This study shows that economic performance and economic freedom, which are the determinants of the institutional structure for European countries, can be increased with economic performance and economic freedoms in order to improve democracy. For sustainable economic performance, countries should strengthen and add importance to their institutional structures. Countries aiming to increase their economic performance should set policies to increase their democracies and economic freedoms. Since the findings obtained belong to a certain group of countries, they cannot be generalized for all countries of the world. In future studies, analyses can be made for different country groups and time periods. The results obtained by using different analysis programs and different estimation methods can then be compared. The sub-components of economic freedom affect the environment and functioning of the market and contribute to the development of democracy, with the effect it has on entrepreneurship. Furthermore, individual commercial activities positively affect economic performance.

An Evulation on Effect of Freedoms on Economic Performance with Structural Equation Modeling

Mücahit

Purchasing power parity (PPP), which is one of the subjects of interest in international finance and economy, is defined as a rate of change that equalizes the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating price level differences between countries (TURKSTAT, 2008). In other words, the theory of purchasing power parity states that the nominal exchange rate between the two currencies is determined by the purchasing power of each country’s currency. This means that the exchange rate between the two countries must be equal to a fixed level of goods and services basket price of the two currencies. While economists generally doubt the validity of PPP in the short term, they agree that it is necessary to investigate whether PPP is valid in the long term because price differences between countries are not sustainable in the long term (Acaravcı and Öztürk, 2010). Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) evaluated the importance of purchasing power parity in terms of both traditional and new approaches to open economy macroeconomics for policy purposes. According to the traditional approach, the validity of PPP is valuable information for policy-makers who want to evaluate the effects of devaluation since the effects of devaluation under PPP on competitiveness will be eliminated in the long term. In open economies with new approaches, PPP is a necessary condition for equalizing market integrity and marginal utility. Empirical studies use cointegration tests, variance ratio tests, and quantitative regressions for nominal exchange rates and prices, and unit root tests for real exchange rates, to assess the validity of PPP. (Chortareas and Kapetanios, 2009; 391). The estimation of PPP exchange rates is very important for practical purposes. These objectives are; (i) determining the degree of deviation from the nominal exchange rate, ie determining whether the exchange rate is low or not. (ii) making appropriate policy decisions; (iii) adjusting currency parities; (iv) an international comparison of national income levels; and (v) a comparison between domestic price and foreign price (Sarno and Taylor, 2002). Whether PPP is valid or not should be examined. Where PPP is not valid, PPP cannot be used as a criterion for international income level comparison and estimation of real exchange rates, and where applicable, it can be used as a criterion for the level of development comparisons and the reliability of all economic decisions (Güriş et al. 2016). . In this study, the validity of purchasing power parity was examined using Fourier unit root tests for Turkey for the period 1992:01-2018:12. In order to make a comparison, two different recently developed unit root tests were used in the study. The study is expected to contribute to the current literature in terms of the method used. The studies for Turkey is as follows; Gurbuz and Hasgur (1997), Telatar and Kazdagli (1998), Erlat (2003), Yazgan (2003), Alba and Park (2005), Aslan and Kanbur (2007), Ozdemir (2008), Kalyoncu (2009), Lightning and Lightning (2012), Sener et al. (2015), Güriş et al. (2016), Rock and Steel (2018). In cases where series do not have a linear structure, nonlinear unit root tests give more powerful results than linear unit root tests. In the literature, there are unit root tests examining stationarity structures of nonlinear series. In this study, Güris (2018) and Ranjbar et al. (2018) non-linear Fourier unit root tests were used. Firstly, the linearity of the calculated real exchange rate series was examined and it was found that it does not have a linear structure. In the second part of the empirical analysis, the stationarity of the series was examined with the help of Fourier unit root tests. The obtained results indicate that Turkey has a stationary structure in the real exchange rate series. Accordingly, it is seen that the PPP hypothesis is valid for Turkey. In other words, the analyzed period, the real exchange rate being stationary and Turkey coming to the real exchange rate shocks are temporary. The validity of PPP means that the prices of goods expressed in the same currency are the same anywhere in the world. Therefore, PPP is expected to play an active role in the monetary policy decision for Turkey.

