Daud

Esin

Prof.

Improving Forecast Accuracy Using Combined Forecasts with Regard  to Structural Breaks and ARCH Innovations

Seda

Assist. Prof.

Mehmet

Gülin

Since ancient times, the world has struggled with epidemics, and COVID-19 is the latest epidemic the whole world is still fighting. As with other epidemics, countries have invented new vaccines, changed and transformed themselves socioeconomically, and had to take new preventive actions. Working from home, curfews, vaccinations, protections, liquidity supports, health expenditures, and other government expenditures are among the most important actions countries have taken. Although no objective judgment or objective comparison exists about the ranks or importance levels of these measures and actions, they are considered to be important in the fight against COVID-19.This study, first objectively examines the importance of these criteria in G20 countries’ fight against COVID-19. Of the obtained criteria weights, the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the amount of liquidity support are seen to be the most prominent criteria with the highest values. The CRITIC method has been used to obtain criteria weights using the data collected for Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. The European Union (EU) as the other member of G20 countries has been omitted from the study to avoid using duplicate information, as the EU already contains some of the countries that were already mentioned. The dataset has been gathered from the World Health Organization (WHO), Our World in Data, Worldometer, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases and contains the most up-to-date data shared according to the data release calendar.The other objective of this study is to rank the countries according to their criteria and criteria weights. The process of ordering is known to be defined along the set of real numbers (e.g., a sample of [1, 5, 9] are considered ordered just because 1 ≤ 5 and 5 ≤ 9). Other terms require the operations ordering and ranking to have perfectly defined binary comparison operators such as ≤, &lt;,&gt; and ≥. On the contrary, a sample in higher dimensions such as (1, 3), (5, 7), and (7, 1) cannot be ordered or ranked in as unique a way because the binary comparison operators are not defined for dimensions of p ≥ 2. Consequently, an infinite number of orderings can occur for the observations in such cases.A multiple criteria decision-making method (MCDM) defines an exclusive ordering or ranking measure for ordering or ranking multivariate data with respect to predefined criteria, criteria weights, optimization directions, and a decision matrix. From this perspective, obtaining a mathematical ranking of countries with respect to a set of criteria is an ordering problem with an infinite number of solutions over a multi-dimensional space.This study ranks countries according to the selected criteria. Due to the unique ranking process for each single method, more than one method is used to compare results. TOPSIS, COPRAS, ARAS, WASPAS, MOORA, and MABAC are the wellknown and widely applied members of the MCDM methods family in the relevant literature. Each single method results in similar but different rankings based on how the comparisons are defined. These differences regarding MCDM methods complicate how results are interpreted. For example, according to the MOORA and MABAC method, Japan ranks highest, but ranks as the second most successful country according to the TOPSIS method, fourth according to the COPRAS method, third according to the ARAS method, and second according to the WASPAS method. While all of these methods give the idea that Japan’s has had quite high success, they also pose an obstacle to forming a complete ranking.The COPELAND method has been used to combine and interpret all the results obtained by the different methods. The COPELAND method is a summary measure that combines the results of many MCDM methods by performing pair-comparisons of the rankings. One of the most important findings of this study is the acknowledgement that Australia, Japan, and China have bene the most successful countries in the fight against COVID-19. When ranking countries’ success rates, Australia, Japan, and China are followed by Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa were identified as relatively less successful countries in the fight against COVID-19. Turkey ranks 14th in the general ranking obtained with the COPELAND method. When separately evaluating the results obtained from the methods, Turkey’s rank is seen to vary between 12th and 15th place.Important findings were also achieved by comparing the country rankings obtained using the MCDM methods with the results obtained using the COPELAND method. The rankings obtained using the COPRAS, ARAS, WASPAS, and MABAC methods are highly correlated to the ranking obtained using the COPELAND method, whereas TOPSIS and COPELAND have a relatively weak correlation coefficient of 74%. When examining the reported correlation matrix, the results are observed to be highly correlated, with none of the methods achieved an unexpected ranking due to the nondiagonal elements being quite far from zero.The country rankings as obtained in this study can be a guide for other countries, and even the methods of successful countries can be adopted for fighting the pandemic in the future. Consequently, this study has also revealed the most prominent factors in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic and contributes to the literature in terms of providing a comprehensive analysis by having the model include financial data, current statistics, health data, and vaccination rates. The fact that the different MCDM methods ranked the countries differently is an important limitation for the study, and a summary measurement (i.e., COPELAND) was used to combine the rankings. Future studies may be able to obtain a final common ranking by including more methods and criteria in their analyses.&nbsp;

G20 Ülkelerinin Covid-19 Pandemisi ile Mücadele Performanslarının  Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri ile Değerlendirilmesi

Canberk

Burcu

Finansal Zaman Serileri Tahmininde Hibrit Yaklaşımlar: Bir Hisse Senedi Piyasası  Uygulaması

Oğuz

Assoc. Prof.

Global Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility

Sevda

The relationship between nominal interest and inflation and the direction and size of the relationship are important for countries’ macroeconomic policies concerning price stability. Explicit Inflation Targeting (IT) is one of the primary monetary policy strategies applied to ensure price stability. Explicit IT intervenes upon the nominal interest rate to eliminate the deviations in the targeted inflation rates; traditionally, the nominal interest rates are raised, and the inflation rates are reduced to the targeted values. Accordingly, there is a negative relationship between the nominal interest rate and inflation; however, the economic developments that emerged, especially after the 2008 Global Crisis and the studies of Neo-Keynesian economists, have revealed a positive relationship between interest and inflation in the short term. Through discussions based on Neo-Classical and Neo-Keynesian views, the validity of the traditional Fisher Effect (which claims that there is a positive relationship between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate and that the direction of the relationship is from inflation to interest) has come under scrutiny.Most theoretical-applied studies on explicit IT and policy implementations in practicing countries have shown a positive relationship between interest and inflation rates; however, the direction of the relationship is from nominal interest to inflation. The positive effect of interest on inflation began as the Neo-Fisher Effect in the literature; thus, the direction of the relationship between the two variables has become important for academics and policymakers.This study econometrically examines the direction of the relationship between nominal interest and inflation, which is important in terms of price stability. For this purpose, econometric analyses are made using monthly data from January 2006 to August 2021, when Turkey applied explicit IT. In line with the findings, this study examines whether the Neo-Fisher Effect is valid. The second part of this study is handled in three parts; explanations are made about the literature concerning applied studies examining the interest-inflation relationship. The third chapter first discusses the data set and method used in the research, and then the results of the analyses are presented and interpreted. The last part provides general evaluations and policy recommendations.To determine whether the nominal interest-inflation relationship is valid based on the Neo-Fisher Effect, this study uses monthly data on government domestic debt securities interest rates and CPI/inflation variables from January 2006 to August 2021, when the deficit EH was applied in Turkey. The year 2003 (2003=100) is the basis for the CPI, representing inflation. The interest rate includes fixed-rate cash borrowings realized through the auction method and shows the monthly average cost of domestic cash borrowing (compounded % per year). The moving average method is used to adjust the seasonal effects of this study’s main variables.In addition, shadow variables (K), related to the structural break periods determined by the Bai–Perron test, are created and added to the estimation equations. The inflation and nominal interest rate variables are given a value of 1 for June 2009–November 2017 and June 2015–November 2018, and 0 for other months. Furthermore, this study investigates the existence of the relationship between nominal interest and inflation using econometric analysis methods. This study’s main analysis methods are unit root (Ng–Perron), multiple structural break (Bai–Perron) and cointegration (Johansen) tests, Dynamic EKK regression estimation, and VEC causality analysis.Since the test statistics for MZ, MZt , MSB, and MPT tests are smaller than Ng and Perron’s critical values, the basic hypothesis of “There is a unit root” is rejected; the first difference [I(1)] values of interest rate and inflation–CPI variables become stationary. The Bai–Perron structural break tests show two breaks in this study’s variables, and the Johansen cointegration tests indicate that the variables act together in the long run.Dynamic OLS regression findings with a structural break dummy variable show that a 1% increase in the inflation rate, in the long run, leads to a 0.67% increase in the nominal interest rate; however, the positive effect of the increase in the interest rate on inflation is statistically insignificant. Similarly, the VEC causality analysis results show that there is no unidirectional causality running from the nominal interest rate to inflation, and therefore the Neo-Fisher Effect is not valid in Turkey. Dynamic OLS and VEC causality analysis results indicate that savers demand more interest to protect their actual earnings as inflation rates rise in Turkey during the explicit IT period. Based on the analysis results, it is possible to say that it would be appropriate to use inflation actively and consider other basic macroeconomic indicators to manage the real value of public debt in Turkey.&nbsp;

Açık Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Döneminde Neo-Fisher Etkisi’nin  Geçerliliği: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Yakup

Chasing Volatility of USD/TRY Foreign Exchange Rate:  The Comparison of CARR, EWMA, and GARCH Models

