Analysis of Internal Migration in Turkey Within The Framework of the Todaro Paradox: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach
Emrah Kıratoğlu, İlknur Yeşim DinçelIn primitive societies, individual and mass migration took place to settle in more productive and/or safer areas. In the modern world, migration occurs for similar reasons, such as obtaining a higher level of welfare, accessing educational and employment opportunities, and fleeing the dangers of war. The Todaro Paradox is an economic theory proposing that migration from rural to urban areas in developing countries can destroy the positive effect of increased urban employment opportunities. Based on the Todaro Paradox, this study sought to measure the effect of increased employment opportunities in cities and migration from rural to urban on urban unemployment in Turkey in the 1988-2019 time period. The findings obtained using ARDL bound testing reveal a statistically significant relationship between the relevant variables. Suggesting that migration from rural to urban areas in Turkey suppresses growth in employment opportunities and increases unemployment. As long as elevated expected income is not supported through rural development policies, internal migration will continue. Rising unemployment among urban populations will result in significant economic and sociological challenges.
Türkiye’de İç Göç Olgusunun Todaro Paradoksu Çerçevesinde Analizi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı
Emrah Kıratoğlu, İlknur Yeşim Dinçelİlkel toplumlarda bireysel ve kitlesel göçler mevcut alandan daha verimli ya da daha güvenli alanlara yerleşmek için gerçekleştirilmiştir. Modern dünyada ise özünde benzer sebepler olmakla beraber, yüksek refah seviyesine ulaşma, eğitim fırsatları ve istihdam olanaklarına erişme, savaş gibi sebeplerden ötürü göçler meydana gelmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde kırdan kente yapılan göçlerin, kentlerdeki istihdam olanaklarındaki artışın sağladığı pozitif etkiyi yok edebileceği Todaro Paradoksu olarak iktisat teorisinde yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1988-2019 yılları arasında kentteki istihdam olanaklarının artışı ile kırdan kente yapılan göçlerin, kent işsizliğine etkisinin Todaro Paradoksu çerçevesinde ölçülmesi amaçlanmıştır. ARDL sınır testi sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye’de 1988-2019 yıllarında ilgili değişkenler arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bir diğer deyişle, Türkiye’de kırdan kente yapılan göçler, kentteki istihdam imkanlarındaki artışı baskılamakta ve kentlerde işsizliği arttırmaktadır. Kırsal kalkınma politikaları ile beklenen gelirdeki artış desteklenmediği sürece, iç göçler üzerinde beklenen gelirin etkisi devam edecektir. Kent nüfusu içinde artan işsizlik ise giderek daha önemli iktisadi ve sosyolojik sorunlara neden olacaktır.
Migration is the act of individuals moving within or between countries due to force majeure or to achieve personal goals. Multiple socioeconomic factors can trigger decisions to migrate, and new communities and social lives are formed in both the area of migration and abandoned area as a result of such individual or mass movement.
The phenomenon of migration, which is high on the agenda of many countries across the globe, has a very important place due to changing living standards. The living conditions of abandoned regions of international or national human flows have been observed as more negative to human flourishing than the preferred region. At the same time, issues such as unplanned urbanization, increased crime rates, interpersonal communication challenges, and racism can arise in the migration from underdeveloped regions to developed regions.
Concerning the attempt to maintain a balance in class relations between individuals in the same region, migration from irregular and underdeveloped regions results in income differences, particulary related to employment which are at the forefront of rising crime and incompatibility in a society defined by the rule of law.
Hope of a better life, health, or employment opportunities is called internal migration. The first data on internal migration in Turkey was obtained by Turkstat in the 1970 general population census by asking the place of residence of the people in the previous year. The causes of internal migration in Turkey have over time. While immigration occurred for reasons such as job changes and marriage in the early years of the Republic, in the advent of technological development and industrialization, mobility from rural to urban areas and from city to city occured in the subsequent periods. In addition to various appealing factors, such as city’s zoning amnesty, terrorist incidents in the east of the country increased migration movements from east to west.
As the Turkish economy evolved from agriculture to industry and service sectors, internal migration became prominent and attracted attention starting in the 1950s. In this context, migration from rural areas to city centers accelerated urbanization. As a result of internal migration movements in Turkey over the years, significant differences in interregional development and interregional population densities have emerged. Since the service standards offered by the cities are more attractive to individuals, there are now regional variations in health, environment, employment, social, and economic factors. Intense transitions occurred in the eastern parts of the country, especially to the Marmara Region. Among the main reasons for this circumstance are the rising mechanization of agriculture, increasing unemployment in villages, education opportunities in cities, and security.
In this study, from perspective of the Todaro Paradox, the significant weakening of new employment opportunities in cities due to internal migration was tested using the ARDL limit test, examing internal migration and urban unemployment rates the years from 1988 to 2019 and the validity of the Todaro Paradox for Turkey. The findings revealed a significant relationship between the urban employment rate, rural population rate, and urban unemployment rate for 1988- 2019 in Turkey. The analysis demonstrates that the positive effect of increasing employment opportunities in Turkish cities in reducing the unemployment rate is diminished by internal migration. This result confirms the validity of the Todaro Paradox in Turkey between 1988 and 2019. In other words, continuous increase in employment opportunities in cities triggers rural migration to cities causing unemployment to become endemic.
These findings are congruent with other studies examining the relationship between immigration to cities and unemployment in cities. It would not be incorrect to assert that urban immigration is related to multiple issues, such as population density, unplanned urbanization, insufficient infrastructure, and traffic complications. It is insufficient to develop policy packages based only on cities to address such changelles. Policies aimed at managing the problems experienced in cities should include regional aspect aimed at increasing employment opportunities and improving living standards in rural areas. When individuals do not face unemployment in the region in which they live and if they feel that education, health, and security are sufficient, they will tend to be more cautious and hesitant regarding migration. At this point, encouraging reverse migration with rural development policies is an important consideration for preventing internal rural-urban migration, which is triggered by low incomes and lack of living standards in rural areas compared to urban areas.