Investigation of the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis with Fourier Unit Root Tests: The Case of Turkey

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Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics is published twice a year, every 6 months. Our journal aims to publish high quality articles on the application of new econometric techniques, including economics and related topics, covering measurement, forecasting, testing, forecasting and policy analysis. Appropriate interpretation of the results obtained by careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques is emphasized. Emphasis should be stressed on economic content in articles.

Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics publishes high quality research, mainly in the fields of Econometrics, Statistics and operations research. To provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics, which includes achievable techniques and can be easily repeated by other researchers. All submissions are subject to a double blind review process.  EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics has been published as a "peer-reviewed journal" every six months since 2005. The language of the journal is English and Turkish. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged.

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Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics is published twice a year, every 6 months.Our journal aims to publish high quality articles on the application of new econometric techniques, including economics and related topics, covering measurement, forecasting, testing, forecasting and policy analysis.Appropriate interpretation of the results obtained by careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques is emphasized.Emphasis should be stressed on economic content in articles.Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics publishes high quality research, mainly in the fields of Econometrics, Statistics and operations research.To provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics, which includes achievable techniques and can be easily repeated by other researchers.All submissions are subject to a double blind review process.Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics has been published as a &#34;peer-reviewed journal&#34; every six months since 2005.The language of the journal is English and Turkish.Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged.

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The journal is committed to upholding the highest standards of publication ethics and pays regard to Principles of Transparency and Best Practice in Scholarly Publishing published by the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE), the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), the Open Access Scholarly Publishers Association (OASPA), and the World Association of Medical Editors (WAME) on <a href="https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing</a> The subjects covered in the manuscripts submitted to the Journal for publication must be in accordance with the aim and scope of the Journal. Only those manuscripts approved by every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Changing the name of an author (omission, addition or order) in papers submitted to the Journal requires written permission of all declared authors.Plagiarism, duplication, fraud authorship/denied authorship, research/data fabrication, salami slicing/salami publication, breaching of copyrights, prevailing conflict of interest are unethical behaviors. All manuscripts not in accordance with the accepted ethical standards will be removed from the publication. This also contains any possible malpractice discovered after the publication. Plagiarism Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. If plagiarism/self-plagiarism will be found authors will be informed. Editors may resubmit manuscript for similarity check at any peer-review or production stage if required. High similarity scores may lead to rejection of a manuscript before and even after acceptance. Depending on the type of article and the percentage of similarity score taken from each article, the overall similarity score is generally expected to be less than 15 or 20%. Double Blind Peer-Review After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by the editors-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope. The editor provides a fair double-blind peer review of the submitted articles and hands over the papers matching the formal rules to at least two national/international referees for evaluation and gives green light for publication upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.

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The journal is an open access journal and all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. Except for commercial purposes, users are allowed to read, download, copy, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles in this journal without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. This is in accordance with the <a href="https://www.budapestopenaccessinitiative.org/read" target="_blank">BOAI</a> definition of open access.The open access articles in the journal are licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.en" target="_blank">CC BY-NC 4.0</a>) license.

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To guarantee that all papers published in the journal are maintained and permanently accessible, articles are stored in Dergipark which serves as a  national archival web site and at the same time permits LOCKSS to  collect, preserve, and serve the content.Additionally, authors are encouraged to self-archive the final PDF version of their articles in open electronic archives with  that conform to standards of Open Archives Initiative (<a href="https://www.openarchives.org/" target="_blank">https://www.openarchives.org/</a>). Authors should provide a link from the deposited version to the URL of IUPress journal website.

Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics is committed to upholding the highest standards of publication ethics and pays regard to Principles of Transparency and Best Practice in Scholarly Publishing published by the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE), the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), the Open Access Scholarly Publishers Association (OASPA), and the World Association of Medical Editors (WAME) on https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishingAll parties involved in the publishing process (Editors, Reviewers, Authors and Publishers) are expected to agree on the following ethical principles.All submissions must be original, unpublished (including as full text in conference proceedings), and not under the review of any other publication synchronously. Each manuscript is reviewed by one of the editors and at least two referees under double-blind peer review process. Plagiarism, duplication, fraud authorship/denied authorship, research/data fabrication, salami slicing/salami publication, breaching of copyrights, prevailing conflict of interest are unnethical behaviors.All manuscripts not in accordance with the accepted ethical standards will be removed from the publication. This also contains any possible malpractice discovered after the publication. In accordance with the code of conduct we will report any cases of suspected plagiarism or duplicate publishing.

