Hasan

Tariff Disadvantages of SMEs in International Trade

Gülden

Res. Assist.

Akmyrat

DETERMINANTS OF NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE

Hüseyin

DECISIONS OF THE POWERFUL CAPITALISTS AND UNCERTAINTY: A  RATIONAL EXPECTATION APPROACH

Burcu

FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Economic Freedom

Ahmet

Prof.

Call for Papers for the Special Issue "JEPR: 10th Anniversary"

Fatih

Assist. Prof. Dr.

One of the topics that have intensively been examined and discussed in international economics literature, particularly since the 1980s, is whether the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is valid in reality. It is a well-known fact that the PPP doctrine that has a special place among different theories of exchange rates is built around a sound theoretical base, i.e., the notion of the law of one-price. However, when the studies testing the validity of the PPP approach, especially of its absolute version, through time-series techniques are reviewed generally, it can easily be inferred that no widespread evidence favoring the hypothesis has surfaced as yet. One may even go on to conclude that the findings obtained against it outweigh those of the opposite case when it comes to developing economies. The mixed evidence appeared in the literature can partly be attributed to the limitations of the traditional econometric methodologies and/or to the shortness of the time-spans that have been made use of in some of the studies. Indeed, the analyses taking account of potential structural breaks or non-linear developments in the relevant series or models have, in general, yielded more evidence in favor of the PPP approach relative to those making use of traditional methods. Besides, the studies utilizing time-spans that are relatively longer in terms of the number of years have typically provided more support to the PPP hypothesis than otherwise, probably because it is, in essence, a long-term phenomenon.The fact that there has generally been a noticeable disagreement between the PPP doctrine and empirical evidence has motivated many researchers to carry out new studies on the subject, especially for developing countries. Recent advancements in econometrics and the increasing numbers of observations emerging during the era of floating exchange rate regime have facilitated carrying out more reliable tests for the PPP hypothesis. Using a battery of alternative econometric techniques, this study attempts to uncover if the absolute PPP hypothesis holds good in the Turkish economy for the period in which the floating regime is effectively adopted. Specifically, during the political and economic crises that had begun towards the 20th of February, 2001, the Turkish exchange rate regime was, once and for all, switched from a type of crawling-peg regime to a floating one on the 22nd of the same month of 2001. The empirical investigations of the current study cover the time-periods spanning from just after this latest major change in the regime to the most recent available time-points that varied according to which one of the two average price indicators, i.e., the CPI and PPI series, was considered. The nominal exchange rate variables were measured based on two different types, i.e., the period-average and end-of-period rates. Therefore, four alternate real exchange rate variables or long-run regression models were made use of in testing the hypothesis. Those nominal and real exchange rate variables are defined in terms of the direct quotation between the Turkish Lira (TL) and the US Dollar (USD). The data employed here are of quarterly frequency.The analyses of central interest in the current study were conducted by using the ADF-based unit-root tests and KPSS-based stationarity tests. Traditional versions of those tests, which do not take control of potential structural breaks, have all shown that each of the four alternate real exchange rate series has a unit-root at its level. Based on this incomplete picture, one might conclude that deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate implied by the PPP relationship are permanent. Secondary analyses conducted here within the same context relate to the question of whether there is a cointegration relationship between the variables of nominal exchange rate and relative price, for each model composed of alternate variables. Doing so has made it possible to determine whether the results of the unit-root and stationarity tests are sensitive to relaxing the restriction of “proportionality”. The findings from the traditional ADF-type cointegration tests have indicated that, with one exceptional case, there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between those two variables while the traditional KPSS-type cointegration tests have, in general, yielded findings showing that there does exist such a relationship. An important implication derived from these two types of tests is the lack of an unambiguous confirmatory evidence supporting the existence of a long-run relationship. Taking into consideration the results of these KPSS-type cointegration tests, I went ahead and estimated the long-run models by means of the dynamic OLS (DOLS) and fully-modified OLS (FMOLS) techniques. Those models have revealed that the coefficient estimates are significantly different from zero and the condition of proportionality is, as expected, not satisfied. To evaluate the findings obtained by using, and based on, the traditional cointegration tests shortly, one can say that the weak form of the absolute PPP hypothesis has been supported for the Turkish economy only weakly.&nbsp;This study also contains some analyses in which a series of modern test procedures taking into account the possibility of structural breaks in the relevant real exchange rate variables are used. Among four different types of ADF-based tests that control for the structural break(s) in the variables of interest by way of the standard “dummy variable” approach, one type, which controls for two breaks, has produced strong evidence in favor of the PPP hypothesis. The other three, however, have returned findings indicating otherwise for almost all the alternative cases. Nevertheless, the KPSS-based tests used in this very context have unequivocally supported the validity of the hypothesis. What seemed intriguing based on these modern tests is that the findings obtained by using the one-break version of the ADF unit-root test are clearly at odds with those of the one-break version of the KPSS stationarity test. Because of this contradiction, the ADF- and KPSS-based cointegration tests that control for one-break in the relevant model were also carried out in this study. The results obtained therefrom have shown that the contradictory findings just mentioned were, to a certain extent, resolved as a result of relaxing the restriction of proportionality. The long-run models estimated based on those tests by employing the DOLS and FMOLS estimators have provided robust evidence indicating the validity of the absolute PPP hypothesis with a break in its weak form. This study, on the other hand, benefited from a newer strand of unit-root and stationarity tests in which potential structural breaks in the relevant series are taken into account with the aid of a Fourier-function. The Fourier-ADF tests employed in this regard have unanimously shown that the PPP hypothesis is valid when the frequencies contained in the relevant Fourier-expansions are taken fractionally, and invalid when they are defined by integer values. Finally, the Fourier-KPSS tests with integer frequencies have, to a large extent, yielded evidence indicating the validity of the hypothesis.&nbsp;Based upon the econometric analyses carried out in this study, one can derive a few “generalized” results. First, according to the findings from the traditional unit-root and stationarity tests, the absolute PPP hypothesis does not seem to hold in its restricted (or strong) form in Turkiye for the particular time-periods studied. It has, however, been found to hold true when a number of modern tests with higher performance are employed. Second, the KPSS-based modern tests with the null hypothesis of stationarity have provided more evidence favoring the PPP hypothesis, compared to the ADF-based modern tests taking the presence of a unit-root as their null hypothesis. Third, traditional cointegration tests that were used to determine whether the absolute PPP hypothesis is valid in its unrestricted (or weak) form have not yielded convincing evidence in its favor. Nonetheless, the cointegration tests taking the possibility of a break into account have returned some affirmative and confirmed findings in that regard. Fourth, it has been seen that the findings obtained both in favor of and against the hypothesis are not fragile to changing the measurement type of the exchange rate variable. Unlike this, the variables or models constructed with the PPI indicator have, in some cases, led to achieving more pronounced evidence in support of the PPP relationship, relative to those constructed with the CPI. Fifth, the findings obtained here have generally supported the qualified-PPP hypothesis, rather than its standard (Casselian) version. The reason for this is that the affirmative evidence that is mutually confirmed, to a certain degree, by two different types of tests has only come from the cases with structural breaks. Overall, the empirical analyses conducted in this paper reveal the non-trivial dependence of the results pertaining to the PPP hypothesis on the techniques and methods employed. They also imply that the equilibrium bilateral exchange rate between the TL and the USD can best be calculated by using the PPP models that take account of the possibility of structural breaks. It may nevertheless need to be emphasized that all the results presented herein should be approached with some caution because of the boundaries involved.&nbsp;

The Purchasing Power Parity Approach: Theory, Literature, and Evidence from the ADF-Based and KPSS-Based Tests for the Case of Turkiye

Fatma

Assoc. Prof. Dr.

