Research Article


DOI :10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639   IUP :10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639    Full Text (PDF)

A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market

Gizem Kaya AydınUmut AydınBurç Ülengin

Using international air cargo data from Turkey, this study compares the forecast performance of three different approaches in the air transport literature for the basic gravity model parameter estimation. The first approach uses ordinary least squares to estimate the gravity model, which is frequently utilized in air transport literature. The second approach, like the first, employs the log-linear estimate technique, but unlike the first, it adds a small amount to the observations with a zero-valued dependent variable and includes them in the analysis. The third method is to estimate the gravity model using the Poisson pseudo maximum-likelihood estimator, which is an alternative to the ordinary least square estimator. The forecast performance of the models developed after estimating the equation with three different approaches was compared with error metrics and the Diebold-Mariano test. As a result of the study, the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator was observed to be the estimator with by far the best forecast performance for the total amount of cargo carried. However, the forecast performance of models differs for some cities.


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APA

Kaya Aydın, G., Aydın, U., & Ülengin, B. (2023). A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 0(39), 112-128. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639


AMA

Kaya Aydın G, Aydın U, Ülengin B. A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics. 2023;0(39):112-128. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639


ABNT

Kaya Aydın, G.; Aydın, U.; Ülengin, B. A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, [Publisher Location], v. 0, n. 39, p. 112-128, 2023.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Kaya Aydın, Gizem, and Umut Aydın and Burç Ülengin. 2023. “A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0, no. 39: 112-128. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639


Chicago: Humanities Style

Kaya Aydın, Gizem, and Umut Aydın and Burç Ülengin. A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0, no. 39 (May. 2024): 112-128. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639


Harvard: Australian Style

Kaya Aydın, G & Aydın, U & Ülengin, B 2023, 'A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market', EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, vol. 0, no. 39, pp. 112-128, viewed 1 May. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Kaya Aydın, G. and Aydın, U. and Ülengin, B. (2023) ‘A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market’, EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 0(39), pp. 112-128. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639 (1 May. 2024).


MLA

Kaya Aydın, Gizem, and Umut Aydın and Burç Ülengin. A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market.” EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, vol. 0, no. 39, 2023, pp. 112-128. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639


Vancouver

Kaya Aydın G, Aydın U, Ülengin B. A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics [Internet]. 1 May. 2024 [cited 1 May. 2024];0(39):112-128. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639 doi: 10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639


ISNAD

Kaya Aydın, Gizem - Aydın, Umut - Ülengin, Burç. A Comparison of Forecasting Performance of PPML and OLS estimators: The Gravity Model in the Air Cargo Market”. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics 0/39 (May. 2024): 112-128. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2023.39.1310639



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Submitted07.06.2023
Accepted10.09.2023
Published Online27.12.2023

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