Para Arzının Konut Kredilerine Etkileri: Türkiye ÖrneğiLevent Çinko
Konut kredileri bankaların yıllarca bankaların müşterilerine sunduğu önemli enstrümanlardan bir tanesidir. Tabi ki para politikacılar bu tip kredileri her zaman için ekonomik bir müdahale şeklinde görmüşlerdir. Dolayısıyla da ülkede ne zaman genişleyici bir para politikası izlenmeye başlanacaksa konut kredileri vazgeçilemeyecek bir para politikası araçlarından bir tanesi olmuştur. Sonuçta emisyon hacminde artan bir genişleme olduğunda yani para arzının arttığı dönemlerde bu tip kredilerin varlığı ve cazibesi her zaman ekonomik anlayışın bir ürünü olmuştur. Bankalar piyasanın canlanabilmesi adına zaman zaman çok düşük faiz oranlarıyla vatandaşın konut sahibi olabilmesi için konut kredileri sunmuşlardır. Ama diğer taraftan ekonomik istikrarın olmadığı dönemlerde de yüksek oranlı konut kredileri vererek piyasanın bir anlamda konut kredilerinden uzak durmasını sağlamışlardır. Bu çalışma kapsamında seçilmiş parasal büyüklüklerin tanımları doğrultusunda, 2005-2019 yılları arasında oluşan para arzı ve konut kredileri arasındaki ilişki analiz edilerek Granger nedensellik testi kullanılacaktır. Bu kapsamda Granger nedensellik testi için ilk aşamada serilerin durağanlık mertebeleri belirlenecek ve seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi araştırılacaktır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilecektir.
The Effects of Housing Loans Money Supply: The Case of TurkeyLevent Çinko
Housing loans are one of the most important instruments that banks offer to customers. Of course, monetary politicians have always viewed these types of loans as an economic intervention. Therefore, whenever an expansionary monetary policy is to be followed in a country, housing loans have become an indispensable monetary policy tool. As a result, when there is an increasing expansion in monetary policy, the existence and attractiveness of such loans has always been a product of this economic understanding. Banks have offered mortgage loans from time to time with very low interest rates in order to stimulate the market. But, on the other hand, they have provided high rates of housing loans in periods when there was no economic stability, and in a sense, they have kept the market away from housing loans. Within the scope of this study, in line with the definitions of selected monetary aggregates, the Granger causality test will be used in analyzing the relationship between the money supply and housing loans from 2005 to 2019. In the first stage for the Granger causality test, the stationary levels of the series will be determined and the cointegration relationship between the series will be investigated. Causality analysis will be performed according to the findings obtained.
Housing is one of the leading sectors of the economy due to its forward and backward effect in both developed and developing countries. Housing expenditures, which are seen as a consumption good and sometimes as an investment good by households, have a significant share in total expenditures. According to the Turkey Statistical Institute data, the average household consumption expenditures in the last 15 years are divided into about 27% for housing and rental expenses, but these expenditures get the highest share for consumption in households. In recent years, the housing market has been in a growth trend in many countries, and housing prices are very volatile. The housing prices in Turkey have increased steadily since 2010, but even this increase was around 110% from 2010 to 2017.
The housing problem becomes clear when studying the interconnected past social and economic content, for example, the point of income inequality. Indeed, the evaluation of the housing problem as a public policy and its solution by the public may also represent an improvement towards the root of the problem, namely the income distribution injustice. That is to say, the housing deficit, which is defined as the lack of a sufficient number of houses to meet the housing needs of households, essentially increases the market value of houses that are worthy of human accommodation, that is, the increase in housing prices makes the purchasing power for households more difficult on a large scale; it imposes the option of either living in unqualified and inadequate housing or paying higher rent for quality housing. This points to the social and economic content of the problem, for example from the perspective of income distribution injustice, as well as the scale of the national economy and household budget.
However, in the stage reached today, limited access to residential housing in Turkey in recent years has showed a significant improvement in the total size of any non-resident households. Because, housing policies implemented so far have come to life as short-term practices rather than being a part of the long-term strategies emphasized above.
On one hand, the production and sales of houses exceed the annual need, and on the other, the ratio of households living in rented housing remains constant, which reveals that the problem is essentially a sharing problem. Likewise, briefly outlined in the current picture of housing production in Turkey, sheltering residential access not for the fact that the homeowners of limited or no households, shows that mainly of residential access with household preferences and willingness to pay and shaped according to capacity.
The gradual growth of the housing market and the increase in housing prices has caused an increase in the number of empirical studies conducted about this market. When the relevant literature was examined, the focus was on variables through which house prices were explained or whether there was a bubble in the market. In order to determine whether there was a bubble in the housing market, most studies attempted to determine what the housing price determinants were and how these determinants related to housing prices. Empirical studies conducted so far have shown that many factors such as income, money supply, bank credits, interest rates, construction costs, and demographic characteristics determine house prices. While most of the studies argued that there was a long-term relationship between house prices and the basic variables such as income and housing loan interest rate, some of them did not support this view.