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DOI :10.26650/ISTJECON404747   IUP :10.26650/ISTJECON404747    Full Text (PDF)

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017)

Rümeysa Çelik

In this research, the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports in Turkey as measured by conditional variable variance models is examined using an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model) boundary test and error correction model methods with monthly data between January 1995 and January 2017. First, the relationship of cointegration among variables was researched, using the Bound Test Approach, which was developed by Pesaran, Shin & Smith (2001). After determining that a cointegration relationship exist, the long and short-term relationships between exchange rate volatility and exports were analyzed, using the ARDL and error correction model (ECM). The findings show, that both long and short term signs of the coefficients agree with expectations and are statistically significant. In other words, while the industrial production index and imports affect exports positively in both the long and short terms, the true effective exchange rate index and exchange rate volatility are negatively affected in both the long and short terms.
Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, ARDL bound test, error correction model
DOI :10.26650/ISTJECON404747   IUP :10.26650/ISTJECON404747    Full Text (PDF)

Döviz Kuru Volatilitesinin İhracat Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1995-2017)

Rümeysa Çelik

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de koşullu değişen varyans modelleriyle ölçülen döviz kuru volatilitesinin ihracat üzerine etkisi, 1995:01 ile 2017:01 dönemi arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak ARDL (Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme Modeli) sınır testi ve hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Öncelikle Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) tarafından geliştirilen sınır testi yaklaşımıyla değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme (koentegrasyon) ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunun belirlenmesinin ardından ARDL ve hata düzeltme modeli kullanılarak döviz kuru volatilitesi ile ihracat arasında uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, hem uzun hem de kısa dönem katsayılarının işaretleri beklentilerle uyumlu ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu şeklindedir. Diğer bir ifadeyle, dış geliri temsil eden sanayi üretim endeksi ve ithalat, hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde ihracatı pozitif etkiler iken reel efektif döviz kuru endeksi ve döviz kuru volatilitesi ise hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde negatif etkilemektedir.
Keywords: Döviz kuru volatilitesi, ARDL sınır testi, hata düzeltme modeli

EXTENDED ABSTRACT


In 1973, with the collapse of the Bretton Woods (BW) system, which is based on fixed exchange rates, both developed countries and undeveloped countries were left to deal with fluctuating money rates; this transition resulted in significant respective fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. Uncertainty and the high volatility of these exchange rate movements since the establishment of the floating exchange rate have led policymakers and researchers to examine the nature and extent of the effects of these movements on trade volume.

Theoretically, the influence of exchange rate volatility on international - trade is unclear. In experimental literature, a strong negative correlation is generally found between exchange rate volatility and trade, although in some cases the opposite is found. Despite progress made in collecting data sets and forecasting techniques, a significant portion of both theoretical and experimental literature remains unclear as to the influence of exchange rate volatility on international trade. Given these contradictory theoretical estimates, many experimental investigators have investigated the influence of both real and nominal exchange rate volatility on international trade volume. Their results show that this influence may differ in terms of sampling period, model specification, measurement used for exchange rate volatility, and the countries considered.

In this research, the conceptual framework of exchange rate and volatility and the literature reviews on the influence of exchange rate volatility on exportation are first discussed. Then, the application phase is adressed. To view the influence of exchange rate volatility on exportation in Turkey’s economy, export unit value index, real effective exchange rate index, exchange rate volatility, European Union (EU) industrial production index, and import unit value index are all taken into account. The application, includes monthly data between January 1995 and January 2017. The first part of the study consists of two stages: the first phase is measuring volatility, and the second phase uses the ARDL - bound test approach, which examines both the long and short term relationships between exchange rate volatility and exportation.

In the first phase of the application, ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, GJR - GARCH, TGARCH and APARCH models were evaluated according to various criteria, and it was decided that the GJR-GARCH (1,1) model was the most appropriate. According to this model, we concluded that a possible shock in the market would be temporary and that the market could return to its old condition in 6 months. Moreover, according to the model’s volatility prediction, even if the forecast values are not identical to the actual volatility values, there is enough overlap so as to be able to catch any fluctuation in the volatility.

In the second step of the application, the relationship of cointegration among variables was first researched, using the Bound Test Approach, which was developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). After determining that a cointegration relationship exists, both long and short-term relationships between exchange rate volatility and exportation were analyzed, using the ARDL and error correction models (ECM). The findings show that both long and short term coefficients are statistically significant. In other words, while the industrial production index and imports affect exports positively in both the long and short term, the real effective exchange rate index and exchange rate volatility are negatively affected in both the long and short term. Moreover, as in the long term, exports are the most influential EU industrial production index in the short term. Otherwise, as expected, the ECM coefficient is negatively marked and statistically significant. Thus, after a period of short-term shocks in exports, 0.08 will be corrected and the impact of the shocks will disappear in approximately 12 months. This interprets the model as approaching long term equilibrium or that the rate of long term equilibrium tuning is low.

When we look at the literature on the influence of exchange rate volatility on exportation, the studies conducted are usually only measures of exchange rate volatility or only the influence of exchange rate volatility on exportation. Literature contributions from this research are as follows: Unlike other studies, the volatility of the exchange rate is measured and the volatility model that is most appropriately represented shows the exchange rate volatility. In addition, the influence of exchange rate volatility on exports was analyzed in the same study. Also, another contribution of this research to the literature is an application containing a broader sample period. 


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Çelik, R. (2018). The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017). Istanbul Journal of Economics, 68(1), 181-220. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747


AMA

Çelik R. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017). Istanbul Journal of Economics. 2018;68(1):181-220. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747


ABNT

Çelik, R. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017). Istanbul Journal of Economics, [Publisher Location], v. 68, n. 1, p. 181-220, 2018.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Çelik, Rümeysa,. 2018. “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017).” Istanbul Journal of Economics 68, no. 1: 181-220. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747


Chicago: Humanities Style

Çelik, Rümeysa,. “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017).” Istanbul Journal of Economics 68, no. 1 (Apr. 2025): 181-220. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747


Harvard: Australian Style

Çelik, R 2018, 'The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017)', Istanbul Journal of Economics, vol. 68, no. 1, pp. 181-220, viewed 26 Apr. 2025, https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Çelik, R. (2018) ‘The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017)’, Istanbul Journal of Economics, 68(1), pp. 181-220. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747 (26 Apr. 2025).


MLA

Çelik, Rümeysa,. “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017).” Istanbul Journal of Economics, vol. 68, no. 1, 2018, pp. 181-220. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747


Vancouver

Çelik R. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017). Istanbul Journal of Economics [Internet]. 26 Apr. 2025 [cited 26 Apr. 2025];68(1):181-220. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747 doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON404747


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Çelik, Rümeysa. “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017)”. Istanbul Journal of Economics 68/1 (Apr. 2025): 181-220. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON404747



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Submitted12.03.2018
Accepted30.04.2018
Published Online27.06.2018

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