Emine

Cihan

Financial and money markets developed in the 15th century, and financial crises are not a new concept as they have occurred unexpectedly since then. Financial crises have been dominant for centuries and still continue to manifest and spread in countries today. Crises happen much more often than people realize and are not specific to certain historical periods or emerging market economies (Gorton, 2017, p. 45).In general, when globalization gained momentum in the 1980s, many crises have served as the basis for both macroeconomic imbalances and deterioration of financial indicators. A financial crisis represents a sharp deterioration of a group of financial and economic indicators, an imbalance between money supply and demand, a fall in asset prices, and failure of financial institutions such as banks (Raluca &amp; Witowschi, 2010, p. 33). Financial crises manifest standard features such as the overvaluation of exchange rates, withdrawal of foreign capital, inability to close short-term debts, domestic credit crunch, and savers withdrawing deposit funds from banks and buying securities from capital markets (Furman et al., 1998, p. 1).International capital movements are one of the factors that negatively affect a country’s financial equilibrium. Capital goes to the country where it will appreciate the most as a result of its free movement within the economic system, and this provides an opportunity to support that country’s economic growth. However, when international capital movements are unstable, the economy of the country the capital has entered can be seriously affected. In particular, portfolio investments both increase consumption by facilitating access to credit and may cause a divergence between domestic and foreign demand as a result of the overvaluation of the local currency. This state of the country’s economy may cause the macroeconomic balance to deteriorate and result in the economy’s vulnerability to sudden changes regarding the global risk appetite to increase. As a result, negative aspects may occur in terms of both macroeconomic and financial equilibrium. Sudden capital outflows occur based on these types of developments within the country’s economy.The academic literature shows the reversal of capital inflows to be called a sudden stop (SS). Dornbusch et al.’s (1995) study expressed the concept of SS for the first time during their evaluation of capital outflows from Mexico with regard to the Latin American and Mexican crises, thus revealing the first occurrence of SS in the literature. Rodrik and Velasco (1999) also referred to SS as capital account reversal. The SS phenomenon has also been used as a method for determining financial crises (Radelet &amp; Sachs, 1998, p. 43).The aim of this study is to determine the SS periods in equity and debt flows for Turkey using monthly data over the January 2010-December 2021 period and to investigate the effect of global and local variables on the occurrence of these periods with respect to both equity and debt flows. In this context, the second section of the research involves a literature review, and the third section describes the data and methods. The fourth section presents the empirical findings, and the fifth section discusses the results of the study and makes recommendations for policy makers. This study is the first in the literature to examine SSs in equity and debt flows regarding the case of Turkey using monthly data.The results of the study determined three SS periods to have occurred regarding equity flows (June-July 2013, January 2020, and December 2021) and two SS periods to have occurred regarding debt flows (June-July 2015 and March-May 2018). When examining the effect from the variables on SSs, sudden stops in equity and debt flows are only meaningful to a certain extent with regard to global variables; however, more meaningful results are obtained when local variables are included in the model.As a result of the study, although global variables are seen to be effective in the formation of SSs, the main effect emerges when local variables are put into play. When looking at these results, a developing country like Turkey should have its own solid economic foundations, from which the country should have financial and price stability, low risk levels, and a balance of all factors that are able to affect local variables. In short, an environment of trust should be provided for both international investors and local investors in order for them to invest. Future studies can compare this one with Turkey and/or other developing and developed countries, can increase the number of independent variables, or diversify the data by taking daily data as the frequency range instead of monthly data.&nbsp;

Uluslararası Sermaye Akışlarında Ani Duruş: Türkiye Örneği

Hüseyin

Res. Assist.

Nimet

Buğra

Increases in food and commodity prices in recent years have accelerated throughout the world, and the concerns of economists and policy makers regarding food accessibility have also grown because of these increases. The continuous increases in agricultural commodity prices since 2006 has led policy makers to discuss issues such as global food shortages and inflationary pressure. This increase in global food prices is also a relatively new phenomenon. According to Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO, 2021) Grain Supply and Demand Summary Report, expectations regarding global grain production for 2022 indicate that it will decrease for the first time in the past four years compared to the record production rates of 2021. The effect of this supply-side decline may eventually put pressure on food prices. Many studies have been carried out recently on how to bring this pressure on food prices under control, on the need to make policy recommendations, and on revealing the factors affecting the changes in food prices. Multiple researchers have additionally examined the possible causes and consequences of fluctuations in different commodities in recent years. The increases in oil prices have been revealed to have an indirect effect on global food prices for various reasons. Due to how the increase in crude oil prices increases production costs, producers will either restrict their production to reduce the cost of items or reflect these costs onto their prices. In this case, the issue of accessibility to food emerges due to a shortage of supply or high prices. Moreover, this effect is not limited only to the production stage of food products but also causes higher energy costs as well as higher food processing, packaging, and distribution costs. When considering increased costs, an increase in oil prices causes an increase in food import costs in food importing countries and accordingly an upward pressure regarding the domestic prices of foodstuffs. Therefore, predicting how much of a greater impact the positive changes in crude&nbsp;oil prices will have compared to negative changes is important for policy makers in preparing the appropriate macroeconomic policies regarding such fluctuations.This study examines the short-term and long-term dynamics among food prices, the exchange rate, and oil prices in Turkey between January 2003-December 2021 using the non-linear autoregressive distribute lag (NARDL) method. Compared to other linear techniques, the NARDL method decomposes the changes in oil prices and exchange rate into their partial sums and then provides separate estimates for the impact changes in these variables have on food prices. This study focuses on the nonlinear relationship among food prices, oil prices, and the exchange rate in Turkey and reveals the effects from oil prices and exchange rates on food prices by taking into account the asymmetric effects. The empirical results from the NARDL method, which allows decomposition of the effects from positive and negative changes, reveal the presence of a long-term cointegration relationship. While using the NARDL method in the study, the positive and negative components in oil prices and the exchange rate were seen to decompose in different ways. The study uses the Hodrick–Prescott (HP, 1997) filter alongside this method to decompose the independent variables (i.e., oil prices and exchange rate) into their positive and negative components. The study first extracted the trend component of the variables using the HP filter then constructs the variables according to the positive and negative components regarding this trend. The results from the NARDL model have revealed the estimated food prices to be sensitive to changes in the exchange rate and oil prices, the positive and negative changes regarding the long-term trend to not have the same effects; therefore, asymmetric effects are present regarding food prices. Positive changes regarding the long-term trend in oil prices and the exchange rate were additionally concluded to have a greater effect on food prices compared to the negative changes. The fact that positive changes in oil prices are more dominant than negative changes is an expected situation in oil-dependent countries such as Turkey. Other additional reasons why the positive shocks in the exchange rate are higher than the negative shocks result from the inputs used in food production processes (including oil) being obtained through imports and from foreign exchange income being dependent on tourism revenues and short-term foreign direct capital rather than high technology product exports. The effects from positive shocks on the explanatory variables used in the analysis can be said to generally have deeper impacts on food prices in Turkey compared to negative shocks.&nbsp;

Türkiye’de Gıda Fiyatları, Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki  Asimetrik İlişki

Muhammet

COVID-19 has affected the whole world economically in addition to human health. The measures taken have completely changed social and economic life, with many sectors having been forced to stop or slow down due to restrictions. Turkey is one of the countries whose economy has most felt the effects of the global pandemic. These effects were observed to manifest in different ways with regard to the line of business and sector. While some branches of activity have experienced expansion, others may have experienced contraction. These changes have also had global as well as local effects. When considering that the disease came to the fore in the world as of the end of 2019, examining 2020 in comparison with 2019 will allow the first effects of the crisis to be seen.This study aims to take a different view of the changes experienced by the Turkish economy due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the number of workplaces and the number of employees with compulsory insurance with respect to province for the years 2019 and 2020. Turkey has regions with different characteristics due to its geographical and economic structure. The economic activity structure of each province may differ, and the local effects are thought to be revealable by examining the provinces.This study uses the statistical data analysis and data mining techniques of multidimensional scaling and clustering analyses with the support of data visualization as the research methods. The cross-industry standard process for data mining (CRISPDM) model was used in the design of the study’s method section. The steps of CRISPDM are as follows: 1) define the problem, 2) understand the data, 3) prepare the data, 4) set up the model, 5) evaluate and select the model, and 6) apply the model.The study’s dataset consists of the variables of the number of workplaces in the economic operating segments and the number of insured workers with respect to each of Turkey’s provinces. The study used the data published by the Republic of Turkey Social Security Institution (SGK) for the years 2019 and 2020. When comparing the data from the two years, the numbers of workplaces and employees with compulsory insurance are seen to have increased overall.The steps taken while preparing the data for analysis are as follows: Because some provinces have no workplaces regarding certain operating segments, missing data were first arranged. For this purpose, the data for the operating segments were first obtained without omitting any of these areas by collecting the information for the segments where data were available in each province. In addition, operating segments with missing data were deleted and a data set was obtained with the remaining 47 operating segments. Because the aim of the study is to examine the changes that occurred in the operating segments due to COVID-19’s impact, new variables were obtained by transforming these datasets and dividing the 2020 values with the 2019 values. The new datasets obtained with these ratios were used in the multidimensional scaling and clustering analyses.Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is a multivariate data analysis approach used to visualize similarities and uniqueness between samples by turning units into points and plotting them on k-dimensional graphs. The MDS algorithm takes as input data a similarity or differences/dissimilarity matrix representing the distances between pairs of objects. In cases where this matrix (i.e., the distance matrix) can be obtained, metric scaling can be performed. In metric scaling, the original distances between objects and the distances on the map that have been calculated by scaling are scaled the same. This study has preferred the Euclidean Squared distance metrics.Cluster analysis is a method that aims to group objects or variables in the data matrix according to the values they take. When clustering, the distance or similarity matrix is firstcreated using the distance and similarity measures from the data matrix. Clusters are then created using the determined clustering method. Clustering methods are divided into hierarchical and non-hierarchical. In non-hierarchical methods, the number of clusters is determined in advance, and a single optimal clustering result is obtained according to the number of clusters determined using distance or similarity measures. This study uses the k-means algorithm, which is one of these methods. The Euclidean Squared distance metric was used as the metric distance. In this way, the study aims to use the outputs from the two analyses by overlapping them.The analyzes were interpreted through visual mappings obtained in 2-dimensional space. In addition, the findings were made more understandable by comparing them with the values in the data set. According to the analysis findings, the pandemic has had a striking impact with regard to operating segments. The numbers of workplaces and employees were observed to have decreased with regard to the operating segments that are based on mobility or that had been prohibited due to pandemic restrictions and measures. The measures that were taken were determined to have caused high increases in postal and cargo operations as well as home care operations.&nbsp;

