The Effect of Internal Migration on Regional Poverty in Turkey: The Determining Role of the Agricultural SectorMehmet Zanbak, Reyhan Özeş Özgür
Türkiye’de İç Göçün Bölgesel Yoksulluk Üzerindeki Etkisi: Tarım Sektörünün Belirleyici RolüMehmet Zanbak, Reyhan Özeş Özgür
Introduction The aim of this study was to reveal the effects of internal migration on poverty in Turkey. In other words, in addition to the many factors that affect poverty, determining how and on what level interregional migration affects poverty is one of the main purposes of the study. The focus of the study were 12 regions in Level 1 and qualitative and quantitative methods were applied together using secondary data. The main purpose of the study is to reveal how migration that took place in the recent past and the differentiation between the regions had an effect on poverty and thus, to guide the policymakers and relevant actors. The aim of the study was to suggest opinions about which regions the individuals, who were forced to migrate due to socio-economic reasons, should incline towards and thus, to reveal alternative migration routes. Another aim of this study is to reveal the final outcomes of migration for the individuals who were living in relatively behind regions and whose poverty had become chronic in creating added value. Thus, it might be possible to determine the impact on individual wealth for those who migrate or those who choose an alternative to migration and to suggest policies.
Literature Summary The following studies, which analyze the relationship between poverty and migration, were used as a reference in this study: Bustillo and Anton (2009), Chapman and Bernstein (2003), Güneş (2009), Martin and Taylor (2003), Raphael and Smolensky (2008), Tümtaş (2009), Suro et al. (2011), Tümtaş and Ergun (2014), and to Yıldız and Alaeddinoğlu (2011). In all of this research, it was emphasized that poverty changes with migration and most of the studies drew attention to the effect of migration from rural areas.
Econometric Analysis The aim of this study was to reveal the effects of migration in 12 regions in Level 1 segregation of TSI on national and regional poverty. Accordingly, the necessary data set was obtained by determining indicators in accordance with the studies conducted on the relationship between poverty and migration. The used data is from 2008-2014 and was obtained from TSI on Level 1. Subsequently, the created model was estimated with panel data analysis. The econometric problems that were encountered during the analysis were corrected with necessary operations and thus, efficient estimators were obtained.
InNumberOfPoorPeopleit= α + β1 lnDependencyit+ β2 lnMigrationit+ β3 lnAgricultural_Empit + β4 lnGNPPCit+ β5 lnAgricultural_Migrationit+ eit InNumberOfPoorPeopleit Number of poor individuals lnDependencyit Total age dependency ratio lnMigrationit The migration that the region receives lnAgricultural_Empit Agricultural employment lnGNPPCit Gross national product per capita (dollar) lnAgricultural_Migrationit Migration from the regions in which the agricultural sector has 6% or more share in the regional GDP (regions in which agricultural employment and production have become relatively prominent) to other regions. i Region t Date (Year)
Findings and Evaluation The obtained results reveal that the relationship between the dependency ratio, migration and GNPPC are not statistically significant. However, it was observed that agriculture-based migration decreases the total number of poor people. In other words, an increase in agricultural migration by 100%, decreases the number of poor people in the country by approximately 49%. This result proves that a good number of individuals who migrate from rural to urban areas do not bring their poverty with them by finding new job opportunities. That is, by leaving the agriculture sector, the migration into regions where industry and services are prominent significantly decreases the number of poor people in the country. As a result of the analysis, it can be stated that the autonomous poverty in the discussed regions which can’t be explained with independent variables are different from each other. In other words, the effect of independent variables, such as rural migration, differs in regions in the reduction of poverty with the TR1-Istanbul region ranking first in terms of the magnitude of this effect. According to this ranking which is followed by the TR-3 Aegean and TR6-Mediterranean Regions, it can be stated that other factors which were not included in the model affected the poverty of these regions. This study in which the relationship between poverty and migration was discussed indicates that rural-based migration has a significant effect on poverty. At this point, it should not be overlooked that the knowledge-skill levels of migrated individuals would change the magnitude and direction of this effect. In other words, since agricultural-based migration is effective in the reduction of the number of poor people, this effect can be positively increased by educating the migrating population.