Research Article


DOI :10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055   IUP :10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055    Full Text (PDF)

Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz

Gökhan DemirtaşŞule Yüksel Çakırca

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de uluslararası göçün dış ticaret üzerine etkisini incelemektir. Çalışma, 2013-2016 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin göç aldığı 125 ülke ile dış ticareti üzerine odaklanmaktadır. Bu amaçla panel veri yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin edilen modeller, OECD üyesi ülkeler ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler olmak üzere iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Modellerde yer alan değişkenler, genişletilmiş çekim modeline göre belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın iki temel sonucu bulunmaktadır. İlk olarak hem OECD ülkeleri hem de gelişmekte olan ülkeler için oluşturulan modellerde uluslararası göçün ihracat, ithalat ve dış ticaret üzerine etkisi pozitiftir. İkinci olarak Türkiye’de uluslararası göçün ithalat üzerindeki pozitif etkisi, ihracat üzerindeki etkisinden daha büyüktür. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de tercih etkisinin ağ etkisinden daha baskın olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca Türkiye’ye daha nitelikli iş gücüne sahip göçmenlerin gelmesini özendirecek politikalara ihtiyaç vardır. 

DOI :10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055   IUP :10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055    Full Text (PDF)

The Effect of International Migration on Foreign Trade: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Gökhan DemirtaşŞule Yüksel Çakırca

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of international migration on foreign trade in Turkey. The study focuses on the trade of Turkey with 125 countries during the period from 2013 to 2016. For this purpose, the models estimated by using panel data method are divided into two groups: OECD member countries and developing countries. The variables in the models are determined by the augmented gravity model. There are two main results of the study. First, the effects of international migration on exports, imports and foreign trade are positive in the models for both OECD countries and developing countries. Second, the positive impact of international migration on imports is greater than the impact on exports in Turkey. This result indicates that the preference effect is more dominant than the network effect in Turkey. There is also a need for policies to encourage more qualified immigrants to come to Turkey. 


EXTENDED ABSTRACT


The impact of international migration on foreign trade manifests itself through two channels: preference and network effects. The continuation of the consumption habits of the immigrant in his/her country of origin also leads to a demand for the goods of the immigrated country in the host country. Besides, immigrants can lead to changes in the consumption patterns of the citizens in the host country where they live. Considering all these effects, the increase in the demand for the goods of the home countries will increase the imports in the host country. This is called the preference effect. There is a network system that connects individuals in the home country and the host country. Social and economic relations between individuals are maintained through some formal or informal groups. These connections contribute to the increase in the relationship between the two countries. Immigrants help business activities to increase by establishing business contacts with individuals in the host country. Another important effect is that they accelerate the flow of information between the host and home countries by sharing the information they have with their host country. Increased knowledge leads to a reduction in transaction costs in trade. These effects are called network effects. The preference effect increases the imports of the host country, while the network effect increases both exports and imports.

This study aims to examine the impact of international migration on foreign trade. For this purpose, panel data analysis is used in the study. The analysis includes the foreign trade data that Turkey made with 125 countries from which Turkey received immigrants between 2013 and 2016. The sample of the study is divided into two groups including 33 industrialized OECD and 92 developing countries. This distinction constitutes a homogeneous sample because it includes the countries that are more similar to each other. The random effect model is preferred because the number of units in the sample is greater than the time period, the sample does not include all possible countries, and the use of a variable that does not change over time such as distance. The variables used in the analysis are determined according to the augmented gravity model. In the models, foreign trade variables include exports, imports and the sum of the two are used as dependent variables, while income level, distance, population and nominal exchange rate variables as well as migration variable are considered as explanatory variables. Taking Turkey as a home country, some studies examined the impact of international migration on trade. These studies have been carried out on migration from Turkey to Western countries. To the best of our knowledge, there is no empirical study taking Turkey as the host country in the relevant literature.

As the distance variable representing the distance between Turkey and other countries does not change in years in the panel gravity model, it has a dummy structure. Therefore, the distance variable cannot be used in the fixed effects model based on many dummy variables by their nature. In addition, the countries included in the sample consist of a random selection as their data are available. For these reasons, all of the models in the study are estimated using the random-effects model. The Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) estimator is used to make a prediction free of problems such as crosssectional dependence, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the estimated linear regression models based on panel data method.