Ekonomik Faaliyet Kollarında COVID-19 Pandemi Etkisinin Çok  Boyutlu Ölçekleme ve K-Ortalamalar Kümeleme Analiziyle  İncelenmesi

Hatice

Özlem

Association Rules Mining on Retail Data

Neslihan

This study investigates the relationship between environmental degradation and democracy in 37 OECD countries. The dataset covers the period of 1995-2018. The literature on environmental degradation can be classified as follows: The first group of studies investigates the relationship between environmental degradation and its economic indicators, and the second group focuses on the relationship between environmental degradation and its political indicators. While some of these studies state democracy to increase environmental degradation, other studies argue opposite, with democracy decreasing environmental pollution.&nbsp;No consensus is observed to exist regarding how democracy impacts environmental degradation. Using this motivation, this study focuses on the political determinants of environmental degradation, unlike the existing literature which has mainly focused on the economic determinants of environmental pollution. This study examines the relationship between democracy and greenhouse gas emissions per capita in 37 OECD countries over 1995-2018 the period using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimator.Many studies are found to have examined the determinants of environmental degradation. A significant portion of these studies has analyzed the impacts of economic factors such as economic growth, trade openness, and globalization on environmental pollution. While some of these studies (Jalil &amp; Mahmud, 2009; Lau et al., 2014; Destek et al., 2016; Doğan &amp; Turkekul, 2016; Shahbaz et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2017; Pata, 2019; Ling et al., 2021; used carbon emissions as a proxy for environmental degradation, a second group of studies (Ahmed et al., 2019; Apaydın et al., 2021; Apaydın, 2020) used the ecological footprint index. However, very little research is found in the literature regarding political determinants on environmental degradation, such as democracy. While some of these studies have argued democracy to positively affect environmental degradation, others have argued a negative relationship to exist between democracy and the environment. Studies such as those from Binder and Neumayer (2005), Li and Reuveny (2006), Bernauer and Kaubi (2004; 2009), Romuald (2016), and Hotunluoğlu and Yılmaz (2018) have shown democracy to reduce environmental pollution. However, a few studies such as those from Brenna (2015), and Gallagher and Thacker (2008) have argued democracy to have a positive or negligible impact on the environment.The results from the cointegration test show a long term relationship to exist among the variables. According to the CCEMG results, democracy has a positive and statistically significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions per capita. Alongside this, the study also uses renewable energy consumption, income per capita, and urban population as control variables. The results show the impacts of income per capita and urban population to not be statistically significant, while also showing a negative and significant relationship to exist between democracy and renewable energy consumption.This study investigates the impact of democracy on greenhouse gas emissions per capita over the period 1995-2018 for 37 OECD countries. The results show democracy to be positively related to greenhouse gas emissions per capita. An increase in democracy levels increases greenhouse gas emissions per capita. Meanwhile, democracy leads to environmental degradation. On the other hand, an increase in renewable energy consumption levels decreases greenhouse gas emissions per capita in OECD countries, as expected. An increase in the percentage that renewable energy makes up overall energy consumption increases quality of the environment. Therefore, countries with high renewable energy consumption are able to provide a sustainable solution to environmental problems. According to the other important finding from the study, an increase in democracy increases the amount of greenhouse gas emissions per capita. This result supports the approaches claimed by studies such as those from Drzek (1987) and Bernauer and Koubi (2004), which showed democracy to increase environmental degradation. Therefore, regulatory institutions are able to reduce the negative impact that democracy has on environmental quality by limiting the power lawmakers have to permit excessive resource use. An ecological constitution may also be prepared in order to ensure the sustainability of environmental policies as well as to prevent the problem of political myopia.&nbsp;

OECD Ülkelerinde Demokrasinin Çevresel Bozulma Üzerindeki Etkisi

Nazan

Öğretim Görevlisi Dr.

Due to financial liberalization processes, capital flow has gained an international attribution since the 1980s. Based on the developments in information and communication technologies since 2000s, the access to financial instruments has become easier and the range of assets in financial markets has continued to expand.According to Markowitz’s (1952) modern portfolio theory, which marked a milestone in the history of modern finance, investors make decisions based on risk and income preferences within the diversity of financial markets. Measuring the risk and uncertainty levels of financial assets is explained through the term volatility. Volatility is defined as the upward and downward movements in the prices of financial assets (Hepsağ, 2013, p. 3). The reason for volatility regarding financial assets is not always just a result of fluctuations in their own prices but is also a result of other financial markets due to volatility spillover. Volatility spillover defines the interaction levels financial markets have with each other and shows a significant increase in times of crisis in particular.During periods of uncertainty, the first instrument that investors prefer both in the world and in Turkey is gold, and this is related to its attribute as being the most well-known and trusted asset in society. In addition to gold, the increasing trend sees investors also preferring to diversify their portfolios in commodity markets and other main investment instruments such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market in order to increase income and decrease risk. Examining the interactions of financial instruments in terms of volatility spillover mechanisms is crucial when diversifying a portfolio.Meanwhile, the analysis of financial market interactions is one of the indicators that policy makers should follow, with great emphasis on the stability of financial systems. This study aims to investigate the interaction and volatility spillover effect among the foreign exchange market, the gold market, and the stock exchange in Turkey. The study has chosen the post-2000 period as global crises and regulations regarding monetary policies as well as the banking sector have occurred during this period. The research uses daily data between January 17, 2000 and August 31, 2022.&nbsp;The study examines the volatility spillover effects among the US Dollar, the Euro, gold, and the BIST 100 using Diebold and Yılmaz’s (2012) approach. This model was introduced to the literature through Diebold and Yılmaz’s (2009, 2012) articles.According to the obtained findings, the volatility spillover index was found to be 46.9% among the US Dollar, the Euro, gold, and the BIST 100. During the post2000 period under discussion here, the lowest volatility level occurred in 2012, an immediate increase occurred in 2013, and an increasing trend in the volatility spillover effect has been occurring since 2017. Due to the global pandemic, the increase in spillover effect has been ongoing since 2020.The US Dollar has been observed to function generally as a volatility transmitter financial asset; namely, increases and decreases in the volatility of the US Dollar affect other markets. The Euro was seen to be a volatility transmitter financial asset until the 2008 global crisis; between 2008 and 2013 it functioned as a volatility receiver then became a volatility transmitter asset after 2014. The volatility of Gold is seen to usually be affected by the volatility of other financial assets. Recently, the volatility of gold was concluded to affect the volatility of other financial assets and to have functioned as a volatility transmitter financial asset due to the increases in the price of gold. The BIST 100 Index was observed to be a volatility receiving financial asset in general. It was effective in regard to the volatility of other financial assets between 2008-2013. In terms of bilateral interactions nearly throughout the whole period, gold was determined to have been affected by the volatility of the US Dollar; the US Dollar was determined to have affected the volatility of the BIST 100 except for the 2008-2013 period. Meanwhile, a spillover effect occurred from gold toward the BIST 100, especially in recent years. Among the volatility interactions of the examined financial assets, the volatility of the BIST 100 can be said to be the one with the least effect.The research findings have revealed the interactions among the US Dollar, the Euro, gold, and the BIST 100 in the post-2000 period as well as the volatility spillover effect in Turkey. Determining the spillover effect can be used as a warning system against economic crises. In addition, the study has empirically shown how financial stress negatively affects stability. Within this scope, investors will be able to minimize their losses by diversifying their portfolios.&nbsp;

Türkiye’de 2000 Yılı Sonrasında Altın, Borsa, Döviz Kuru Piyasaları  Etkileşimi ve Volatilite Yayılım Etkisi

Müge

Fama (1970)’s efficient market hypothesis argues all the information that occurs in this market to be instantly and correctly reflected in the prices of financial assets, with no investor able to obtain abnormal returns. According to this view, no asymmetric use of information occurs, and all research on efficient market theory is concerned with whether prices fully reflect certain subsets of information. Market efficiency is a theory that has been the subject of much debate and study in the finance literature.This study analyzes market efficiency in accordance with the information taxonomy, which is categorized into three increasingly inclusive subsets, with the first considering the weak form of market efficiency, in which the information reflected in the prices consists of already observed historical prices. In this market type, an investor investing in the market is argued to be unable to expect abnormal returns in the future using historical data because the prices already reflect all that information, and it doesn’t provide a framework for any systematic abnormal returns. The second taxonomy considers the semi-strong form of market efficiency, in which prices reflect all past and current available information. As such, the information set is extended by including things such as current firm announcements and analysis reports into the precious information set. The third taxonomy conducts the strongform efficiency test to statistically prove or disprove whether investors with access to private or insider information are able to systematically achieve abnormal returns.This study will test weak form efficiency by analyzing whether the BIST1000 stock market index complies with the random walk process. The data range covers the period of October 2011-October 2021, with the data being composed of the closing index values at daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies.This study conducts the runs test, variance ratio test, traditional linear unit root test, structural break unit root test, nonlinear unit root test in order to test whether the series complies with the random walk hypothesis. The linear unit root and stationarity tests include the augmented Dickey-Fuller (1981), Phillips-Perron (1988), and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS, 1992) tests, while the unit root tests with structural breaks include the the Perron (1989), Zivot-Andrews (1992), LeeStrazicich (2003), and Kapetanios et al. (2003) nonlinear unit root tests. The runs test deals with whether the residuals are positive or negative, with the assumption that the residuals are independently distributed. The variance ratio test is used to test whether a random walk occurs in a series that is robust in terms of both constant variance and non-constant variance. The study uses the programs RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series), EViews, and Stata for the tests.According to the results, the price series at each frequency contain unit roots, and the variance ratio and runs tests support the unpredictability of the returns. As a result, analysis of the Bist100 index at daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies reveal&nbsp;the market to have a structure that supports the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis. Although this study found no difference in the results regarding different frequencies, no surprise would be had if divergent results were observed even for the same time series, as has been discussed in the literature. The ups and downs within each month were not observable due to the closing daily observation at the end of month being recorded as a monthly BIST100 data point. For example, the Perron test allows for a unit root with a structural break and revealed the BIST100 to exhibit its lowest reading as well as a structural break on March 23, 2020, which also coincides with the official start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey.For this reason, having individuals deal with the frequencies of the price series according to the maturity structure they have planned while investing would be a good decision. In this way, investors will be able to measure return and risk more accurately in the portfolios they have created. Investors who are unable to find a profitable opportunity in an efficient market can choose their investment preferences using an analysis that will detect the deviations in the price series with regard to their shortterm investment strategies. Checking the dynamics of international stock markets as well as BIST100 stocks would be additionally useful. Moreover, this study believes that future research should focus on nonlinear situations in the stock markets of other developing countries in order to better understand the extent to which information plays a role in portfolio strategies. The fact that investors in stock markets that do not comply with the random walk process and therefore do not provide the efficient market hypothesis are able to benefit from profitable opportunities in these markets through the arbitrage process is also worth mentioning. In summary, the results show that investors are not likely to systematically make profits using historical information on the BIST100; therefore, investors should base their investment strategies on this assumption.&nbsp;