The effects of uncertainty on macroeconomic variables have been frequently discussed in recent years due to the global uncertainty caused by the 2008 Global Economic Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Global economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks are interrelated and affect stock returns. When uncertainty is high, oil prices increase, and increases in oil prices negatively affect stock markets and reduce stock returns through such channels as production costs, inflation, investment, consumption, and interest rates. Economic policy uncertainty is the main transmitter in the transmission mechanism of oil price shocks, so it acts as the main transmitter in the relationship between oil price shocks and stock markets. Global economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks significantly affect both fundamental macroeconomic variables and stock returns. These effects become even more critical for fragile emerging economies and energy-importer countries such as Türkiye. Although many studies have examined the impact of oil price shocks on stock markets, the number of studies that including economic policy uncertainty in this relationship has increased in recent years. The main motivation for the current study is the limited number of studies in the existing literature analyzing the linkages among global economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks, and stock returns. The second motivation is that no study has investigated the relationships among these variables for Türkiye using structural VAR analysis. Based on these motivations, this study aims to contribute to the investigation of the effects of global economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks on stock returns in Türkiye.The study analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns under global economic policy uncertainty for Türkiye using monthly data for the period of 2014:01-2023:06. The variables used in the analysis are the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, the global price of Brent crude oil, the Bursa Istanbul (BIST)-100 Return Index, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based real effective exchange rate, and interest rate. The study has applied the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests to the relevant series to investigate their stationarity. The results of both unit root tests provide consistent empirical evidence that the series are stationary in their first differences. The study then constructs the vector auto-regression (VAR) model, with the results from the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test to determine whether an autocorrelation problem is present among the error terms, from the White test to detect the problem of changing variance, and from the Jarque-Bera normality test indicating the specified model to be well-structured.After providing the preconditions for the structural VAR (SVAR) analysis, the long-run multiplier matrix of the model is obtained to interpret the signs of the variables before the impulse-response analysis. Accordingly, a negative relationship exists between global economic policy uncertainty and the BIST-100 Return Index. According to the variance decomposition analysis, 1.79% of the changes in the BIST-100 Return Index at the end of the period are explained by shocks in global economic policy uncertainty, 4% by shocks in oil prices, 12.3% by interest rates, and 55.8% by changes in the real exchange rate. These results suggest that changes in the BIST-100 Return Index in Türkiye are explained mainly by shocks to the exchange rate. The results indicate global economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks to have relatively less of a shock. BIST-100 stock returns in Türkiye are affected by global economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks, real exchange rates, and interest rates. However, real exchange rate shocks explain most of the changes in BIST-100 stock returns. The impact of interest rate changes is also more significant than economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks. Accordingly, exchange rate and interest rate policy can be claimed to significantly impact the stock market in Türkiye. However, the impact of global economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks is relatively limited. These results suggest that investors who invest or who will invest in the stock market should closely monitor the exchange and interest rates alongside uncertainty and oil price shocks.

The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Oil Price Shocks on Stock Returns: A Structural VAR Analysis on Türkiye

Mehmet

Causalities Between Exports, Imports, and Total Factor Productivity in Developing Countries: The Case of Türkiye, Brazil, India, and South Africa

Barış

Dilek

Prof. Dr.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of university students’ financial literacy level on their participation in financial investment markets. For this purpose, a survey was conducted with the participation of 703 undergraduate and associate degree students at the University of Health Sciences. The obtained data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. According to the analysis results, although objectively measured financial literacy (via a test) did not have a significant effect on participation in investment markets, perceived financial literacy measured through self-report had an impact on participation in such markets. While students make their investment choices, they do not support their actions even with a basic investment knowledge. The low financial literacy score also supports this result (Average 33.3). On the other hand, students are aware of whether they are qualified to invest or not. However, they invest without having basic investment knowledge. This reveals that students act irrationally in their investment choices and tend to behave speculatively. In addition, while it was concluded that risk aversion, savings tendency, gender, age, working status, and the presence of family members in the field of finance had an impact on students’ participation in financial investment markets, it was determined that education level was not an explanatory factor on participation in such markets. Additionally, while a positive relationship was found between perceived financial literacy, propensity to save, age, being employed, having a family member working in the field of finance, and investing in financial instruments, a negative relationship was determined between risk aversion, being a woman, and investing in financial instruments. Supposing that exposure to risk is part of the nature of investing, it makes sense that a negative relationship between risk aversion and investing in financial instruments. Considering that savings are the source of financing investments, a direct relationship is expected between saving and investing. Working students (mean 0.92/2) have a higher savings bracket than non-working students (mean 0.71/2). This is a possible explanation for the relatively high tendency of working students to invest. The fact that women’s risk aversion (mean. 3.66/5) is higher than men’s (mean. 3.30/5) is a possible reason why women tend to invest less in financial instruments. The presence of a parent or sibling who works in finance can create a positive externality for other family members through that person’s financial knowledge, financial socialisation and experience. This is a possible explanation for the positive effect of having a financial employee in the family on financial investments. Considering that being a university student is a semi-autonomous process on the way to becoming an individual independent of parental guidance, many students make their own consumption, savings, and investment decisions for the first time during their time at university. This can be expected to create awareness, experience, and awareness among students over time when making individual financial decisions. Thus, older students may tend to invest. It can be said that the participation rates of undergraduate (39.86%) and associate degrees (38.02%) students in investment markets are increasing. This indicates that students in both groups have similar financial awareness. This may indicate that academic success does not have a decisive effect on financial awareness. As a result, although students invest in financial instruments based on a rational reason in accordance with their level of financial literacy, in reality, they do not have this level of financial literacy, and their financial investments consist of speculative investments that are not supported by basic investment knowledge. Although they intend to act consciously when making investment decisions, they make unconscious investments without realising it. Students’ attempts to invest without increasing their knowledge on financial matters prevent them from being able to manage their risks correctly and make rational financial decisions. Today, when access to information is easier than ever before, it is recommended that students invest in financial instruments after increasing their financial literacy to prevent possible material and moral losses. Considering that financial literacy is a common issue for all segments of society, policymakers are recommended that courses in the field of personal finance should be taught as compulsory courses not only in the economics and finance-themed departments of universities but also in the curricula of all undergraduate and associate degree departments.

