Journal of Economic Policy Researches

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DOI :10.26650/JEPR1349411   IUP :10.26650/JEPR1349411    Full Text (PDF)

The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation

Hande Aksöz Yılmaz

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric effects of globalization on inflation. While theoretical and applied studies emphasize the negative effect of globalization on inflation, they explain this through market mechanisms and efficiency. In an open economy, the need for seigniorage incomes decreases, as the incomes obtained as a result of trade will increase. An economy that increases foreign trade revenues needs less seigniorage revenues. Foreign trade income will result in a decline in inflation if an increase in the money supply is the primary cause of inflation. Romer (1993) emphasizes that the other channel that reveals the negative effect of globalization on inflation is the market mechanism. In this instance, the presence of foreign currencies that can take the place of the national currency in an open economy helps to lower inflation. Also, inflation is reduced by economic openness because it allows for specialization and economies of scale. This study uses the annual data of Turkey’s consumer price index, GDP per capita, general government final consumption expenditures (% of GDP), globalization index-KOF (economic, political, and social globalization indexes), and exchange rate variables for 1970-2021. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) estimation method is used in the analysis of the asymmetric effect of different components of globalization on inflation. The findings reveal that economic and social globalization has an asymmetric effect on inflation; however, also revealed is the non-significance of the asymmetrical effect of political globalization on inflation.

Keywords: Economic Globalization, Social Globalization, Political Globalization, Inflation, Non-Linear ARDL
JEL Classification : B23 , F6 , E31
DOI :10.26650/JEPR1349411   IUP :10.26650/JEPR1349411    Full Text (PDF)

Ekonomik, Sosyal ve Siyasi Küreselleşmenin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri

Hande Aksöz Yılmaz

Bu çalışma, küreselleşmenin enflasyon üzerindeki asimetrik etkilerini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Teorik ve uygulamalı çalışmalar küreselleşmenin enflasyon üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini vurgulamaktadır. Bu negatif etki, piyasa mekanizması ve verimlilik üzerinden açıklamaktadır. Senyoraj gelirlerine bağımlı olan kapalı bir ekonomi yerine dışa açık bir ekonominin geçmesi, dış ticaret sonucu elde edilen gelirleri artıracağından senyoraj gelirlerine olan ihtiyaç azalmaktadır. Dış ticaret gelirlerini artıran bir ekonomi, daha az senyoraj gelirine ihtiyaç duyar. Enflasyonun ana nedeni para arzındaki artış olarak kabul edilecek olursa, dış ticaret geliri enflasyonda düşüşe neden olacaktır. Romer (1993), küreselleşmenin enflasyon üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini ortaya koyan diğer kanalın piyasa mekanizması olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Bu durumda açık bir ekonomide ulusal paranın yerini alabilecek yabancı para birimlerinin varlığı enflasyonun düşürülmesine yardımcı olmaktadır. Ayrıca, üretimde uzmanlaşmaya ve ölçek ekonomisine izin verdiği için ekonomik açıklık enflasyonu azaltmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 1970-2021 yılları için Türkiye’nin tüketici fiyatları endeksi, kişi başına düşen GSYİH, Genel Devlet Nihai Tüketim Harcamaları (GSYİH’nin yüzdesi), Küreselleşme Endeksi-KOF (ekonomik, politik ve sosyal küreselleşme endeksleri) ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin yıllık verileri kullanılmaktadır. Küreselleşmenin farklı bileşenlerinin enflasyon üzerindeki asimetrik etkisinin analizinde Doğrusal Olmayan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (NARDL) modeli tahmin yöntemi kullanılmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları, ekonomik ve sosyal küreselleşmenin enflasyon üzerinde asimetrik bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bunun yanı sıra politik küreselleşmenin enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi anlamsızdır. 

Keywords: Ekonomik Küreselleşme, Sosyal Küreselleşme, Siyasi, Küreselleşme, Enflasyon, Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL
JEL Classification : B23 , F6 , E31

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APA

Aksöz Yılmaz, H. (2024). The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 11(1), 63-74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411


AMA

Aksöz Yılmaz H. The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches. 2024;11(1):63-74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411


ABNT

Aksöz Yılmaz, H. The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, [Publisher Location], v. 11, n. 1, p. 63-74, 2024.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande,. 2024. “The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 11, no. 1: 63-74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411


Chicago: Humanities Style

Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande,. “The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches 11, no. 1 (May. 2024): 63-74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411


Harvard: Australian Style

Aksöz Yılmaz, H 2024, 'The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation', Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 63-74, viewed 8 May. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Aksöz Yılmaz, H. (2024) ‘The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation’, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 11(1), pp. 63-74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411 (8 May. 2024).


MLA

Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande,. “The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation.” Journal of Economic Policy Researches, vol. 11, no. 1, 2024, pp. 63-74. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411


Vancouver

Aksöz Yılmaz H. The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches [Internet]. 8 May. 2024 [cited 8 May. 2024];11(1):63-74. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411 doi: 10.26650/JEPR1349411


ISNAD

Aksöz Yılmaz, Hande. “The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 11/1 (May. 2024): 63-74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411



TIMELINE


Submitted24.08.2023
Accepted30.10.2023
Published Online16.02.2024

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