Etkin Piyasa Hipotezinin Yapısal Kırılmalı ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim  Kök Testleri ile Analizi: Borsa İstanbul Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Burak

@JOURNAL_BOX_CURRENT

Ahmet

Gökhan

Health indicators are also used to evaluate a nation’s level of development and well-being, in addition to economic indicators. The infant mortality rates of the most commonly used countries are one of these indicators. Infant mortality rates, accepted as a component of the physical quality of life index, are an essential indicator of a country’s health and development level. Therefore, research conducted by considering these and similar health indicators help to make inferences about the country, community, or region under consideration, as it shows good public health and quality. In this study, the determinants of infant mortality were examined with the data of 2019 for NUTS-2 for Turkey. For this purpose, the spatial regression approach was used to include the spatial interaction between regions in the modeling process.The number of women who gave birth under the age of 15 (yas15), the Gini coefficient (gini), the percentage of women over the age of 15 participating in the workforce (isgucu), the total number of hospital beds per hundred thousand people (kbyatak), number of primary school graduate women aged 15 and over (ilkokul) and number of high school graduate women aged 15 and over (lise) were included in the model as independent variables.The spatial weight matrix allows the spatial regression approach to integrating spatial effects into the model. In the study, row standardization was used along with the development of a spatial weight matrix based on rook contiguity. In the first step, the OLS model was estimated, and the existence of spatial autocorrelation in errors was investigated with the Moran-I test. According to the results of the OLS model, only isgucu was statistically significant. When the regional distribution of bebekol is examined on the map, it is thought that there may be a spatial interaction since it is observed that there are clusters. In this respect, the Moran-I test was applied to the residuals of the OLS model in the first step to determine the spatial autocorrelation. According to the test result, positive spatial autocorrelation was found in the residuals.LM tests were used to select the suitable model. As a result of the test, it was decided that the suitable model was the SEM model. The variables that were statistically insignificant in the OLS model then started to become significant in the estimated SEM model. The spatial error parameter λ is statistically significant. In addition, since the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) is lower in the SEM model, it is concluded that the performance of this model is better. Finally, when the significance of the spatial error parameter was tested with the Likelihood Ratio (LR) test, it was confirmed that it should be included in the model.According to the SEM model, a 1% increase in the number of women who gave birth under the age of 15, the Gini coefficient, and the number of primary school graduate women caused an increase of 0.124%, 0.803%, and 0.647%, respectively. Although the 1% increase in the number of high school graduate women seems to cause an increase of 0.316% in infant mortality, it can be said that there is a decrease in infant mortality rates by about half when compared to the number of primary school graduates. The 1% increase in isgucu and kbyatak variables causes a 0.852% and 0.616% decrease in infant mortality, respectively. The spatial error term coefficient is 0.866 and is statistically significant.When the SEM model’s findings are considered generally, it is clear that income inequality between regions is the main cause of an increase in infant mortality. Another factor is the mother’s education level. There is a decrease in infant mortality with the increase in education level. On the other hand, the increase in the number of women giving birth under the age of 15 causes an increase in infant mortality. In this respect, by supporting women in their education, pregnancies under the age of 15 can be prevented, and regional development can be achieved through qualified participation in the labor market. Thus, it is possible to observe decreases in regional income inequality as regions grow. Therefore, it is evident from this research that increasing the mother’s academic achievement is crucial for reducing infant mortality. Moreover, improving the health system and conditions through investments in the health sector will similarly reduce infant mortality.&nbsp;

Mekânsal Ekonometri Analizi ile Türkiye’de Bölgeler Arası Bebek  Ölüm Oranı Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Nadide

The degree to which the inputs are used effectively in current production technology is determined by the production function, which shows the functional relationship between the output and inputs used in production. Converting inputs into output takes place under a specific production technology. The maximum output obtained under a specific input composition or the minimum input composition needed to achieve a specific output level determines the upper frontier of production possibilities. Economic units produce at or below this frontier. Technical efficiency is achieved when the input-output composition defined by the production function is located at a point on the production frontier. Technical inefficiency is defined as a situation where a difference occurs between the maximum output values of the production technology and the actual observed production values, with the coefficient of technical efficiency taking values between 0 and 1 otherwise. A country’s inefficiency and production losses increase as this value approaches 0, while a value of 1 indicates that the country is producing at the production frontier and using its full production potential. Economic units produce at a technically inefficient point and so cannot use their current potential effectively. In this case, production losses are experienced, and production being able to be increased by activating this potential. Technical efficiency and the capacity to absorb the existing technology of economies is an essential factor that increases the speed of catching up with developed economies with high per capita income. However, achieving the potential level of output contained in the production technology (i.e., increasing technical efficiency) is subject to countries’ limitations in absorbing existing technology.This study aims to estimate the efficiency of using the available resources and technology of BRICS-T countries. In this context, the production limit is modelled using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) within the scope of a panel dataset consisting of six countries for the period of 1990-2019. The production frontier and technical inefficiency determinants are estimated by a one-stage method. In addition, the technical inefficiency and the variances related to technical inefficiency and statistical error in the model are defined as a function of the variables of countries’ populations and export-import ratios. The study has determined that these variables do not significantly affect technical inefficiency but do have a significant effect on the variances related to technical inefficiency and the statistical error term. The results show the average level of technical efficiency during the analysis period to be 91% and countries to have lost 9% of their potential output. Turkey was determined to have ranked first and Russia last in terms of the average coefficient of technical efficiency for countries during the analyzed period, with Turkey’s production loss due to inefficiency being 3.4% and Russia’s was 23.3%. Meanwhile, technical efficiency decreased an average of 0.064% annually during the analysis period. The other countries experienced efficiency losses during the analysis period, while Russia’s technical efficiency increased by 0.74%. According to the study results, Russia’s compliance with the current level of technology, therefore, increased during the analysis period and its production losses due to inefficiency decreased.This finding indicates that the BRICS-T countries’ adaptation to existing technologies to have gradually decreased, and production losses due to inefficiency to have increased. The production losses due to inefficiency as well as the efficiency decreases observed during the analysis period, show an important opportunity to exist for economies to use their potential more effectively in terms of sustainable economic growth. The countries’ performances regarding to adapting to technologies require educational processes involving new technologies being learned and taught, as well as precise, predictable social, political, and economic structures.&nbsp;

Teknik Etkinsizlik Kaynaklı Üretim Kayıpları: BRICS-T Ülkeleri  Örneğinde Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Testing Linear and Nonlinear Relationships Between Foreign Direct  Investment and Fossil Energy Consumption in Fragile Five Countries

@JOURNAL_BOX_EARLYVIEW

Tuğba

Gökçe

Nowadays, there are many investment tools in the financial markets to assess the savings of individual investors. The diversity of investment instruments in the market makes it difficult for investors to make decisions about evaluating savings. Furthermore, developments and uncertainties in the economy affect the individual investor’s investment decision. In the economy, individuals use part of their income for consumption expenditures and savings. Individuals who make savings are evaluated byvarious investment instruments in order to make a profit. In this process, the main objective of investors is to obtain the highest return with minimum risk. Investors evaluate their savings in investment instruments with a certain expectation of return. The existence of many investment instruments in the economy reveals the issue of which investment instrument the investor should use. A balanced distribution of investor accumulation in multiple investment instruments instead of a single investment instrument will provide protection against fluctuations in the markets. Throughout the history of finance, studies have been conducted on how markets affect individual investment preferences. Investors follow the political, economic and social situations in the markets to make the right investment decision. There are many investment tools for transferring the idle resources to the financial system. Financial investment instruments provide the opportunity for individuals who make savings to protect their capital and earn money. For this reason, financial decisions are important in the efficient functioning of the market. All future financial decisions include uncertainty. The uncertainty of the future makes investors’ decision difficult. The financial decisions of investors who wish to use their savings in various investment instruments are important in the efficient management of funds in the economy. Decisions have a significant impact on financial markets. Monetary loss or profit as a result of the investment makes it difficult for investors to make decisions. Individual investors aim to achieve the highest risk with the lowest risk in financial investment decisions. If the risk of a financial investment instrument is high, the expectation of high return on this investment instrument increases. Traditional finance theories are based on the principle that individuals make decisions by acting rationally. Individual investors make a rational choice of financial investment instruments in their investment decisions and strive for maximum return on their savings. Since investors are rational, they analyze decisions in financial investment instruments rationally. However, in this process, the investor encounters many factors affecting the investment decision in the market. The decisions taken affect the outcome of the investment either positively or negatively. Therefore, the evaluation of the criteria affecting the investment decision has been included in many academic researches.&nbsp;In this study, the importance of the criteria affecting the investment decisions of the investors trading in financial markets is analyzed. The aim of this study is to compare the criteria that the financial investment decision makers take into consideration in the decision-making process. The criteria included in the study; Global Markets, Domestic Financial Indicators, Investment Instrument Characteristics and Analysis Techniques Used. The aim of this study is to reveal the economic, social, investment instrument characteristics and analysis techniques that are useful in the process of evaluating the savings of individual investors in financial investment instruments. The purpose of this study is to provide a new perspective by evaluating the relationships between the criteria affecting investment decision with the Fuzzy DEMATEL method. In addition to the support from the literature, my financial work experience contributed to my study in the process of determining the criteria included in the study. In this study, the Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used and the opinions of 10 experts responsible for financial decisions were taken. As a result of the findings obtained from the opinions of the experts based on the criteria, the most important criterion among the criteria was revealed to be Technical analysis. Investors pay attention to past price movements of investment instruments in decision-making. The second criterion that was given importance among the criteria was Global markets. After the financial globalization, all the information related to the economic and political situation of countries affect the values of the investment instruments in the market.

