Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model

Yaşar Zaim

doi:https://dx.doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Research Article

DOI :10.26650/JEPR1477032 IUP :10.26650/JEPR1477032 Full Text (PDF)

Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model

Türkiye is a country in which the COVID-19 pandemic has deeply affected export performance. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Turkish export performance using different variables indicating the severity of the COVID-19 effects. The effect of COVID-19 on Türkiye’s export performance is empirically analysed with the ARDL approach by employing time series data covering the 2013:q1-2022:q1 period. The estimation results of the six models indicate that COVID-19 does not affect Turkish export performance in the long term, whereas its lagged variables have negative and significant effects in the short term. Foreign income has positive and statistically significant effects on export volumes in both the short and long term. The exchange rate significantly and negatively affects export flows in both the short and long term. The results of this paper are robust against different types of COVID-19 proxies. COVID-19 has negative effects on exports in the short run for Türkiye’s economy. The results indicate that policymakers should consider the lagged effects of variables in addition to the current version. The findings also show the recommendation that short- and long-run estimations should be conducted to determine the short- and long-run relations.

Keywords: Covid-19, export performance, supply chain, lockdown policies, ARDL method

JEL Classification : C22 , F14 , I18

DOI :10.26650/JEPR1477032 IUP :10.26650/JEPR1477032 Full Text (PDF)

Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye’nin İhracat Performansına Etkisi: ARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

Zaim Reha Yaşar

Covid-19 salgınının dış ticareti derinden etkilediği ülkelerden biri Türkiye’dir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Covid-19 salgınının Türkiye’nin ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini, farklı Covid-19 değişkenleri ile analiz etmektir. Covid-19 salgınının ihracat üzerindeki etkisi ampirik olarak ARDL yöntemi ile analiz edilmiş olup analiz dönemi 2013:q1-2022:q2 aralığını kapsamaktadır. Altı modelin de tahmin sonuçları, Covid-19 salgınının uzun vadede Türkiye’nin ihracatını etkilemediğini fakat gecikmeli değerlerin kısa vadede ihracatı negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilediğini göstermektedir. Dış dünya gelirinin ise kısa ve uzun dönemde ihracat üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkileri bulunmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, döviz kuru hem kısa hem de uzun vadede ihracatı önemli derecede olumsuz etkilemektedir. Farklı Covid-19 değişkenleri ile yapılan analizin sonuçları birbirini destekler niteliktedir. Bununla birlikte Covid-19, ihracat üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini kısa dönemde göstermektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar, sadece cari göstergeleri değil değişkenlerin gecikmeleri etkilerini de göz önünde bulundurmalıdır. Sonuçlar aynı zamanda kısa ve uzun vadeli ilişkileri görmek için kısa ve uzun dönemli tahminlerin de yapılması gerektiğini desteklemektedir.

Keywords: Covid-19, ihracat performansı, arz zinciri, karantina önlemleri, ARDL yöntemi

JEL Classification : C22 , F14 , I18

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APA

Yaşar, Z.R. (2024). Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 11(2), 263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

AMA

Yaşar Z R. Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. Journal of Economic Policy Researches. 2024;11(2):263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

ABNT

Yaşar, Z.R. Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, [Publisher Location], v. 11, n. 2, p. 263-277, 2024.

Chicago: Author-Date Style

Yaşar, Zaim Reha,. 2024. “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 11, no. 2: 263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Chicago: Humanities Style

Yaşar, Zaim Reha,. “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 11, no. 2 (Oct. 2024): 263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Harvard: Australian Style

Yaşar, ZR 2024, 'Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model', Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 263-277, viewed 7 Oct. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Harvard: Author-Date Style

Yaşar, Z.R. (2024) ‘Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model’, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 11(2), pp. 263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032 (7 Oct. 2024).

MLA

Yaşar, Zaim Reha,. “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 11, no. 2, 2024, pp. 263-277. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Vancouver

Yaşar ZR. Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model. Journal of Economic Policy Researches [Internet]. 7 Oct. 2024 [cited 7 Oct. 2024];11(2):263-277. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032 doi: 10.26650/JEPR1477032

ISNAD

Yaşar, ZaimReha. “Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 11/2 (Oct. 2024): 263-277. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1477032

Volume 11, Issue 22024, P. 263-277

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Submitted	02.05.2024
Accepted	08.07.2024
Published Online	05.08.2024

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Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model

Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye’nin İhracat Performansına Etkisi: ARDL Modelinden Kanıtlar

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