Ekonometride Güncel Yöntemler ve Uygulamalar

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DOI :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.14   IUP :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.14    Tam Metin (PDF)

Bölgesel Göç ve Konut Piyasaları: Türkiye Örneği

Havva Gültekin, Ayşegül İşcanoğlu Çekiç

Demografik değişikliklerin istihdam, kalkınma ve ekonomik büyüme gibi makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu genel kabul edilen bir olgudur. Demografik değişikliklerin ana nedenlerinden biri olarak göç hareketleri de bu bağlamda birçok iktisadi değişken üzerinde önemli değişimlere yol açmaktadır. Makroekonomik değişkenlerdeki değişimlerin göçü etkilediği, göçteki değişimin de, birçok değişkene ait fiyatları değiştirdiği varsayılmaktadır. Bu fiyat değişimlerinin en önemlilerinden biri de şüphesiz konut fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalar olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Hem yerel halkın bir ev bulma konusunda yaşadığı zorluklar, hem de göçmenlerin belirli bir bölgeye yerleşme zorunluluğu konut fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların nedenlerini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bağlamda, çalışmada Türkiye için bölgesel düzeyde göç ile konut piyasaları arasında nedensel bağlantılar kurulması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, göç ve konut piyasalarını karakterize eden değişkenlerden, ekonomik gelişme ve istihdam değişkenleri de çalışmaya dâhil edilmiştir. Literatürde göç ve diğer değişkenler arasındaki mevcut etkileşimleri ele almak için farklı yaklaşımlar kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada bu yaklaşımlardan panel nedensellik analizini kullanacağız. Çalışmada, Türkiye İstatistiksel Bölge Birimleri Sınıflaması Düzey2 (İBBS-Düzey2) tarafından kapsanan 26 bölgeye ait net göç hızı, konut fiyat endeksi, kişi başı gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla büyüme oranı ve istihdam oranı verileri, 2010-2017 dönemi için dikkate alınmış ve analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir.


Anahtar Kelimeler: Panel Nedensellik, Panel VAR, Göç, Konut Fiyat Endeksi, İstihdam, Ekonomik Büyüme
DOI :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.14   IUP :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.14    Tam Metin (PDF)

Regional Migration and Housing Markets: The Case of Turkey

Havva Gültekin, Ayşegül İşcanoğlu Çekiç

It is generally accepted that demographic changes significantly affect macroeconomic variables, such as employment, development, and economic growth. Migration, which is one main source of demographic change, has many social and economic consequences, such as its effect on housing markets. Methodologically, this study is closely related to the literature examining the causal impact of migrations on housing prices. With this motivation, the Turkish Statistical Classification of Territorial Units (IBBS- Level 2), which divides Turkey into 26 separate regions, is considered. In this study, the net migration rate, the housing price index, employment rate, and economic growth rate are considered as variables; the causality relationships among these variables are analyzed using the panel Vector Autoregressive Models (henceforth, panel VAR). The study covers the period from 2010 to 2017, and the variables are considered in annual frequency.

The contributions of this study can be listed as follows: first, it contributes to the existing literature by examining the relationship between housing prices and migration as well as the relationship between the employment rate and economic growth. This provides a more comprehensive picture of how the housing market responds to immigration shocks. Second, our data allow annual measurements of changes in the housing market and regional immigrant concentration. Therefore, the study involves both immigration and emigration from a certain region. Finally, in Turkey, studies on the interactions between the housing market and regional migration are very limited. Hence, the study fills a gap in the literature.

In the study, two separate analyses were performed. The first analysis dealt only with the interactions between the net migration rate and housing price index. The second analysis dealt with the relationships between the housing price index and all the other variables, i.e., the net migration rate, employment rate, and economic growth. The panel VAR model was estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moments, with one lag.

Considering the estimated two-variable model, it is observed that the effect of the net migration rate on house prices is not statistically significant. However, changes in the housing price index or the migration rate have negative and significant effects (5% significance level) on future migration rates. This implies that the increasing housing prices result in a decreasing migration rate.

On the other hand, according to the results of the four variable panel VAR model, the net migration and employment rate variables have a positive and significant effect (1% significance level) on house prices. This finding is consistent with the literature. Accordingly,it is expected that in the short term, housing prices will increase following an increase in the migration or employment rate. Furthermore, economic growth does not have any effect on housing prices. In addition, an increase in housing prices is followed by another short-term increase in housing prices.

Hence, it is concluded that the regional housing price index significantly affects the immigration rate. A region might become more attractive for migrants because of lower house prices; contrarily, higher housing prices can prevent immigrant flows to the region. On the other hand, high immigration flows to a region will cause an increase in housing prices.


Anahtar Kelimeler: Panel Causality, Panel VAR, Immigration, Housing Price Index, Employment, Economic Growth

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