Belirsizlik Şartlarında Yatırım Karar Analizine Etki Eden Faktörlerin Bulanık DEMATEL Yaklaşımıyla Değerlendirilmesi

Mustafa

Fatma

Öğretim Görevlisi

As a result of the convergence hypothesis that the growth rates of developing and underdeveloped countries will be higher than those of developed countries, underdeveloped and developing countries will catch up with developed countries. In other words, the real gross domestic product of all countries will be equalized after a certain period of time. This idea is basically based on the law of decreasing yields. As a result of the capital increase of developed countries, which have reached the saturation point in terms of capital, the output increase rate is below the output increase rate as a result of the capital increase of underdeveloped and developing countries, which are insufficient in terms of capital. The basis of the convergence hypothesis is based on Solow (1956). Until Solow’s work, an acceptable theoretical explanation could not be given to this phenomenon, which was voiced by many theorists prior to Solow. The basis of the convergence hypothesis is based on Solow (1956). Moreover, most of the growth models are directly or indirectly based on the Solow model. There are multiple types of convergence tested in the literature. Earlier models did not distinguish between old and new technology, and looked at both old and new technology with one vision. The introduction of technological progress means that there is a difference in the efficiency of old and new technology. Thus, the model means that only physical capital accumulation cannot bring about growth per capita or increase the amount of production. In particular, given a microeconomic specification of technologies and preferences, the per capita output in an economy will approach the same level, regardless of initial capital (Timakova, 2011). When comparing different economies, it means that for economies with the same technologies and preferences, the difference in production per capita will be temporary.The Solow growth model is the first to present convergence. It has deeply influenced the way economists conceptualize long-term relationships between macroeconomics. According to this hypothesis within the neo-classical growth theory approaches, the income of the less developed countries will reach the level of developed countries after a while. That is, the exact definition of convergence is to achieve the same fixed income level. Convergence hypothesis studies generally use external theory (Rivas ve Villarroya, 2017). Because the concept of convergence emerged, if different countries have the same preferences and technology, it can be said that the poorer countries tend to grow faster than the rich countries, especially in the presence of accumulated factors, particularly the decrease in marginal returns in capital use. Each country will reach its own stable state, but the differences in the per capita income will be reduced. When the rich and poor countries reach the same fixed income level, another possible solution can be seen. The hypothesis of convergence of incomes of underdeveloped countries to incomes of developed countries is a hypothesis frequently tested in the literature. Different types of convergence hypothesis can be tested in terms of econometrics. In this study, the convergence of annual income series of the EU member countries, covering the period of 1960-2018, was examined and the stochastic convergence hypothesis, one of the convergence types, was tested with panel unit root tests based on SUR models. The ADF and KSS panel unit root tests based on SUR models. The ADF and KSS panel unit root tests are second generation panel unit root tests. The ADF and KSS panel unit root tests take into account the cross-sectional dependency and allow for an explanation of each unit separately. In this study, using SURADF and SURKSS unit root tests, the convergence status of the EU member countries to the group average of the EU was examined, and results were given about whether the convergence hypothesis is valid for each country separately.

AB Ülkelerinin Yakınsaması: Suradf ve Surkss Birim Kök Test

@JOURNAL_BOX_FEATURED

Kevser

Selay

This study evaluates the relations between economic performance, democracy index and economic freedoms, which are widely discussed in economic theory. The aim of this study is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of democracy index and economic freedoms on economic performance. The study was conducted with the data of 45 European countries for 2017. Data from countries with insufficient information was excluded from the analysis. Data on the economic freedom variable The Heritage Foundation, from the link: https://www.heritage.org/index/ explore?view=by-region-country year &amp; u = 636967067347971774), also contains data on the democracy index variable. The democracy index report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) can be found at the link: https://pages.eiu. com/rs/753-RIQ 438 / images / Democracy_Index_2017.pdf). Data for the economic performance variable were obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (World Bank) database. The concept of freedom can encompass many different definitions of the idea of economic freedom. Some of these definitions are as follows: Economic freedom consists of a combination of property rights and the protection of individuals, the right to make individual choices and the freedom to compete (Gwartney ve Lawson, 2003, p.406). The concept of economic freedom therefore can be understood to mean that people voluntarily engage in consumption and investment activities at any time without the control and restrictions of the state, that their rights are under state protection and that they participate in the labor force (Şenalp, 2018, p.319). When democracy is defined as a political system, it is a regime in which all adults have the right to vote, where candidates in the election can freely compete, and through periodic elections, decision makers come to power with strong authority (Huntington, 1984, p.195). Democracy also provides freedom and the possibility of self-determination (Schwartz, 1993, p.552). A two-stage approach was used to determine the consistency of the data used in the study with the research hypotheses (Anderson and Gerbing, 1988). In the first step,&nbsp;the measurement model was tested to determine whether the observed variables in the model accurately measured the latent variables to which they belong. This stage of the analysis is considered as Confirmatory Factor Analysis. If the indicator variables that make latent variables measurable do not accurately measure the constructed structure, the next step, the structural model, will not need to be tested. For this reason, the measurement model must meet the requirements for compliance. The second stage includes the testing of the structural model (Huchting, Lac and Labrie, 2008, p.543). When the model was evaluated according to the obtained t-values, there was a direct relationship between economic freedom and democracy index, and between democracy index and economic performance, while no direct relationship was found between economic freedom and economic performance. This suggests that the index of democracy may be a mediating variable. In order to evaluate the mediation effect, a significant relationship was found between economic freedom and economic performance. When the index of democracy is included in the model, the value of the path coefficient between these two variables decreases and the path becomes meaningless. In this case, it can be said that the index of democracy fully mediates the relationship between economic freedom and economic performance. In other words, the relationship between economic freedom and economic performance is indirectly realized through the democracy index. The fact that there is a direct relationship between economic freedom and democracy index and democracy index and economic performance supports the mediating effect (Judd and Kenny, 1981, pp. 605-606; Baron and Kenny, 1986, p.1176-1177). This study shows that economic performance and economic freedom, which are the determinants of the institutional structure for European countries, can be increased with economic performance and economic freedoms in order to improve democracy. For sustainable economic performance, countries should strengthen and add importance to their institutional structures. Countries aiming to increase their economic performance should set policies to increase their democracies and economic freedoms. Since the findings obtained belong to a certain group of countries, they cannot be generalized for all countries of the world. In future studies, analyses can be made for different country groups and time periods. The results obtained by using different analysis programs and different estimation methods can then be compared. The sub-components of economic freedom affect the environment and functioning of the market and contribute to the development of democracy, with the effect it has on entrepreneurship. Furthermore, individual commercial activities positively affect economic performance.

Yapısal Eşitlik Modeli ile Özgürlüklerin Ekonomik Performansa Etkisi Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Mücahit

