Gülşah

Res. Assist.

Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment  Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Mustafa

Sefa

Is China Growing Dirty? A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks

Erdemalp

The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in  Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics  and Machine Learning Approach

Mürşit

Public Expenditures, Economic Growth and  Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from the  Commonwealth of Independent States

Salih

Assist. Prof.

Mervan

Testing the Weak-Form Market Efficiency for the Islamic  Market Indices: Evidence from Fourier Wavelet ADF  Unit Root Test

Ömer

Melike

In the last two centuries, the world has gone through a period in which attempts to achieve economic, social, and political integration have been made, and international trade, cultural changes, and political integration have been experienced more than ever before. For this reason, the role of globalization in economic growth and development is considered among the important topics in the literature. In this respect, it is important to evaluate the energy consumption-economic growth relationship in the context of globalization and clarify the influence channels between these variables.The aim of this study, which is based on these approaches, is to handle the question of whether energy consumption, globalization, and economic growth are related to each other. This study examines the causality relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, globalization, and economic growth between 1990 and 2018 in 15 emerging market economies that need globalization and increased energy use to achieve a high growth rate.&nbsp;Although the effect of fossil-based energy use on growth has been discussed for many years, it has frequently been found that renewable energy sources have been included in recent models. With this in mind, both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption were added to the model of the study as variables. Another variable considered in the model is the globalization index. Dreher (2006), based on the idea that globalization has social and political characteristics in addition to its economic nature, first created a composite index that includes economic, social, and political elements to measure globalization. The globalization index, which was developed at various stages, was based on these three dimensions. Other variables included in the model are GDP, labor, and capital, which represent economic growth.In the literature, it is seen that many empirical studies have been conducted based on different models and produced from the variables of energy consumption, globalization, and&nbsp;economic growth. These studies, which are generally based on (i) energy consumption and economic growth, (ii) globalization and economic growth, and (iii) energy consumption and globalization relations, vary according to the way the subject is handled. In some studies, the effects of variables on economic growth, and in some studies, the effects on energy consumption have been taken into account. While the effects of non-renewable energy sources are mainly taken into account in the energy consumption variable, recent studies also take into account the effects of renewable energy sources. In the literature, the dimensions of globalization have been shaped over time. In earlier studies, trade and foreign direct investments were used as proxies of globalization, but the necessity of emphasizing not only the economic aspect of globalization but also its social and political dimensions made the globalization variable a multidimensional index that also includes economic, social, and political elements.In this study, in which panel data techniques were used, it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth, according to the findings obtained from the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test. This finding confirms the “feedback hypothesis” in the theoretical literature. Another finding is that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between globalization and economic growth.These findings show that generally renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, globalization, and economic growth are the causes of each other. The economic growth that emerges as a result of the production activities carried out in the specified period for the 15 emerging market economies also needs the energy input used in these production activities to a large extent, and the energy input used also increases the output and triggers economic growth. The ability of these emerging market economies, which have an average income of 8,500 dollars, to reach the levels of developed countries depends on their rapid economic growth. In this case, it is possible to predict that fossil-based energy consumption will continue. However, it is essential for sustainable economic growth that these countries switch to renewable energy by supporting the sectors operating in the field of green and clean energy. Fossil-based energy sources have a certain period of use.At the same time, this study supports the idea that globalization is also related to economic growth. From this point of view, it would not be wrong to say that integrations in economic, social, and political fields establish a tight network with economic growth and energy consumption. The policy proposal that can be drawn from this study is to continue to consume non-renewable energy at certain levels - for continued economic growth- provided that the weight of use of renewable energy is increased in a planned and gradual way in emerging market economies.&nbsp;

The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Globalization, and  Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for Selected Emerging Market  Economies

Hatime

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Happiness  and Socioeconomic Conditions: Differences Across  Countries and Individuals' Personality Traits

Halil

Fatih

The COVID 19 pandemic has adversely affected the economic structures of almost all countries. Quarantine measures taken to prevent the spread of the pandemic are one of the reasons why economies are negatively affected. In this period, governments took measures to suspend some commercial activities to reduce the effects of the pandemic. The measures taken have led to a decline in global demand, bringing production, transportation, manufacturing, and other economic activities to a standstill in most economies.The quarantine measures taken to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic also adversely affected the macroeconomic indicators of the countries. During this period, GDP in the European Union decreased by more than 6% compared to last year (EUROSTAT, 2021). Similarly, with the effect of the measures taken, great supply shocks were experienced, and the global trade volume contracted. This has led to a decrease in employment and an increase in unemployment rates. In 2020, when the pandemic was most intense, the unemployment rate in the EU was 7.1% on average. Likewise, tax reductions, credit facilities and subsidies to prevent companies in trouble in the short term have caused the budget balance in EU countries to deteriorate. The fact that the EU average in terms of budget deficit is 0.5% in 2019 and 6.9% in 2020 summarizes the emerging situation (EUROSTAT, 2021).Like the economic difficulties experienced by the EU member states, Turkey, which is in the process of joining the EU, has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has also caused supply and demand shocks in the Turkish economy. Due to the measures taken against the pandemic, the balance between public revenues and expenditures has deteriorated. Foreign capital outflow accelerated in 2020, which brought about an increase in exchange rates. The pandemic similarly affected macroeconomic indicators such as production, employment, current account balance, budget balance, and central government debt burden negatively (Adıgüzel, 2020, p.219). Turkey caught the pandemic at a time when the economy was in recession and structural problems were intense. Especially in the last four years, the low acceleration in the economy has put more strain on the macroeconomic balances. In the early stages of the pandemic in Turkey, measures were generally taken through semi-financial channels. Credit expansion on favorable terms through public banks and government credit guarantees were the leading ones. The difficulties Turkey has experienced in recent years in terms of monetary policy have increased with the pandemic. These developments resulted in the deterioration of economic performance.The development of multi-criteria decision-making methods has provided the opportunity to rank the economic performance of countries, to choose between alternatives and to classify countries (Karahan et al. 2021, p. 584). Multi-criteria decision-making methods are expressed as both an approach and a set of techniques aimed at making a general order from the most desired to the least desired among the options (Dodgson et al., 2009, p. 50). The purpose of multi-criteria decision-making methods is to improve the quality of decisions by making alternative criteria more clear, usable, and effective, and to provide decision makers with strong abilities to analyze, discover and compare a series of incompatible alternatives (Dinçer, 2011, p. 563).&nbsp;In this study, the economic performances of the European Union member states and Turkey were analyzed by Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS), one of the multicriteria decision-making methods, in 2020, when the pandemic was first seen, and its economic effects were most aggressive. The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the economic performances of 27 member states of the European Union and Turkey in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic began. COPRAS method, one of the multi-criteria decisionmaking methods, was preferred for performance analysis. To measure the economic performance, seven criteria consisting of the percentage of GNP Growth, GNP per capita in Euros, current account balance, budget balance/GDP ratio, unemployment rate, EU Defined General Government Debt stock/GDP ratio and inflation rate were used.According to the results of the study, the ranking from the highest to the lowest points in the context of the estimated data for the countries is: Slovenia, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, Czechia, Austria, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Finland, Croatia, Ireland, Bulgaria, Portugal, Malta, France, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. When the ranking made according to the COPRAS results and the country data are examined, it is observed that the countries in the first places generally have low inflation rates, low unemployment rates, and have current account surpluses. However, the shrinkage in the economy is at smaller levels in the first place. In the countries that are in the last place according to their score points, inflation is not very serious except for Turkey. Large current account deficits are given. Budget deficits are at high levels. Unemployment rates are very high. Public debt burden is high in countries other than Turkey.&nbsp;

Evaluation of the Economic Performances of the European Union Countries  and Turkey in the Covid-19 Process with the COPRAS Method

Güner

Server

The study obtained 399 observations over a 3-year review period between 2017 and 2019 for 133 consolidated companies. The study aims to provide a faster and more reliable model for producing results with regard to banks’ scoring/rating studies based solely on cash flow statements in terms of companies’ financial data. In essence, the XGBoost algorithm was used in the Python machine learning methods to attempt to show that companies can indeed perform a successful scoring study using their cash flow statements.With the increased competition in the banking sector, having banks maintain their assets with sustainable profitability is extremely important for both customer satisfaction and banks. Credit score analyses are a laborious, attention-gaining study process. Banks have been researching the most accurate credit risk assessment methods for many years. New methods have started being used alongside the developments in technology. One of these can be machine learning algorithms using the program Python.By abandoning the traditional statistical methods in the banking sector, a new model with modern methods has been presented to the banking and financial sectors that uses machine learning algorithms. With regard to the data set, the study has selected consolidated companies compiled from manufacturing, trade, and service sectors and excluding construction sectors. At the same time, the study has preferred consolidated companies because of the great importance group companies have with regard to the credit evaluation process. By developing a model in this context, the study intends to emphasize how important the consolidated (i.e., group company) credit score is in the credit evaluation process in the case of a balanced scorecard study.Firstly, the study will present the introduction and discuss the literature review and then talk about the concept of group companies and their credit evaluation process. The following sections of the study will address the three algorithms of extreme gradient boosting, gradient boosting, and neural networks, which are machine learning techniques used in credit scoring.The study’s pre-model preparation phase discusses the details of the dependent and independent variables and conducts pre-model data cleaning. Correlation analyses (featureto-feature correlations, feature-to-target correlations) were performed in this context, and the outlier values were determined for the data. The outlier values for the variables were not extracted from the data, as removing them from the data would reduce the number of observations. Instead, the Robust Scaler method, which is sensitive to outliers, was used to scale the data.During the phase of setting up the model, training and test set partitioning involved the following. A cross-validation analysis was performed on the training set, and the training set was divided into five subsets. As a result, the cross-validation training and test set accuracy score results were compared. The test results from the model were determined to have an 80% accuracy score in XGBboost (eXtreme gradient boosting), a 77.5% accuracy score for gradient boosting, and a 61.25% accuracy score for the artificial neural networks.The study has preferred the XGBoost algorithm model with its 80% accuracy score and 82% score for area under the receiving operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). The model’s ROC curve is shown in figure 12, and the area below the curve (AUC) is 82%. The XGBoost’s confusion matrix is also shown in figure 8 and reveals our model’s predictive performance power. In this context, the probability of success is estimated based on a 52% classification threshold using 80 observational test data with the model possessing the highest performance. Ratings of A, B, C, D, or E were given to the companies based on their probability of success.This study presents a model that is able to provide companies with a reliable scorecard/ rating model in a shorter time by taking only their cash flow statement in terms of financial data. In this way, banks can manage risk appetite with maximum optimization and provide extra customer satisfaction with faster analyses. This study involves rapid credit score rating and can at the very least provide solutions to companies’ short-term loan demands.&nbsp;

Credit Scoring on Cash Flow Table with Machine Learning: XGBoost  Approach

Ayfer

Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries

Tamerlan

Stock Market Price Forecasting Using the Arima Model:  an Application to Istanbul, Turkiye

