Psychological and Economic Aspects of BIST Tourism Index with HotelRestaurant Credits: Turkey ExampleFiliz Yetiz, Aynur Süsay, Ayşe Ergin Ünal
In gross domestic product the share of the tourism sector, which is among the sub-service sectors in Turkey in general and the services sector in particular, is increasing gradually. From the perspective of the world service trade, the contribution of the sector, which weighs almost 30%, to the country’s economies is undeniable. Considering its importance in the economy, banks provide affordable prices, maturity, and limit options for developing the tourism sector and various businesses, including investment loans. Banks also create new loan support packages for the needs of the sector. The banking system continuously supports sectors with multiple credit products to maintain activities in the tourism sector, establish new tourism enterprises, renew the enterprises, and support renovation activities. In this context, the study aims to determine the causality relationship among various psychological and economic sizes affecting the tourism sector in Turkey. Monthly data for the period 2011:01–2021:02 and the Toda Yamamoto Causality test were used in the study. Moreover, six different variables were preferred in the investigation of the total tourism loans financed by the banking system and the psychological and economic effects of the BIST tourism index. Among the variables, Industrial Production Index, BIST Tourism Index, Hotels and Restaurants (Tourism) Total Cash Loans, and consumer price index indicators (Restaurants and Hotels) represent economic reflections in the sector. The service sector confidence index and Turkey geopolitical risk index represent psychological effects. According to the causality test, a one-way causality relationship was obtained from the service sector confidence index to growth and consumer price index indicators and from the BIST Tourism Index to the service sector confidence index. Other findings include a one-way causality relationship from Hotels and Restaurants (Tourism) Total Cash Loans to CPI.
Otel-Restoran Kredileri ile BIST Turizm Endeksinin Psikolojik ve Ekonomik Yansımaları: Türkiye ÖrneğiFiliz Yetiz, Aynur Süsay, Ayşe Ergin Ünal
Türkiye’ de genel itibari ile hizmetler sektörü özelde ise alt hizmet sektörleri arasında yer alan turizm sektörünün Gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki payı gittikçe artmaktadır. Dünya hizmet ticareti perspektifinden bakıldığında ise neredeyse yüzde 30 dolaylarında ağırlığı olan sektörün ülke ekonomilerine katkısı yadsınamaz boyuttadır. Ekonomideki öneminden dolayı bankalar turizm sektörünün gelişmesine yönelik uygun fiyat, vade ve limit seçenekleri ile çeşitli işletme ve yatırım kredileri sağlamakta sektörün ihtiyacına yönelik yeni kredi destek paketleri oluşturmaktadır. Bankacılık sistemi turizm sektöründe faaliyetlerin sürdürülmesi, yeni turizm işletmelerin kurulması, işletmelerin yenilemesi, tadilat faaliyetlerinin desteklenmesi amacıyla sektöre çeşitli kredi ürünleriyle sürekli destek olmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’ de turizm sektörünü etkileyen psikolojik ve ekonomik çeşitli büyüklükler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmek olup çalışmada 2011:01-2021:02 dönemi aylık verileri ve Toda Yamamoto Nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada bankacılık sisteminin finanse ettiği toplam turizm kredileri ile BIST turizm endeksinin psikolojik ve ekonomik etkilerinin araştırılmasında 6 farklı değişken tercih edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasında yer alan Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, BIST Turizm Endeksi, Otel ve Restoranlar (Turizm) Toplam Nakdi Kredileri, TÜFE Göstergeleri (Lokanta ve Oteller) sektördeki ekonomik yansımaları temsil ederken Hizmet Sektörü Güven Endeksi ve Türkiye Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi psikolojik etkileri temsil etmektedir. Yapılan nedensellik testi sonucuna göre Hizmet Sektörü Güven Endeksinden büyümeye ve TÜFE göstergelerine, BIST Turizm Endeksinden Hizmet Sektörü Güven Endeksi’ne doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir. Otel ve Restoranlar (Turizm) Toplam Nakdi Kredilerinden TÜFE’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi ise diğer bulgular arasındadır.
The tourism sector, which is described as a chimneyless industry, is an important area that affects the growth indicators of a country’s economy. In terms of the sector, financial opportunities and service confidence perception are the subjects that should be examined. Financial support is provided to develop, support, and grow the tourism sector to contribute to economic growth. The banking system continuously supports sectors with various credit products to maintain activities in the tourism sector, establish new tourism enterprises, renew the enterprises, and support renovation activities. The tourism sector is an important sector for countries’ economies with a foreign currency input. This sector provides employment opportunities, solving the unemployment problem by creating income. Among the subservice sectors in Turkey in general and the services sector in particular, tourism has an increasing share of gross domestic product (GDP).
In this context, the study aims to determine the causality relationship among various psychological and economic sizes affecting the tourism sector in Turkey. Monthly data for the period 2011:01–2021:02 and the Toda Yamamoto Causality test were used in the study. Moreover, six different variables were preferred in the investigation of the total tourism loans financed by the banking system and the psychological and economic effects of the BIST tourism index. As an indicator of economic growth, industrial production index, BIST tourism index, tourism total cash loans, and consumer price index (CPI) variables represent economic activities. The service sector confidence index and Turkey geopolitical risk index are important variables selected to represent psychological factors. According to the results of the analysis, a one-way causality relationship has been obtained from the service sector confidence index to growth and CPI indicators and from the BIST Tourism Index to the service sector confidence index. Other findings include a one-way causality relationship toward CPI from Hotels and Restaurants (Tourism) Total Cash Loans. The result of the analysis method used in the study shows that the effects on economic factors for the tourism sector are strengthened specifically by the service sector confidence index, which represents the psychological perception. Among the findings, the service sector confidence index is the cause of the hotel/restaurant price index. The result of the BIST Tourism Index’s service sector confidence index supports this view. In other words, an increase in value in tourism companies traded on the stock exchange representing the financial sector can positively affect the services confidence index, whereas an increase in confidence can affect the price index by increasing sectoral activities. The share of the service sector in GDP in Turkey is undeniable. The importance of expectation and increased trust in the sectors increases and even provides a psychological perspective to the relationship between the two phenomena. In this context, confidence indices consisting of various criteria affect the value of companies in the stock exchange and the service sector. One of the more general findings is that the service sector confidence index is the cause of economic growth. This result emphasizes the increasing importance of perception and expectation, which is considered a psychological factor in economic growth in economic decision-makers. A causality relationship between tourism loans used by banks and economic growth has not been determined. In the study, tourism sector loans and company values are expected to have an indirect effect, although not directly, on economic growth. This notion will be explained by the change in price indices. Therefore, the loans used to increase the economic growth of tourism loans should be directed more to the areas that will encourage tourism investments. Moreover, banks should continue to finance investments in tourism enterprises renewed to provide employment growth with affordable price and maturity opportunities. Investment loans given to the tourism sector through banks will only reflect positively on economic growth when investments occur. Although Turkey is a country in demand with its geopolitical position and service potential, the sector still needs to be made more effective. In this context, in addition to various financial conveniences or incentives, policies that will increase the number of tourists visiting our country and the diversity of the visiting country should also be established. This research hopes to guide future studies by measuring and comparative analysis of the effects of tourism loans on economic activities using different countries or different analysis methods in new studies.