Journal of Data Applications

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DOI :10.26650/JODA.1450459   IUP :10.26650/JODA.1450459    Full Text (PDF)

Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet

Ali Kerem Güler, Ali Musa, Mustafa Tarım, Osman Saraç, Mehmet Göktürk

This article focuses on forecasting sales for restaurant businesses using the Prophet model developed by Facebook. A method is proposed to make more accurate forecasts by accounting for the effects external factors have on sales, including weather conditions and special days. The analyses conducted on the real-time sales data of the daily operations of a restaurant business (provided by PROTEL Inc.) reveal that the Prophet model can forecast the sales of different products based on daily sales and weather data. The prediction performance of the model was evaluated using four error metrics: Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Squared Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The results revealed that the model produced more consistent and accurate predictions for some product categories. This study, which aims to contribute to the literature through an optimization of operational efficiency and decision-making processes related to the restaurant industry, highlights the importance of external factors in sales forecasting in the restaurant industry and provides a detailed analysis of incorporating these factors into the forecasting process. The findings may support restaurant businesses in obtaining more accurate sales forecasts by taking external factors into account. In particular, understanding the effects of weather changes and special days on sales can contribute significantly to operational decisions in such areas as personnel planning and inventory management. In this regard, the article proposes innovative approaches to the challenges faced by restaurant operations, presenting different approaches found in the literature and a detailed model evaluation process.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Time Series Forecasting, Facebook Prophet

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APA

Güler, A.K., Musa, A., Tarım, M., Saraç, O., & Göktürk, M. (2024). Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet. Journal of Data Applications, 0(2), 15-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459


AMA

Güler A K, Musa A, Tarım M, Saraç O, Göktürk M. Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet. Journal of Data Applications. 2024;0(2):15-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459


ABNT

Güler, A.K.; Musa, A.; Tarım, M.; Saraç, O.; Göktürk, M. Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet. Journal of Data Applications, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 2, p. 15-30, 2024.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Güler, Ali Kerem, and Ali Musa and Mustafa Tarım and Osman Saraç and Mehmet Göktürk. 2024. “Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet.” Journal of Data Applications 0, no. 2: 15-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459


Chicago: Humanities Style

Güler, Ali Kerem, and Ali Musa and Mustafa Tarım and Osman Saraç and Mehmet Göktürk. “Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet.” Journal of Data Applications 0, no. 2 (Dec. 2024): 15-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459


Harvard: Australian Style

Güler, AK & Musa, A & Tarım, M & Saraç, O & Göktürk, M 2024, 'Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet', Journal of Data Applications, vol. 0, no. 2, pp. 15-30, viewed 4 Dec. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Güler, A.K. and Musa, A. and Tarım, M. and Saraç, O. and Göktürk, M. (2024) ‘Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet’, Journal of Data Applications, 0(2), pp. 15-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459 (4 Dec. 2024).


MLA

Güler, Ali Kerem, and Ali Musa and Mustafa Tarım and Osman Saraç and Mehmet Göktürk. “Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet.” Journal of Data Applications, vol. 0, no. 2, 2024, pp. 15-30. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459


Vancouver

Güler AK, Musa A, Tarım M, Saraç O, Göktürk M. Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet. Journal of Data Applications [Internet]. 4 Dec. 2024 [cited 4 Dec. 2024];0(2):15-30. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459 doi: 10.26650/JODA.1450459


ISNAD

Güler, AliKerem - Musa, Ali - Tarım, Mustafa - Saraç, Osman - Göktürk, Mehmet. “Forecasting Restaurant Sales with the Sensitivity of Weather Conditions and Special Days Using Facebook Prophet”. Journal of Data Applications 0/2 (Dec. 2024): 15-30. https://doi.org/10.26650/JODA.1450459



TIMELINE


Submitted11.03.2024
Accepted03.04.2024
Published Online24.06.2024

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