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The journal adheres to the highest standards in research ethics and follows the principles of international research ethics as defined below. The authors are responsible for the compliance of the manuscripts with the ethical rules.-    Principles of integrity, quality and transparency should be sustained in designing the research, reviewing the design and conducting the research.-    The research team and participants should be fully informed about the aim, methods, possible uses and requirements of the research and risks of participation in research.-    The confidentiality of the information provided by the research participants and the confidentiality of the respondents should be ensured. The research should be designed to protect the autonomy and dignity of the participants.-    Research participants should participate in the research voluntarily, not under any coercion.-    Any possible harm to participants must be avoided. The research should be planned in such a way that the participants are not at risk.-    The independence of research must be clear; and any conflict of interest or must be disclosed.-    In experimental studies with human subjects, written informed consent of the participants who decide to participate in the research must be obtained. In the case of children and those under wardship or with confirmed insanity, legal custodian’s assent must be obtained.-    If the study is to be carried out in any institution or organization, approval must be obtained from this institution or organization.-    In studies with human subject, it must be noted in the method’s section of the manuscript that the informed consent of the participants and ethics committee approval from the institution where the study has been conducted have been obtained.

It is authors’ responsibility to ensure that the article is in accordance with scientific and ethical standards and rules. And authors must ensure that submitted work is original. They must certify that the manuscript has not previously been published elsewhere or is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere, in any language. Applicable copyright laws and conventions must be followed. Copyright material (e.g. tables, figures or extensive quotations) must be reproduced only with appropriate permission and acknowledgement. Any work or words of other authors, contributors, or sources must be appropriately credited and referenced.All the authors of a submitted manuscript must have direct scientific and academic contribution to the manuscript. The author(s) of the original research articles is defined as a person who is significantly involved in “conceptualization and design of the study”, “collecting the data”, “analyzing the data”, “writing the manuscript”, “reviewing the manuscript with a critical perspective” and “planning/conducting the study of the manuscript and/or revising it”. Fund raising, data collection or supervision of the research group are not sufficient roles to be accepted as an author. The author(s) must meet all these criteria described above. The order of names in the author list of an article must be a co-decision and it must be indicated in the <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/ABC26D9F796147E2BEB8F140CC273B87" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>. The individuals who do not meet the authorship criteria but contributed to the study must take place in the acknowledgement section. Individuals providing technical support, assisting writing, providing a general support, providing material or financial support are examples to be indicated in acknowledgement section.All authors must disclose all issues concerning financial relationship, conflict of interest, and competing interest that may potentially influence the results of the research or scientific judgment.When an author discovers a significant error or inaccuracy in his/her own published paper, it is the author’s obligation to promptly cooperate with the Editor to provide retractions or corrections of mistakes.

Editor-in-Chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors. He/She provides a fair double-blind peer review of the submitted articles for publication and ensures that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential before publishing.Editor-in-Chief is responsible for the contents and overall quality of the publication. He/She must publish errata pages or make corrections when needed.Editor-in-Chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers. Only he has the full authority to assign a reviewer and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal.Reviewers must have no conflict of interest with respect to the research, the authors and/or the research funders. Their judgments must be objective.Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side.A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process.The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees must be ensured. In particular situations, the editor may share the review of one reviewer with other reviewers to clarify a particular point.

Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by editor-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope. The selected manuscripts are sent to at least two national/international referees for evaluation and publication decision is given by editor-in-chief  upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.Editor-in-Chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors. He/She provides a fair double-blind peer review of the submitted articles for publication and ensures that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential before publishing. Editor-in-Chief is responsible for the contents and overall quality of the publication. He/She must publish errata pages or make corrections when needed. Editor-in-Chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers. Only he has the full authority to assign a reviewer and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal. Reviewers must have no conflict of interest with respect to the research, the authors and/or the research funders. Their judgments must be objective. Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side. A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process. The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees must be ensured. In particular situations, the editor may share the review of one reviewer with other reviewers to clarify a particular point.