The Effect Of Financial Literacy On Participation In Investment Markets: A Study On University of Health Sciences Students

Assoc. Prof.

Mustafa

Assist. Prof.

Nuriye

The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on Turkish Unemployment

Güner

Metin

With the progress of digitalisation, customer behaviours in the financial sector are also undergoing transformations. The simplest example of this is the evolution of consumption habits. With the expansion of digital network platforms, consumption has become easier, faster, and more reliable. Undoubtedly, credit card expenditures take precedence over these outlays. In a period characterised by such an elevated intensity of credit card expenditures, the importance of secure shopping has significantly increased for both the customer and the banks. In this context, while banks broaden credit card spending networks, they are simultaneously trying to maintain safety infrastructure. With the progress of online money transactions, banks have abandoned traditional methods and have initiated the use of advanced artificial intelligence-based methodologies to detect fraudulent transactions in credit card expenditures.&nbsp;In the introductory section of the study, while determining its outlines, it has been noted that credit card expenditures have increased significantly with the globalisation. In parallel with this trend, it has been mentioned that banks may experience challenges because they rely on conventional methods for fraud detection in credit card transactions.&nbsp;In the second part of this study, a literature review is conducted, and machine learning is briefly mentioned, as well as studies on detecting credit card fraud. In this context, it has been observed that machine learning methods are generally used to detect credit card fraud, and domestic studies are found to be relatively fewer than international studies.&nbsp;The third and final part of the study covers the practical application phase. This section provides information about the model’s data and preparation. In this study, artificial intelligence-based machine learning methods were used with the aim of shedding light on banks’ ability to detect credit card fraud. Real data from January 2023 is used to create the model, with an observation count of 13050. The dataset was obtained from a public capital bank and has not been shared because it contains customer information for security reasons. The dependent variable of the model consists of two categories: fraud and non-fraud. Independent variables are not detailed. However, other studies have observed that independent variables are not shared. Unlike previous studies, a model proposal is prepared using some features.During model setup, algorithms with high prediction performance for classification problems are preferred. In this context, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting algorithms have been used. The accuracy scores of the algorithms used in the model setup have been determined as, Logistic Regression 92.5%, Decision Tree 93.1%, K-Nearest Neighbour 86.4%, Random Forest 91.8%, and gradient boosting 86.9%. A detailed analysis of the models was shared comparatively, and unlike previous studies, both ROC-AUC curves and confusion matrices of the models were individually shared in the test performance metrics. In addition, the precision and F1 score metrics of the models are also presented.Looking at the test results of the models, it is determined that they have high performance in predicting credit card fraud. In this context, the study has demonstrated the successful construction of prediction models using supervised machine learning techniques. Five algorithms were offered as alternatives to the study. As a limitation of this study, the dataset was not publicly available. In addition, the "transaction time" information from the dataset was excluded due to the risk of anomalies. In this context, by adding this information, which was excluded from the dataset for other studies, a new model proposal can be made.

Predicting Credit Card Fraud using Supervised Machine Learning Methods: Comparative Analysis

Zaim

Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL Model

Yahya

Neoliberal development paradigms have long been associated with advocating for the primacy of free market principles and trade liberalisation as engines of economic growth and development in developing countries. Central to this ideology is the critique of foreign aid, which is often deemed to foster dependency and hinder progress. However, an intriguing paradox emerges when one scrutinises the actual practises within neoliberal frameworks. Despite rhetoric against foreign aid, approaches such as Aid for Trade and Global Value Chains underscore the pivotal role of aid in fostering trade and enabling participation in global markets.This study explores this paradox by examining the discrepancy between the discourse and the practical use of foreign aid within neoliberal development approaches. Neoliberal development approaches have consistently criticised foreign aid on several grounds. First, aid dependency theory posits that continuous inflows of aid create reliance on aid, thus inhibiting self-sufficiency and sustainable development. Second, aid has been accused of perpetuating a cycle of poverty by distorting local markets and disincentivizing domestic entrepreneurship and investment. Finally, Neoliberalism’s emphasis on individual responsibility and market efficiency suggests that aid undermines these principles by fostering a culture of entitlement and handouts.Aid creates dependency, hinders development, and should be eliminated. However, OECD data indicate that despite the rise of neoliberalism since the 1980s, foreign aid has continued to increase and has reached record levels in recent years. This discrepancy between the rhetoric surrounding neoliberal development approaches and their implementation highlights that foreign aid has not been phased out as advocated. Contrary to the discourse against foreign aid, the scope and amount of aid have significantly increased in the implementation of neoliberal development approaches. Rather than eliminating foreign aid, approaches such as Aid for Trade and Global Value Chains emphasise the necessity of foreign aid to enable poor countries to benefit from global trade and free market opportunities. Neoliberal development approaches have increasingly utilised foreign aid as a tool to facilitate trade in aid-recipient countries and integrate them into global value chains. Aid for Trade initiatives, for instance, aim to enhance the trade capacity and infrastructure of developing countries, thereby enabling them to participate more effectively in international trade. Similarly, the Global Value Chains approach recognises the importance of aid in upgrading production capabilities in poor countries and enhancing their competitiveness in global markets. These approaches acknowledge the structural barriers faced by developing countries and advocate targeted aid interventions to address these challenges. Paradoxical use of aid within neoliberal frameworks reflects a pragmatic acknowledgement of the limitations of market-led development strategies. While neoliberal rhetoric emphasises the virtues of self-reliance and market efficiency, but the realities of global economic dynamics necessitate a more nuanced approach. When strategically deployed, foreign aid can address market failures, alleviate structural constraints, and catalyse inclusive growth. Moreover, aid for trade initiatives aligns with neoliberal goals by promoting market access and enhancing export competitiveness, thereby facilitating the integration of developing countries into the global economy. The paradox of neoliberal development, where foreign aid is criticised in rhetoric but used in practise to foster trade and free-market mechanisms, highlights the complex interplay between ideology and pragmatism in development discourse.&nbsp;While neoliberalism’s emphasis on market-led solutions remains influential, the pragmatic utilisation of aid underscores the need for flexibility and adaptation in responding to the diverse challenges of development. The discrepancy between neoliberal discourse and aid utilisation underscores the inherent tensions within development paradigms. Neoliberalism espouses a minimalist role for the state and emphasises individual agency; however, the practical realities of development often require state intervention and collective action. Similarly, while foreign aid has been critiqued ideologically, its instrumental role in fostering trade and market mechanisms cannot be ignored. Navigating these contradictions requires a pragmatic approach that balances ideological commitments with the imperatives of development effectiveness and poverty reduction.

The Role and Impact of Foreign Aid in Neoliberal Development

Abdullah

Res. Assist. Dr.