Purchasing power parity (PPP), which is one of the subjects of interest in international finance and economy, is defined as a rate of change that equalizes the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating price level differences between countries (TURKSTAT, 2008). In other words, the theory of purchasing power parity states that the nominal exchange rate between the two currencies is determined by the purchasing power of each country’s currency. This means that the exchange rate between the two countries must be equal to a fixed level of goods and services basket price of the two currencies. While economists generally doubt the validity of PPP in the short term, they agree that it is necessary to investigate whether PPP is valid in the long term because price differences between countries are not sustainable in the long term (Acaravcı and Öztürk, 2010). Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) evaluated the importance of purchasing power parity in terms of both traditional and new approaches to open economy macroeconomics for policy purposes. According to the traditional approach, the validity of PPP is valuable information for policy-makers who want to evaluate the effects of devaluation since the effects of devaluation under PPP on competitiveness will be eliminated in the long term. In open economies with new approaches, PPP is a necessary condition for equalizing market integrity and marginal utility. Empirical studies use cointegration tests, variance ratio tests, and quantitative regressions for nominal exchange rates and prices, and unit root tests for real exchange rates, to assess the validity of PPP. (Chortareas and Kapetanios, 2009; 391). The estimation of PPP exchange rates is very important for practical purposes. These objectives are; (i) determining the degree of deviation from the nominal exchange rate, ie determining whether the exchange rate is low or not. (ii) making appropriate policy decisions; (iii) adjusting currency parities; (iv) an international comparison of national income levels; and (v) a comparison between domestic price and foreign price (Sarno and Taylor, 2002). Whether PPP is valid or not should be examined. Where PPP is not valid, PPP cannot be used as a criterion for international income level comparison and estimation of real exchange rates, and where applicable, it can be used as a criterion for the level of development comparisons and the reliability of all economic decisions (Güriş et al. 2016). . In this study, the validity of purchasing power parity was examined using Fourier unit root tests for Turkey for the period 1992:01-2018:12. In order to make a comparison, two different recently developed unit root tests were used in the study. The study is expected to contribute to the current literature in terms of the method used. The studies for Turkey is as follows; Gurbuz and Hasgur (1997), Telatar and Kazdagli (1998), Erlat (2003), Yazgan (2003), Alba and Park (2005), Aslan and Kanbur (2007), Ozdemir (2008), Kalyoncu (2009), Lightning and Lightning (2012), Sener et al. (2015), Güriş et al. (2016), Rock and Steel (2018). In cases where series do not have a linear structure, nonlinear unit root tests give more powerful results than linear unit root tests. In the literature, there are unit root tests examining stationarity structures of nonlinear series. In this study, Güris (2018) and Ranjbar et al. (2018) non-linear Fourier unit root tests were used. Firstly, the linearity of the calculated real exchange rate series was examined and it was found that it does not have a linear structure. In the second part of the empirical analysis, the stationarity of the series was examined with the help of Fourier unit root tests. The obtained results indicate that Turkey has a stationary structure in the real exchange rate series. Accordingly, it is seen that the PPP hypothesis is valid for Turkey. In other words, the analyzed period, the real exchange rate being stationary and Turkey coming to the real exchange rate shocks are temporary. The validity of PPP means that the prices of goods expressed in the same currency are the same anywhere in the world. Therefore, PPP is expected to play an active role in the monetary policy decision for Turkey.

Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Hipotezi Geçerliliğinin Fourier Birim Kök Testleri ile İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

@JOURNAL_BOX_MOSTREAD

Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics yılda iki kez olmak üzere, her 6 ayda bir yayınlanmaktadır.

Dergimiz ölçme, tahmin, test, tahmin ve politika analizi konularını kapsayan, ekonomi ve ilgili konularda olmak üzere yeni ekonometrik tekniklerin uygulanması ile ilgili yüksek kaliteli makaleler yayınlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Ekonometrik tekniklerin dikkatli ve titiz bir şekilde uygulanması ile elde edilen sonuçların uygun yorumlanması üzerinde durulmaktadır. Makalelerde ekonomik içerik üzerinde vurgu yapılmalıdır. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics başta Ekonometri, istatistik ve Yöneylem Araştırması olmak üzere yüksek kaliteli araştırmalar yayınlamaktadır. Uzmanlık alanlarına deyinen, ulaşılabilir teknikleri içeren ve diğer araştırmacılar tarafından kolayca tekrarlanabilen, ekonomide yenilikçi, niceliksel araştırmalar için bir çıkış sağlamaktır. Tüm gönderimler farklı hakemler tarafından inceleme sürecine tabidir.

RePEc IDEAS

ProQuest

RePEc EconPapers

ERIH PLUS

TR Dizin

DOAJ

SOBIAD

Cabells Journalytics

@METRIC_VOLUMES

@METRIC_ISSUES

@METRIC_ARTICLES

@METRIC_OPENACCESS

Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics

Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics is published twice a year, every 6 months. Our journal aims to publish high quality articles on the application of new econometric techniques, including economics and related topics, covering measurement, forecasting, testing, forecasting and policy analysis. Appropriate interpretation of the results obtained by careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques is emphasized. Emphasis should be stressed on economic content in articles.

Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics publishes high quality research, mainly in the fields of Econometrics, Statistics and operations research. To provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics, which includes achievable techniques and can be easily repeated by other researchers. All submissions are subject to a double blind review process.  EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics has been published as a "peer-reviewed journal" every six months since 2005. The language of the journal is English and Turkish. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged.

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Editor in Chief

Co Editor in Chief

Editorial Relations Manager

Editorial Assistant

Technical Specialist

Language Editor

Editorial Board Member

Advisory Board Member

@INFO_TAB_BOARDS

Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics is published twice a year, every 6 months.Our journal aims to publish high quality articles on the application of new econometric techniques, including economics and related topics, covering measurement, forecasting, testing, forecasting and policy analysis.Appropriate interpretation of the results obtained by careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques is emphasized.Emphasis should be stressed on economic content in articles.Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics publishes high quality research, mainly in the fields of Econometrics, Statistics and operations research.To provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics, which includes achievable techniques and can be easily repeated by other researchers.All submissions are subject to a double blind review process.Istanbul University, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics has been published as a &#34;peer-reviewed journal&#34; every six months since 2005.The language of the journal is English and Turkish.Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged.

Aim and Scope

TUBITAK-ULAKBIM TR Index ProQuest CentralDOAJERIH PLUS  <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/s/ist/ekoist.html" target="_blank">RePEc IDEAS</a> <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/istekoist/" target="_blank">RePEc EconPapers </a><a href="http://atif.sobiad.com/index.jsp?modul=dergi-sayfasi&amp;ID=0&amp;magazinename=Ekoist:%20Journal%20of%20Econometrics%20and%20Statistics" target="_blank">SOBIAD</a>Cabells Journalytics

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All expenses of the journal are covered by the Istanbul University. Processing and publication are free of charge with the journal. There is no article processing charges or submission fees for any submitted or accepted articles.

Authors publishing with the journal retain the copyright to their work licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC 4.0</a>) (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/</a>  ) and grant the Publisher non-exclusive commercial right to publish the work. CC BY-NC 4.0 license permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Editor should consider publishing correction if minor errors that do not effect the results, interpretations and conclusions of the published paper are detected. Editor should consider retraction if major errors and/or misconduction that invalidate results and conclusions are detected.Editor should consider issuing an expression of concern if there is evidence of research or publication misconduct by the authors; there is evidence that the findings are not reliable and institutions of the authors do not investigate the case or the possible investigation seems to be unfair or nonconclusive. The guidelines of <a href="https://publicationethics.org/resources/flowcharts/complete-set-english" target="_blank">COPE</a> and <a href="https://www.icmje.org/recommendations/" target="_blank">ICJME</a> are taken into consideration regarding correction, retractions or expression of concern.

To guarantee that all papers published in the journal are maintained and permanently accessible, articles are stored in Dergipark which serves as a  national archival web site and at the same time permits LOCKSS to  collect, preserve, and serve the content.Additionally, authors are encouraged to self-archive the final PDF version of their articles in open electronic archives with  that conform to standards of Open Archives Initiative (<a href="https://www.openarchives.org/" target="_blank">https://www.openarchives.org/</a>). Authors should provide a link from the deposited version to the URL of IUPress journal website.

Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics is committed to upholding the highest standards of publication ethics and pays regard to Principles of Transparency and Best Practice in Scholarly Publishing published by the <a href="https://publicationethics.org/" target="_blank">Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE)</a>, the <a href="https://doaj.org/apply/transparency/#principles-of-transparency-and-best-practice-in-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)</a>, the <a href="https://oaspa.org/" target="_blank">Open Access Scholarly Publishers Association (OASPA)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.wame.org/" target="_blank">World Association of Medical Editors (WAME)</a> on <a href="https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing</a>All parties involved in the publishing process (Editors, Reviewers, Authors and Publishers) are expected to agree on the following ethical principles.All submissions must be original, unpublished (including as full text in conference proceedings), and not under the review of any other publication synchronously. Each manuscript is reviewed by one of the editors and at least two referees under double-blind peer review process. Plagiarism, duplication, fraud authorship/denied authorship, research/data fabrication, salami slicing/salami publication, breaching of copyrights, prevailing conflict of interest are unnethical behaviors.All manuscripts not in accordance with the accepted ethical standards will be removed from the publication. This also contains any possible malpractice discovered after the publication. In accordance with the code of conduct we will report any cases of suspected plagiarism or duplicate publishing.

Ethics

The journal adheres to the highest standards in research ethics and follows the principles of international research ethics as defined below. The authors are responsible for the compliance of the manuscripts with the ethical rules.-    Principles of integrity, quality and transparency should be sustained in designing the research, reviewing the design and conducting the research.-    The research team and participants should be fully informed about the aim, methods, possible uses and requirements of the research and risks of participation in research.-    The confidentiality of the information provided by the research participants and the confidentiality of the respondents should be ensured. The research should be designed to protect the autonomy and dignity of the participants.-    Research participants should participate in the research voluntarily, not under any coercion.-    Any possible harm to participants must be avoided. The research should be planned in such a way that the participants are not at risk.-    The independence of research must be clear; and any conflict of interest or must be disclosed.-    In experimental studies with human subjects, written informed consent of the participants who decide to participate in the research must be obtained. In the case of children and those under wardship or with confirmed insanity, legal custodian’s assent must be obtained.-    If the study is to be carried out in any institution or organization, approval must be obtained from this institution or organization.-    In studies with human subject, it must be noted in the method’s section of the manuscript that the informed consent of the participants and ethics committee approval from the institution where the study has been conducted have been obtained.