Peer Review

Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation. Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by Editor-in-Chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope. Editor-in-Chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors and ensures a fair double-blind peer review of the selected manuscripts. The selected manuscripts are sent to at least two national/international referees for evaluation and publication decision is given by Editor-in-Chief upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims. Editor-in-Chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal. Reviewers’ judgments must be objective. Reviewers’ comments on the following aspects are expected while conducting the review. - Does the manuscript contain new and significant information? - Does the abstract clearly and accurately describe the content of the manuscript? - Is the problem significant and concisely stated? - Are the methods described comprehensively? - Are the interpretations and consclusions justified by the results? - Is adequate references made to other Works in the field? - Is the language acceptable? Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side. A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process. The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees is important.

LanguageThe language of the journal is both Turkish and English.Manuscript Organization and SubmissionAll correspondence will be sent to the first-named author unless otherwise specified. Manuscpript is to be submitted online via <a href="https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist" target="_blank">https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist</a> and it must be accompanied by a cover letter indicating that the manuscript is intended for publication, specifying the article category (i.e. research article, review etc.) and including information about the manuscript (see the Submission Checklist). Manuscripts should be prepared in Microsoft Word 2003 and upper versions. In addition, <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/ABC26D9F796147E2BEB8F140CC273B87" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a> that has to be signed by all authors must be submitted.1. The manuscripts should be in A4 paper standards: having 2.5 cm margins from right, left, bottom and top, Times New Roman font style in 12 font size and line spacing of 1.5.2. The manuscripts should contain between 4500 and 8500 words and the page numbers must be at the bottom and in the middle.3.  The name(s) of author(s) should be given just beneath the title of the study aligned to the right. Also the affiliation, title, e-mail and phone of the author(s) must be indicated on the bottom of the page as a footnote marked with an asterisk (*).4.  Submitted manuscripts in Turkish must have before the introduction section, the abstract both in Turkish and English, between 200 and 250 words and an extended abstract in English between 600-800 words, summarizing the scope, the purpose, the results of the study and the methodology used. Underneath the abstracts, 3 to 5 keywords that inform the reader about the content of the study should be specified in Turkish and in English. If the manuscript is written in English, it must include an abstract only in English.5. The manuscripts should contain mainly these components: title, abstract and keywords; extended abstract, body text with sections, footnotes and references.6. Research article sections are ordered as follows: “INTRODUCTION”, “AIM AND METHODOLOGY”, “FINDINGS”, “DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION”, “ENDNOTES”, “REFERENCES” and “TABLES AND FIGURES”.7. The 6th version of the APA (American Psychological Association) reference style should be used for in-text citation and references list. For information and samples on the APA 6 style please refer to http://jecs.istanbul.edu.tr/en/content/information-for-authors/references and/or REFERENCES section in the Information for Authors.8. Tables, graphs and figures can be given with a number and a defining title if and only if it is necessary to follow the idea of the article. the article. The title of table should be placed above the table; caption of figure should be placed beneath the figure. Features like demographic characteristics that can be given within the text should not be indicated as tables separately.9. A title page including author information must be submitted together with the manuscript. The title page is to include fully descriptive title of the manuscript and, affiliation, title, e-mail address, postal address, phone and fax number of the author(s) (see The Submission Checklist).10. Authors are responsible for all statements made in their work submitted to the Journal for publication.11. The author(s) can be asked to make some changes in their articles due to peer reviews.12. A copy of the journal will be sent to each author of the accepted articles upon their request.13. The manuscripts that were submitted to the journal will not be returned whether they are published or not.