Interest Rate-Savings Nexus: Keynesian-Classical Debate Revisiting in OECD Economies

Necati

Şerife

İlkay

Sinan

Selçuk

Legal arrangements for investment incentive systems are among the most important fiscal policy instruments used to increase development. Regardless of the country’s level of development, the aim of incentives is to ensure sustainable economic development and increase the level of welfare. At this point, incentives aim to ensure sustainable economic development, such as ensuring efficient resource allocation, eliminating regional inequalities, creating new employment areas, increasing export potential, increasing foreign investments, ensuring international competitiveness, and closing current account deficits. Regional development definitions emphasise raising the quality of life in developing countries to the level of developed countries in terms of socioeconomic indicators (Keskin, 2022:4). The investment incentive system has been in place in Türkiye for many years. Evaluations and research on the incentive system evaluate these incentives from different perspectives. In particular, the results of the studies show that incentives, an important policy tool for eliminating regional imbalance in Türkiye, have not had a sufficient effect in eliminating imbalance over the years. A major criticism is that the criteria applied to determine the degree of incentives are inadequate and inaccurate.Studies investigating the effectiveness of investment incentives using different methods are available in the literature. The literature on the subject can be analysed in two parts. In the first part, the relationship between investment incentives and macroeconomic variables is investigated. In the second part of the study, survey studies were conducted to determine the effectiveness of incentives.This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of incentives from the perspective of investors, who are the most important stakeholders in investment incentive policies. The survey questions prepared for this evaluation were applied to firms benefiting from incentives in different regions. The expected contribution of this study to the literature is to determine investors’ views on the effectiveness of incentives. The views of investors who implement incentives in the field are thought to be effective in determining incentives’ deficiencies.&nbsp;The data to be used in the evaluation of the Investment Incentive System implemented in Türkiye were collected through a situation assessment questionnaire. The situation assessment questionnaire comprised 48 questions. Of these questions, 21 are demographic questions, 10 are about the effects of incentives on firm activities (5-point Likert type), 16 are about firm opinions on the incentive implementation process (5-point Likert type) and 1 is a comment question. The situation assessment questionnaire was sent online to companies serving in different provinces and in different fields of activity in 6 regions classified according to the Socio-Economic Development Index (SEGE) using the simple random sampling method, and 313 companies responded positively. For the selection of companies to participate in the survey, the Chambers of Industry and Commerce of the provinces selected from these 6 regions were contacted, and the survey questions were sent through the communication channels received. The responses obtained from the surveys were compiled, analysed and interpreted.When the results of the survey are evaluated in general, 72.2% of enterprises benefiting from the incentives have positive effects. In other words, approximately one-third of companies state that they are not positively affected. This is an important rate. It would be appropriate to increase the positive aspects of incentives and take initiatives to eliminate negative aspects. In this context, according to Table 4, institutionalisation increases the positive effects of incentives. Therefore, when offering incentives to firms, setting criteria that will increase their institutionalisation as a prerequisite may be a measure that will increase effectiveness. It was found that the effectiveness of incentives varies across sectors. For example, it is observed that the effectiveness in the agriculture, food, machinery, and textile sectors is higher than the effectiveness in the health, restaurant, and entertainment sectors. Therefore, incentives should be selective rather than generalising in terms of sectors. It is important to take sectoral distinctions into account when directing resources to appropriate and effective areas.The primary effect expected from incentives is to reduce regional imbalances while ensuring economic growth. These two effects are realised together. Otherwise, ignoring regional differences and focusing only on firm growth will increase regional imbalances. On the other hand, incentivizing inefficient sectors to support regional development negatively affects economic growth. In conclusion, according to both the data obtained as a result of the literature review and the results of the survey conducted within the scope of the study; according to investors, the effectiveness of incentives as not at a sufficient level. To increase this level, it is important to review the incentive programme and increase sustainable and permanent effects.&nbsp;

Empirical Application of The Effectiveness of Investment Incentives in Türkiye From The Perspective of Investors

Yağmur

Mehmetsıddık

The net effect of external debt on economic growth is a heavily debated issue. For developing and less developed economies, external debt can provide the necessary capital for economic growth, but it can lead to negative consequences if misused and becomes unsustainable. The effect of external debt can vary depending on a country’s effective management of its economic policies, debt utilisation, and repayment capacity. Therefore, when evaluating the impact of external debt, it is important to consider a careful balancing and sustainability perspective is important to ensure stable and long-term economic growth. Additionally, a country’s dense population can be viewed as a potential labour force and can contribute to economic growth by increasing economic output. On the other hand, foreign trade can stimulate economic growth because it enhances productivity through greater market access and specialisation.The relationship between economic growth and external debt is crucial in modern macroeconomics. Keynes’ principle of the necessity of state intervention for developing countries’ growth forms the basis for external debt theory. Keynes emphasised the importance of external debt in achieving economic growth for many developing countries that have problems in accumulating savings.The growth model, which forms the theoretical basis of Keynes and explains which paths countries should follow in their growth processes, was developed by his colleagues Harrod-Domar, who came after him.External debt growth theory continued with Harrod-Domar’s model, which accepts investments as the primary element of growth. In this model, the importance of external debt in increasing total savings to reach the targeted growth rate is demonstrated. The Harrod-Domar model explains the long-term equilibrium state of aggregate supply and demand at the point at which the investment-saving ratio in a certain period is equalised. According to this model, when countries with insufficient savings accumulate to meet their financing needs through borrowing, investments increase, resulting in high long-term growth rates. Transferring foreign debt to investments generates a significant increase in national income, which also positively impacts domestic savings. Thus,increasing domestic savings will reduce the country’s initial external debt requirements, and sufficient resources will be provided to pay off the existing debt (Mosley et al. 1987).According to the findings obtained from studies by other economists, such as Krugman and Paper, external debt affects economic growth positively initially but negatively after a certain threshold value. Moreover, according to these economists, external debt reduces domestic savings. Krugman (1988) emphasised debt overhang when this value of a country’s potential future resource transfers is lower than its total debt. As external debt stock gradually increases over the long term, investors reduce their return expectations in anticipation of higher tax rates for debt repayment.&nbsp;In this study, we examined how external debt, population growth, and openness to foreign trade affected economic growth in the Turkish economy between 1973 and 2021. The findings indicate that the effects of external debt and population growth rate variables on economic growth are statistically significant and negative. It is observed that the effect of openness on foreign trade is statistically significant and positive. According to the results, a 1% increase in external debt will cause a 1.20% decrease in economic growth. A 1% increase in population growth will cause a 0.51% decrease in economic growth. An increase in openness to foreign trade by 1% has a positive impact on economic growth of 0.50%.The results from the literature are as follows; Uysal et al. (2009), Çelik and Direkçi (2013), and Biçer (2020) found a negative relationship between external debt and growth. Kutlu and Yurttagüler (2016), Yavuzer (2020), Çeştepe et al. (2021), Arslanhan ve Çondur (2022), Kadiroğlu (2023) found this relationship to be positive. Çöğürcü and Çoban (2011), Çevik and Cural (2013), Ağır (2016) concluded that there is no relationship between external debt and growth.In this study, we examined the relationship between economic growth and external debt using various unit root tests. The examination of the unit root processes of the series used in our analysis constitutes the first step of our study. In this step, we used the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests, which are considered conventional unit root tests. Because it is known that conventional unit root tests do not take into account structural breaks and thus give non-stationary results for stationary series, we analysed the series using the Narayan and Popp (2010) unit root test, which takes into account structural breaks. In recent years, the use of nonlinear unit root tests in which the structural break is modelled by Fourier functions has increased considerably. This approach makes it possible to examine the unit root process without assuming the form, number, and date of the structural break. For this reason, the series are finally analysed with the Güriş-Fourier Kruse (2019) unit root test. After this step in which the stationarity levels of the series are determined, the second step, the existence of a long-run relationship between the series is analysed with the ARDL approach. ARDL analysis allows other variables to be I(0) or I(1), provided that the order of the dependent variable is I(1). Therefore, the use of this approach provides an advantage when investigating the existence of long-run relationships between series.Taking these factors into consideration, the main objective of this study is to determine how external debt affects economic growth. In addition to external debt, trade openness and population growth rate are considered effective variables for explaining economic growth. Therefore, we investigate how external debt, trade openness, and population growth influence Turkish economic growth.&nbsp;