It is authors’ responsibility to ensure that the article is in accordance with scientific and ethical standards and rules. And authors must ensure that submitted work is original. They must certify that the manuscript has not previously been published elsewhere or is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere, in any language. Applicable copyright laws and conventions must be followed. Copyright material (e.g. tables, figures or extensive quotations) must be reproduced only with appropriate permission and acknowledgement. Any work or words of other authors, contributors, or sources must be appropriately credited and referenced.All the authors of a submitted manuscript must have direct scientific and academic contribution to the manuscript. The author(s) of the original research articles is defined as a person who is significantly involved in “conceptualization and design of the study”, “collecting the data”, “analyzing the data”, “writing the manuscript”, “reviewing the manuscript with a critical perspective” and “planning/conducting the study of the manuscript and/or revising it”. Fund raising, data collection or supervision of the research group are not sufficient roles to be accepted as an author. The author(s) must meet all these criteria described above. The order of names in the author list of an article must be a co-decision and it must be indicated in the <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/ABC26D9F796147E2BEB8F140CC273B87" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>. The individuals who do not meet the authorship criteria but contributed to the study must take place in the acknowledgement section. Individuals providing technical support, assisting writing, providing a general support, providing material or financial support are examples to be indicated in acknowledgement section.All authors must disclose all issues concerning financial relationship, conflict of interest, and competing interest that may potentially influence the results of the research or scientific judgment.When an author discovers a significant error or inaccuracy in his/her own published paper, it is the author’s obligation to promptly cooperate with the Editor to provide retractions or corrections of mistakes.

Editor-in-Chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors. He/She provides a fair double-blind peer review of the submitted articles for publication and ensures that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential before publishing.Editor-in-Chief is responsible for the contents and overall quality of the publication. He/She must publish errata pages or make corrections when needed.Editor-in-Chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers. Only he has the full authority to assign a reviewer and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal.Reviewers must have no conflict of interest with respect to the research, the authors and/or the research funders. Their judgments must be objective.Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side.A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process.The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees must be ensured. In particular situations, the editor may share the review of one reviewer with other reviewers to clarify a particular point.

Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by editor-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope. The selected manuscripts are sent to at least two national/international referees for evaluation and publication decision is given by editor-in-chief  upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.Editor-in-Chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors. He/She provides a fair double-blind peer review of the submitted articles for publication and ensures that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential before publishing. Editor-in-Chief is responsible for the contents and overall quality of the publication. He/She must publish errata pages or make corrections when needed. Editor-in-Chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers. Only he has the full authority to assign a reviewer and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal. Reviewers must have no conflict of interest with respect to the research, the authors and/or the research funders. Their judgments must be objective. Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side. A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process. The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees must be ensured. In particular situations, the editor may share the review of one reviewer with other reviewers to clarify a particular point.

Peer Review

Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation. Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by Editor-in-Chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope. Editor-in-Chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors and ensures a fair double-blind peer review of the selected manuscripts. The selected manuscripts are sent to at least two national/international referees for evaluation and publication decision is given by Editor-in-Chief upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims. Editor-in-Chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal. Reviewers’ judgments must be objective. Reviewers’ comments on the following aspects are expected while conducting the review. - Does the manuscript contain new and significant information? - Does the abstract clearly and accurately describe the content of the manuscript? - Is the problem significant and concisely stated? - Are the methods described comprehensively? - Are the interpretations and consclusions justified by the results? - Is adequate references made to other Works in the field? - Is the language acceptable? Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side. A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process. The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees is important.

LanguageThe language of the journal is both Turkish and English.Manuscript Organization and SubmissionAll correspondence will be sent to the first-named author unless otherwise specified. Manuscpript is to be submitted online via <a href="https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist" target="_blank">https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist</a> and it must be accompanied by a cover letter indicating that the manuscript is intended for publication, specifying the article category (i.e. research article, review etc.) and including information about the manuscript (see the Submission Checklist). Manuscripts should be prepared in Microsoft Word 2003 and upper versions. In addition, <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/ABC26D9F796147E2BEB8F140CC273B87" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a> that has to be signed by all authors must be submitted.1. The manuscripts should be in A4 paper standards: having 2.5 cm margins from right, left, bottom and top, Times New Roman font style in 12 font size and line spacing of 1.5.2. The manuscripts should contain between 4500 and 8500 words and the page numbers must be at the bottom and in the middle.3.  The name(s) of author(s) should be given just beneath the title of the study aligned to the right. Also the affiliation, title, e-mail and phone of the author(s) must be indicated on the bottom of the page as a footnote marked with an asterisk (*).4.  Submitted manuscripts in Turkish must have before the introduction section, the abstract both in Turkish and English, between 200 and 250 words and an extended abstract in English between 600-800 words, summarizing the scope, the purpose, the results of the study and the methodology used. Underneath the abstracts, 3 to 5 keywords that inform the reader about the content of the study should be specified in Turkish and in English. If the manuscript is written in English, it must include an abstract only in English.5. The manuscripts should contain mainly these components: title, abstract and keywords; extended abstract, body text with sections, footnotes and references.6. Research article sections are ordered as follows: “INTRODUCTION”, “AIM AND METHODOLOGY”, “FINDINGS”, “DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION”, “ENDNOTES”, “REFERENCES” and “TABLES AND FIGURES”.7. The 6th version of the APA (American Psychological Association) reference style should be used for in-text citation and references list. For information and samples on the APA 6 style please refer to http://jecs.istanbul.edu.tr/en/content/information-for-authors/references and/or REFERENCES section in the Information for Authors.8. Tables, graphs and figures can be given with a number and a defining title if and only if it is necessary to follow the idea of the article. the article. The title of table should be placed above the table; caption of figure should be placed beneath the figure. Features like demographic characteristics that can be given within the text should not be indicated as tables separately.9. A title page including author information must be submitted together with the manuscript. The title page is to include fully descriptive title of the manuscript and, affiliation, title, e-mail address, postal address, phone and fax number of the author(s) (see The Submission Checklist).10. Authors are responsible for all statements made in their work submitted to the Journal for publication.11. The author(s) can be asked to make some changes in their articles due to peer reviews.12. A copy of the journal will be sent to each author of the accepted articles upon their request.13. The manuscripts that were submitted to the journal will not be returned whether they are published or not.

Author Guidelines

Before beginning the online submission process please read the Information for Authors and make sure you have the followings available:Cover letter to the editor<ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The category of the manuscript</li> <li>Confirming that “the paper is not under consideration for publication in another journal”.</li> <li>Including disclosure of any commercial or financial involvement.</li> <li>Confirming that the statistical design of the research article is reviewed.</li> <li>Confirming that last control for fluent English was done.</li> <li>Confirming that journal policies detailed in Information for Authors have been reviewed.</li> <li>Confirming that the references cited in the text and listed in the references section are in line with APA 6.</li> </ul> </ul><a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/ABC26D9F796147E2BEB8F140CC273B87" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>Permission of previous published material if used in the present manuscript <a href="http://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/FileHandler2.ashx?f=ekoist_title-page.docx" target="_blank">Title page</a><ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The category of the manuscript</li> <li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>All authors’ names and affiliations (institution, faculty/department, city, country), e-mail addresses</li> <li>Corresponding author’s email address, full postal address, telephone and fax number</li> <li>ORCIDs of all authors.</li> </ul> </ul>Main Manuscript Document<ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Abstracts (200-250 words) both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Key words: 3 to 5 words both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Extended Abstract (600-800 words) in English (only for Turkish articles)</li> <li>Main article sections</li> <li>Acknowledgement (if exits)</li> <li>References</li> <li>All tables, illustrations (figures) (including title, description, footnotes)</li> </ul> </ul>Manuscript Submission<ul type="disc"> <li>Dergipark manuscript submission site of the journal is: <a href="https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist" target="_blank">https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekoist</a></li><li>While uploading Main Document, make sure that the main document has no information that clarify the author’s identity. Due to double blind peer review, Main Document must not include Title Page, the name of author or any other detail that can disclose the author identity. </li> <li>Additionaly, Supplemental File for Review must not include any detail that can disclose author identity as well.</li> </ul><ul type="disc"> </ul>Files to be uploaded separately<ul type="disc"> <li>Copyright Agreement Form</li> <li>Permissions obtained for previously published material if used in the present manuscript</li> <li>Title page</li> <li>Main Manuscript Document</li> </ul><ul type="disc"> <ul type="circle"> <li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Abstracts (200-250 words) both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Key words: 3 to 5 words both in Turkish and in English</li> <li>Extended Abstract (600-800 words) in English (only for Turkish articles)</li> <li>Main article sections</li> <li>Acknowledgement (if exists)</li> <li>References</li> <li>All tables, illustrations (figures) (including title, description, footnotes)</li></ul></ul><ul type="disc"> </ul>