Kübra

According to economic theory, firms postpone recruitment and investment, consumers postpone their durable goods purchases, and economic activities decrease in periods of increased uncertainty. In periods when uncertainty decreases after a period of high uncertainty, economic activity improves as it begins to adjust to the suppressed demand companies and consumers have for hiring, investments and consumption.Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) developed a new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index based on the frequency with which keywords related to economic policy uncertainty are published in newspaper articles. This index has contributed to a better analysis of the potential effects from uncertainty by comprehensively covering the sources of uncertainty. EPU indices aim to predict the uncertainties about who will make the economic policy decisions, which economic policy actions will be taken, and when the economic effects of policy actions and the economic consequences of non-economic political issues.The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect the economic policy uncertainty indices (EPUs), have on European countries’ stock market indices as a representation of these countries’ national economic policy uncertainties. In addition, determining the relationship between countries’ economic policy uncertainty and stock market indices and having policymakers develop policies that are resistant to uncertainties will benefit financial market participants in terms of portfolio diversification.This study has investigated the relationship between European countries’ national economic policy uncertainty indices and their relative benchmark stock market index prices using the panel autoregressive distributed lag/pooled mean group (ARDL/PMG) estimator within the scope of a panel data analysis. Germany, Italy, England, France, and Spain are the five European countries that have been examined in this direction a panel data-set was created using these countries’ respective national economic policy uncertainty indices and benchmark stock market indices for the 2002 December-October 2021 period. The basic method used in the study is the panel ARDL analysis, which examines the short- and longterm relationships between panel data series. However, the study needs to examine the homogeneity assumptions and cross-section dependencies of the panel data series to be used in the analysis before testing this relationship. The study uses the first-generation of panel unit root tests for the stationarity analysis of the series without cross-sectional dependence and the second generation of unit root tests for the stationarity analysis of series with cross-section dependence. Therefore, in order to continue the analysis with the correct unit root test, the study needs to test the cross-sectional dependence between the series. The homogeneity, cross-section dependency, unit root, and cointegration tests that will be performed with the panel ARDL analysis constitute the econometric method of the study. The study uses the second generation of unit root tests and panel ARDL/PMG estimator in the line with this method.This research presents empirical results that support economic policy uncertainty in European countries to impact the indices of Europe’s leading stock markets. In the line with the study’s findings, short- and long-term significant negative relationships have been determined to exist between European countries’ national economic policy uncertainty and their stock market indices. The study’s findings have important implications for policymakers, financial market participants, asset managers, and international investors and reveal the need for policymakers to develop policies that are resistant to global uncertainties and shocks. Financial market participants and asset managers should monitor changes in economic policy uncertainty as well as the direction of these changes and position their portfolios in accordance with the changes in economic policy uncertainty that may have short-term and long-term effects on stocks. Meanwhile, the findings provide international investors with important information that will allow them to be able to obtain higher returns from their financial assets and diversify their portfolios with suitable assets.&nbsp;

Examining the Relationship Between National Economic Policy Uncertainty  and Stock Market Indices: An Empirical Analysis for Selected European  Countries

Ayşen

Yavuz

In today’s world, as in all areas of life, technological developments have caused significant changes in economic activities. The ever-increasing marginal cost of time necessitates that economic activities be completed quickly, as with many other issues. As a result, studies on electronic money have been carried out regarding how to complete, record, and monitor monetary movements more quickly and the use of e-money becoming widespread.A great deal of research on e-money has been conducted regarding how various e-money systems work. A significant number of articles have also focused on privacy and security issues related to e-money use. Apart from these, studies have also focused on the effect of e-money on the monetary system. More specifically, related studies have focused on whether e-money poses a threat to central banks’ ability to control the value of national currencies through traditional monetary policies and on the introduction of e-money for the future of central banks and monetary policy effectiveness as a whole.The technology acceptance model (TAM), which forms the basis of the study, is frequently used to examine the factors that affect the adoption of new technology. TAM was used in its first stage to examine the factors that affect the acceptance of a particular technology by people in a particular place or region. For example, learning the factors that affect the acceptance of users when computers are used for the first time in businesses is extremely important because a prolonged adaptation process will disrupt business processes and increase costs.TAM is composed of the variables of perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease-of-use (PEU), attitude (A), and intention to use (IU) and aims to examine the factors that affect user’s behavior intention (UBI) regarding the related technology. During the process, different researchers arranged the model, included exogenous variables suitable for the conditions of the time and the purpose of the research, and repeated the study.In addition to TAM, the research aims to understand the acceptance of e-money use in the market in addition to the cash currencies that are used and that have dematerialized in the digitalized world.In line with this purpose, a survey has been conducted with the participation of 165 individuals residing in Istanbul who have a master’s degree education level or higher, who are knowledgeable about e-money, and who work in companies operating in the finance sector. In the research process, data were collected in February 2022. The data analysis used the package statistics program Smart PLS and the variance-based structural equation model (SEM), a second-generation multivariate statistical analysis technique.The study results show mobile applications to have had a great impact on the selection of user-friendly interface software and e-money applications. Users declared choosing applications that are easy to use, understandable, user-friendly, accurate, and fast; that offer options; and that are safe to use and easy to benefit from. In addition, the results show that users who feel confident with mobile applications will recommend them to those in their surroundings, and will expand the use of mobile applications both in their social lives and in their work. Those who use mobile e-money applications developed for e-money are understood to be able to improve their user attitudes toward mobile application use through the determinations they make regarding the application’s perceived ease of use. Meanwhile, the variables determined within the scope of the study and the hypotheses of the established model are seen to have been verified.In addition, e-money mobile application users are understood to continue using mobile applications they consider to be beneficial, with their attitudes being focused on the benefits. When e-money application owners evaluate the benefits perceived by a mobile application’s other users, they may conclude an increase to have occurred regarding the intention to use a mobile application.In addition to the present study, the use of e-money is concluded to be currently possible using the technical devices people widely possess, and the creation of e-money applications can be used by wider masses due to the economic, functional, and protective features e-money provides that can be considered competitive compared to other currencies.&nbsp;

Examining Individuals’ Attitudes Toward Electronic Money in the  Framework of the Technology Acceptance Model

Abdullah

Do Interest-Free Financial Organizations Offer Fair  Prices to Their Customers?

Oğuzhan

Bülent

In this study, the short and long-term effects of the credit portfolio concentration level in the Turkish banking sector, where there is a dual banking system, are investigated on financial stability and performance in conventional and Islamic banking systems. In this context, two main research questions are examined in the study. These questions are as such:· “Does the level of credit portfolio concentration have an impact on the financial stability of conventional and Islamic banks in Turkey and does it lead to differentiation?” · “Does the level of credit portfolio concentration have an impact on the financial performance of conventional and Islamic banks in Turkey and does it lead to differentiation?”The results of empirical studies on how loan portfolio concentration/diversification affects financial stability and performance in the dual banking system differ from country to country. It is thought that this situation is caused by structural conditions such as the functioning of the banking system, legal infrastructure, sectoral differences, and the level of development of the country and the market. As a result of the literature review, it has been concluded that it is not possible to make a generalization in terms of the relationship between financial stability and performance and loan portfolio concentration. However, in the study, the relevant literature was examined in depth and prominent current studies were evaluated.In the study, the short-term and long-term effects of credit portfolio concentration on financial stability and performance in the dual banking system were investigated through cointegration tests. In the analysis made with monthly data for the period of January 2005 and December 2021, the Z score representing the risk of bankruptcy for financial stability and the return on assets ratio (ROA) for financial growth were used as dependent variables. In the models, credit portfolio concentration index, leverage ratio, bank size, liquidity coverage ratio and management quality are added to the models as independent variables.&nbsp;According to the unit root test results of the variables, long and short-term effects in conventional banking system were analyzed with ARDL method and in Islamic banking with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods together with Johansen Cointegration Test.According to the results of the analysis, although the credit portfolio concentration in the conventional banking system has a significant and negative relationship with the bankruptcy risk, which represents financial stability, in the long run, no effect of the concentration on financial performance was observed. Among the independent variables, only the liquidity coverage ratio affects positively to the bank performance. The short-term error correction coefficients of the models have significant values between 0 and -1. This indicates that short-term imbalances converge to the long-term equilibrium level over time. In addition, it has been observed that some of the short-term lagged values of the independent variables, especially the loan portfolio concentration index, have significant positive or negative effects.In the Islamic banking system, there is no evidence that the credit portfolio concentration has any effect neither the financial stability nor financial performance in the long run. On the other hand, in the long run, it has been concluded that bankruptcy risk and ROA value is determined by the management quality, leverage ratio, liquidity coverage ratio and bank size. When short-term relationships are examined, vector error correction coefficients take significant values between 0 and -1, similar to conventional banking models. In addition, it has been found that although loan portfolio concentration has a positive effect on financial stability in the short term, it has no effect on financial performance.In summary, it has been concluded that the loan portfolio concentration differs in terms of financial stability in the dual banking system in the long run, but does not differ in terms of financial performance. In the short run, negative effects in conventional banking and positive effects in Islamic banking at the same lag levels in terms of bankruptcy risk can be considered as an indicator of differentiation. From the perspective of financial performance, it is striking that credit concentration does not have a serious effect in the short run.&nbsp;

The Effect of Loan Portfolio Concentration Level on Financial Stability and  Performance: A Comparatıve Analysis in Dual Banking System

Seyed

Mahsa

Mehdi

Trade Liberalization and Environmental Pollution in Iran

Ahmet

Prof.

Call for Papers for the Special Issue "JEPR: 10th Anniversary"

Anet

Examining the Relationship Between Female Employment Rate and Poverty in the Context of Three Fragile Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Süleyman

The Role of Global Financial Risk Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Government Debt: The Case of Türkiye

Sedef

Tuğba

The economic effect of infrastructure investments have on economic growth has attracted a great deal of attention from policymakers and researchers since the pioneering study fromAschauer (1989), who used the Cobb-Douglas production function approach and found public capital to be an important input for the USA and a high stock of public infrastructureto contribute to economic growth (Elburz, Nijkamp and Pels, 2017). Following Aschauer’s (1989) seminal work, quite a number of papers have been devoted to assessing the effect of infrastructure on growth using various data and empirical methodologies (Calderón and Servén, 2010). However, no consensus exists in the literature regarding the relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth. In part, this is because the studiescarried out to date have used different approaches for measuring infrastructure and growth and have focused on different time periods and geographies (Välilä, 2020). Many studies have found infrastructure investments to positively impact economic growth. However, some studies have found either no relationship or a negative relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth (see Timilsina, Hochman and Song, 2020).The points of view on infrastructure investments differ according to countries’ development levels. Because many developed countries’ infrastructure systems are at a saturation level, infrastructure investments in these countries generally occur in the form of improvements to the existing infrastructure stock. Many middle-income countries within the developing country group have insufficient existing infrastructure investments. For this reason, new infrastructure investments and services need to be provided. As a result, countries’ income level emerges as an important criterion to consider for showing the effectsThe points of view on infrastructure investments differ according to countries’ development levels. Because many developed countries’ infrastructure systems are at a saturation level, infrastructure investments in these countries generally occur in the form of improvements to the existing infrastructure stock. Many middle-income countries within the developing country group have insufficient existing infrastructure investments. For this reason, new infrastructure investments and services need to be provided. As a result, countries’ income level emerges as an important criterion to consider for showing the effects of infrastructure investments have on economic growth. Although many studies have been conducted to reveal the relationship between infrastructure and economic growth for developed and underdeveloped countries (especially in the region of Africa), this relationship has yet to be adequately addressed in middle-income countries. For this reason, this study examines the effect of infrastructure on economic growth within the framework of an endogenous growth model based on Barro’s (1990) work by considering upper-middleincome countries for the 2011-2020 period. According to endogenous growth theories, technology and human capital are not the only factors influencing economic growth. Barro asserted things such as government investment in education and infrastructure to also play asignificant role in economic growth. According to Barro (1990), investing in public infrastructure is motivated by two factors: in a positive scenario, an increase in productive government spending will boost private capital’s marginal product and generate sustained growth in per capita income, whereas in a negative scenario, per capita growth decreases when taxing income is used to finance public infrastructure.This study employs a system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation approach for measuring the effects of different infrastructure types on economic growth.According to the GMM estimation results, telecommunication, energy use, electricity consumption, and gross fixed capital formation have significant and positive effects, whiletransportation has no impact on economic growth in higher middle-income countries. The telecommunication model shows a 1% increase in investment in telecommunication to increase economic growth by 0.0098 units. Energy use and electricity consumption models indicate a 1% increase in energy use and electricity consumption to increase economic growth by 0.0073 and 0.0152 units, respectively. Finally, the gross fixed capital formation model shows a 1% increase in gross fixed capital formation to increase economic growth by 0.029 units. The insignificant findings regarding the transportation model may be due to a lack of data. In this paper, we find evidence that infrastructure investment is essential for promoting economic growth. The evidence also suggests that this role does not differ in higher-middleincome countries. The empirical approach encompasses different infrastructure types toaccount for the potential effect of every single infrastructure component, and the results indicate that all infrastructure types except transportation significantly impact economic growth.

