Evaluating the Dynamics Affecting Tolerance Toward Migrants in Türkiye Using Statistical Analyses
Hatice Gül Bozdeveci, Özlem YorulmazHaving occurred throughout the history of humanity, migrations are a social movement closely related to societies and can cause various sociological, psychological, economic, and political problems. The most fundamental reason for migration is individuals’ desire to have a better life. The turmoil in Afghanistan, the Arab Spring, the Syrian civil war, and political instability in recent years have increased mass migration movements. Undoubtedly, Türkiye is one of the countries to have been highly affected by mass migration movements and received large numbers of migrants. The high rate of increase in the number of immigrants in Türkiye has resulted in the produced policies being insufficient, thus necessitating the production of new policies regarding immigrants. This study uses data from the last wave of the World Values Survey regarding Türkiye and involves three different statistical analyses. The first stage of the study classifies the individuals living in Türkiye using a latent class analysis in terms of tolerance toward immigrants. According to the analysis results, individuals are divided into three groups: tolerant, indecisive, and intolerant. The next stage evaluates the socioeconomic and demographic variables that distinguish these three classes from one another using a multi-category logistic regression analysis. The results show the variables of working status, income level, belief level, and political view to be determinative in identifying which of the three classes individuals will be found. The last stage visualizes the relationship between education level and tolerance toward immigrants using correspondence analysis.
Türkiye’de Göçmenlere Yönelik Hoşgörüyü Etkileyen Dinamiklerin İstatistiksel Analizlerle Değerlendirilmesi
Hatice Gül Bozdeveci, Özlem Yorulmazİnsanlık tarihi boyunca süregelen göç etme hali toplumları yakından ilgilendiren ve sosyolojik, psikolojik, iktisadi, siyasi olarak çeşitli sorunlara neden olabilen toplumsal bir harekettir. Göçün sebepleri arasında en temel olanı bireylerin daha iyi bir yaşama sahip olma istekleridir. Son yıllarda yaşanan Arap Baharı, Suriye iç savaşı, siyasi istikrarsızlık nedeniyle meydana gelen Afganistan’daki karışıklıklar kitlesel göç hareketlerinin artmasına sebep olmuştur. Hiç şüphesiz bahsedilen toplu göç hareketlerinden oldukça fazla etkilenen ve yoğun olarak göç alan ülkelerden biri Türkiye’dir. Türkiye’de göçmen sayısındaki artış hızının yüksek olması üretilen politikaların yeterli gelmemesine sebep olarak göçmenlerle ilgili yeni politikalar üretilmesini gerekli kılmıştır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de göçmenlere yönelik hoşgörü Dünya Değerler Anketi’nin son dalgasına ait veriden hareketle detaylı olarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın ilk aşamasında Türkiye’de yaşayan bireyler göçmenlere yönelik toleransları açısından Gizli Sınıf Analizi ile sınıflanmıştır. Bu analiz sonucuna göre bireyler Hoşgörülü olanlar, Kararsızlar ve Hoşgörülü Olmayanlar şeklinde üç sınıfa ayrılmıştır. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında bu üç sınıfı birbirinden ayıran sosyoekonomik ve demografik değişkenler Çok Kategorili Lojistik Regresyon Analizi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre bireylerin çalışma durumları, gelir düzeyleri, inanç düzeyleri ve politik görüşleri, onların hoşgörü düzeylerine göre sınıflanmalarında ayırt edici değişkenlerdir. Çalışmanın son aşamada ise, eğitim düzeyi ve göçmenlere yönelik hoşgörü düzeyleri arasındaki ilişki Uyum Analizi görselleştirilmiştir.
Having occurred throughout humanity’s history, migrations involve social movement closely related to societies and can result in various sociological, psychological, and economic issues. Individuals’ desire to live a better life is the most basic reason for migration. While individuals want the right to a better life, their reasons for migration can be voluntary or compulsory. Reasons such as war, natural disasters, and economic crises are among the factors that force individuals to migrate en masse. In particular, individuals who have to migrate in large groups may cause various social, political, economic, cultural, and religious problems wherever they go. In order to not cause these problems, policymakers must ensure the establishment of a sound balance between the local people and the immigrants.
Throughout history, the issue of migration has emerged as a social phenomenon concerning all societies. The social, political, economic, religious, and cultural order that changes as a result of migration closely affects not only the immigrants but also the local people in the receiving countries. The immigration problem has also grown alongside the increasing world population with mass migrations having had greater impacts on societies.
The history of Türkiye, its geopolitical position, the immigration policies it has followed as a Muslim country, and other similar factors have led to intense immigration over the past years. Wars and conflicts in some countries in recent years, in particular those in such countries as Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine along Türkiye’s land and maritime borders, have increased the number of individuals migrating to Türkiye. The high number of incoming immigrants has caused local people to react and decreased their tolerance toward immigrants.
Türkiye is undoubtedly one of the countries to be greatly impacted by mass migration movements and has been receiving large volumes of immigrants. The high increase in the number of immigrants in Türkiye has caused the produced policies to become insufficient, necessitating the production of new policies regarding immigrants. As a result, problems have been determined to exist between the local people and immigrants from time to time, with locals’ tolerance toward immigrants having decreased.
This study first evaluates how to classify individuals living in Türkiye in terms of tolerance toward immigrants using latent class analysis. According to the obtained results, individuals are divided into three classes: tolerant, intolerant, and undecided. The next stage of the study used multinomial logistic regression analysis to evaluate the relationship between the likelihood of a person being in any of these three classes and their gender, age, education level, income level, employment status, level of religious beliefs, and political views. The variables of employment status, income level, religiosity, and political opinion were observed to have a significant in terms of which of the three classes an individual would be found. A correspondence analysis was employed to evaluate the determinants affecting locals’ tolerance levels in detail, particularly in terms of education. According to the findings, education level affects tolerance toward immigrants, which is in line with the information in the literature. As a result of the analysis, the study determined age to have no effect on tolerance toward immigrants.
