Determining the Competitiveness of Türkiye’s Selected Defense Products: A Revealed Comparative Advantage and Comparative Export PerformanceZehra Vildan Serin, Seda Yeldan
Türkiye has had strategic importance for the defense industry throughout history due to its geopolitical status. Türkiye has taken important steps in the defense industry in recent years by reducing its dependence on foreign sources and has come to a competitive position with many countries. Türkiye has succeeded in increasing its domestic production in the defense industry, especially since 2000. The main purpose of this study is to determine Türkiye’s competitiveness regarding armored vehicle, artillery, missile, and ship product groups with the USA, Russia, China, France, and Germany as the global powers in defense industry exports. The study aims to reveal whether Türkiye has an advantageous position regarding its competitiveness with the selected countries in the world defense industry market. This research will also contribute to the literature, which contains a limited number of studies on the subject. This study applies the revealed comparative advantages (RCA) and comparative export performance (CEP) index methods to the 2010-2020 period. The research findings show Türkiye’s to have high competitive power in terms of armored vehicle exports over the 2010-2020 period according to the RCA index values. Türkiye surpassed Russia in terms of artillery product requirements and CEP index values in 2015. Although the index follows a fluctuating course, the product export performance from non-commissioned officers when selected between 2011-2017 is high. The comparative export performances of the missile CEP index values are generally unsatisfactory. Türkiye shows a flawed performance regarding missile exports. In2010 and 2019, the export performance for ships was determined to be better than Russia. Export performance with the USA was high after 2012. The continuation of Türkiye’s competitive advantage against the USA, Russia, China, France, and Germany regarding the export of defense armored vehicles, artillery, and ship products will depend on Türkiye increasing the importance it gives to research and its orientations toward these product groups and on maintaining its strategic trade policies.
Savunma Sanayi Ürünlerinde Türkiye’nin Rekabet Gücünün Belirlenmesi: Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler ve Karşılaştırmalı İhracat PerformansıZehra Vildan Serin, Seda Yeldan
Jeopolitik durumu nedeniyle, Türkiye savunma sanayi, açısından tarih boyunca stratejik öneme sahip olmuştur. Türkiye son yıllarda savunma sanayinde önemli adımlar atarak dışa bağımlılığını azaltmış, pek çok ülkeyle rekabet edecek konuma gelmiştir. Türkiye özellikle 2000 yılından itibaren savunma sanayinde yerli üretimini artırmayı başarmıştır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, savunma sanayi ihracatında küresel güç olan ABD, Rusya, Çin, Fransa ve Almanya karşısında zırhlı araç, topçu, füze vegemi ürün gruplarında Türkiye’nin rekabet gücünün belirlenmesi ve Dünya savunma sanayi pazarında Türkiye’nin seçilen ülkeler karşısında rekabet güçlerinin avantajlı konumda olup olmadığını ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmamız konuyla ilgili sınırlı sayıda çalışma barındıran literatüre de katkı sağlayacaktır. Bu çalışmada ‘Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler’ (AKÜ) indeksi ve ‘Karşılaştırmalı İhracat Performans’ (KİP)- indeksi yöntemleri 2010-2020 dönemi için uygulanmıştır. Araştırma bulguları, Türkiye’nin 2010-2020 döneminde zırhlı araç ihracatında , AKÜ indeks değerlerine göre rekabet gücünün yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir Topçu ürün grubunda KİP indeks değerlerinde Türkiye 2015 yılında Rusyadan üstün bir performansa sahiptir. Dalgalı bir indeks seyri izlese de, 2011-2017 yılları arasında seçilmiş ülkelerden topçu ürün ihracat performansı yüksektir. Füze KİP indeks değerleri karşılaştırmalı ihracat performansı genel olarak düşüktür. Türkiye füze ihracatında dezavantajlı bir konuma sahiptir. Gemi ihracat performansında 2010 ve 2019 yıllarında Rusyadan daha iyi konuma ulaştığı bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. ABD ile ise 2012 sonrası ihracat performansı yüksektir. 2018 yılına kadar Çin’den daha avantajlı konumdadır. Türkiye’ nin savunma zırhlı araç, topçu ve gemi ürün ihracatında ABD, Rusya, Çin, Fransa ve Almanya karşısında rekabet gücünün devam etmesi Türkiye’nin bu ürün guruplarında araştırma ve geliştirmeye verdiği önemi artırmasına ve uyguladığı stratejik ticaret politikalarını devam ettirmesine bağlıdır.