An Econometric Analysis on the Relationship between Infrastructure and Economic Growth

Hasan

İsmail

Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation

Veysel

Res. Assist. Dr.

Interest in the forces that drive food prices is increasing, as well as the effects from factors such as global warming and climate change that have become more dominant with the COVID-19 pandemic (Van Bodegom &amp; Koopmanschap, 2020; Barrett et al., 2021; Rasul, 2021; Wahidah &amp; Antriyandarti, 2021; Dorward &amp; Giller, 2022). The events that accompanied the worldwide spread of the COVID-19 pandemic can also be studied to provide a real example of how uncertainty is able to severely impact the global economy. In particular, economic and political uncertainties involve oil, gold, and cryptocurrency markets and can have negative effects on the food sector (Al‐Thaqeb et al., 2022). The primary aim of this study is to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainties on food prices. Its secondary aim is to draw attention to the increases in the number of extreme climate events and in food prices in recent years and to enrich the literature on this topic. The secondary aim of the study also forms the motivation of the study. Two main studies have investigated the direct effects of economic policy uncertainty on food prices. The first of these was Wenet al. (2021), who examined the symmetric and asymmetric relationships. The findings from their study indicated anincrease in economic policy uncertainty to cause a significant increase in food prices both in the short and long run. In addition, an asymmetric relationship was found between the variables in the short run. The other study by Kirikkaleli and Darbaz (2022) discussed the relationship food prices have with the economic policy uncertainty index, as well as with the dollar index and the energy price index. Their study’s findings revealed food prices to also increase during volatile periods of high uncertainty. Moreover, economic policy uncertainty is shown as a long-term and permanent cause of food prices. Wen et al. (2021) and Kirikkaleli and Darbaz (2022) emphasized the need to further investigate the effects of uncertainties on food prices in order to ensure stability in food prices; however, the literature on this topic is still quite sparse. Therefore, this study is thought to be able to contribute to the sparse literature by using different methods and discussing results over a country group. This study examines the relationships with food price inflation in countries using monthly data for the period of January 1997-September 2022. The following data are used for this purpose: global economic policy uncertainty and food price inflation in China, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, the Republic of South Africa, Türkiye, and the United States. The first stage of the study uses using unit root tests to identify the stationarity levels of the variables. The second stage uses the Hacker andnHatemi-J (2006) causality test to investigate the symmetric causality relationships among the variables. The last stage applies the time-varying causality test based on the Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) causality test while taking into account the changes in the relationships among the variables over time. The Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) causality test examines the presence of causality regarding the overall period. Despite no causal relationship sometimes occurring over the entire period, it can occur in sub-periods. Economic and political events and structural changes in a country can affect this relationship. Therefore, using a timevarying causality test may be more reasonable (Balcılar et al., 2010; Yılancı &amp; Bozoklu, 2014; Erdoğan et al., 2019). The symmetric causality test findings point to the presence of abidirectional causality relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and food inflation only in the United States. The time-varying causality analysis determined causality relationships among all the variables at different periods. Economic policy uncertainty affects food prices in developing countries, affecting the United States relatively longer. In addition, the causality relationship going from economic policy uncertainty to food prices was seen to have intensified in all countries during crisis periods, with economic policy uncertainty affecting food prices more strongly in periods of crisis, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although economic policy uncertainty is not the single leading cause of increases in food prices, the findings from this study provide evidence that economicpolicy uncertainty may be an important dynamic of food inflation. In the fight against food inflation, countries can seek ways to cope with economic policy uncertainty. Although thestudy’s findings point to important implications, the available information in this field is quite insufficient for reaching any definite decisions. Therefore, the potential effects of economic policy uncertainty on food prices require further evidence. Future studies may consider economic policy uncertainty as an explanatory variable while investigating the factors that cause inflation in food prices.

The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Food Prices: A Time-Varying Causality Analysis for Selected Countries

Sinem

İpek M.

Exchange rate volatility is a term that refers to wide fluctuations around the long-term equilibrium value of the exchange rate. The transition to floating exchange rate systems has confronted both developed and developing countries with the uncertainty created by exchange rate fluctuations and the resulting risk problem. Volatility in exchange rates is the main source of exchange rate risk, and is of great importance in this context in terms of its macroeconomic implications. Exchange rate volatility is known to negatively affect many macroeconomic variables such as investment, production, consumption, and economic growth, especially in international trade and capital movements. Therefore, empirical estimation and measurement of exchange rate volatility is important for its pervasive economic implications. The effects sudden and unexpected fluctuations in exchange rates have on basic macroeconomic variables have created a wide field of research, thus laying the groundwork for a very rich theoretical and empirical literature.This study firstly discusses the theoretical framework of the concept of exchange rate volatility and emphasizes the factors that causing exchange rate volatility, as well as the negative effects of volatility on macroeconomic variables. In order to shed light, the study then provides examples from the literature examining exchange rate volatility in Türkiye.The study’s econometric analysis section estimates volatility in the Turkish economy using effective exchange rate data for the period of 2003-2022. The volatility of many financial time series, including exchange rates, is not constant over time, and recent studies have revealed variance as a measure of volatility to not be constant. As such traditional time series models that accept variance as constant are understood to be insufficient for modeling volatility. In this framework, the study will develop modeling techniques such as autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models that are based on the assumption of changing variance and that are suitable for the dynamic structure of financial markets. The ARCH and GARCH models allow volatility to change over time and have been widely used for modeling exchange rate volatility. To estimate exchange rate volatility, the study will first ensure the stationarity of the series, then it will apply the ARCH Lagrange multiplier (ARCH-LM) model to determine whether the variance in the error terms is constant. The study then examines the stationarity of the effective exchange rate series together with the autocorrelation function and the cartesian graph; it then performs the unit root test, with any non-stationary series at that level being made stationary by taking the difference. The study determined the most suitable autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model as a result of the partial and autocorrelation functions of the series. The ARCH effect was investigated regarding the error squares of the determined ARIMA model to determine the volatility of the exchange rate series. Finally, as a result of the analysis made for modeling the exchange rate volatilityin Türkiye, the most appropriate model was determined to be the GARCH(1,1) model. In order to determine the reliability of the model, the study re-performed the ARCH-LM, after which the volatility in the model was seen to have disappeared. Accordingly, theGARCH(1,1) model has been concluded to be a model that eliminates the effects of exchange rate volatility.

Modeling Exchange Rate Volatility in Türkiye: An Empirical Research

Yücel

Fazlı

Ersin

States have the right to sovereignty over the lands within their borders. States collect taxes based on this sovereign right. State sovereignty is related to the taxes a state is able to collect. In today’s democracies, taxation authority is accepted as a legal right of states. In the past, however, no compromise regarding taxation was able to be reached between those with taxation authority and the people bearing the tax burden. While the ruling segment aimed to increase tax revenues, the ruled objected to arbitrary taxation. As a result of these types of revolts, absolute monarchic rule had been overthrown, with taxation authority being gradually taken away from monarchs and kings and passed to parliaments. As a result, these initiatives not only limited taxation authority but also contributed to democracy.The increases in the level of taxation experienced throughout history increased the costs citizens had to bear. For this reason, citizens started to control how governments spend theirtax revenues by participating in the bargaining process. In line with this, governments have had to make more disclosures to their citizens about expenditures. Thus, governments havegained a democratic structure by adopting a more transparent structure. Another approach that examines the relationship between taxation and democracy from a similar perspective is rentier state theory. According to this theory, democracy is weak in states that derive most of their income from inefficient fields such as oil and natural gas. As a matter of fact, due to the low level of taxation, bargaining between citizens and governments remains weak, thus weakening democracy as well. The relationship between the level of taxation and democracyis not limited to the existence of a causal relationship from taxation to democracy. In addition, there are opinions that there is a casual relationship from democracy to taxation. According to this view, society can clearly monitor the economic activities in transparent and accountable states. This situation improves the harmony between the state and the individual and increases the taxation capacity.When examining the empirical literature on the causal relationship between the levels of taxation and democracy, studies are found to have revealed different results. In the literature,a one-way causal relationship has mainly been determined from the level of democratization to tax revenues. However, a substantial number of studies are also found to have revealed aone-way causal relationship from tax revenues to the level of democratization. Apart from these results, studies are also found to have detected bidirectional causality between these two variables, as well as studies that revealed no relationship to be present.This study aims to examine the causal relationship between tax revenues and the level of democratization in a total of 33 countries, including 27 member states of the EuropeanUnion (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland, Cyprus, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Italy, Poland,Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden) and six candidate countries (Albania, Moldova, North Macedonia, Serbia, Türkiye, and Ukraine) over the 2010-2020 period. This relationship was examined using the panel data analysis method. The study uses the panel causality test developed by Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) based on the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test as its method. As for data, the Democracy Index (DI) data, which shows the level of democratization, comes from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU, 2022), and the dataon tax revenues over gross domestic product, which defines the taxation level (TR) comes from the World Bank’s (2022) World Development Indicators and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2022) Data Tax Revenue databases.According to the analysis results, bidirectional causal relationships were found between the level of democratization and tax revenues in the context of the relevant period and countries throughout the panel. When analyzing the results in terms of countries, one-way causal relationships from democratization level to tax revenues were identified in Albania, Greece, Ireland, Moldova and North Macedonia. On the other hand, the countries where one-way causal relationships from tax revenues to the level of democratization were found are Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Romania, and Slovenia. In addition to all these results, bidirectional causal relationships were found between the level of democratization and tax revenues in Poland and Ukraine. No causal relationships were found between taxes and democracy in Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Slovakia, Sweden, Serbia, or Türkiye. The empirical findings of the study show the causal relationship between the level of democratization and tax revenues to differ according to country, and these differences may arise from such things as the social, economic, political, and institutional characteristics of the countries.

