1. İstanbul Uluslararası Coğrafya Kongresi Bildiri Kitabi
Spatial statistics analysis of forest fires in Antalya provinceKerime Karabacak, Rüya Bayar, Özlem Türkşen
In this study, it is aimed to examine the fires in the forests of Antalya province, which has Turkey’s highest forest area, and to establish and grade the forest fire risk zones by using spatial statistics analysis of GIS softwares (spatial descriptive statistics, spatial point pattern analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis). In accordance with this purpose; 321 forest fires in 2013 and 242 forest fires in 2018 fire data were transferred to the GIS software in which the characteristics such as the cause, location, time, type of fire were recorded. According to start point of the recorded forest fires locations, was used “Spatial Statistics Module” to examined descriptive statistics (measurement of the central tendency, measurement of distribution). Also spatial pattern analysis (quadrat analysis, nearest neighbor analysis) and spatial autocorrelation (global spatial autocorrelation, local spatial autocorrelation) methods were used to evaluate the fires data according to both location and characteristics. As a result of the quadrat analysis, a risk region was obtained. According to the results of spatial autocorrelation, the areas where temperature, relative humidity and wind speed showed the highest clustering also formed a separate risk zone. With the result of obtained by overlapping these two statistical risk areas was revealed areas of forest fire by locally risk in Antalya province. Accordingly, all forests of Antalya province are at risk of fire, but only 4% of them are at low risk, while 76% are at high risk for forest fires.