The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test ApproachHande Aksöz Yılmaz
Due to developments in the field of transportation and communication, communication and technological facilities have sped up the migration movements between countries by reducing the cost of migration. Additionally, as a result of developments in facilities and technology provided by globalization, the trade volume of the world is increasing rapidly. This study tested the impact of foreign trade on migrants from Turkey to Germany from the years 1988-2018 with the ARDL bounds testing approach for the first time. Hereby, it is aimed to make an original contribution by the use of this method. This study sought to answer the question of what the impact of Turkey’s import and export has been on outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany from 1988-2018. The hypotheses of this study are that Turkey’s imports and exports to Germany are increasing the migratory flows between Turkey and Germany and that foreign trade and migration are complementary between Turkey and Germany. According to the results of the study, what has been found is a cointegration relationship between Turkey’s foreign trade with Germany and immigrants from Turkey to Germany. Moreover; If there is a 1% increase to Turkey’s exports to Germany, the immigrant flow increase 0.30% to Germany from Turkey. If there is a 1% increase to Germany’s imports to Turkey, there is a 0.21% increase in the immigrant flows to Germany from Turkey.
Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi YaklaşımıHande Aksöz Yılmaz
Ulaşım ve haberleşme alanında yaşanan gelişmeler, iletişim alanında ve teknolojik sahada elde edilmiş kolaylıklar, göç etmenin maliyetini azaltarak; ülkeler arasındaki göç hareketlerini hızlandırmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, küreselleşmenin sağlamış olduğu kolaylıklar ve teknolojik gelişmeler neticesinde dünya ticaret hacmi hızla artmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 1988-2018 yılları itibariyle Türkiye’nin Almanya ile gerçekleştirdiği dış ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler üzerindeki etkisini ilk kez ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ile test edilmektedir. Bu nedenle kullanılmış olan yöntem ile özgün bir katkı sağlamış olmak hedeflenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın sorusu: 1988-2018 yıllarında Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan ithalat ve ihracatının Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler üzerindeki etkisi ne olmuştur? Biçiminde oluşturulmuştur. Bu çalışmanın hipotezleri ise; Hipotez 1: “Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan ithalat ve ihracatı göç hareketlerini artırmaktadır” ve Hipotez 2: “Türkiye ve Almanya arasındaki dış ticaret ve göç ilişkisi tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi niteliğindedir.” şeklindedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen uygulamalı analiz sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan dış ticareti ve Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenler arasında eş bütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu sonuca ek olarak; Türkiye’nin ithalat ve ihracatında %1’lik artış olduğunda, Türkiye’den Almanya’ya giden göçmenlerin oranı ithalat ve ihracat için sırası ile %0.30 ve %0.21 oranında artmaktadır.
Migration and foreign trade are two important components of globalization. The relationship between migration and foreign trade has been investigated in the literature for many years. The relationship between foreign trade and migration is put forward as a substitution relationship in the context of traditional foreign trade theories. According to the Heckscher – Ohlin theory, countries obtain a comparative advantage in the trade of goods that requirefactor abundance. (Heckscher,1949). The migration flow from one country to another means more labor inflows into that country. While wages rise in the migrant-sending country (due to the drop in labor supply), wages fall in the receiving country. Thus, factor prices converge between the two countries. This convergence eliminates the pre-immigration comparative advantage and has a dissuasive effect on trade. (Samuelson, 1969). Instead of the “constant return to scale” assumption of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson theorem, Krugman’s (1980) theoretical assumptions take into account that markets produce under imperfect competition and are based on the contribution of firm externality and economies of scale to countries production structures. Within these assumptions, the positive effect of migration emerges on trade. (Markusen, 1983; Gould, 1994).
The substitution relationship between migration and foreign trade has led to the use of trade as a policy instrument to reduce migration. The use of trade policies to reduce migration dates back to the 1970s. Political authorities have recommended that more import be made from those countries in order to reduce the flow of immigrants from southern and eastern countries. This view is compatible with the theoretical framework that defines the substitution relationship between foreign trade and migration (Schiff, 1996).
The complementarity relationship between foreign trade and migration has been considered from two different views in the literature. The first group of studies state that migration is seen as the real factor arbitrage in the context of neoclassical trade theory. (Mundell, 1957; Markusen, 1983). The second group of studies state that migration is considered as a structure in social activity in the context of network and human capital. While the first group give priority to theoretical foundations, the latter focuses on empirical analysis. (Gould, 1994; Eichegreen & Irwin, 1996; Head & Ries, 1998; Dunlevy and Hutchinson, 1999-2001; Girma & Yu, 2002; Rauch & Trindade, 2002; Wagner et al., 2002; Combes et al., 2002; Faustino & Leitão, 2008; Zarzosoa et al.,2009; Egger et al., 2011).
The work of Özekicioğlu & Soyyiğit (2019) is in line with the results of Emirhan (2014). According to the results of both studies, no significant relationship was found between migration and foreign trade. Both of these studies emphasized the importance of qualitative variables, such as the quality of the immigrants affecting trade, the level of education, and the sector in the relationship between migration and foreign trade.
Turkey has sent the most immigrants to Germany since the 1960’s. Therefore, in this study the impact of foreign trade on migrants from Turkey to Germany has been tested with the ARDL bounds testing approach. This study sought to answer the question what the impact of Turkey’s import and export has been on outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany from 1988-2018. The ARDL boundary test approach is preferred because the cointegration relationship between variables can be tested in the long and short term and is appropriate in small samples. According to the results of the study, a cointegration relationship has been found between Turkey’s foreign trade with Germany and outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany. If there is a 1% increase to Turkey’s exports to Germany, the immigrant flows increase 0.30% to Germany from Turkey. If there is a 1% increase to Germany’s imports to Turkey, there is a 0.21% increase in the immigrant flows to Germany from Turkey.. The analysis showed that the decrease in the unemployment rate in Turkey from 1988-2018 led to increased immigrant outflow from Turkey to Germany. According to the export model; If there is a 1% decrease to unemployment rates in Turkey, the Turkish immigrant stock in Germany increases 0.21%. If there is a 1% decrease to unemployment rates in Turkey, the Turkish immigrant stock in Germany increases 0.22% in the case according to the import model.. Similar results were obtained with the results found in Taylor (1987), Morrison & Zabin (1994) and Zabin & Hughes (1993), Lopez & Schiff (1995), Hanson & Spilimbergo (1996). However, if unemployment decreases and income rises, immigrants who were previously unable to migrate due to financial constraints begin to migrate.. Unemployment in Germany is expected to reduce Turkish immigration stock in Germany, but according to the obtained results, when the unemployment rate in Germany increases by 1%, the Turkish immigrant stock in Germany increases by 0.11%. The main reason for this result is thought to be because migration flows between Turkey and Germany from 1988-2018 consist of outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany through family reunification. Therefore, outgoing immigrants to Germany immigrate for attractive opportunities such as high living standards and the social welfare state. As a requirement of being a social welfare state, all citizens living in Germany benefit from social welfare benefits. A level of income that is decent to human dignity is supported or unemployed citizens are provided with social welfare benefits in Germany (Thimann, 1996).