An Analysis of the Relationship Between Taxation and Democracy: The Example of European Union Member and Candidate Countries (2010-2020)

Zehra

Prof. Dr.

Seda

Due to internal and external security being two of the most important needs countries have, the defense industry has critical importance. With the collapse of the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991, peace was said to have come to the world, but civil wars have since caused great migrations and increased the importance of the defense industry. Türkiye has an important position in the world as a result of its geopolitical location. The history of Türkiye’s defense industry dates back to the Ottoman Empire, and its defense industry came to the fore again with the Cyprus Peace Operation in 1974, after which the USA placed an arms embargo on Türkiye, marking a turning point where Türkiye began to see itself in a dangerous position. For this reason, Türkiye has sought to reduce its foreign dependency and meet its own national defense inventory needs. The 2016 coup attempt that took place in Türkiye, and the operations against ISIS and the PKK in Syria and Iraq since 2016 have caused Türkiye to make progress in the defense industry in addition to the significant progress it has made since 2000. Over the last decade, Türkiye has become able to mostly meet the needs of its Armed Forces, while also showing a significant export performance by reducing its foreign dependency. Turkish defense industry companies have achieved competitive power in the world defense industry by being among the top 100 companies in the world defense industry with their export figures.The main purpose of the study is to determine Türkiye’s export competitiveness with countries such as Germany, USA, Russia, France, and China, which lead the world in terms of defense exports. The study takes advantage of the widely used revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and comparative export performance (CEP) indices for the competitiveness analysis, which uses armored vehicle, artillery, missile, and ship product groups for the 2010-2020 period.The RCA approach was first introduced by Liesner then later developed by Bela Balassa (Balassa,1965, s.101). The RCA index allows countries to compare their advantage in a particular industry with a different country and is calculated with the following formula:RCAij = (Xij / Xi) / (Xaj / Xa) (1)The dependent variable in the formula is RCA, which is also known as the Ballassaindex and explains countries’ competitive advantage. In the formula, i denotes a particular country and j denotes a particular industry. On the right side of the equation, Xij represents the selected armored vehicle, artillery, missile, and ship products exports of a certain country for a certain period, and Xi represents the total exports of that country during the same period. Xaj, which is in the denominator, represents the total world exports of armored vehicles, artillery, missile, and ship products for a given period, and Xa represents the total world exports for the same period. The CEP index is calculated using the following formula developed by Donges (Donges ve ark.,1982, s.83):CEPirj = (Xij / Xrj) / (Σ Xit / Σ Xrt) (2)where i represents a specific country.CEPirj shows the comparative export performance index of country i versus competitor country j regarding a specific commodity.Xij is country i’s exports of good j over a given period.Xrj is the competitor countries’ exports of good j during the same period.Σ Xit is the total exports of country i during the given period.Σ Xrt is the competitor’s total exports during the same period.According to the results from the RCA index values regarding armored vehicle products for the studied period, Türkiye is seen to have great competitive power. Türkiye has index values similar to the USA’s and stronger competitive power than France, Germany, and China. Türkiye can be said to have a comparative advantage regarding the armored vehicle product group. When compared to other countries regarding the artillery product group, Türkiye had the greatest competitive power between 2011-2014. However, it has lost its strong competitive power in recent years. The results for the missile battery index values show Russia, USA, and France to have strong competitive power and Türkiye to have had no competitive power except for 2015. Türkiye occasionally had competitive power as shown by the fluctuating course it followed regarding ship RCA index values, while other times it had no competitive power during the same period.Türkiye’s armored vehicle product group had a better position than Russia in 2019 as a result of CEP index values. After 2017, Türkiye was more advantageous than the USA. Theexport performance for armored vehicles also exceeded France and China. Regarding the artillery product group, Türkiye has had superior performance compared to Russia in termsof the CEP index values. Despite fluctuations in the index, the export performance for artillery products from the selected countries was very good between 2011-2017. The CEP index values for missiles generally showed a low comparative export performance. Türkiye is seen to have been in a disadvantageous position in this regard. While its ship exportperformance exceeded Russia’s in 2010 and 2019, this was not the case for the other years. Export performance with the USA after 2012 remained high, and Türkiye also stayed in a more advantageous position than China until 2018.

Determining the Competitiveness of Türkiye’s Selected Defense Products: A Revealed Comparative Advantage and Comparative Export Performance

How Does Digital Banking-Driven Financial Inclusion Affect Income Inequality in Türkiye?

Caner

Süleyman Emre

Industrial production is a major macroeconomic indicator due to being one of the main reasons for economic growth. Both developed and developing countries keep up with monthly industrial production index data to ensure targeted economic growth rates. Therefore, raising industrial production results in higher gross domestic product (GDP) levels. Approximating actual capacity to full capacity and enabling firms to produce at lower costs are primary macroeconomic objectives for every country. Thus, increases in capacity utilization are expected to positively affect and increases in producer prices to negatively affect industrial production. Based on this perspective, this study investigates the impacts of capacity utilization rate and producer prices on the industrial production index in Türkiye.By reviewing the existing literature, studies on this subject are noticed to have dealt with this issue with the assumption of a linear relationship. The present study aims to observe the nonlinear impacts of capacity utilization rate and producer prices on the industrial production index. To do this, the study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, which separates the positive and negative shocks caused by the explanatory factors. The NARDL model is a modified version of the linear ARDL model developed by Peseranand Shin (1999) and Peseran et al. (2001). This model has no requirements due to all the variables in the model being integrated in the same order; namely, the series can be I(0) (stationary at level) or I(1) (stationary at first difference). Thus, when some of the variables are stationary at first difference while others are stationary at levels one can continue with the cointegration test using the ARDL model, unlike other cointegration tests. Shin et al. (2014) went on to transform the linear ARDL model into an asymmetrical structure. The structure of the estimated NARDL model in the present study is shown in Eqs. 5 and 6. The variables for the logarithms of the industrial production index, capacity utilization rate, and producer price index are respectively abbreviated as LSAN, LKKO, and LUFE.By utilizing the data obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, the study constructed a data set covering the period of June 2007-September 2022. Due to the data being monthly, the total number of observations is 189. The empirical analysis section of the study first tests the stationarity of the variables (see Table 2). The augmented Dickey- Fuller unit root test suggests the LSAN and LUFE variables to not be stationary at level and LKKO to be stationary. On the other hand, the Dickey-Fuller generalized least squares (GLS) unit root test suggests the LUFE variable to not be stationary at level and the LSAN and LKKO variables to be stationary. Both tests also show all variables to be stationary at their first difference. Due to the variables being unsuitable for integrating in the same order, ARDL-based models should be used to fulfill the needs.The NARDL cointegration test results in Table 3 show the F-statistics to exceed the critical values, which implies the presence of a cointegrating relationship among industrial production, capacity utilization rate, and producer prices. The next step estimates the longterm coefficients of the explanatory factors and applies some diagnostic tests. The results in Table 4suggest a 1% increase in the capacity utilization rate to raise industrial production by 1.63% and a 1% decrease in the same factor to reduce industrial production by 1.27%. On the other hand, a 1% increase in producer prices reduces industrial production by 0.06% while a 1% decrease in the same factor has no statistically significant impact. The fact that positive and negative shocks do not affect at the same rate implies that the shocks from capacity utilization rate and producer prices on industrial production have an asymmetric structure. The diagnostic tests regarding the estimated model show no serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, or misspecification problem to be present in the model and the residuals to be normally distributed. The cumulative sum of the recursive residuals (CUSUM) and the cumulative sum of the squares of the recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ) plot tests are depicted in Figure 1 and Figure 2 and show the estimated coefficients to be stable and within the critical bounds of the model. Lastly, to check the robustness of the asymmetry, the previously estimated model was transformed into a stepwise regression model to test the symmetry hypothesis based on the coefficients of this model. The test results reveal both capacity utilization rate and producer prices to have asymmetric impacts on the industrial production index in Türkiye.The findings from the study briefly suggest that in order to sustain economic growth in Türkiye, policymakers should first raise the capacity utilization rate and prevent any potential decrease in this indicator. Secondly, they should prevent increases in producer prices. However, the findings revealed no statistically significant favorable impact from decreases in producer prices. The ability of the NARDL model to permit asymmetric effects allows for differentiating policy designs against negative and positive shocks.

The Asymmetric Relationship Among Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Producer Prices in Türkiye: The Nonlinear ARDL Model Approach

Şehadet

Saltuk

Environmental degradation, economic conditions, and demographic factors are significant determinants of life expectancy. Life expectancy is the average life of a newborn based on current health conditions (Chukmaitova, 2003, p.4). Life expectancy is also an indicator of a country’s economic, social, and environmental development (Teker, Teker, &amp; Sönmez, 2012, p. 119). Life expectancy has significant effects on the public finances and economic growth of countries due to how it affects the financing of health and retirement benefits. Environmental degradation such as air pollution, water pollution, and climate change can have significantly adverse effects on health and life expectancy. Economic conditions can also play a role in life expectancy, as countries with higher levels of economic development often have better access to health care, education, and other resources that can contribute to longer lifespans. However, income inequality can negatively impact health outcomes due to lower-income individuals possibly having more limited access to health care and other resources. Demographic factors such as infant mortality rate also affect life expectancy.This study examines the effects of CO2 emissions, unemployment rates, infant mortalityrates, and public health expenditures on life expectancy for the period of 2000-2019 for tenhigh-income countries. The variables used in the study have been determined as CO2 emissions for environmental degradation, infant mortality rates for demographic indicators, and unemployment rates and public health expenditures’ share of current health expenditures as the economic variables. Data regarding life expectancy (LE), unemployment rate (UR), infant mortality rate (IMR), public health expenditures (HE), and CO2 emissions have been taken annually from the World Bank (2023) database for the 2000-2019 period. According to the results obtained from the study, evaluating the countries as a group reveals a 1% increase in infant mortality rate to reduce average life expectancy by 0.11%, while increases in CO2emissions, the unemployment rate, and public health expenditures decrease average life expectancy. These do not appear to have a significant effect on the duration. either.Findings from the results regarding the concept of average life expectancy differ for underdeveloped and developed countries. The findings from studies conducted in underdeveloped countries show factors such as clean and easily accessible water, nutrition and food, and environmental health to affect average life expectancy. Teker, Teker and Sönmez (2012) found health expenditures, income, unemployment, and inflation to affect life expectancy in high-income countries. Infant mortality rates are also among the most important factors affecting life expectancy in all countries (Bayın, 2016; Linden &amp; Ray, 2017; Şener, Aslan, &amp; Yiğit, 2019). Private health expenditures have a positive effect on life expectancy in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Şahin (2018) analyzed 16 Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization (APEC) countries using data from the 2000–2013 period.The findings from the current study have revealed a 1% increase in total lifetime health expenditures to increase life expectancy at birth by 0.635%. Some studies have determined the relationship between CO2 emissions and expected CO2 emissions to be a determinant affecting lifespan (Ali &amp; Ahmad, 2014; Issaoui, Toumi, &amp; Touili, 2015; Balan, 2016; Tıraş &amp; Özbek, 2020). The results from the current study indicate unemployment’s negative impact on life expectancy to be highest in England, with a 1% increase in unemployment being associated with a 0.109% decrease in life expectancy. This relationship is weaker in Belgium, Germany, Spain, and the USA, whose decreases range from 0.021%-0.001%. These findings are consistent with previous studies in the field. Furthermore, the current study has found increasing public health expenditures to be able to lead to an increase in life expectancy, with a 1% increase resulting in a maximum increase of 0.12% in England and 0.091% in Italy. This result is also consistent with previous studies (Dhrifi, 2018; Pedram &amp;.Mehrjou, 2019; Tatlı&amp; Barak, 2021). Also, in this study an increase in CO2 emissions negatively impacted life expectancy in France, whereas an increase in infant mortality rate was found to be negatively associated with life expectancy in Canada. Surprisingly and contrary to previous studies, this study found a 1% increase in public health expenditures to reduce life expectancy by 0.193% in Canada. These findings can contribute to having policymakers develop further comprehensive policies regarding the factors that affect life expectancy in high-income countries.