Relationship between External Debt and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis of the Turkish Economy

Nimet

In the literature, the relationship between financial development and income inequality is tested through three different hypotheses. The first hypothesis is the Inequality Narrowing Hypothesis by Galor and Zeira (1993), which suggests a negative linear relationship between financial development and income inequality. The second hypothesis is the Inequality Widening Hypothesis, which posits a positive linear relationship between financial development and income inequality. As proposed by Rajan and Zingales (2003), this hypothesis suggests that an increase in financial development intensifies income inequality. The third hypothesis is based on the idea that a reverse U-shaped relationship between financial development and income inequality. Financial Kuznets Hypothesis proposed by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990) is another version of Kuznets’ literature.According to the Financial Kuznets Hypothesis (FKH), access to financial services is limited and costly in the early stages of financial development due to inadequate financial regulations. Consequently, the low-income segment cannot access financial services, whereas the high-income segment can. As a result, the gap between high- and low-income individuals widens (Keskin, 2022). However, in the later stages of economic development, as financial regulations improve, the cost of accessing financial services decreases, and more individuals benefit from these opportunities. Therefore, the income gap between high- and low-income segments narrows, leading to reduced income inequality (Greenwood and Jovanovic, 1990).The mathematical model employed when testing the (FKH) should satisfy specific conditions that determine the shape of the curve (U-shaped, inverted U-shaped, N-shaped, inverted N-shaped) and its turning points. However, when these conditions are met, the empirical model used is validated. In this study, a quadratic model will be utilised for FKH; therefore, only the conditions of the quadratic model will be evaluated. In this case, the empirical model can be validated by examining the sign of the square of the financial development indicator used. To elucidate, we consider the quadratic model expressed by Equation (1):𝑌 = 𝑏0 + 𝑏1𝐹 + 𝑏2𝐹 2 + EHere, Y represents income inequality indicator and F denotes financial development indicator. Equation (1) represents the mathematical form of the (FKH). The first and second derivatives of Equation (1) relative to F are obtained as follows:𝑑𝑌/𝑑𝐹 = 𝑏1 + 2𝑏2F𝑑 2𝑌/𝑑𝐹2 = 2𝑏2Where 𝑏2 &lt; 0 and statistically significant, indicating the presence of a local maximum point and thus an inverted U-shaped relationship, while 𝑏2 &gt; 0 and statistically significant indicates the validity of a U-shaped relationship. However, fulfilling this condition alone is not sufficient to determine the type of relationship. To determine the relationship between income inequality and financial development, Lind and Mehlum (2010) proposed a three-step approach.&nbsp;The first step involves examining the sign and significance of the coefficient, as mentioned above. The second step, the slope between the minimum and maximum values of the data must be sufficiently steep. Lind and Mehlum (2010) developed a new test statistic called the U test based on the Sasabuchi (1980) test for investigating U-shaped and inverted U-shaped relationships. Finally, the third step involves the value of −𝑏1/2𝑏2 represents the turning point. Ensuring that the turning point lies between the minimum and maximum values of the data. When these three conditions are satisfied simultaneously, a U-shaped or inverted U-shaped relationship exists (Hans et al., 2016).It is observed that the three-step method mentioned above for assessing the validity of the mathematical form has not been utilised, when examining the literature on Turkiye. Generally, studies have only evaluated the first step of the three-step method, leading to conclusions about the presence of a U-shaped or inverted U-shaped relationship. In this study, while investigating the relationship between income inequality and financial development, this three-step method is followed. It is believed that this study will contribute to the literature in this regard.&nbsp;The relationship between income inequality and financial development is investigated within the framework of the FKH. The aim is to determine the effects of financial development, inflation, and per capita income variables on income inequality in Turkiye annually from 1987 to 2021. Domestic loans provided by banks to the private sector (%GDP) is considered as a measure of financial development. The Gini coefficient is used as an indicator of income inequality. According to the results obtained from the ARDL bounds test, we conclude that there is co-integration among the variables. In addition, it is found that there is a U-shaped relationship when looking at the long-term coefficients of the financial development variable and its square. However, upon a detailed examination of the conditions that the U-shaped quadratic model should satisfy, it can be concluded that the U-shaped model is valid.

Investigation of Parabolic Relationship Between Financial Development and Income Inequality using U Test: Analysis of Financial Curve in Türkiye

Relationship Between Household Consumption and Disaggregated Wealth Components in OECD Countries: Panel Data Analysis for the Period 2010-2017

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Şule

Öğretim Görevlisi

Elifcan

In the globalized world market, the developments made in the fields of trade and industry are of great importance for countries to achieve economic growth. With this movement, the liberalization of trade positively affected the course of international trade in general. As a result of international trade becoming a competitive factor between countries and companies, logistics attracts attention. In line with these developments, the logistics sector gains a strategic dimension and acts as a lever in the economy in order to ensure the sustainability of international trade in the desired dimensions. The logistics sector is one of the most important sectors that attracts intense attention with its investments in the country’s economy, employment and national income, and the development of it through globalized trading networks. In particular, enterprises and countries aiming to increase their competitiveness have been making significant investments for the development of the sector and have great expectations about the possible returns of the sector. As a result of the investments and the expectations, manufacturing sectors are highly affected by the logistics parameters. In addition to this, the investments made for logistics directly affect the commercial formation of businesses or countries in a positive way and increase the trade volume.The importance of logistics for companies and countries in terms of global trade develops and eventually becomes vital. The importance of logistics may vary for the countries in terms of geographies and logistic opportunities. Especially for the countries who have a coast side and can ensure sea transportation efficiently may gain greater profit. Otherwise, it can be observed that the countries in the same region have similarities in terms of economics and global trade. In this study, the common point in logistics activities and the economic point of view are similar to each other. In order to examine the economic magnitude of the countries and the effect of logistics activities on the economic magnitude of the countries concerned, The impact of the logistics sector on the economies of the 15 Mediterranean coasts was analyzed for the period 1980-2018 using the logistic performance index and gross domestic product values with panel data analysis. The results of the analysis covering the years 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 revealed a moderate positive relationship and 32% of the changes in the gross domestic product could be explained by the logistic performance index. On the other hand the strongest relationship between the gross domestic product and logistics performance index is observed Turkey and Albania. Changes in the value of gross domestic product in Turkey and Albania is explained by the high proportion of logistics performance index. This situation shows the importance of logistics activities in the economic magnitude of the two countries concerned. In addition, it is determined that if countries concentrate heavily on “Infrastructure” and “Customs” activities among the activities constituting the logistic performance index, they may have higher gross domestic product.

