Türkiye’de Kadın Hükümlü Oranlarının Mekânsal Ekonometrik AnaliziEren Kaya Çakmakçı, Yeliz Yalçın, Cengiz Arıkan
Son yıllarda artan kadın hükümlü oranları, kriminoloji çalışmalarında kadını esas noktaya taşımış ve kadın hükümlülüğü hakkında yapılan araştırmalar; hükümlü olma nedenlerini, işleniş biçimlerini ve suça karışan kadının demografik özelliklerini incelemiştir. Yapılan çalışmalar sonucunda, hüküm giymiş kadınların ortak sosyal ve demografik özellikleri olduğu gözlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak kadın hükümlü oranlarının yaşanılan bölgeler arasında etkileşim etkisine sahip olup olmadığı ekonometrik tekniklerle araştırılmıştır. Kadın hükümlü oranlarındaki etkileşim etkisi diğer bir ifade ile mekânsal etki mekânsal panel modeller ile tahmin edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, 2009-2017 dönemine ait İBBS2 sınıflandırmasına göre sınıflandırılmış Türkiye’nin 26 alt bölgesine ait yıllık veri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, bağımlı değişken olarak suçun işlendiği bölgede ceza infaz kurumuna giren hükümlü sayısı içinde kadın hükümlülerin oranı alınmıştır. Açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak ise her bölgeye ait kadın iş gücüne katılım oranı, kadın okuma yazma oranı, bölgesel gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla, kadın boşanma sayısı ve kadın evlenme sayısı değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; bölgeler arasında, kadın hükümlü oranı bakımından pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı mekânsal bir etkileşim bulunmaktadır. Diğer bir ifade ile bölgelerde artan kadın hükümlü oranları komşu bölgeleri de etkilemekte ve kadın hükümlü oranlarının artmasına neden olmaktadır.
Spatial Econometric Analysis of Female Convict Rates in TurkeyEren Kaya Çakmakçı, Yeliz Yalçın, Cengiz Arıkan
Recently, the increasing number of female convicts has put women in the limelight of criminology studies, and such studies have examined the reasons for the conviction of female felons, the way the crimes were committed, and the demographic characteristics of women involved in such crimes. Accumulated data regarding female convictions revealed that convicted women had common social and demographic characteristics. In contrast to other research, the present study used econometric techniques to investigate the existence of spatial interaction among regions in terms of the number of female convicts. The researchers used annual data from 2009 to 2017 for Turkey’s 26 subregions. The dependent variable was the proportion of female convicts to the number of convicts entering prison in the area where the crime was committed. The explanatory variables included the participation rate of females in the labor force, female literacy rate, gross domestic product (GDP), number of divorces, and number of marriages. The findings indicated a positive and statistically significant spatial interaction among the regions in terms of the number of female convicts. Therefore, the increasing number of female convicts in any region affects its neighboring regions and consequentially increases the number of female convicts.
Since there are several reasons behind why a person commits a crime, making a general definition of a crime that relates to the essence of the crime can be difficult. More specifically, different perspectives regarding the origin of the essence of the event that caused the crime give a number of meanings to the crime. Although the definition may be indefinite, crime is a social phenomenon in which a person is involved at will, has criminal consequences, and endangers the security of property and life. Crime is one of the important social problems in all eras of society and world history and is among the natural consequences of being a society for people living in a community. To deal with the phenomenon of crime and its negative impact on society, one must fully understand the reasons that constitute the crime. A number of theories about the causes, consequences, and behaviors of crime exist, which can be encountered in various branches of science to date. Accordingly, there are several studies in literature regarding the source and effects of crime, such as individual, psychological, or social reasons. Related literature show that the main reasons of crime are low educational level, unemployment, immigration, marital status, psychological traumas, and economic conditions. Another remarkable result from previous studies is that the reasons of crime have a greater effect on males than on females. However, such a result is observable, as male convict rate has been higher than female convict rate for several years.
On another note, the observable increase in female convict rate has caused an increase in the number of studies that focuses on female convicts. Such studies have revealed the causes of crime perpetrated by females, their methods for committing the crime, and the demographic characteristics of female convicts. Additionally, such studies indicate that the reasons that drive males and females to commit crimes are mostly similar; however, crime arising from situations wherein females are involved leads to diversification of the crime and subsequently increases the number of female convicts. Notably, several reasons, such as incidents of domestic violence faced by females; low educational level; and disparity between males and females in business, lead to an increase in the proportion of female convicts, which reflects the demographics that are used to explain female convictions.
The effects of crime on socio-cultural and economic structures increase daily. The fact that crimes are committed by people in a space, which reveals that such crimes can be identified with the characteristics of that certain space, warrants a thorough examination of this issue. In this context, In contrast to other studies, the present study investigated the rate of female convicts using spatial econometric models and taking into account the interaction between regions. The study aims to examine female convictions, including the aspect of spatial interaction among the subregions of Turkey. Although crimes perpetrated by women do not share similarities, female convicts who have common characteristics affect each other. This interaction causes an increased in the rate of female convicts, which not be limited in one region. However, such a scenario will lead to an increase in the number of female convicts in neighboring regions as well as the entirety of Turkey due to the spillover effect.
The study investigated the spatial effect of female convict rate via spatial panel models. In the present study, the researchers used annual data from 2009 to 2017 for the 26 subregions of Turkey according to the NUTS2 (nomenclature d'unités territoriales statistiques) classification. The female convict ratio is a dependent variable, and the participation rate of females in the labor force, female literacy rate, GDP, number of divorces, and number of marriages are independent variables. The study led to the creation of a weight matrix based on geographical locations in the traditional way. Then, the researchers estimated spatial models (Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR), Spatial Error Model (SEM), and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)) of the fixed and random effects.
The fixed effects of the spatial autoregressive model served as the best model according to the model selection criteria. The results indicated that educational level and participation rate of females in the labor force are directly proportional to female convict rate, whereas the income of a region is inversely proportional to female convict rate. The increase in the number of marriages decreases the rate of female convicts. Most importantly, the researchers observed positive spatial interaction among regions in terms of the rate of female convicts, indicating that a crime can be identified with the place where it was committed, and such a place is one of the most important variables affecting a crime.