The Determinants of International Migration in the Context of Terrorist Attacks: A Panel Data Analysis
Bengü Tosun, Murat ErenIn this study, which was developed to examine the determinants of international migration, the validity of the Neo – Classical migration approach, which claims that the main determinant of the migration decision is economic factors, was tested and the relations between the variables were investigated taking into account various economic indicators as well as terrorist incidents. The study was developed within the scope of the 20 countries that receive the most immigrants in the world, and the migration movements from the countries that give the most immigrants to each immigrant receiving country were examined with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator using the five – year data for the period 1995 – 2020 within the framework of the multidimensional panel gravity model. The findings show that the income level in the destination countries negatively affects the migration movements, while the terrorist attacks in the origin countries and the inflation rate of the origin countries affects it positively. In addition, it was determined that the income level and unemployment rate of the origin countries are not statistically significant. In parallel with the findings, it was concluded that the Neo – Classical migration theory is not valid for the countries covered in the research and that the security factor is more important in the migration decision.
Terörist Faaliyetler Bağlamında Uluslararası Göçün Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi
Bengü Tosun, Murat ErenUluslararası göçün belirleyicilerini incelemeye yönelik geliştirilen bu çalışmada, göç kararının temel belirleyicisinin ekonomik faktörler olduğunu ileri süren Neo – Klasik göç yaklaşımının geçerliliği sınanmış ve çeşitli ekonomik göstergeler ile birlikte terör olayları da göz önünde bulundurularak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Çalışma, dünyada en çok göç alan 20 ülke kapsamında geliştirilmiş ve her bir göç alan ülkeye en çok göç veren ülkelerden göç hareketleri çok boyutlu panel çekim modeli çerçevesinde 1995 – 2020 dönemi beş yıllık verileri kullanılarak Poisson Pseudo En Çok Olabilirlik Tahmincisi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, göç alan ülkelerdeki gelir düzeyinin göç hareketlerini negatif yönde, göç veren ülkelerde gerçekleşen terör olaylarının ve göç veren ülkelerin enflasyon oranının uluslararası göç hareketlerini pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermiştir. Göç veren ülkelerin gelir düzeyinin ve işsizlik oranının ise istatistiksel olarak etkili olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular paralelinde araştırma kapsamında ele alınan ülkeler için Neo – Klasik göç teorisinin geçerli olmadığı, güvenlik faktörünün göç kararında daha etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Human migration, which expresses the geographical movement of human communities for social and economic reasons, dates back to the early periods of history. However, international human migration has increased significantly, especially in the last 50 years with the effects of globalization, and the causes and consequences of migration as a concept have changed greatly. The number of international migrants, which had been 84 million in 1970, reached 153 million in 1990 and 281 million in 2020. The increased number of international immigrants, who made up 3.6% of the global population as of 2020, has caused social and economic transformations for both the origin and destination countries. Long-term data on international migration reveal it to not have a uniform structure all over the world but rather to be shaped by economic, geographical, and demographic factors. This study was developed to examine the determinants of international migration. It tests the validity of the Neo - Classical approach to migration, which claims economic factors to be the main determinant for deciding to migrate, and investigates the relations among the variables by taking into account various economic indicators as well as terrorist incidents.
The study was developed within the scope of the 20 countries to have received the most immigrants in the world and examines the migration movements from the countries that have sent the most immigrants to each destination country using the multidimensional panel gravity model approach with five-year datasets from 1995 to 2020. The study uses the number of immigrants from the origin countries as the dependent variable and economic indicators such as income levels, unemployment, and inflation rates of origin and destination countries; the distance between countries; common languages; common borders; and terrorist incidents as independent variables. Model estimation was performed using the multidimensional Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator.
The findings show income levels in destination countries to negatively affect migration movements, while terrorist attacks and inflation rates in origin countries to positively affect international migration movements. In addition, origin countries’ income levels and unemployment rates were determined to not statistically significantly affect migration movements.
In parallel with the findings, Neo - Classical migration theory was determined to not be valid for the countries covered in the research and the factor of security to be more important regarding the decision to migrate. International migration movements have brought about remarkable changes in countries’ economic and social structures. As of 2020, the world had 26.4 million refugees, and in 2020 alone, 3,900 deaths and missing persons had occurred due to migration movements. This study discusses the determinants of international migration, as it has important economic and social consequences. The study aims to use the findings from the empirical analysis to provide data for projecting how to reduce the social and economic costs of migration and to contribute to the existing literature.