Effects of Environmental Degradation, Economic, and Demographic Variables on Life Expectancy: Panel Data Analysis for High-Income Countries

Technological developments play an important role in economic growth and development. However, the neoclassical approach ignores technological learning and effort by considering technology as an external element. Moreover, this approach assumes that countries will converge in the long run due to free technology. However, these assumptions of the neoclassical approach have been criticized by the evolutionary approach, and special attention has been given to technological learning. In theevolutionary approach, technological learning and imitation are included in the convergence process. In general, convergence is evaluated as an economy’s tendency toward a steady state by growing or shrinking at a certain speed (Ünsal, 2007, p. 157). In this respect, whether technological convergence occurs in developing countries needsto be investigated. This study aims to examine whether technology convergence occursin developing countries. For this purpose, the study considers the ten big emerging markets (BEM-10) of Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico,Poland, South Africa, and Türkiye from among important economies and discusses these emerging economies. Unlike other studies, this one includes total factor and labor productivity in the analysis as supplemental variables, as well as the number of patents, thus aiming to analyze the technological developments among countries in detail overdifferent variables. The study also aims to make significant contributions to the technological convergence literature, which is limited in terms of the scope of study and the variables and analysis techniques that have been used. At the same time, this study differs from other studies that have examined technological developments through different variables, thus showing itself to possess originally.Many theoretical and empirical studies have occurred with regard to the convergence approach. However, due to the scope and content of what is being studied, apart from the fundamental studies on the convergence approach, this article also will extensively examine studies that have evaluated the technological convergence approach in terms of convergence analyses. The papers the study has examined within its scope show that various types of the convergence approach have been developed among countries, regions, and sectors. At the same time, these studies are understood to have examined the presence of convergence using various socioeconomic variables in addition to income convergence. When considering the technological convergence studies, the variables of number of patents, labor productivity, and total factor productivity are seen to have been used intensively to represent technology.In terms of the number of patents, technological convergence has been confirmed in Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Türkiye, China, South Korea, Poland, and South Africa as a result of Pesaran’s (2007) cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) unit root test, as well as South Korea, Argentina, and Poland as a result of the seemingly unrelated regression augmented Dickey-Fuller (SURADF) unit root test. In terms of total factor productivity, Türkiye, Mexico, and Poland are seen to have converged as a result of the Pesaran CADF unit root test, and Türkiye and Mexico as a result of the SURADF unit root test. Regarding labor productivity, convergence has been found in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil based on the Pesaran CADF test and in Mexico based on the panel SURADF test.This study aims to examine whether technology convergence occurs in developing countries. For this purpose, the study has discussed the 10 big emerging markets.Technological convergence is understood to have occurred in a limited number of countries regarding number of patents, total factor productivity, and labor productivity. Natural convergence was not seen to have occurred as assumed in the neoclassical approach. The fact that technological convergence was not confirmed in the group of examined countries offers important implications for developing countries. High income and technology, especially in South Korea, are known to result from conscious policies aimed at science, industry, and technology. In this respect, special attention should be given to technological learning in developing countries. At the same time, policies for national technological efforts and learning need to be developed and implemented consistently. In addition, importance is had in establishing and successfully operating national innovation systems.

Technological Convergence in Emerging Economies: An Investigation with Unit Root Tests

Bibliometric Analysis and Visualization of Research in the Field of Green Economy (1993-2023)

Tuğçenur

As a result of globalization, an increase has been observed in the development of technology, in consumers becoming more conscious, and in greater competition between companies. Companies are working hard to reach a higher level and to gain competitive advantage by making greater use of developing technology. With rapidly developing and changing technology, the demands of consumers are both increasing and becoming more varied in their nature. Thus, creating a fast and secure shopping environment for consumers is inevitable in today's conditions. Electronic commerce, which has started to be used as a new shopping model, provides great convenience to consumers. It is more appropriate for businesses to use e-commerce to meet the needs and demands of consumers, rather than to continue their sales with traditional methods.The aim of this research is to measure consumer behavior based on the sense of trust of consumers shopping via e-commerce. This research is very important in terms of determining factors for both consumers and businesses. By addressing the important points that affect and ensure consumer trust valuable contributions to e-commerce businesses and to future studies in this field can be made. This research was carried out on 409 participants who have social media accounts in Turkey. As a result of the necessary research and in accordance with the research model, the hypotheses of the research were determined as follows.H1: Platform reliability significantly affects brand loyalty.H2: Customer trust significantly affects brand loyalty.H3: Brand loyalty significantly affects purchase intention.H4: There are differences between socio-demographic factors and platform reliability.H4a: There is a difference between gender and platform reliability.H4b: There is a difference between marital status and platform reliability.H4c: There is a significant relationship between age and platform reliability.H4d: There is a difference between educational status and platform reliability.H5: There are differences between socio-demographic factors and customer trust.H5a: There is a difference between gender and customer trust.H5b: There is a difference between marital status and customer trust.H5c: There is a difference between age and customer confidence.H5d: There is a difference between educational background and customer confidence.H6: There are differences between socio-demographic factors and brand loyalty.H6a: There is a difference between gender and brand loyalty.H6b: There is a difference between marital status and brand loyalty.H6c: There is a difference between age and brand loyalty.H6d: There is a difference between educational status and brand loyalty.H7: There are differences between socio-demographic factors and purchase intention.H7a: There is a difference between gender and purchase intention.H7b: There is a difference between marital status and purchase intention.H7c: There is a difference between age and purchase intention.H7d: There is a difference between educational background and purchase intention.While conducting research on the relevant literature, scales consisting of 20 statements were found. In addition, questions that collect information about the demographic characteristics of the survey were found. These scale expressions were used in the research conducted by Uçan in 2020. The survey questions prepared in this research were arranged by the researcher in accordance with the purpose of the research. Thus, only the dimensions of platform reliability, brand trust, brand loyalty and purchase intention were included in the research. When the data were examined, it was determined that there was a positive and significant relationship between platform reliability, brand trust, brand loyalty and purchase intention.Platform reliability was found to affect brand loyalty significantly (p=0.000) and H1 hypothesis was accepted.Customer trust was found to affect brand loyalty significantly (p=0.000) and H2 hypothesis was accepted.Brand loyalty was found to have a significant effect on purchase intention (p=0.000) and H3 hypothesis was accepted.No differences were found between socio-demographic factors and platform reliability, and H4 was rejected.No differences were found between socio-demographic factors and customer trust, and H5 was rejected.No differences were found between socio-demographic factors and brand loyalty, and H6 was rejected.No difference was found between gender and purchase intention, and H7a was rejected.No difference was found between marital status and purchase intention and H7b was rejected.A difference was found between age and purchase intention and H7c was accepted.A difference was found between education level and purchase intention and H7d was accepted.Trade, which is as old as the history of humanity, is the activity of making a profit in return for a certain commodity. Ways of conducting trade have been shaped by people from past to present. E-commerce, which has developed in recent years, is a shopping method that allows us to shop over the internet by moving commerce to the electronic environment.Electronic commerce plays an important role in making shopping easier, safer and more profitable. Businesses want to increase productivity by providing online shopping.Businesses that open websites for online shopping aim to reach wider audiences with electronic commerce in addition to their traditional shopping. In this study, the effect of online shopping trust on consumer behavior in e-commerce was examined.In the study different hypotheses were proposed which considered socio-demographic factors, platform reliability, customer trust, brand loyalty and purchase intention. According to the results of the analysis, all four hypotheses tested were accepted. It was determined that there is a positive significant relationship between platform reliability, customer trust, brand loyalty and purchase intention.An examination of the results of the survey in the light of demographic characteristics revealed that the number of female participants was quite high. In addition, the marital status of the majority of the participants was single, and the level of education was associate degree / undergraduate. As a result of the analysis obtained by correlation modeling and simple linear regression, the data belonging to the structure, platform reliability, customer trust, brand loyalty and purchase intention scales reached the desired values and it was concluded that they were reliable. It was determined that there is a significant and positive relationship between the hypotheses of the research.New concepts and hypotheses can guide future studies and create areas of investigation. In addition, research can be initiated to encourage consumers who avoid shopping to shop online.

The Effect of Trust in Social Media and E-Commerce Companies on Consumer Decision

Recep

In addition to the infrastructure needs caused by developments, population growth, rapid urbanization, pandemics, climate change, and digitalization, among others, an increasing number of countries are utilizing public-private partnerships to provide public services more effectively and quickly. By combining the public and private sector’s dynamism in terms ofproduction speed, quality, technology, and financing, well-designed and implemented public-private partnership projects can yield significant efficiency gains. However, poorly designed and managed public-private partnership projects can result in significant fiscal risks and increased costs due to their complex risk structure and long-term structure. In recent years, public-private partnerships have become more controversial as a result of these features, the necessity of projects, social and economic benefits, and risks and liabilities assumed by the public sector.Within the scope of these discussions, the conceptual framework of public-private partnership was first examined in this study, which was designed to evaluate and analyze the public-private partnership practices in the world and Türkiye using numerical data. In accordance with the increasing need for infrastructure investment, quantitative data on public-private partnership in developing countries and EU countries were subsequently examined, and public-private partnership practices worldwide were analyzed. Moreover, an attempt has been conducted to determine the differences between Türkiye and other countries. Finally, the data on public-private partnership practices in Türkiye were examined, along with the difficulties encountered during the process and the findings related to these difficulties.The study’s findings show that Turkish public-private partnership practices differ from those of other countries. Larger megaprojects are attempted to be realized through publicprivatepartnerships, and the average project size is the first among developing countries, whereas the proportion of projects supported by multinational development banks remains extremely low. The other differences include the fact that all direct supports are of the minimum income support nature despite the share of projects with direct and indirect support being the same as the average; Türkiye is a country where income guarantees are used the most among direct supports; the guarantees given are in foreign currency; and these guarantees are concentrated in the health sector as opposed to the transportation sector.Although a legal framework for public-private partnerships has been established in Türkiye, it is difficult to speak of a clear and well-designed governance framework that encompasses all phases of the process. Nonetheless, the management and reporting of fiscal risks and fiscal transparency issues stand out as the most significant problems in Türkiye’s public-private partnership sector. In reality, there is no publicly accessible information on the fiscal risks of public-private partnerships, neither in Türkiye nor on a global scale. This situation makes it difficult to accurately evaluate and analyze the costs of public-private partnership projects and necessitates the use of estimates and limited data in order to conduct studies. However, these estimates vary considerably from one another. These studies have emphasized that a rise in exchange rates or a potential economic recession can significantly increase the cost of foreign currency guarantees.According to the calculations made in the studies, between 2021 and 2045, a cumulative total of 152.8 billion dollars in income guarantees were provided, and their proportion to the2020 GDP was 22%. According to another study based on Turkish Lira (TL) calculations, public-private partnership guarantee payments in the 2022 budget represent 2% of the central government budget and 0.4% of the GDP. Considering the recent depreciation of the TL, the World Bank estimates that the burden of public-private partnership on the budget will double between 2019 and 2022 (from 1.2% to 2.4%) due to payments made for predetermined guarantees, exchange differences provided to project contractors, and rent payments.To take advantage of the potential benefits of public-private partnership, Türkiye must first address the problems within its governance framework and take the necessary steps to address one of its weakest areas, namely, the management and reporting of fiscal risks, and solve fiscal transparency issues. Therefore, contingent liabilities should be given in TL rather than foreign currency, long-term guarantees should be avoided, and information on guarantees given by institutions that implement public-private partnership projects other than the Treasury should be shared with the public transparently and regularly. Moreover, all guarantees should be consolidated under a single institution, and resources should be usedeffectively, converted into efficient investments, and directed to priority sectors. If these objectives are met, the discussions on public-private partnerships in Türkiye will decrease, the potential contributions of these projects will be enhanced, and their positive contribution to Türkiye’s economic performance will increase.

