Büyüme ve Emisyonlar Arasındaki Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği
Mehmet Mert, Hatice AykanBu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 1960-2018 dönemine ait verileri kullanarak, karbon emisyonu ve büyüme arasındaki asimetrik nedensellik ilişkilerini incelemektir. Büyüme ve emisyon arasındaki ilişkiler çoğunlukla Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezi yardımıyla sınanmaktadır. Ancak bu hipotezin testinde, modele eklenen her bir yeni değişkenin ve seçilen zaman periyodunun sonuçları değiştirdiği görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada emisyon ve büyüme ilişkisi Çevresel Kuznets hipoteziyle değil, değişkenlerin birikimli pozitif ve negatif şoklarıyla beraber asimetrik etkiler ele alınarak incelenmiştir. Bu amacı gerçekleştirirken asimetrik nedensellik testi ve saklı eşbütünleşme yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem asimetrik nedensellik ilişkileri saklı hata düzeltme model tahmin sonuçlarına dayanarak ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda kısa dönemde; büyümenin bileşenlerinden emisyonların bileşenlerine doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamazken, karbon emisyonunun negatif bileşenlerinden, ekonomik büyümenin negatif bileşenlerine doğru asimetrik bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Uzun dönemde ise, değişkenlerin pozitif bileşenleri ve karbon emisyonunun pozitif bileşeni ile ekonomik büyümenin negatif bileşeni arasında bir uzun dönem denge ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Büyümedeki daralmalar ve genişlemeler emisyonlardaki artışın uzun dönem asimetrik nedeni olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Ayrıca, büyümedeki pozitif ve negatif şoklar uzun dönem dinamikleri belirleyen kalıcı bileşenler olarak belirlenirken, emisyonlardaki pozitif şoklar ise uzun dönem dinamiklerini belirlemeyen geçici şoklar olarak belirlenmiştir. Sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve emisyon azaltım hedefi olan Türkiye için geliştirilecek çevresel politikalar açısından elde edilen sonuçların literatüre katkı sağlaması beklenmektedir.
Analysis of Asymmetric Causality Between Growth and Emissions in Turkey
Mehmet Mert, Hatice AykanThis study investigates the asymmetric causal relationship between emissions and growth over the period of 1960-2018 in Turkey. The Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis has mostly been used to test the relationship between growth and emissions. However, in testing this hypothesis, each variable added to the model and the period chosen changed the results. Thisstudy asymmetrically examinesthe relationship between emission and growth using the variable’ cumulative positive and negative shocks instead of applying the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. To do so, we use a short-run asymmetric causality test and a hidden co-integration for long run. The estimation results of the crouching error correction model revealed long-run asymmetric causal relationships. In the short run, although no causal relationship exists between the growth and emissions components, a unidirectional asymmetric causality was determined from the negative component of emissions to the negative component of growth. We found a long-run equilibrium relationship between the positive components of the variables and the positive emission component and the negative growth component. Thus, both contractions and expansions in growth increase emissions in the long run. The results are expected to contribute to the literature regarding environmental policies to be developed for Turkey, which has a sustainable development and emission reduction target.
The natural resource factor is one of the most important sources of economic growth. As the effects of environmental problems, particularly global warming, worsen, the environmental damage, the effects on future generations, and the methods used in production activities have begun to be discussed by countries attempting to meet their economic targets. The increase in mass production and urbanization has increased the energy required to sustain economic activity, which has been met by the use of fossil fuels. Such fossil fuel use increases the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere, with the energy sector being the most significant contributor. Because of the global nature of the problem, some steps have been taken to reduce emissions and prevent environmental pollution for sustainable development. In this context, international agreements to reduce emissions, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, have been signed, and environmental policies have been developed. The emergence of environmental problems has increased the interest of researchers in this field. Moreover, many studies have examined the relationship between environmental factors and economic growth and made policy recommendations for sustainable development. The environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis has been used to analyze the relationship between emissions and growth in the majority of the related literature. However, Gill et al. (2018) claimed that the results of EKC analysis were extremely sensitive to the period chosen and the model specification. When new variables are added to the model, the results of the EKC hypothesis may change, causing different turning points in the curve. Müller-Fürstenberger and Wagner (2007) and Aslanidis (2009) both criticized the EKC hypothesis. In light of the EKC hypothesis reviews, the present study analyzed the relationship between the variables from an asymmetric perspective using the variables’ cumulative positive and negative shocks.
The current study examined the short- and long-run asymmetric causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Turkey using annual data from 1960 to 2018. In this context, Hatemi-J (2012) examined short-run asymmetric causality between variables, whereas Granger and Yoon (2002) examined long-run asymmetric relationships using hidden cointegration. The result of the short-run analysis reveals that decreases in emissions reduce economic growth in the short run. Moreover, the positive developments in economic growth increase emissions in the long run. Furthermore, positive movements in economic growth leads to an increase in emissions in the long run. Another significant finding is that the negative growth development increases the increase in emissions in long run. Moreover, asymmetric causality exists from negative growth shocks to positive emissions shocks in the long run.
Meanwhile, examining crouching error correction estimation results, we determined that positive and negative shocks in economic growth are permanent components, whereas positive and negative shocks in emissions are transitory. In other words, positive or negative developments (positive or negative shocks) in growth affect both itself and emissions, thus determining long-run relationship dynamics between the variables. Meanwhile, positive or negative shocks in emissions affect only themselves and are impermanent in the long run.
Positive and/or negative developments in economic growth constantly increase emissions. Therefore, to ensure sustainable development and reduce emissions emitted into the atmosphere, stakeholders must increase the use of renewable energy resources, expand the use of clean technology, and pave the way for environmental policies to be developed.
