Türkiye’de Bölgesel Genç İşsizlik: Belirleyiciler Cinsiyete Göre Değişken mi?Mert Topcu, Lütfi Biçimveren
İktisat teorisi, işsizliği en önemli makroekonomik sorunlardan biri olarak öne çıkartmaktadır. Üretim sürecine yapacağı katkılar göz önüne alındığında genç nüfusun işgücü piyasasına entegrasyonu, çalışma ekonomisi literatürünün temel odak noktalarından biridir. Bu doğrultuda Türkiye ekonomisinde çok sayıda çalışma genç işsizliğin dinamiklerini analiz etmeye odaklanmıştır. Ancak konuyu Türkiye’de cinsiyet bazında ve mikro temelli ele alan çalışma sayısı oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmada, 2014-2019 döneminde İBBS-2 düzeyinde yer alan 26 bölgede genç işsizliğin dinamikleri ve bu dinamiklerin cinsiyete göre farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığı incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuçları, kişi başına gelir değişkeninin hem toplam genç işsizliği hem de cinsiyete göre genç işsizliği negatif etkilediğini göstermektedir. Göreli kohort büyüklüğünün ve iç göçün her üç kategorideki genç işsizliği de pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Enflasyon oranındaki artış genç kadın işsizliğini artırırken genç erkek işsizliğini azaltmaktadır. Benzer şekilde, ilk evlenme yaşındaki artış ise genç kadın işsizliğini artırırken, genç erkek işsizliğini azaltmaktadır. Bulgular genel olarak değerlendirildiğinde, belirleyicilerin genç kadın işsizliği üzerindeki etkisinin genç erkeklerdeki etkisinden daha büyük olduğu dikkat çekmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, gençlerin işgücü piyasasına entegrasyonuna yönelik geliştirilecek politikalarda cinsiyet faktörünün göz ardı edilmemesi gerektiğine vurgu yapılmaktadır.
Regional Youth Unemployment in Turkey: Do Determinants Vary by Gender?Mert Topcu, Lütfi Biçimveren
Economic theory addresses unemployment as one of the crucial macroeconomic problems. Given the contributions to the production process, labor market integration of youth population is one of the main focuses of the labor economics literature. In this direction, a great number of studies have analyzed the dynamics of youth unemployment in the Turkish economy. However, a limited number of studies have investigated the issue in the case of Turkey with respect to gender using micro-level data. Given this knowledge, this study attempts to examine the determinants of the youth unemployment in 26 regions categorized under NUTS-2 over the period 2014-2019, and investigate whether those determinants vary by gender. Estimation results indicate that per capita income negatively affects both the total youth unemployment and youth unemployment by gender. Relative cohort size and internal migration positively affects all of the three youth unemployment categories. An increase in inflation rate increases youth female unemployment whereas youth male unemployment decreases with inflation. In addition, while an increase in age at first marriage increases youth female unemployment, it decreases youth male unemployment. Overall, the findings reveal that the impact that regional youth unemployment dynamics has on youth female unemployment is greater than on youth male unemployment. This study emphasizes that gender-based differences should be taken into account while developing policies towards the integration of youth into the labor market.
Economic theory is in a broad consensus that enhancing youth population’s prospects is the most effective way to achieve productive employment and sustainable economic growth. Therefore, every single country cares about the status of the younger population and invests in their human capital in order to reach these macroeconomic goals. Despite of all these efforts, however, youth unemployment rates have still been very high across the globe over the last two decades. For example, the average youth unemployment rate for Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development countries as well as European Union (EU) member states was above 12%, which was slightly higher than that for Turkey in the early 2000s. In the late 2010s, however, Turkey experienced youth unemployment rates almost over 20%, which was higher than the averages experienced by the EU and OECD countries. Given this prominence, it is very important to investigate the dynamics of youth unemployment to shed light on what drives the youth labor force to become unemployed. In this direction, there exist a great number of studies examining the dynamics of youth unemployment, not only for multi-country cases (see, for example: Awad, 2019; Jimeno and Rodriguez-Palenzuela, 2003; among others), but also for those in the case of Turkey (see, for example: Kabaklarli and Gur, 2011; Sever and Igdeli, 2018; among others). Although the literature in the case of Turkey is very well-documented, we still do not know much about what the dynamics are once the issue is using micro-level data. To the best of our knowledge, Didin Sonmez and Ozerkek (2018) is the only study that examines this issue in Turkey from the regional point of view.
In terms of market structure, Turkey looks like a men-dominated labor market where only one third of women participate in. When the split between youth female unemployment and youth male unemployment is examined, in addition, it is very apparent that average unemployment of youth females is higher than that of youth males. It is therefore likely to expect that regional unemployment dynamics in Turkey could vary by gender.
Given the aforementioned information, the goal of this study is to investigate the determinants of youth unemployment in 26 regions categorized under NUTS-2 in order to find out whether those determinants vary by gender. To this end, we use annual observations spanning from 2014 to 2019 within a regional panel framework.
Having found that all the variables in the system are I(0), we estimate the slope coefficients using regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, proposed by Driscoll and Kraay (1998). The error structure in this estimator is assumed to be heteroskedastic, autocorrelated up to some lag, and possibly correlated between the cross sections. Given that this approach does not limit the number of cross sections, it becomes very feasible even when the number of cross sections is much larger than the time dimension. Estimation results indicate that per capita income negatively affects both total youth unemployment and youth unemployment by gender. Relative cohort size and internal migration positively affects all of the three youth unemployment categories. An increase in the inflation rate increases youth female unemployment whereas youth male unemployment decreases with inflation. In addition, while an increase in age at first marriage increases youth female unemployment, it decreases youth male unemployment.
Overall, the findings reveal that the impact that regional youth unemployment dynamics has on youth female unemployment is greater than on youth male unemployment. As a crucial policy recommendation, this study emphasizes that gender-based differences should be taken into account while developing policies towards the integration of youth into the labor market. In order to eliminate the exclusion effect that the findings address, for instance, youth female-oriented employment policies should be supported much more. Other potential policy implications pertaining to the empirical results are also discussed in the study.