Public–Private Partnership Practices in the World and Türkiye: A Numerical Analysis

Murat

The execution after 1950 was in the form of the reconstruction roads of Istanbul, the opening of new roads in the city and the continuation of the existing roads in accordance with the road train. This situation has greatly reduced the characteristics of high-capacity public transport vehicles, while the tire can use the wheels in the city. In fact, the general vehicle inspection rate of large passenger transportation vehicles such as trams, buses and trolleybuses has been restored over the years with a decreasing course.As the tram network reached its economic life, it was not renewed and the tram lines were disabled and over time, the rails were dismantled and turned into a highway. Tram services have served Istanbul residents for 90 years on the European side and 38 years on the Anatolian side. Bus and trolleybus services were replaced by tram routes, which were gradually removed until 1960, and the public transportation activities of Istanbul were handed over to rubber-tired motor vehicles.Out of the 268 million passengers carried by public transport in Istanbul in 1951, the share of 19.4 million passengers carried by the IETT bus company was around 7%. The increase in the population of Istanbul and its distribution within the city have led to serious changes in transportation demands. The inability of the public transportation services carried out by thepublic authority to keep up with this change has had an impact on passenger preferences. Thefact that the public transportation vehicles have moved away from providing the desired comfort has pushed the citizens to other searches, including private cars.When the average income per passenger is calculated based on the basic ticket fare, a 29% loss of income is calculated between the years 1960-1975. The income loss is caused by the reduced student fees, as well as the excess number of passengers traveling for free.It is understood that IETT employs quite a lot of personnel. Personnel expenses constitute an important part of company expenses. Between 1967-1973, the share of personnel expenditures in operating expenses was around 69% on average. When the total number of personnel is divided by the vehicle in service, it is understood that an average of 16 personnel serve per bus. The reason this number is significantly high is due to the fact that the maintenance and repairs of the buses are done by the institution. By dividing the population data by the vehicle in service, the population ratio per bus in the enterprise is obtained. It has been calculated that this value was 6,048 people on an annual average in Istanbul between 1960 and 1973.The fact that the vehicle fleet is quite old is the biggest factor that increases the maintenance costs. The fact that there is a fleet of various brands and models makes it difficult to manage the spare part stock. The fact that the parts required for service and maintenance are mostly procured from abroad makes the inventory cost very expensive.Between 1960 and 1965, due to the inadequacy of public transportation vehicles, the increasing role of minibuses and minibuses caused congestion on the roads and traffic jams, as well as a decrease in the commercial speed of transportation vehicles throughout the city. Like public buses and minibuses, minibuses are public transportation vehicles that are not under the control of a single authority, do not run regularly, and are not considered to offer safe transportation services.The gap between Istanbul's passenger demand in general and the service that the public authority can provide has been filled with minibuses and minibuses, and partially by publicbuses. The inability to provide a supply in accordance with the demand in a planned manner has pushed the urban transportation system into a mixed and far from being integrated with each other. The unfair competition of minibuses and minibuses, which are not suitable for the transportation flow of the city, caused blockages on the highway and reduced commercialspeed, as well as reduced the income of the public authority. Leaving aside the rail systems and leaving the burden of transportation to rubber-tired vehicles alone has left Istanbul faced with huge problems. After the 1950s, the city had to deal with the huge burden of rubbertired vehicles and the huge problems it brought.

Economic History of City Bus Management Istanbul (1927-1977)

Studies examining the relationship between per capita income and happiness in the field of happiness economics have recently increased. One of the pioneers of happiness economics was Richard Easterlin, who published his work “Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence” in 1974 as one of the cornerstones of the field.Easterlin stated in this study that a significant correlation exists between happiness and per capita income. However, he claimed that no increase occurred in the happiness levels individuals stated and that the average happiness in rich countries was not higher than that in poor countries, despite the increase in per capita income in the countries that were the subject of his research. This result, on which much research has been made, found its place in the literature as the Easterlin Paradox. However, after this study, two different views emerged on whether an increase in GDP will increase happiness or not.Ruut Veenhoven as another pioneer of happiness economics criticized Easterlin’s (1973, 1974) argument in various studies using the same data as well as other data after Easterlin’swork on economic growth and happiness. Contrary to Easterlin, Veenhoven claimed that an increase in per capita income increases that country’s happiness. Veenhoven stated the results that had been tested with data from many countries had shown the opposite of Easterlin’s claim. Contrary to Easterlin, Veenhoven argued that increasing per capita income increases happiness more in poor and developing countries and less so in developed countries. According to Veenhoven, the Easterlin Paradox was an illusion rather than a rule.In his scientific studies in response to Veenhoven, Easterlin maintained that no long-term relationship exists between economic growth and happiness and that the relationship was uncertain in some countries. In addition, he emphasized in these more recent studies that, although he had observed an increase in income to increase happiness in some countries, this was not long-term and no trend was present between happiness and income. Therefore, and unlike Veenhoven, Easterlin emphasized that one should not focus on the idea that an increase in economic growth will increase happiness. Easterlin instead argued that the need exists for an approach that should focus on other trends in happiness, such as family life, health, and job satisfaction, rather than focusing on economic growth and feeding the illusion that material things will create happiness. In response, Veenhoven agreed with Easterlin’s view that other variables also increase happiness but maintained the argument that GDP growth also increases happiness. According to Veenhoven, as the average life expectancy of people increases with an increase in income, the time they spend more happily will increase with an increase in happiness. Therefore, people’s happiness will increase annually as a result of certain growth.These discussions from both happiness economics pioneers form the cornerstones of the happiness economics literature. This study aims to examine in detail the research and studiesof Easterlin and Veenhoven that occurred in response to one other and to explain the relationship between economic growth and increase in happiness in countries using the results from their studies. As a result, while agreeing with the views of two important happiness economists would be correct, in this case one should still state that the effect of per capita income on happiness should not be underestimated, as Veenhoven has stated. This is because each variable brings different amounts of happiness to people. As the average life expectancy of people increases with an increase in income, the time they spend more happily will also increase with an increase in happiness. When considering all this information, this study concludes that, in addition to social policies that will increase happiness, havingpolicymakers determine policies to increase income will be in the interest of society based on the conclusion that economic growth increases happiness, even if only slightly.

Veenhoven vs. Easterlin in Happiness Economics: Does Economic Growth Increase Happiness?

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Tariff Disadvantages of SMEs in International Trade

Şule

Öğretim Görevlisi

Elifcan

In the globalized world market, the developments made in the fields of trade and industry are of great importance for countries to achieve economic growth. With this movement, the liberalization of trade positively affected the course of international trade in general. As a result of international trade becoming a competitive factor between countries and companies, logistics attracts attention. In line with these developments, the logistics sector gains a strategic dimension and acts as a lever in the economy in order to ensure the sustainability of international trade in the desired dimensions. The logistics sector is one of the most important sectors that attracts intense attention with its investments in the country’s economy, employment and national income, and the development of it through globalized trading networks. In particular, enterprises and countries aiming to increase their competitiveness have been making significant investments for the development of the sector and have great expectations about the possible returns of the sector. As a result of the investments and the expectations, manufacturing sectors are highly affected by the logistics parameters. In addition to this, the investments made for logistics directly affect the commercial formation of businesses or countries in a positive way and increase the trade volume.The importance of logistics for companies and countries in terms of global trade develops and eventually becomes vital. The importance of logistics may vary for the countries in terms of geographies and logistic opportunities. Especially for the countries who have a coast side and can ensure sea transportation efficiently may gain greater profit. Otherwise, it can be observed that the countries in the same region have similarities in terms of economics and global trade. In this study, the common point in logistics activities and the economic point of view are similar to each other. In order to examine the economic magnitude of the countries and the effect of logistics activities on the economic magnitude of the countries concerned, The impact of the logistics sector on the economies of the 15 Mediterranean coasts was analyzed for the period 1980-2018 using the logistic performance index and gross domestic product values with panel data analysis. The results of the analysis covering the years 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 revealed a moderate positive relationship and 32% of the changes in the gross domestic product could be explained by the logistic performance index. On the other hand the strongest relationship between the gross domestic product and logistics performance index is observed Turkey and Albania. Changes in the value of gross domestic product in Turkey and Albania is explained by the high proportion of logistics performance index. This situation shows the importance of logistics activities in the economic magnitude of the two countries concerned. In addition, it is determined that if countries concentrate heavily on “Infrastructure” and “Customs” activities among the activities constituting the logistic performance index, they may have higher gross domestic product.

The Relationship Between Logistics Activities and the Economy of Mediterranean Countries

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Hüseyin

DECISIONS OF THE POWERFUL CAPITALISTS AND UNCERTAINTY: A  RATIONAL EXPECTATION APPROACH

Gülden

The crisis of 2007-2008 was the largest financial crisis since the 1930s and is characterised by being the deepest, most large scale and severe crisis of its predecessors. Davis and Karim (2008) suggested that the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 was revealed as a surprise for both most of the market participants and policymakers. In the early years of 2007, financial institutions such as the European Central Bank (ECB), BIS and the IMF couldn’t anticipate the severity of the crisis or its scope of the international. The recent financial crisis has triggered significant debates concerning economic theory and policy. The most important discussions focused on the question ‘why was the crisis not foreseen?’. In this context, the question that why the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 is not foreseen is considered in three different perspectives. The first view is that the crisis could not be predicted by economists in general and that the recent financial crisis emerged as a surprise for most of the academicians and policy makers. In this respect, the most important criticism towards the question “Why wasn’t the crisis predicted” is directed to the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. These models include real sector variables except for money supply and interest rates. Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models provide detailed predictions about the real economy. Moreover, the equations that composed in these models do not include finance and banking sectors despite the fact that their failures may turn the general economy upside-down. Therefore, It is indicated that by their nature of these models don’t have the appropriate tools in order to struggle with the financial crisis and a suitable structure that cover the dynamics of the crisis. Considering that the long-term stagnations were due to the balance sheet problems partly in the financial sector as a result of the collapse of asset prices since the late 1980s (Bezemer, 2009: 19), necessitate the inclusion of financial markets to these models. Existing deficiencies in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models emerged along with the global crisis. Thus, since 2016, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began to use a new macroeconomic model called MARTIN (Macroeconomic Relationships for Targeting INflation) in its policy analysis and forecasts. In this respect, the study provides a discussion of the methods used by economists in analysing the economy and formulating their proposals. Within this scope, two explanations can be given to the question of why the 2008 global financial crisis could not be predicted. The first was that the failure of economists to expand these models in a way to cover the risk of crisis or consciously prefer to do not so (Davies and McGoey, 2012). The second explanation is the fact that the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models that widely used today keep the especially financial markets out of the model, underestimated the new financial system created by financial institutions and weaknesses in risk assessment techniques. Considering all these factors, it may help explain the question of why the 2007-2008 global crisis couldn’t be predicted. The second view is that the crisis was predicted by some of the economists, but&nbsp;these predictions were not considered and ignored. As mentioned above, the idea that “no one could foresee the crisis” is a widespread opinion among the public, policymakers, and economists in general. Contrary to this view, although the economist/finance managers who are predicting the crisis warned that predominantly financial globalization, the real estate market of the U.S. and derivative products have significant risks, the question of ignoring why these warnings can be answered with a tendency towards “strategic ignorance”. The last opinion is the approach that economics/economists do not need to predict the crisis. This approach explains in the framework of the efficient market hypothesis and rational expectations that economics or economist does not need to predict the crisis.