Author Guidelines

Before beginning the online submission process please read the Information for Authors and make sure you have the followings available:Cover letter to the editor<ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The category of the manuscript</li> <li>Confirming that “the paper is not under consideration for publication in another journal”.</li> <li>Including disclosure of any commercial or financial involvement.</li> <li>Confirming that the statistical design of the research article is reviewed.</li> <li>Confirming that last control for fluent English was done.</li> <li>Confirming that journal policies detailed in Information for Authors have been reviewed.</li> <li>Confirming that the references cited in the text and listed in the references section are in line with APA 6.</li> </ul> </ul><a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/ABC26D9F796147E2BEB8F140CC273B87" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>Permission of previous published material if used in the present manuscript <a href="http://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/FileHandler2.ashx?f=ekoist_title-page.docx" target="_blank">Title page</a><ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The category of the manuscript</li> <li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>All authors’ names and affiliations (institution, faculty/department, city, country), e-mail addresses</li> <li>Corresponding author’s email address, full postal address, telephone and fax number</li> <li>ORCIDs of all authors.</li> </ul> </ul>Main Manuscript Document<ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Abstracts (200-250 words) both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Key words: 3 to 5 words both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Extended Abstract (600-800 words) in English (only for Turkish articles)</li> <li>Main article sections</li> <li>Acknowledgement (if exits)</li> <li>References</li> <li>All tables, illustrations (figures) (including title, description, footnotes)</li> </ul> </ul>Manuscript Submission<ul type="disc"> <li>Dergipark manuscript submission site of the journal is: <a href="https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist" target="_blank">https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist</a></li><li>While uploading Main Document, make sure that the main document has no information that clarify the author’s identity. Due to double blind peer review, Main Document must not include Title Page, the name of author or any other detail that can disclose the author identity. </li> <li>Additionaly, Supplemental File for Review must not include any detail that can disclose author identity as well.</li> </ul><ul type="disc"> </ul>Files to be uploaded separately<ul type="disc"> <li>Copyright Agreement Form</li> <li>Permissions obtained for previously published material if used in the present manuscript</li> <li>Title page</li> <li>Main Manuscript Document</li> </ul><ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Abstracts (200-250 words) both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Key words: 3 to 5 words both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Extended Abstract (600-800 words) in English (only for Turkish articles)</li> <li>Main article sections</li> <li>Acknowledgement (if exists)</li> <li>References</li> <li>All tables, illustrations (figures) (including title, description, footnotes)</li></ul></ul><ul type="disc"> </ul>

