Ekonometride Güncel Yöntemler ve Uygulamalar
Küreselleşme ve Gelir İlişkisine Farklı Bir Bakış: Parametrik ve Semiparametrik YaklaşımSelahattin Güriş, Ebru Çağlayan Akay, Şaban Kızılarslan
Bu çalışmada küreselleşme ile milli gelir ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Literatürde bu ilişki çoğunlukla doğrusal olarak ele alınmakla birlikte, doğrusal olmayan bir ilişki yapısının olduğu sonucuna ulaşan çalışmalar da mevcuttur. Ayrıca küreselleşme çoğunlukla genel şekliyle ele alınmıştır, daha az çalışmada ise küreselleşmenin alt bileşenleri için farklı sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, küreselleşme – gelir ilişkisinin gerçek fonksiyonel yapısının belirlenmesidir. Bu amaçla, küreselleşme hem genel boyutuyla, hem de alt boyutlarıyla ele alınmıştır. Analiz için parametrik ve semiparametrik modeller birlikte kullanılmış ve model sonuçları karşılaştırılarak uygun fonksiyonel şekiller belirlenmiştir. Analizler 118 ülkenin yatay kesit verileri kullanılarak, 2008 ve 2016 olmak üzere iki farklı yıl verileriyle gerçekleştirilmiştir. Sonuçta küreselleşme – gelir ilişkisinin fonksiyonel şeklinin doğrusal olmadığı ve bu doğrusal olmamanın alt bileşenlerin gelirle ilişkilerinin fonksiyonel şeklinden kaynaklandığı belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca ele alınan ilk yılda küresel kriz etkisi var olmasına rağmen, her iki yıl için de belirlenen fonksiyonel şekillerin aynı olması, elde edilen ilişki yapılarının zamana göre kararlı olduğunu göstermiştir.
A Different View of the Relationship of Globalization and Income Using a Parametric and Semiparametric ApproachSelahattin Güriş, Ebru Çağlayan Akay, Şaban Kızılarslan
The concept of globalization has developed and gained popularity since the early 2000s. Globalization refers to the abolition of economic, social, cultural, and political boundaries between countries and societies. International relations have a long history. Since ancient times, both commercial and cultural exchanges have led societies to connect. However, recent technological and industrial developments have contributed significantly to the strengthening of such ties, as rapidly developing information, communication, and transportation sectors brought countries closer together, exponentially accelerating the dynamics of globalization. Commercial liberalization movements have also had an influence on globalization. Organizations such as Economic Development and Cooperation Organization (OECD), the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank (WB), which were established in parallel with these liberalization movements, contributed to the growth and strengthening of economic relations between countries and positively affected the development of globalization.
Rising global interaction has started to affect the economic, social, and political structures of many countries, making the examination of the positive and negative effects of globalization an important issue. In particular, it is critical to determine how economic growth and changes in countries’ national income are affected by globalization. This will make it possible for countries seeking to benefit from the positive results of globalization to develop and implement appropriate policies. The relationship between globalization and national income, which has been frequently studied in the recent past, is generally assumed to be linear. In contrast, there are also studies that conclude this relationship is not linear. The three main components of globalization are economic, social, and political dimensions, as well as subcomponents of each of these. In previous studies examining the relationship between globalization and income, the number of studies considering the subcomponents is quite small.
The main purpose of this study is to determine the functional form of globalization - income relationship accurately. For this purpose, cross-sectional data of 108 countries were analyzed. The KOF Globalization Index and its subcomponents, developed by Dreher (2006), were used to represent globalization. To determine the functional shape correctly, a parametric model and polynomial and fractional polynomial models were used. Semiparametric additive models that do not require any restriction on the structure of the relationship are also included in the analysis. The most suitable functional shape was determined by comparing the results of parametric and semiparametric models. Similar analyses were applied to the global index as well as the subcomponents of globalization. In addition, the subcomponents that are effective in determining the structure of general globalization with national income were revealed. Similar analyses were conducted for 2008 and 2016, also examining whether the relationship structures changed over time.
The first and most basic finding of the analyses is the determination that the relationship between globalization and national income is not linear, in terms of both general globalization and the subcomponents of globalization. When the general dimension is examined, it is indicated that the relationship between globalization and income can be determined via parametric models and the structure of the relationship is cubic–logarithmic.
However, the analyses of subcomponents found that the semiparametric approach obtained better results for determining the correct functional shape. This is due to the fact that the general index contains aggregated data and acts in accordance with a more general and parametric structure. However, the subcomponents contain more detailed information and are therefore more difficult to be examined in accordance with a general structure.
When the results of the subcomponents were examined, no statistically significant relationship was found between income and political globalization and between information globalization, which is a subcomponent of social globalization. Interpersonal and cultural globalization, the other two subcomponents of social globalization, appear to have a significant impact on income. In addition, trade and financial globalization, which are subcomponents of economic globalization, indicate a significant relationship with income. All of the subcomponents that showed a significant effect were not very effective at low levels of globalization, but exerted different effects at high levels of globalization. Of these, trade globalization has a highly negative impact, while other components have a positive impact. Social globalization reveals a softer impact than economic globalization. Based on these results, it can be asserted that the most effective component of income is economic globalization. The most effective components in determining the functional structure of general globalization and income relationship are financial and cultural globalization. Therefore, it would be beneficial for countries wishing to take advantage of globalization to pursue policies aimed primarily at increasing levels of financial and cultural globalization. In addition, although there was a global crisis effect in the first year, the fact that the functional patterns determined for both years were the same indicates that the relationship structures obtained remained stable over time.