2007-2008 Discussions on Predictability of The Global Financial Crisis

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Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi is the publication of Istanbul University Center for Practice and Research in Economic Policy . It is an open access, peer-reviewed, international, scholarly journal published biannually in January and July. The manuscripts submitted for publication inthe journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English.

Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with issues in economic policy which impact on national and global economies. The journal provides an international forum for economic theory and practice and aims to publish highly selective, widely cited articles of current relevance that will have a long-term impact on economics research.

Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi covers analytical, interpretive, and empirical studies in a number of areas—including political economy, monetary theory and policy, fiscal policy, labor economics, development, micro- and macroeconomic theory, international trade and finance, financial economics, transport economics and social economics.

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Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with issues in economic policy which impact on national and global economies. The journal provides an international forum for economic theory and practice and aims  to publish highly selective, widely cited articles of current relevance that will have a long-term impact on economics research.Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi covers analytical, interpretive, and empirical studies in a number of areas—including political economy, monetary theory and policy, fiscal policy, labor economics, development, micro- and macroeconomic theory, international trade and finance, financial economics, transport economics and social economics.

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<ul><li>TÜBİTAK-ULAKBİM TR Index</li><li>RePEc IDEAS</li><li>RePEc EconPapers</li><li>DOAJ</li><li>ERIH PLUS</li><li>SOBİAD</li><li>EBSCO Business Source Ultimate </li><li>Cabells Journalytics </li></ul>

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Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi is committed to upholding the highest standards of publication ethics and pays regard to Principles of Transparency and Best Practice in Scholarly Publishing published by the <a href="https://publicationethics.org/" target="_blank">Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE)</a>, the <a href="https://doaj.org/apply/transparency/#principles-of-transparency-and-best-practice-in-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)</a>, the <a href="https://oaspa.org/" target="_blank">Open Access Scholarly Publishers Association (OASPA)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.wame.org/" target="_blank">World Association of Medical Editors (WAME)</a> on <a href="https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing</a>All submissions must be original, unpublished (including as full text in conference proceedings), and not under the review of any other publication synchronously. Authors must ensure that submitted work is original. They must certify that the manuscript has not previously been published elsewhere or is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere, in any language. Applicable copyright laws and conventions must be followed. Copyright material (e.g. tables, figures or extensive quotations) must be reproduced only with appropriate permission and acknowledgement. Any work or words of other authors, contributors, or sources must be appropriately credited and referenced. Each manuscript is reviewed by one of the editors and at least two referees under double-blind peer review process. Plagiarism, duplication, fraud authorship/denied authorship, research/data fabrication, salami slicing/salami publication, breaching of copyrights, prevailing conflict of interest are unnethical behaviors.All manuscripts not in accordance with the accepted ethical standards will be removed from the publication. This also contains any possible malpractice discovered after the publication.

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It is authors’ responsibility to ensure that the article is in accordance with scientific and ethical standards and rules. And authors must ensure that submitted work is original. They must certify that the manuscript has not previously been published elsewhere or is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere, in any language. Applicable copyright laws and conventions must be followed. Copyright material (e.g. tables, figures or extensive quotations) must be reproduced only with appropriate permission and acknowledgement. Any work or words of other authors, contributors, or sources must be appropriately credited and referenced.All the authors of a submitted manuscript must have direct scientific and academic contribution to the manuscript. The author(s) of the original research articles is defined as a person who is significantly involved in “conceptualization and design of the study”, “collecting the data”, “analyzing the data”, “writing the manuscript”, “reviewing the manuscript with a critical perspective” and “planning/conducting the study of the manuscript and/or revising it”. Fund raising, data collection or supervision of the research group are not sufficient roles to be accepted as an author. The author(s) must meet all these criteria described above. The order of names in the author list of an article must be a co-decision and it must be indicated in the <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>. The individuals who do not meet the authorship criteria but contributed to the study must take place in the acknowledgement section. Individuals providing technical support, assisting writing, providing a general support, providing material or financial support are examples to be indicated in acknowledgement section.All authors must disclose all issues concerning financial relationship, conflict of interest, and competing interest that may potentially influence the results of the research or scientific judgment. When an author discovers a significant error or inaccuracy in his/her own published paper, it is the author’s obligation to promptly cooperate with the Editor-in-Chief to provide retractions or corrections of mistakes.

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Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by editor-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope.The editor hands over the papers matching the formal rules to at least two national/international referees for double-blind peer review evaluation and gives green light for publication upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.

Peer Review

Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by editor-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope.  Editor-in-chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors and ensures a fair double-blind peer review of the selected manuscripts.The selected manuscripts are sent to at least two national/international referees for evaluation and publication decision is given by editor-in-chief  upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.Editor in chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal.Reviewers’ judgments must be objective. Reviewers’ comments on the following aspects are expected while conducting the review.-    Does the manuscript contain new and significant information?-    Does the abstract clearly and accurately describe the content of the manuscript?-    Is the problem significant and concisely stated?-    Are the methods described comprehensively?-    Are the interpretations and consclusions justified by the results?-    Is adequate references made to other Works in the field?-    Is the language acceptable?Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side.A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process. The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees is important.

LanguageThe language of the journal is both Turkish and American English.Manuscript Organization and FormatAll correspondence will be sent to the first-named author unless otherwise specified. Manuscpript is to be submitted online via <a href="http://dergipark.gov.tr/login" target="_blank">http://dergipark.gov.tr/login</a> that can be accessed at <a href="https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/home" target="_blank">https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/home</a>. It must be accompanied by a <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/8B20DEB62CBF403F814A12C0F208F32B" target="_blank">title page</a> specifying the article category (i.e. research article, review etc.) and including information about the manuscript (see the Submission Checklist), a cover letter. Manuscripts should be prepared in Microsoft Word 2007 and upper versions. In addition, a <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a> that has to be signed by all authors must be submitted.1. The manuscripts should be in A4 paper standards: having 2.5 cm margins from right, left, bottom and top, Times New Roman font style in 12 font size and line spacing of 1.5 format.2. Footnotes, figures and tables should be placed as much as possible within the page in which they are referred or within the following page. The notes below the figures or tables should be aimed to make these materials understandable without returning to the main text. Tables and Graphics should not be computer output and must fit to A4 paper size.3. Before the introduction part, there should be an abstract of 200-250 words both in English and Turkish. Extended abstract is not required for articles in English. The abstracts should concisely present the aim or the purpose of the study, the methodology, the results, and the conclusion remarks. The abstracts must not contain abbreviations or acronyms. Underneath the abstracts, 5 keywords that inform the reader about the content of the study should be specified in Turkish and in English.4. Submitted manuscripts must involve three JEL code (Journal of Economic Literature) at two digit level (i.e., Q11). For the JEL codes which should be chosen according to the subject of the manuscript, the JEL list given in the web address of <a href="http://www.aeaweb.org/journal/jel_class_system.html" target="_blank">http://www.aeaweb.org/journal/jel_class_system.html</a>  can be used.5. The manuscripts should contain mainly these components: title in English and Turkish, abstract in English and Turkish and keywords in English and Turkish; extended abstract (if the article is in Turkish), sections, footnotes and references.6. Research article sections are ordered as follows: “Introduction”, “Aim and Methodology”, “Findings”, “Discussion and Conclusion”, “Endnotes” and “References”. For review and commentary articles, the article should start with the “Introduction” section where the purpose and the method is mentioned, go on with the other sections; and it should be finished with “Discussion and Conclusion” section followed by “Endnotes”, “References” and “Tables and Figures”.7. Submitted manuscript should contain Turkish and English title of the manuscript, Turkish and English abstracts, Turkish and English keywords, JEL Classification, the main body of the manuscript and references. All should be submitted in one 2007 word document.8. <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/8B20DEB62CBF403F814A12C0F208F32B" target="_blank">Title page</a> including author information must be submitted together with the manuscript. The title page is to include fully descriptive title of the manuscript and authors’ information (affiliation, title, e-mail address, postal address, phone, fax number and ORCID). See The Submission Checklist.9. The responsibility of the articles published in the Journal of Economic Policy Researches belongs to the author.10. In the manuscripts in Turkish, the orthography and writing rules of Turkish Language Association (TDK) should be followed. For detailed information, please go to the web site of TDK: <a href="http://www.tdk.gov.tr/" target="_blank">www.tdk.gov.tr</a>. Instead of foreign words, usage of Turkish words should be preferred. In case of using new or unfamiliar Turkish words, the English equivalent can be provided in parenthesis in the first occurrence.11. All manuscripts submitted in English language, and all English parts of the Turkish manuscripts should be edited professionally before submission.  Apart from its content, some of the manuscripts which are poor in language usage are returned/ rejected.12. Communication regarding manuscript submission and evaluation procedure is done via e-mail.13. For information regarding citations and reference format, please see References section.