According to the main result of the study, the impact of international migrants coming to Turkey between 2013 and 2016 contributed positively to Turkey’s trade. This result is valid for Turkey’s trade both with OECD countries and with developing countries. Also, international migration has a positive impact on Turkey’s exports and imports in both groups of countries. The main result of the study is in accord with the expectations. This result shows that international migrants contribute to the welfare of the communities they live in. In other words, foreign trade has an important social benefit for the acceptability of international migration. This is because, the positive effect of international migration on foreign trade in a country is known by the citizens in that country, which may favorably change the perspective towards migrants or reduce negative attitudes towards immigrants in host countries 

When the empirical results are examined in detail in terms of variables representing foreign trade, another significant result emerges. Accordingly, the impact of international migrants on import is larger than export in Turkey. This is valid for both OECD countries and developing countries. This result shows that the preference effect emerges predominantly. It is possible to say that migrants in Turkey meet a part of the demand for final goods through imports. For this purpose, new empirical studies on the determinants of intra-industry trade are needed in future studies. The impact of international migration on import is larger than export meaning that migrants residing in Turkey lack high-quality human capital.


PDF View

References

  • Antonucci, D., & Manzocchi, S. (2005). Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU? A gravity model approach, Luiss lab on European Economics, LLEE Working Document, No. 35. google scholar
  • Arellano, M. (2003). Panel data Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press. google scholar
  • Asteriou, D., & Hall, S.G. (2007). Applied Econometrics: a modern approach (revised edition). New York: Palgrave Macmillan. google scholar
  • Bacarreza, G. J. C., & Ehrlich, L. (2006). The ımpact of migration on foreign trade: A developing country approach. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No:1090. google scholar
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (Third Edition). West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons. Batra, A. (2004). India’s global trade potential: The gravity model approach. ICRIER Working Paper, No. 151. google scholar
  • Breusch, T., & Pagan, A. (1980), The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. Doi: 10.2307/2297111 google scholar
  • Bruder, J. (2004). Are trade and migration substitutes or complements? The case of Germany, 1970-1998. Working Paper, University of Rostock, Germany. google scholar
  • Burger, M. J., Oort, F. G., & Linders, J. M. (2009). On the specification of the gravity model of trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-Inflated estimation. Erasmus Research Institute of Management, No: 003. google scholar
  • Buzdağlı, Ö. ve Kızıltan, A. (2011). Göç-ticaret ilişkisi: Türkiye’nin Tüketim malı ihracatı üzerine bir uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25(3-4), 65-75. google scholar
  • Çelebi Boz, F. ve Durmaz, A. (2016). Göçmenlerin uluslararası ticaret üzerine etkisi: Mena Bölgesi’ndeki Türk göçmenler üzerine bir uygulama. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 17, 259-272. google scholar
  • Domingo, G. S., & Silvente, F. R. (2013). Re-examining the migration–trade link using province data: An application of the generalized propensity score, Economic Modelling, 32, 247-261. Doi: 10.1016/j. econmod.2013.02.002 google scholar
  • Dunlevy, J. A., & Hutchinson, W. K. (1999). The ımpact of ımmigration on American ımport trade in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The Journal of Economic History, 59(4), 1043-1062. google scholar
  • Ebmer, R. W. ve Zimmermann, K. F. (1998). East-West trade and migration: The Austro-German case. IZA Discussion Paper, No:2. google scholar
  • Emirhan, P. N. (2014). Uluslararası emek göçü ve dış ticaret arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için bir uygulama, Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 14(4), 611-620. google scholar
  • Erlat, H. (2018). Panel Data: A Selective Survey, Ankara: Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University. google scholar
  • Faustino, H. C., & Leitao, N. C. (2008). Immigration and trade in Portugal: A static and dynamic panel data analysis. Technical University of Lisbon, Working Paper, WP 31/2008/DE/Socius.12/2008/DE/Socius. google scholar
  • Felbermayr, G. J., & Toubal, F. (2012). Revisiting the trade-migration nexus: Evidence from new OECD data. World Development, 40(5), 928-937. Doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.11.016 google scholar
  • Genç, M., Gheasi, M., Nijkamp, P., & Poot, J. (2011). The impact of immigration on international trade: a metaanalysis. IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor) Discussion Paper, No. 6145. google scholar
  • Ghatak, S., Silaghi, M. I. P., & Daly, V. (2009). Trade and migration flows between some CEE countries and the UK. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 18(1), 61-78. Doi: 10.1080/09638190902757426 google scholar
  • Girma, S., & Yu, Z. (2000). Immigration and trade creation: What can the evidence from Britain tell us? Preperad for the Murphy Institute Conference on The Political Economy of Migration, Tulane University, New Orleans, USA. google scholar
  • Girma, S., & Yu, Z. (2002). The Link between immigration and trade: Evidence from the United Kingdom. Weltwirtschaftliches, 138(1), 115-130. google scholar
  • Golovko, A. (2014). Avrasya Ülkelerinin Dış Ticaretlerinin Çekim Modeli Çerçevesinde Analizi. (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Ankara Üniversitesi, Ankara. google scholar
  • Greene, W. H. (2012). Econometric analysis (7th Edition). New Jersey: Prentice-Hall International Inc. Hausman, J. (1978). Specification tests in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251-1271. google scholar
  • Head, K., & Ries, J. (1998). Immigration and trade creation: Econometric evidence from Canada. The Canadian Jaurnal of Economics, 31(1), 47-62. google scholar
  • Iranzo, S., & Peri, G. (2009). Migration and trade: Theory with an application to the Eastern-Western European integration. Journal of International Economics, 79, 1-19. google scholar
  • Kandemir, O. (2010). İktisadi Büyüme Sürecinde Göç Olgusu: Türkiye Örneği. (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Sakarya Üniversitesi, Sakarya. Karagöz, K. (2011). Göç-ticaret ilişkisi: Panel çekim modeli. Sosyoekonomi Dergisi, 15(15), 55-68. google scholar
  • Kennedy, P. (2005). Ekonometri kılavuzu (Beşinci Baskı), (M. Sarımeşelive Ş. Açıkgöz, Çev.), Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi. google scholar
  • Levine, R., & Schmukler, S. L. (2007). Migration, spillovers, and trade diversion: The impact of internationalization on domestic stock market activity. Journal of Banking &Finance, 31, 1595-1612. Doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.11.001 google scholar
  • Lewer, J., & Berg, H. V. (2008). A gravity model of ımmigration. Economics Letters, 99(1), 164-167. Doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2007.06.019 google scholar
  • Lin, X., & Yang, X. (2017). From human capital externality to entrepreneurial aspiration: Revisiting the migration-trade linkage. Journal of World Business, 52, 360-371. Doi: 10.1016/j.jwb.2016.11.001 google scholar
  • Linnemann, H. (1966). An econometric study of ınternational trade flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company. google scholar
  • Lung, S. M. (2008). The Impact of International Migration on International Trade: An Empirical Study of Australian Migrant Intake from Asian Countries. (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia. google scholar
  • Massey, D. S. (1988). Economic devolopment and ınternational migration in comparative perspective. Population and Development Review, 14(3), 383-413. google scholar
  • Ortega, F., & Peri, G. (2014). Openness and income: The roles of trade and migration, Journal of International Economics, 92, 231-251. Doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.11.008 google scholar
  • Paas, T. (2002). European Integration and EU Eastward enlargement process in ınternational trade: Using a gravity approach for exploring bilateral trade flows. The 42nd Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Dortmund, Germany. google scholar
  • Paas, T. (2003). Regional Integration and International Trade in the Context of EU Eastward Enlargement, HWWA Discussion Paper, No: 218. google scholar
  • Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90, 93-100. google scholar
  • Sgrignoli, P., Metulini, R., Schiavo, S., & Riccaboni, M. (2015). The relation between global migration and trade networks. Physia A, 417, 245-260. google scholar
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping The World Economy: Suggestion for an International Economic Policy, New York: A Twentieth Century Fund Study. google scholar
  • White, R. (2008). Exploring a US ımmigrant-ıntra-ındustry trade link. Eastern Economic Journal, 34, 252-262. google scholar
  • White, R. (2009). Immigration, tradeand product differentiation. Economic Issues, 14(1), 43-63. google scholar
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge: MIT Press. google scholar