Due to internal and external security being two of the most important needs countries have, the defense industry has critical importance. With the collapse of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991, peace was said to have come to the world, but civil wars have since caused great migrations and increased the importance of the defense industry. Türkiye has an important position in the world as a result of its geopolitical location. The history of Türkiye’s defense industry dates back to the Ottoman Empire, and its defense industry came to the fore again with the Cyprus Peace Operation in 1974, after which the USA placed an arms embargo on Türkiye, marking a turning point where Türkiye began to see itself in a dangerous position. For this reason, Türkiye has sought to reduce its foreign dependency and meet its own national defense inventory needs. The 2016 coup attempt that took place in Türkiye, and the operations against ISIS and the PKK in Syria and Iraq since 2016 have caused Türkiye to make progress in the defense industry in addition to the significant progress it has made since 2000. Over the last decade, Türkiye has become able to mostly meet the needs of its Armed Forces, while also showing a significant export performance by reducing its foreign dependency. Turkish defense industry companies have achieved competitive power in the world defense industry by being among the top 100 companies in the world defense industry with their export figures.
The main purpose of the study is to determine Türkiye’s export competitiveness with countries such as Germany, USA, Russia, France, and China, which lead the world in terms of defense exports. The study takes advantage of the widely used revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and comparative export performance (CEP) indices for the competitiveness analysis, which uses armored vehicle, artillery, missile, and ship product groups for the 2010-2020 period.
The RCA approach was first introduced by Liesner then later developed by Bela Balassa (Balassa,1965, s.101). The RCA index allows countries to compare their advantage in a particular industry with a different country and is calculated with the following formula:
RCAij = (Xij / Xi) / (Xaj / Xa) (1)
The dependent variable in the formula is RCA, which is also known as the Ballassaindex and explains countries’ competitive advantage. In the formula, i denotes a particular country and j denotes a particular industry. On the right side of the equation, Xij represents the selected armored vehicle, artillery, missile, and ship products exports of a certain country for a certain period, and Xi represents the total exports of that country during the same period. Xaj, which is in the denominator, represents the total world exports of armored vehicles, artillery, missile, and ship products for a given period, and Xa represents the total world exports for the same period. The CEP index is calculated using the following formula developed by Donges (Donges ve ark.,1982, s.83):
CEPirj = (Xij / Xrj) / (Σ Xit / Σ Xrt) (2)
where i represents a specific country.
CEPirj shows the comparative export performance index of country i versus competitor country j regarding a specific commodity.
Xij is country i’s exports of good j over a given period.
Xrj is the competitor countries’ exports of good j during the same period.
Σ Xit is the total exports of country i during the given period.
Σ Xrt is the competitor’s total exports during the same period.
According to the results from the RCA index values regarding armored vehicle products for the studied period, Türkiye is seen to have great competitive power. Türkiye has index values similar to the USA’s and stronger competitive power than France, Germany, and China. Türkiye can be said to have a comparative advantage regarding the armored vehicle product group. When compared to other countries regarding the artillery product group, Türkiye had the greatest competitive power between 2011-2014. However, it has lost its strong competitive power in recent years. The results for the missile battery index values show Russia, USA, and France to have strong competitive power and Türkiye to have had no competitive power except for 2015. Türkiye occasionally had competitive power as shown by the fluctuating course it followed regarding ship RCA index values, while other times it had no competitive power during the same period.
Türkiye’s armored vehicle product group had a better position than Russia in 2019 as a result of CEP index values. After 2017, Türkiye was more advantageous than the USA. The
export performance for armored vehicles also exceeded France and China. Regarding the artillery product group, Türkiye has had superior performance compared to Russia in terms
of the CEP index values. Despite fluctuations in the index, the export performance for artillery products from the selected countries was very good between 2011-2017. The CEP index values for missiles generally showed a low comparative export performance. Türkiye is seen to have been in a disadvantageous position in this regard. While its ship exportperformance exceeded Russia’s in 2010 and 2019, this was not the case for the other years. Export performance with the USA after 2012 remained high, and Türkiye also stayed in a more advantageous position than China until 2018.