Current Methods and Applications in Econometrics

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DOI :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.27   IUP :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.27    Full Text (PDF)

Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between High-technology Export and Institutional Quality

Semanur Soyyiğit

In today's world, the integration of countries with the global economy is considered as an important factor contributing to the growth and development process, especially for developing countries. In this context, although it is important to increase export, only an increase in export will not make a sustainable contribution to this development. Increasing the export share of goods that involve high-technology which is defined as the rapid renewal of information compared to other Technologies, in total manufacturing export will provide significant support to economic development process of develoing countries by consolidating their position in global value chain. The main theme of this study is the interaction of institutional factors, which closely affect economic activities, but often kept in the background, with high-tech export. Within the framework of this main theme, the interaction in question is evaluated with a comparison of developing and developed countries. In this study in which E-7 and G-7 countries were selected to represent developing and developed countries respectively, the causal relationships between the share of high-tech export in total manufacturing export and the six institutional structure indicators published by the World Bank were evaluated by Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test within the context of 1996-2017 period. These indicators are voice and accountability index, government effectiveness index, political stability index, control of corruption index, regulatory quality index and the rule of law index. Index values for these indicators lay between -2.5 and 2.5. The index value approaching -2.5 means institutional deterioration while the value approaching 2.5 indicates institutional improvement.

In the present study, first, cross-section dependence test was applied to all variables. Then,by depending on these results, Im-Pesaran-Shin unit root test was applied to the series which does not have cross-section dependence while Multivariate ADF test was applied to the series which have cross-section dependence. After non-stationary variables were transformed into stationary series by taking the difference, Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test was applied to determine the causal relationships between the variables .

When the findings are evaluated, it is seen that there is uni-directional causal relationship from voice and accountability, political stability and regulatory quality to high-tech export in E-7 countries while in G-7 countries there is uni-directional causal relationship from government effectiveness to high-tech export. Therefore, the institutional factors affecting the high technology export in developing and developed country groups are different from each other. Based on this result, it can also be concluded that high-tech exports of developing countries are more sensitive to institutional factors than developed countries. This is because the export of high-tech products is affected by only one institutional factor in developed countries, while it is affected by three institutional factors in developing countries. When the results that test the causal relationship from the high-tech export to institutional indicators are examined; it is seen that there is a statistically significant causal relationship from high technology export variable to the rule of law and control of corruption variables in E-7 countries while there is a statistically significant causal relationship in G-7 countries from high-tech export to voice and accountability and political stability variables.

Although there is a number of studies examining the relationship between high technology exports of countries with some economic indicators such as foreign direct investments and R & D expenditures, there are limited studies examining the relationship with institutional structure quality. In this sense, considering the findings of the present study that is thought to contribute to the literature, attention is drawn to the importance of institutional factors in increasing the share of products with high value added and knowledge content in total manufacturing exports in developing countries. It may be possible to influence the share of high-tech exports by increasing the quality of institutional factors especially for developing countries.


Keywords: High-tech export, institutional structure, causality analysis
DOI :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.27   IUP :10.26650/B/SS10.2021.013.27    Full Text (PDF)

Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı ve Kurumsal Nitelik Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi

Semanur Soyyiğit

Ülkelerin küresel ekonomi ile bütünleşmeleri, günümüz dünyasında özellikle gelişen ülkeler açısından, büyüme ve gelişme sürecine katkı sağlayan önemli bir faktör olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Bu kapsamda, ihracatın arttırılması önemli olmasına karşın, salt ihracat artışı sürdürülebilir bir katkı sağlamayacaktır. Diğer teknolojilere kıyasla oldukça üstün biçimde bilginin yenilenmesi olarak tanımlanan yüksek teknolojiyi barındıran ürünlerin ihracatının toplam ihracat içerisindeki payının arttırılması, ülkelerin küresel değer zincirindeki konumlarını sağlamlaştırmak suretiyle, ekonomik gelişme süreçlerine önemli destek sağlayacaktır. İktisadi faaliyetleri yakından etkileyen, ancak genellikle geri planda düşünülen kurumsal faktörlerin yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı ile etkileşimi, bu çalışmanın ana temasını oluşturmaktadır. Gelişen ülkeleri temsilen E-7 ülkelerinin ve gelişmiş ülkeleri temsilen G-7 ülkelerinin seçildiği çalışmada, yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatının toplam imalat ihracatı içindeki payı ile Dünya Bankası tarafından yayımlanan altı kurumsal yapı göstergesi arasındaki nedensel ilişkiler 1996-2017 dönemi kapsamında Dumitrescu-Hurlin nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular incelendiğinde; E-7 ülkelerinde şeffaflık ve hesap verebilirlik, politik istikrar ve mevzuat kalitesi değişkenlerinden; G-7 ülkelerinde ise hükümet etkinliği değişkeninden yüksek teknoloji ürün ihracatı payı değişkenine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensel ilişki olduğu görülmektedir. Dolayısıyla, gelişen ve gelişmiş ülke gruplarında yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatını etkileyen kurumsal etkenler birbirinden farklıdır. Aynı zamanda gelişen ülkelerin yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, kurumsal faktörler karşısında gelişmiş ülkelere kıyasla daha kırılgandır. Yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatından kurumsal göstergelere doğru nedensel ilişkiyi test eden sonuçlara bakıldığında ise; E-7 ülkelerinde yüksek teknoloji ihracatı değişkeninden hukukun üstünlüğü ve yolsuzlukla mücadele değişkenlerine doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı nedensel bir ilişki söz konusu iken; G-7 ülkelerinde ise hesap verebilirlik ve politik istikrar değişkenlerine doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı nedensel bir ilişki olduğu görülmektedir.


Keywords: Yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı, Kurumsal yapı, Nedensellik analizi

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