Citations

Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the options to export in your chosen format


EXPORT



APA

Demirtaş, G., & Yüksel Çakırca, Ş. (2019). Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 28(2), 141-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055


AMA

Demirtaş G, Yüksel Çakırca Ş. Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences. 2019;28(2):141-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055


ABNT

Demirtaş, G.; Yüksel Çakırca, Ş. Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, [Publisher Location], v. 28, n. 2, p. 141-163, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Demirtaş, Gökhan, and Şule Yüksel Çakırca. 2019. “Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 28, no. 2: 141-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055


Chicago: Humanities Style

Demirtaş, Gökhan, and Şule Yüksel Çakırca. Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 28, no. 2 (Dec. 2021): 141-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055


Harvard: Australian Style

Demirtaş, G & Yüksel Çakırca, Ş 2019, 'Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz', Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 141-163, viewed 9 Dec. 2021, https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Demirtaş, G. and Yüksel Çakırca, Ş. (2019) ‘Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz’, Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 28(2), pp. 141-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055 (9 Dec. 2021).


MLA

Demirtaş, Gökhan, and Şule Yüksel Çakırca. Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, vol. 28, no. 2, 2019, pp. 141-163. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055


Vancouver

Demirtaş G, Yüksel Çakırca Ş. Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences [Internet]. 9 Dec. 2021 [cited 9 Dec. 2021];28(2):141-163. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055 doi: 10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055


ISNAD

Demirtaş, Gökhan - Yüksel Çakırca, Şule. Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz”. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 28/2 (Dec. 2021): 141-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055



TIMELINE


Submitted20.12.2018
Accepted23.09.2019
Published Online11.10.2019

LICENCE


Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.


SHARE




Istanbul University Press aims to contribute to the dissemination of ever growing scientific knowledge through publication of high quality scientific journals and books in accordance with the international publishing standards and ethics. Istanbul University Press follows an open access, non-commercial, scholarly publishing.