Author Guidelines

Although references to review articles can be an efficient way to guide readers to a body of literature, review articles do not always reflect original work accurately. Readers should therefore be provided with direct references to original research sources whenever possible. On the other hand, extensive lists of references to original work on a topic can use excessive space on the printed page. Small numbers of references to key original papers often serve as well as more exhaustive lists, particularly since references can now be added to the electronic version of published papers, and since electronic literature searching allows readers to retrieve published literature efficiently. Papers accepted but not yet included in the issue are published online in the Early View section and they should be cited as “advance online publication”. Citing a “personal communication” should be avoided unless it provides essential information not available from a public source, in which case the name of the person and date of communication should be cited in parentheses in the text. For scientific articles, written permission and confirmation of accuracy from the source of a personal communication must be obtained. Accuracy of citation is the author’s responsibility. All references should be cited in text. Reference list must be in alphabetical order.Reference Style and FormatJournal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi complies with APA (American Psychological Association)  style 6th Edition for referencing and quoting. For more information:- American Psychological Association. (2010). Publication manual of the American PsychologicalAssociation (6th ed.). Washington, DC: APA.- <a href="http://www.apastyle.org" target="_blank">http://www.apastyle.org</a>Accuracy of citation is the author’s responsibility. All references should be cited in text. Reference list must be in alphabetical order. Type references in the style shown below.Citations in the TextCitations must be indicated with the author surname and publication year within the parenthesis. If more than one citation is made within the same paranthesis, separate them with (;).Samples:More than one citation;(Esin et al., 2002; Karasar, 1995)Citation with one author;(Akyolcu, 2007)Citation with two authors;(Sayıner &amp; Demirci, 2007)Citation with three, four, five authors;First citation in the text: (Ailen, Ciambrune, &amp; Welch, 2000) Subsequent citations in the text: (Ailen et al., 2000)Citations with more than six authors;(Çavdar et al., 2003)Citations in the ReferenceAll the citations done in the text should be listed in the References section in alphabetical order of author surname without numbering. Below given examples should be considered in citing the references.Basic Reference TypesBooka) Turkish BookKarasar, N. (1995). Araştırmalarda rapor hazırlama (8th ed.) [Preparing research reports]. Ankara, Turkey: 3A Eğitim Danışmanlık Ltd.b) Book Translated into TurkishMucchielli, A. (1991). Zihniyetler [Mindsets] (A. Kotil, Trans.). İstanbul, Turkey: İletişim Yayınları.c) Edited BookÖren, T., Üney, T., &amp; Çölkesen, R. (Eds.). (2006). Türkiye bilişim ansiklopedisi [Turkish Encyclopedia of Informatics]. İstanbul, Turkey: Papatya Yayıncılık.d) Turkish Book with Multiple AuthorsTonta, Y., Bitirim, Y., &amp; Sever, H. (2002). Türkçe arama motorlarında performans değerlendirme [Performance evaluation in Turkish search engines]. Ankara, Turkey: Total Bilişim.e) Book in EnglishKamien R., &amp; Kamien A. (2014). Music: An appreciation. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Education.f) Chapter in an Edited BookBassett, C. (2006). Cultural studies and new media. In G. Hall &amp; C. Birchall (Eds.), New cultural studies: Adventures in theory (pp. 220–237). Edinburgh, UK: Edinburgh University Press.g) Chapter in an Edited Book in TurkishErkmen, T. (2012). Örgüt kültürü: Fonksiyonları, öğeleri, işletme yönetimi ve liderlikteki önemi [Organization culture: Its functions, elements and importance in leadership and business management]. In M. Zencirkıran (Ed.), Örgüt sosyolojisi [Organization sociology] (pp. 233–263). Bursa, Turkey: Dora Basım Yayın.h) Book with the same organization as author and publisherAmerican Psychological Association. (2009). Publication manual of the American psychological association (6th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.Articlea) Turkish ArticleMutlu, B., &amp; Savaşer, S. (2007). Çocuğu ameliyat sonrası yoğun bakımda olan ebeveynlerde stres nedenleri ve azaltma girişimleri [Source and intervention reduction of stress for parents whose children are in intensive care unit after surgery]. Istanbul University Florence Nightingale Journal of Nursing, 15(60), 179–182.b) English Articlede Cillia, R., Reisigl, M., &amp; Wodak, R. (1999). The discursive construction of national identity. Discourse and Society, 10(2), 149–173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0957926599010002002c) Journal Article with DOI and More Than Seven AuthorsLal, H., Cunningham, A. L., Godeaux, O., Chlibek, R., Diez-Domingo, J., Hwang, S.-J. ... Heineman, T. C. (2015). Efficacy of an adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine in older adults. New England Journal of Medicine, 372, 2087–2096. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1501184d) Journal Article from Web, without DOISidani, S. (2003). Enhancing the evaluation of nursing care effectiveness. Canadian Journal of Nursing Research, 35(3), 26–38. Retrieved from http://cjnr.mcgill.cae) Journal Article wih DOITurner, S. J. (2010). Website statistics 2.0: Using Google Analytics to measure library website effectiveness. Technical Services Quarterly, 27, 261–278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07317131003765910f) Advance Online PublicationSmith, J. A. (2010). Citing advance online publication: A review. Journal of Psychology. Advance online publication. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a45d7867g) Article in a MagazineHenry, W. A., III. (1990, April 9). Making the grade in today’s schools. Time, 135, 28–31.Doctoral Dissertation, Master’s Thesis, Presentation, Proceedinga) Dissertation/Thesis from a Commercial DatabaseVan Brunt, D. (1997). Networked consumer health information systems (Doctoral dissertation). Available from ProQuest Dissertations and Theses database. (UMI No. 9943436)b) Dissertation/Thesis from an Institutional DatabaseYaylalı-Yıldız, B. (2014). University campuses as places of potential publicness: Exploring the politicals, social and cultural practices in Ege University (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from http://library.iyte.edu.tr/tr/hizli-erisim/iyte-tez-portalic) Dissertation/Thesis from WebTonta, Y. A. (1992). An analysis of search failures in online library catalogs (Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Berkeley). Retrieved from http://yunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~tonta/yayinlar /phd/ickapak.htmld) Dissertation/Thesis abstracted in Dissertations Abstracts InternationalAppelbaum, L. G. (2005). Three studies of human information processing: Texture amplifica&#173;tion, motion representation, and figure-ground segregation. Dissertation Abstracts International: Section B. Sciences and Engineering, 65(10), 5428.e) Symposium ContributionKrinsky-McHale, S. J., Zigman, W. B., &amp; Silverman, W. (2012, August). Are neuropsychiatric symptoms markers of prodromal Alzheimer’s disease in adults with Down syndrome? In W. B. Zigman (Chair), Predictors of mild cognitive impairment, dementia, and mortality in adults with Down syndrome. Symposium conducted at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Orlando, FL.f) Conference Paper Abstract Retrieved OnlineLiu, S. (2005, May). Defending against business crises with the help of intelligent agent based early warning solutions. Paper presented at the Seventh International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems, Miami, FL. Abstract retrieved from http://www.iceis.org/iceis2005/abstracts_2005.htmg) Conference Paper - In Regularly Published Proceedings and Retrieved OnlineHerculano-Houzel, S., Collins, C. E., Wong, P., Kaas, J. H., &amp; Lent, R. (2008). The basic nonuniformity of the cerebral cortex. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 12593–12598. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805417105h) Proceeding in Book FormParsons, O. A., Pryzwansky, W. B., Weinstein, D. J., &amp; Wiens, A. N. (1995). Taxonomy for psychology. In J. N. Reich, H. Sands, &amp; A. N. Wiens (Eds.), Education and training beyond the doctoral degree: Proceedings of the American Psychological Association National Conference on Postdoctoral Education and Training in Psychology (pp. 45–50). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.i) Paper PresentationNguyen, C. A. (2012, August). Humor and deception in advertising: When laughter may not be the best medicine. Paper presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Orlando, FL.Other Sourcesa) Newspaper ArticleBrowne, R. (2010, March 21). This brainless patient is no dummy. Sydney Morning Herald, 45.b) Newspaper Article with no AuthorNew drug appears to sharply cut risk of death from heart failure. (1993, July 15). The Washington Post, p. A12.c) Web Page/Blog PostBordwell, D. (2013, June 18). David Koepp: Making the world movie-sized [Web log post]. Retrieved from http://www.davidbordwell.net/blog/page/27/d) Online Encyclopedia/DictionaryIgnition. (1989). In Oxford English online dictionary (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://dictionary.oed. comMarcoux, A. (2008). Business ethics. In E. N. Zalta (Ed.). The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. Retrieved from http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ethics-business/e) PodcastDunning, B. (Producer). (2011, January 12). inFact: Conspiracy theories [Video podcast]. Retrieved from http://itunes.apple.com/f) Single Episode in a Television SeriesEgan, D. (Writer), &amp; Alexander, J. (Director). (2005). Failure to communicate. [Television series episode]. In D. Shore (Executive producer), House; New York, NY: Fox Broadcasting.g) MusicFuchs, G. (2004). Light the menorah. On Eight nights of Hanukkah [CD]. Brick, NJ: Kid Kosher.

<a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a><a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/FileHandler2.ashx?f=titlepagetemplate_jepr.docx" target="_blank">Title page</a><a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/8BFBB25D979E48EABE10B7FB4A99D013" target="_blank">Author Form</a><ul></ul>

Ensure that the following items are present:● Cover letter<ul><li>The category of the manuscript</li><li>CV(s) of the author(s)</li><li>Confirming that “the paper is not under consideration for publication in another journal”. </li><li>Including disclosure of any commercial or financial involvement.</li><li>Confirming that the statistical design of the research article is reviewed.</li><li>Confirming that last control for fluent English was done.</li><li>Confirming that journal policies detailed in Information for Authors have been reviewed.</li><li>Confirming that the references cited in the text and listed in the references section are in line with APA 6.</li></ul>● <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>● Permission of previous published material if used in the present manuscript● <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/FileHandler2.ashx?f=titlepagetemplate_jepr.docx" target="_blank">Title page</a><ul><li>The category of the manuscript</li><li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li><li>All authors’ names and affiliations (institution, faculty/department, city, country), e-mail addresses</li><li>Corresponding author’s email address, full postal address, telephone and fax number</li><li>ORCIDs of all authors.</li></ul>● Main Manuscript Document<ul><li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li><li>Abstracts (200-250 words) both in Turkish and in English</li><li>Key words: 5 words both in Turkish and in English</li><li>JEL code: 3 JEL codes</li><li>Extended Abstract (600-800 words) in English (if the article is in Turkish)</li><li>Main article sections</li><li>Grant support (if exists)</li><li>Conflict of interest (if exists)</li><li>Acknowledgement (if exists)</li><li>References</li><li>All tables, illustrations (figures) (including title, description, footnotes)</li></ul>

Issue Type	Regular
Editor(s)	Ahmet İncekara, Halil Tunalı
Cover (PDF)
Front Pages (PDF)

Journal of Economic Policy Researches

VOLUME 9, ISSUE 2, 2022

Can Google Search Data Improve the Unemployment Rate Forecasting Model? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Is China Growing Dirty? A Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks

The Dynamics Affecting the Export-Import Ratio in Turkey: A Hybrid Model Proposal with Econometrics and Machine Learning Approach

Public Expenditures, Economic Growth and Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States

Testing the Weak-Form Market Efficiency for the Islamic Market Indices: Evidence from Fourier Wavelet ADF Unit Root Test

The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Globalization, and Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis for Selected Emerging Market Economies

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Happiness and Socioeconomic Conditions: Differences Across Countries and Individuals' Personality Traits

Evaluation of the Economic Performances of the European Union Countries and Turkey in the Covid-19 Process with the COPRAS Method

Credit Scoring on Cash Flow Table with Machine Learning: XGBoost Approach

Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in EU Countries

Stock Market Price Forecasting Using the Arima Model: an Application to Istanbul, Turkiye

Examining the Relationship Between National Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Indices: An Empirical Analysis for Selected European Countries

Examining Individuals’ Attitudes Toward Electronic Money in the Framework of the Technology Acceptance Model

Do Interest-Free Financial Organizations Offer Fair Prices to Their Customers?

The Effect of Loan Portfolio Concentration Level on Financial Stability and Performance: A Comparatıve Analysis in Dual Banking System

Trade Liberalization and Environmental Pollution in Iran

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