Research Article


DOI :10.26650/JECS2020-0110   IUP :10.26650/JECS2020-0110    Full Text (PDF)

On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty

Gülden PoyrazAhmet İncekara

Macroeconomic and financial indicators have a significant impact on the exchange market pressure (EMP) in Turkey. Despite the huge amount of literature on the subject, there is no study focusing on Turkey that takes into account the role of model uncertainty on exchange market pressure. The role of model uncertainty should be taken into consideration, given the lack of a unique theoretical framework on the exchange markets pressure and a set of numerous explanatory variables. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique is capable of determining as to whether any explanatory variable should be included in the analysis, i.e. the models with high posterior probability. To this end, the determinants of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) in Turkey for the period of 2010M1-2020M3 are identified using the Bayesian model averaging which takes into account the role of model uncertainty. Model results indicate that the slope of the yield curve, domestic credit growth, the long term yield differentials, and short-term portfolio flows play a significant role as determinants of the exchange rate pressures of Turkey.

JEL Classification : C11 , F31 , F37

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APA

Poyraz, G., & İncekara, A. (2019). On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty. Journal of Economy, Culture and Society, 0(0), -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110


AMA

Poyraz G, İncekara A. On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty. Journal of Economy, Culture and Society. 2019;0(0):-. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110


ABNT

Poyraz, G.; İncekara, A. On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty. Journal of Economy, Culture and Society, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 0, p. -, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Poyraz, Gülden, and Ahmet İncekara. 2019. “On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty.” Journal of Economy, Culture and Society 0, no. 0: -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110


Chicago: Humanities Style

Poyraz, Gülden, and Ahmet İncekara. On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty.” Journal of Economy, Culture and Society 0, no. 0 (Jun. 2021): -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110


Harvard: Australian Style

Poyraz, G & İncekara, A 2019, 'On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty', Journal of Economy, Culture and Society, vol. 0, no. 0, pp. -, viewed 18 Jun. 2021, https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Poyraz, G. and İncekara, A. (2019) ‘On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty’, Journal of Economy, Culture and Society, 0(0), pp. -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110 (18 Jun. 2021).


MLA

Poyraz, Gülden, and Ahmet İncekara. On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty.” Journal of Economy, Culture and Society, vol. 0, no. 0, 2019, pp. -. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110


Vancouver

Poyraz G, İncekara A. On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty. Journal of Economy, Culture and Society [Internet]. 18 Jun. 2021 [cited 18 Jun. 2021];0(0):-. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110 doi: 10.26650/JECS2020-0110


ISNAD

Poyraz, Gülden - İncekara, Ahmet. On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty”. Journal of Economy, Culture and Society 0/0 (Jun. 2021): -. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2020-0110



TIMELINE


Submitted04.08.2020
Accepted01.10.2020
Published Online24.02.2021

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