The Relationship Between Logistics Activities and the Economy of Mediterranean Countries

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The crisis of 2007-2008 was the largest financial crisis since the 1930s and is characterised by being the deepest, most large scale and severe crisis of its predecessors. Davis and Karim (2008) suggested that the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 was revealed as a surprise for both most of the market participants and policymakers. In the early years of 2007, financial institutions such as the European Central Bank (ECB), BIS and the IMF couldn’t anticipate the severity of the crisis or its scope of the international. The recent financial crisis has triggered significant debates concerning economic theory and policy. The most important discussions focused on the question ‘why was the crisis not foreseen?’. In this context, the question that why the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 is not foreseen is considered in three different perspectives. The first view is that the crisis could not be predicted by economists in general and that the recent financial crisis emerged as a surprise for most of the academicians and policy makers. In this respect, the most important criticism towards the question “Why wasn’t the crisis predicted” is directed to the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. These models include real sector variables except for money supply and interest rates. Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models provide detailed predictions about the real economy. Moreover, the equations that composed in these models do not include finance and banking sectors despite the fact that their failures may turn the general economy upside-down. Therefore, It is indicated that by their nature of these models don’t have the appropriate tools in order to struggle with the financial crisis and a suitable structure that cover the dynamics of the crisis. Considering that the long-term stagnations were due to the balance sheet problems partly in the financial sector as a result of the collapse of asset prices since the late 1980s (Bezemer, 2009: 19), necessitate the inclusion of financial markets to these models. Existing deficiencies in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models emerged along with the global crisis. Thus, since 2016, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began to use a new macroeconomic model called MARTIN (Macroeconomic Relationships for Targeting INflation) in its policy analysis and forecasts. In this respect, the study provides a discussion of the methods used by economists in analysing the economy and formulating their proposals. Within this scope, two explanations can be given to the question of why the 2008 global financial crisis could not be predicted. The first was that the failure of economists to expand these models in a way to cover the risk of crisis or consciously prefer to do not so (Davies and McGoey, 2012). The second explanation is the fact that the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models that widely used today keep the especially financial markets out of the model, underestimated the new financial system created by financial institutions and weaknesses in risk assessment techniques. Considering all these factors, it may help explain the question of why the 2007-2008 global crisis couldn’t be predicted. The second view is that the crisis was predicted by some of the economists, but&nbsp;these predictions were not considered and ignored. As mentioned above, the idea that “no one could foresee the crisis” is a widespread opinion among the public, policymakers, and economists in general. Contrary to this view, although the economist/finance managers who are predicting the crisis warned that predominantly financial globalization, the real estate market of the U.S. and derivative products have significant risks, the question of ignoring why these warnings can be answered with a tendency towards “strategic ignorance”. The last opinion is the approach that economics/economists do not need to predict the crisis. This approach explains in the framework of the efficient market hypothesis and rational expectations that economics or economist does not need to predict the crisis.

2007-2008 Discussions on Predictability of The Global Financial Crisis

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Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi is the publication of Istanbul University Center for Practice and Research in Economic Policy. It is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published biannually in January and July. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English.

The journal targets national and international audiences, has both national and international members in the editorial board, and aims to enhance international author contributions.

Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with issues in economic policy which impact on national and global economies. The journal provides a forum for economic theory and practice, and aims to publish highly selective, widely cited articles of current relevance that will have a long-term impact on economics research.

Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi covers analytical, interpretive, and empirical studies in a number of areas including political economy, monetary theory and policy, fiscal policy, labor economics, development, micro- and macroeconomic theory, international trade and finance, financial economics, transport economics and social economics.

There are no article processing charges or submission fees for any submitted or accepted articles. All expenses of the journal are covered by the Istanbul University.

Halil

RePEc IDEAS

RePEc EconPapers

Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)

EBSCO

ERIH PLUS

TR Dizin

DOAJ

SOBIAD

Cabells Journalytics

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@METRIC_ISSUES

@METRIC_ARTICLES

@METRIC_OPENACCESS

Journal of Economic Policy Researches

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Editor in Chief

Co Editor in Chief

Editorial Assistant

Editorial Management Board Member

Language Editor

Responsible Manager

Publicity Manager

Ethics Editor

Editorial Board Member

@INFO_TAB_BOARDS

Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi is the publication of Istanbul University Center for Practice and Research in Economic Policy. It is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal.Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with issues in economic policy which impact on national and global economies. The journal targets national and international audiences, has both national and international members in the editorial board, and aims to enhance international author contributions.The journal provides a  forum for economic theory and practice and aims  to publish highly selective, widely cited articles of current relevance that will have a long-term impact on economics research.Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi covers analytical, interpretive, and empirical studies in a number of areas—including political economy, monetary theory and policy, fiscal policy, labor economics, development, micro- and macroeconomic theory, international trade and finance, financial economics, transport economics and social economics.

Aim and Scope

<ul><li>TÜBİTAK-ULAKBİM TR Index</li><li>RePEc IDEAS</li><li>RePEc EconPapers</li><li>DOAJ</li><li>ERIH PLUS</li><li>SOBİAD</li><li>EBSCO Business Source Ultimate </li><li>Cabells Journalytics </li><li>Web of Science – Emerging Sources Citation Index</li></ul>

Indexing and Abstracting

The journal is committed to upholding the highest standards of publication ethics and pays regard to Principles of Transparency and Best Practice in Scholarly Publishing published by the <a href="https://publicationethics.org/" target="_blank">Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE)</a>, the <a href="https://doaj.org/apply/transparency/#principles-of-transparency-and-best-practice-in-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)</a>, the <a href="https://oaspa.org/" target="_blank">Open Access Scholarly Publishers Association (OASPA)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.wame.org/" target="_blank">World Association of Medical Editors (WAME)</a> on <a href="https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing</a> The subjects covered in the manuscripts submitted to the Journal for publication must be in accordance with the aim and scope of the Journal. Only those manuscripts approved by every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Changing the name of an author (omission, addition or order) in papers submitted to the Journal requires written permission of all declared authors.Plagiarism, duplication, fraud authorship/denied authorship, research/data fabrication, salami slicing/salami publication, breaching of copyrights, prevailing conflict of interest are unethical behaviors. All manuscripts not in accordance with the accepted ethical standards will be removed from the publication. This also contains any possible malpractice discovered after the publication. Plagiarism Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. If plagiarism/self-plagiarism will be found authors will be informed. Editors may resubmit manuscript for similarity check at any peer-review or production stage if required. High similarity scores may lead to rejection of a manuscript before and even after acceptance. Depending on the type of article and the percentage of similarity score taken from each article, the overall similarity score is generally expected to be less than 15 or 20%. Double Blind Peer-Review After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by the editors-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope. The editor provides a fair double-blind peer review of the submitted articles and hands over the papers matching the formal rules to at least two national/international referees for evaluation and gives green light for publication upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.