Although references to review articles can be an efficient way to guide readers to a body of literature, review articles do not always reflect original work accurately. Readers should therefore be provided with direct references to original research sources whenever possible. On the other hand, extensive lists of references to original work on a topic can use excessive space on the printed page. Small numbers of references to key original papers often serve as well as more exhaustive lists, particularly since references can now be added to the electronic version of published papers, and since electronic literature searching allows readers to retrieve published literature efficiently. Papers accepted but not yet included in the issue are published online in the Early View section and they should be cited as “advance online publication”. Citing a “personal communication” should be avoided unless it provides essential information not available from a public source, in which case the name of the person and date of communication should be cited in parentheses in the text. For scientific articles, written permission and confirmation of accuracy from the source of a personal communication must be obtained.Reference Style and FormatEKOIST: Econometrics and Statistics complies with APA (American Psychological Association) style 6th Edition for referencing and quoting. For more information:-    American Psychological Association. (2010). Publication manual of the American Psychological Association (6th ed.). Washington, DC: APA.-    <a href="http://www.apastyle.org" target="_blank">http://www.apastyle.org</a>Citations in the TextCitations must be indicated with the author surname and publication year within the parenthesis.If more than one citation is made within the same paranthesis, separate them with (;).Samples:More than one citation;(Esin, et al., 2002; Karasar, 1995)Citation with one author;(Akyolcu, 2007)Citation with two authors;(Sayıner &amp; Demirci, 2007)Citation with three, four, five authors;First citation in the text: (Ailen, Ciambrune, &amp; Welch, 2000) Subsequent citations in the text: (Ailen, et al., 2000)Citations with more than six authors;(Çavdar, et al., 2003)Citations in the ReferenceAll the citations done in the text should be listed in the References section in alphabetical order of author surname without numbering. Below given examples should be considered in citing the references.Basic Reference TypesBooka) Turkish BookKarasar, N. (1995). Araştırmalarda rapor hazırlama (8th ed.) [Preparing research reports]. Ankara, Turkey: 3A Eğitim Danışmanlık Ltd.b) Book Translated into TurkishMucchielli, A. (1991). Zihniyetler [Mindsets] (A. Kotil, Trans.). İstanbul, Turkey: İletişim Yayınları.c) Edited BookÖren, T., Üney, T., &amp; Çölkesen, R. (Eds.). (2006). Türkiye bilişim ansiklopedisi [Turkish Encyclopedia of Informatics]. İstanbul, Turkey: Papatya Yayıncılık.d) Turkish Book with Multiple AuthorsTonta, Y., Bitirim, Y., &amp; Sever, H. (2002). Türkçe arama motorlarında performans değerlendirme [Performance evaluation in Turkish search engines]. Ankara, Turkey: Total Bilişim.e) Book in EnglishKamien R., &amp; Kamien A. (2014). Music: An appreciation. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Education.f) Chapter in an Edited BookBassett, C. (2006). Cultural studies and new media. In G. Hall &amp; C. Birchall (Eds.), New cultural studies: Adventures in theory (pp. 220–237). Edinburgh, UK: Edinburgh University Press.g) Chapter in an Edited Book in TurkishErkmen, T. (2012). Örgüt kültürü: Fonksiyonları, öğeleri, işletme yönetimi ve liderlikteki önemi [Organization culture: Its functions, elements and importance in leadership and business management]. In M. Zencirkıran (Ed.), Örgüt sosyolojisi [Organization sociology] (pp. 233–263). Bursa, Turkey: Dora Basım Yayın.h) Book with the same organization as author and publisherAmerican Psychological Association. (2009). Publication manual of the American psychological association (6th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.Articlea) Turkish ArticleMutlu, B., &amp; Savaşer, S. (2007). Çocuğu ameliyat sonrası yoğun bakımda olan ebeveynlerde stres nedenleri ve azaltma girişimleri [Source and intervention reduction of stress for parents whose children are in intensive care unit after surgery]. Istanbul University Florence Nightingale Journal of Nursing, 15(60), 179–182.b) English Articlede Cillia, R., Reisigl, M., &amp; Wodak, R. (1999). The discursive construction of national identity. Discourse and Society, 10(2), 149–173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0957926599010002002c) Journal Article with DOI and More Than Seven AuthorsLal, H., Cunningham, A. L., Godeaux, O., Chlibek, R., Diez-Domingo, J., Hwang, S.-J. ... Heineman, T. C. (2015). Efficacy of an adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine in older adults. New England Journal of Medicine, 372, 2087–2096. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1501184d) Journal Article from Web, without DOISidani, S. (2003). Enhancing the evaluation of nursing care effectiveness. Canadian Journal of Nursing Research, 35(3), 26–38. 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(2014). University campuses as places of potential publicness: Exploring the politicals, social and cultural practices in Ege University (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from Retrieved from: http://library.iyte.edu.tr/tr/hizli-erisim/iyte-tez-portalic) Dissertation/Thesis from WebTonta, Y. A. (1992). An analysis of search failures in online library catalogs (Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Berkeley). Retrieved from http://yunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~tonta/yayinlar /phd/ickapak.htmld) Dissertation/Thesis abstracted in Dissertations Abstracts InternationalAppelbaum, L. G. (2005). Three studies of human information processing: Texture amplifica&#173;tion, motion representation, and figure-ground segregation. Dissertation Abstracts International: Section B. Sciences and Engineering, 65(10), 5428.e) Symposium ContributionKrinsky-McHale, S. J., Zigman, W. B., &amp; Silverman, W. (2012, August). Are neuropsychiatric symptoms markers of prodromal Alzheimer’s disease in adults with Down syndrome? In W. B. Zigman (Chair), Predictors of mild cognitive impairment, dementia, and mortality in adults with Down syndrome. Symposium conducted at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Orlando, FL.f) Conference Paper Abstract Retrieved OnlineLiu, S. (2005, May). Defending against business crises with the help of intelligent agent based early warning solutions. Paper presented at the Seventh International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems, Miami, FL. Abstract retrieved from http://www.iceis.org/iceis2005/abstracts_2005.htmg) Conference Paper - In Regularly Published Proceedings and Retrieved OnlineHerculano-Houzel, S., Collins, C. E., Wong, P., Kaas, J. H., &amp; Lent, R. (2008). 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Issue Type	Regular
Issue Date	31.12.2021
Editor(s)	Burak Güriş
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Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics

ISSUE 35, 2021

Avrupa Ülkelerinde CO2 Emisyonu Yakınsamasının Fourier Koentegrasyon Testi ile Analizi

Türkiye’nin Konut Satışı Değerlerinin Yapay Sinir Ağları İle Öngörülmesi

Kripto Para Birimlerinin Volatilite Yapılarının Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

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OECD Ülkelerinde İşsizliğin Histeri ve Doğal Oran Çerçevesinde İncelenmesi: Alternatif Panel Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar

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Exchange Rate Volatility in the Covid-19 Period: An Analysis Using the Markov-Switching ARCH Model

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