Although references to review articles can be an efficient way to guide readers to a body of literature, review articles do not always reflect original work accurately. Readers should therefore be provided with direct references to original research sources whenever possible. On the other hand, extensive lists of references to original work on a topic can use excessive space on the printed page. Small numbers of references to key original papers often serve as well as more exhaustive lists, particularly since references can now be added to the electronic version of published papers, and since electronic literature searching allows readers to retrieve published literature efficiently. Papers accepted but not yet included in the issue are published online in the Early View section and they should be cited as “advance online publication”. Citing a “personal communication” should be avoided unless it provides essential information not available from a public source, in which case the name of the person and date of communication should be cited in parentheses in the text. For scientific articles, written permission and confirmation of accuracy from the source of a personal communication must be obtained.Reference Style and FormatEKOIST: Econometrics and Statistics complies with APA (American Psychological Association) style 6th Edition for referencing and quoting. For more information:-    American Psychological Association. (2010). Publication manual of the American Psychological Association (6th ed.). Washington, DC: APA.-    <a href="http://www.apastyle.org" target="_blank">http://www.apastyle.org</a>Citations in the TextCitations must be indicated with the author surname and publication year within the parenthesis.If more than one citation is made within the same paranthesis, separate them with (;).Samples:More than one citation;(Esin, et al., 2002; Karasar, 1995)Citation with one author;(Akyolcu, 2007)Citation with two authors;(Sayıner &amp; Demirci, 2007)Citation with three, four, five authors;First citation in the text: (Ailen, Ciambrune, &amp; Welch, 2000) Subsequent citations in the text: (Ailen, et al., 2000)Citations with more than six authors;(Çavdar, et al., 2003)Citations in the ReferenceAll the citations done in the text should be listed in the References section in alphabetical order of author surname without numbering. Below given examples should be considered in citing the references.Basic Reference TypesBooka) Turkish BookKarasar, N. (1995). Araştırmalarda rapor hazırlama (8th ed.) [Preparing research reports]. Ankara, Turkey: 3A Eğitim Danışmanlık Ltd.b) Book Translated into TurkishMucchielli, A. (1991). Zihniyetler [Mindsets] (A. Kotil, Trans.). İstanbul, Turkey: İletişim Yayınları.c) Edited BookÖren, T., Üney, T., &amp; Çölkesen, R. (Eds.). (2006). Türkiye bilişim ansiklopedisi [Turkish Encyclopedia of Informatics]. İstanbul, Turkey: Papatya Yayıncılık.d) Turkish Book with Multiple AuthorsTonta, Y., Bitirim, Y., &amp; Sever, H. (2002). Türkçe arama motorlarında performans değerlendirme [Performance evaluation in Turkish search engines]. Ankara, Turkey: Total Bilişim.e) Book in EnglishKamien R., &amp; Kamien A. (2014). Music: An appreciation. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Education.f) Chapter in an Edited BookBassett, C. (2006). Cultural studies and new media. In G. Hall &amp; C. Birchall (Eds.), New cultural studies: Adventures in theory (pp. 220–237). Edinburgh, UK: Edinburgh University Press.g) Chapter in an Edited Book in TurkishErkmen, T. (2012). Örgüt kültürü: Fonksiyonları, öğeleri, işletme yönetimi ve liderlikteki önemi [Organization culture: Its functions, elements and importance in leadership and business management]. In M. Zencirkıran (Ed.), Örgüt sosyolojisi [Organization sociology] (pp. 233–263). Bursa, Turkey: Dora Basım Yayın.h) Book with the same organization as author and publisherAmerican Psychological Association. (2009). Publication manual of the American psychological association (6th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.Articlea) Turkish ArticleMutlu, B., &amp; Savaşer, S. (2007). Çocuğu ameliyat sonrası yoğun bakımda olan ebeveynlerde stres nedenleri ve azaltma girişimleri [Source and intervention reduction of stress for parents whose children are in intensive care unit after surgery]. Istanbul University Florence Nightingale Journal of Nursing, 15(60), 179–182.b) English Articlede Cillia, R., Reisigl, M., &amp; Wodak, R. (1999). The discursive construction of national identity. Discourse and Society, 10(2), 149–173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0957926599010002002c) Journal Article with DOI and More Than Seven AuthorsLal, H., Cunningham, A. L., Godeaux, O., Chlibek, R., Diez-Domingo, J., Hwang, S.-J. ... Heineman, T. C. (2015). Efficacy of an adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine in older adults. New England Journal of Medicine, 372, 2087–2096. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1501184d) Journal Article from Web, without DOISidani, S. (2003). Enhancing the evaluation of nursing care effectiveness. Canadian Journal of Nursing Research, 35(3), 26–38. Retrieved from http://cjnr.mcgill.cae) Journal Article wih DOITurner, S. J. (2010). Website statistics 2.0: Using Google Analytics to measure library website effectiveness. Technical Services Quarterly, 27, 261–278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07317131003765910f) Advance Online PublicationSmith, J. A. (2010). Citing advance online publication: A review. Journal of Psychology. Advance online publication. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a45d7867g) Article in a MagazineHenry, W. A., III. (1990, April 9). Making the grade in today’s schools. Time, 135, 28–31.Doctoral Dissertation, Master’s Thesis, Presentation, Proceedinga) Dissertation/Thesis from a Commercial DatabaseVan Brunt, D. (1997). Networked consumer health information systems (Doctoral dissertation). Available from ProQuest Dissertations and Theses database. (UMI No. 9943436)b) Dissertation/Thesis from an Institutional DatabaseYaylalı-Yıldız, B. (2014). University campuses as places of potential publicness: Exploring the politicals, social and cultural practices in Ege University (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from Retrieved from: http://library.iyte.edu.tr/tr/hizli-erisim/iyte-tez-portalic) Dissertation/Thesis from WebTonta, Y. A. (1992). An analysis of search failures in online library catalogs (Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Berkeley). Retrieved from http://yunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~tonta/yayinlar /phd/ickapak.htmld) Dissertation/Thesis abstracted in Dissertations Abstracts InternationalAppelbaum, L. G. (2005). Three studies of human information processing: Texture amplifica&#173;tion, motion representation, and figure-ground segregation. Dissertation Abstracts International: Section B. Sciences and Engineering, 65(10), 5428.e) Symposium ContributionKrinsky-McHale, S. J., Zigman, W. B., &amp; Silverman, W. (2012, August). Are neuropsychiatric symptoms markers of prodromal Alzheimer’s disease in adults with Down syndrome? In W. B. Zigman (Chair), Predictors of mild cognitive impairment, dementia, and mortality in adults with Down syndrome. Symposium conducted at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Orlando, FL.f) Conference Paper Abstract Retrieved OnlineLiu, S. (2005, May). Defending against business crises with the help of intelligent agent based early warning solutions. Paper presented at the Seventh International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems, Miami, FL. Abstract retrieved from http://www.iceis.org/iceis2005/abstracts_2005.htmg) Conference Paper - In Regularly Published Proceedings and Retrieved OnlineHerculano-Houzel, S., Collins, C. E., Wong, P., Kaas, J. H., &amp; Lent, R. (2008). The basic nonuniformity of the cerebral cortex. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 12593–12598. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805417105h) Proceeding in Book FormParsons, O. A., Pryzwansky, W. B., Weinstein, D. J., &amp; Wiens, A. N. (1995). Taxonomy for psychology. In J. N. Reich, H. Sands, &amp; A. N. Wiens (Eds.), Education and training beyond the doctoral degree: Proceedings of the American Psychological Association National Conference on Postdoctoral Education and Training in Psychology (pp. 45–50). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.i) Paper PresentationNguyen, C. A. (2012, August). Humor and deception in advertising: When laughter may not be the best medicine. Paper presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Orlando, FL.Other Sourcesa) Newspaper ArticleBrowne, R. (2010, March 21). This brainless patient is no dummy. Sydney Morning Herald, 45.b) Newspaper Article with no AuthorNew drug appears to sharply cut risk of death from heart failure. (1993, July 15). The Washington Post, p. A12.c) Web Page/Blog PostBordwell, D. (2013, June 18). David Koepp: Making the world movie-sized [Web log post]. Retrieved from http://www.davidbordwell.net/blog/page/27/d) Online Encyclopedia/DictionaryIgnition. (1989). In Oxford English online dictionary (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://dictionary.oed.comMarcoux, A. (2008). Business ethics. In E. N. Zalta (Ed.). The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. Retrieved from http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ethics-business/e) PodcastDunning, B. (Producer). (2011, January 12). in Fact: Conspiracy theories [Video podcast]. Retrieved from http://itunes.apple.com/f) Single Episode in a Television SeriesEgan, D. (Writer), &amp; Alexander, J. (Director). (2005). Failure to communicate. [Television series episode]. In D. Shore (Executive producer), House; New York, NY: Fox Broadcasting.g) MusicFuchs, G. (2004). Light the menorah. On Eight nights of Hanukkah [CD]. Brick, NJ: Kid Kosher.

Ensure that the following items are present:●    Cover letter to the editorü    The category of the manuscriptü    Confirming that “the paper is not under consideration for publication in another journal”.ü    Including disclosure of any commercial or financial involvement.ü    Confirming that the statistical design of the research article is reviewed.ü    Confirming that last control for fluent English was done.ü    Confirming that journal policies detailed in Information for Authors have been reviewed.ü    Confirming that the references cited in the text and listed in the references section are in line with APA 6.●    <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/ABC26D9F796147E2BEB8F140CC273B87" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>●    Permission of previously published copyrighted material if used in the present manuscript●    <a href="http://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/FileHandler2.ashx?f=ekoist_title-page.docx" target="_blank">Title page</a>ü    The category of the manuscriptü    The title of the manuscriptü    All authors’ names and affiliations (institution, faculty/department, city, country), e-mail addressesü    Corresponding author’s email address, full postal address, telephone and fax numberü    ORCIDs of all authors.●    Main Manuscript Documentü    The title of the manuscriptü    Abstract (200-250 words)ü    Key words: 3 to 5 wordsü    Main article sectionsü    Grant support (if exists)ü    Conflict of interest (if exists)ü    Acknowledgement (if exists)ü    Referencesü    All tables, illustrations (figures) (including title, description, footnotes)

<a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/5EED6D226A1F408CB1F80809BA35B678" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a><a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/9988B0D4A44A4DAD8D16AC2790AE5A78" target="_blank">Title Page</a>

Issue Type	Regular
Editor(s)	Burak Güriş
Cover (PDF)
Front Pages (PDF)

Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics

ISSUE 37, 2022

Improving Forecast Accuracy Using Combined Forecasts with Regard to Structural Breaks and ARCH Innovations

G20 Ülkelerinin Covid-19 Pandemisi ile Mücadele Performanslarının Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri ile Değerlendirilmesi

Finansal Zaman Serileri Tahmininde Hibrit Yaklaşımlar: Bir Hisse Senedi Piyasası Uygulaması

Global Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility

Açık Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Döneminde Neo-Fisher Etkisi’nin Geçerliliği: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

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