Policies

The journal is an open access journal and all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. Except for commercial purposes, users are allowed to read, download, copy, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles in this journal without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. This is in accordance with the <a href="https://www.budapestopenaccessinitiative.org/read" target="_blank">BOAI</a> definition of open access.The open access articles in the journal are licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.en" target="_blank">CC BY-NC 4.0</a>) license.

All expenses of the journal are covered by the Istanbul University. Processing and publication are free of charge with the journal. There is no article processing charges or submission fees for any submitted or accepted articles.

Authors publishing with the journal retain the copyright to their work licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International license (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC 4.0</a>) (<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/</a>  ) and grant the Publisher non-exclusive commercial right to publish the work. CC BY-NC 4.0 license permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Editor should consider publishing correction if minor errors that do not effect the results, interpretations and conclusions of the published paper are detected. Editor should consider retraction if major errors and/or misconduction that invalidate results and conclusions are detected.Editor should consider issuing an expression of concern if there is evidence of research or publication misconduct by the authors; there is evidence that the findings are not reliable and institutions of the authors do not investigate the case or the possible investigation seems to be unfair or nonconclusive. The guidelines of <a href="https://publicationethics.org/resources/flowcharts/complete-set-english" target="_blank">COPE</a> and <a href="https://www.icmje.org/recommendations/" target="_blank">ICJME</a> are taken into consideration regarding correction, retractions or expression of concern.

To guarantee that all papers published in the journal are maintained and permanently accessible, articles are stored in Dergipark which serves as a  national archival web site and at the same time permits LOCKSS to  collect, preserve, and serve the content.Additionally, authors are encouraged to self-archive the final PDF version of their articles in open electronic archives with  that conform to standards of Open Archives Initiative (<a href="https://www.openarchives.org/" target="_blank">https://www.openarchives.org/</a>). Authors should provide a link from the deposited version to the URL of IUPress journal website.

Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi is committed to upholding the highest standards of publication ethics and pays regard to Principles of Transparency and Best Practice in Scholarly Publishing published by the <a href="https://publicationethics.org/" target="_blank">Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE)</a>, the <a href="https://doaj.org/apply/transparency/#principles-of-transparency-and-best-practice-in-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)</a>, the <a href="https://oaspa.org/" target="_blank">Open Access Scholarly Publishers Association (OASPA)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.wame.org/" target="_blank">World Association of Medical Editors (WAME)</a> on <a href="https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing" target="_blank">https://publicationethics.org/resources/guidelines-new/principles-transparency-and-best-practice-scholarly-publishing</a>All submissions must be original, unpublished (including as full text in conference proceedings), and not under the review of any other publication synchronously. Authors must ensure that submitted work is original. They must certify that the manuscript has not previously been published elsewhere or is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere, in any language. Applicable copyright laws and conventions must be followed. Copyright material (e.g. tables, figures or extensive quotations) must be reproduced only with appropriate permission and acknowledgement. Any work or words of other authors, contributors, or sources must be appropriately credited and referenced. Each manuscript is reviewed by one of the editors and at least two referees under double-blind peer review process. Plagiarism, duplication, fraud authorship/denied authorship, research/data fabrication, salami slicing/salami publication, breaching of copyrights, prevailing conflict of interest are unnethical behaviors.All manuscripts not in accordance with the accepted ethical standards will be removed from the publication. This also contains any possible malpractice discovered after the publication.

Ethics

Journal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi adheres to the highest standards in research ethics and follows the principles of international research ethics as defined below. The authors are responsible for the compliance of the manuscripts with the ethical rules.- Principles of integrity, quality and ransparency should be sustained in designing the research, reviewing the design and conducting the research.- The research team and participants should be fully informed about the aim, methods, possible uses and requirements of the research and risks of participation in research.- The confidentiality of the information provided by the research participants and the confidentiality of the respondents should be ensured. The research should be designed to protect the autonomy and dignity of the participants.- Research participants should participate in the research voluntarily, not under any coercion.- Any possible harm to participants must be avoided. The research should be planned in such a way that the participants are not at risk.- The independence of research must be clear; and any conflict of interest or must be disclosed.- In experimental studies with human subjects, written informed consent of the participants who decide to participate in the research must be obtained. In the case of children and those under wardship or with confirmed insanity, legal custodian’s assent must be obtained.- If the study is to be carried out in any institution or organization, approval must be obtained from this institution or organization.- In studies with human subject, it must be noted in the method’s section of the manuscript that the informed consent of the participants and ethics committee approval from the institution where the study has been conducted have been obtained.

It is authors’ responsibility to ensure that the article is in accordance with scientific and ethical standards and rules. And authors must ensure that submitted work is original. They must certify that the manuscript has not previously been published elsewhere or is not currently being considered for publication elsewhere, in any language. Applicable copyright laws and conventions must be followed. Copyright material (e.g. tables, figures or extensive quotations) must be reproduced only with appropriate permission and acknowledgement. Any work or words of other authors, contributors, or sources must be appropriately credited and referenced.All the authors of a submitted manuscript must have direct scientific and academic contribution to the manuscript. The author(s) of the original research articles is defined as a person who is significantly involved in “conceptualization and design of the study”, “collecting the data”, “analyzing the data”, “writing the manuscript”, “reviewing the manuscript with a critical perspective” and “planning/conducting the study of the manuscript and/or revising it”. Fund raising, data collection or supervision of the research group are not sufficient roles to be accepted as an author. The author(s) must meet all these criteria described above. The order of names in the author list of an article must be a co-decision and it must be indicated in the <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>. The individuals who do not meet the authorship criteria but contributed to the study must take place in the acknowledgement section. Individuals providing technical support, assisting writing, providing a general support, providing material or financial support are examples to be indicated in acknowledgement section.All authors must disclose all issues concerning financial relationship, conflict of interest, and competing interest that may potentially influence the results of the research or scientific judgment. When an author discovers a significant error or inaccuracy in his/her own published paper, it is the author’s obligation to promptly cooperate with the Editor-in-Chief to provide retractions or corrections of mistakes.

Editor-in-Chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors. He/She provides a fair double-blind peer review of the submitted articles for publication and ensures that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential before publishing.Editor-in-Chief is responsible for the contents and overall quality of the publication. He/She must publish errata pages or make corrections when needed.Editor-in-Chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers. Only he has the full authority to assign a reviewer and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal.Reviewers must have no conflict of interest with respect to the research, the authors and/or the research funders. Their judgments must be objective.Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side.A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process.The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees must be ensured. In particular situations, the editor may share the review of one reviewer with other reviewers to clarify a particular point.

Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by editor-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope.The editor hands over the papers matching the formal rules to at least two national/international referees for double-blind peer review evaluation and gives green light for publication upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.

Peer Review

Only those manuscripts approved by its every individual author and that were not published before in or sent to another journal, are accepted for evaluation.Submitted manuscripts that pass preliminary control are scanned for plagiarism using iThenticate software. After plagiarism check, the eligible ones are evaluated by editor-in-chief for their originality, methodology, the importance of the subject covered and compliance with the journal scope.  Editor-in-chief evaluates manuscripts for their scientific content without regard to ethnic origin, gender, sexual orientation, citizenship, religious belief or political philosophy of the authors and ensures a fair double-blind peer review of the selected manuscripts.The selected manuscripts are sent to at least two national/international external referees for evaluation and publication decision is given by editor-in-chief  upon modification by the authors in accordance with the referees’ claims.Editor in chief does not allow any conflicts of interest between the authors, editors and reviewers and is responsible for final decision for publication of the manuscripts in the Journal.Reviewers’ judgments must be objective. Reviewers’ comments on the following aspects are expected while conducting the review.-    Does the manuscript contain new and significant information?-    Does the abstract clearly and accurately describe the content of the manuscript?-    Is the problem significant and concisely stated?-    Are the methods described comprehensively?-    Are the interpretations and consclusions justified by the results?-    Is adequate references made to other Works in the field?-    Is the language acceptable?Reviewers must ensure that all the information related to submitted manuscripts is kept as confidential and must report to the editor if they are aware of copyright infringement and plagiarism on the author’s side.A reviewer who feels unqualified to review the topic of a manuscript or knows that its prompt review will be impossible should notify the editor and excuse himself from the review process. The editor informs the reviewers that the manuscripts are confidential information and that this is a privileged interaction. The reviewers and editorial board cannot discuss the manuscripts with other persons. The anonymity of the referees is important.

LanguageThe language of the journal is both Turkish and American English.Manuscript Organization and FormatAll correspondence will be sent to the first-named author unless otherwise specified. Manuscpript is to be submitted online via <a href="http://dergipark.gov.tr/login" target="_blank">http://dergipark.gov.tr/login</a> that can be accessed at <a href="https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/home" target="_blank">https://iupress.istanbul.edu.tr/en/journal/jepr/home</a>. It must be accompanied by a <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/8B20DEB62CBF403F814A12C0F208F32B" target="_blank">title page</a> specifying the article category (i.e. research article, review etc.) and including information about the manuscript (see the Submission Checklist), a cover letter. Manuscripts should be prepared in Microsoft Word 2007 and upper versions. In addition, a <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a> that has to be signed by all authors must be submitted.1. The manuscripts should be in A4 paper standards: having 2.5 cm margins from right, left, bottom and top, Times New Roman font style in 12 font size and line spacing of 1.5 format.2. Footnotes, figures and tables should be placed as much as possible within the page in which they are referred or within the following page. The notes below the figures or tables should be aimed to make these materials understandable without returning to the main text. Tables and Graphics should not be computer output and must fit to A4 paper size.3. Before the introduction part, there should be an abstract of 200-250 words both in English and Turkish. Extended abstract is not required for articles in English. The abstracts should concisely present the aim or the purpose of the study, the methodology, the results, and the conclusion remarks. The abstracts must not contain abbreviations or acronyms. Underneath the abstracts, 5 keywords that inform the reader about the content of the study should be specified in Turkish and in English.4. Submitted manuscripts must involve three JEL code (Journal of Economic Literature) at two digit level (i.e., Q11). For the JEL codes which should be chosen according to the subject of the manuscript, the JEL list given in the web address of <a href="http://www.aeaweb.org/journal/jel_class_system.html" target="_blank">http://www.aeaweb.org/journal/jel_class_system.html</a>  can be used.5. The manuscripts should contain mainly these components: title in English and Turkish, abstract in English and Turkish and keywords in English and Turkish; extended abstract (if the article is in Turkish), sections, footnotes and references.6. Research article sections are ordered as follows: “Introduction”, “Aim and Methodology”, “Findings”, “Discussion and Conclusion”, “Endnotes” and “References”. For review and commentary articles, the article should start with the “Introduction” section where the purpose and the method is mentioned, go on with the other sections; and it should be finished with “Discussion and Conclusion” section followed by “Endnotes”, “References” and “Tables and Figures”.7. Submitted manuscript should contain Turkish and English title of the manuscript, Turkish and English abstracts, Turkish and English keywords, JEL Classification, the main body of the manuscript and references. All should be submitted in one 2007 word document.8. <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/8B20DEB62CBF403F814A12C0F208F32B" target="_blank">Title page</a> including author information must be submitted together with the manuscript. The title page is to include fully descriptive title of the manuscript and authors’ information (affiliation, title, e-mail address, postal address, phone, fax number and ORCID). See The Submission Checklist.9. The responsibility of the articles published in the Journal of Economic Policy Researches belongs to the author.10. In the manuscripts in Turkish, the orthography and writing rules of Turkish Language Association (TDK) should be followed. For detailed information, please go to the web site of TDK: <a href="http://www.tdk.gov.tr/" target="_blank">www.tdk.gov.tr</a>. Instead of foreign words, usage of Turkish words should be preferred. In case of using new or unfamiliar Turkish words, the English equivalent can be provided in parenthesis in the first occurrence.11. All manuscripts submitted in English language, and all English parts of the Turkish manuscripts should be edited professionally before submission.  Apart from its content, some of the manuscripts which are poor in language usage are returned/ rejected.12. Communication regarding manuscript submission and evaluation procedure is done via e-mail.13. For information regarding citations and reference format, please see References section.

Author Guidelines

Although references to review articles can be an efficient way to guide readers to a body of literature, review articles do not always reflect original work accurately. Readers should therefore be provided with direct references to original research sources whenever possible. On the other hand, extensive lists of references to original work on a topic can use excessive space on the printed page. Small numbers of references to key original papers often serve as well as more exhaustive lists, particularly since references can now be added to the electronic version of published papers, and since electronic literature searching allows readers to retrieve published literature efficiently. Papers accepted but not yet included in the issue are published online in the Early View section and they should be cited as “advance online publication”. Citing a “personal communication” should be avoided unless it provides essential information not available from a public source, in which case the name of the person and date of communication should be cited in parentheses in the text. For scientific articles, written permission and confirmation of accuracy from the source of a personal communication must be obtained. Accuracy of citation is the author’s responsibility. All references should be cited in text. Reference list must be in alphabetical order.Reference Style and FormatJournal of Economic Policy Researches - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi complies with APA (American Psychological Association)  style 6th Edition for referencing and quoting. For more information:- American Psychological Association. (2010). Publication manual of the American PsychologicalAssociation (6th ed.). Washington, DC: APA.- <a href="http://www.apastyle.org" target="_blank">http://www.apastyle.org</a>Accuracy of citation is the author’s responsibility. All references should be cited in text. Reference list must be in alphabetical order. Type references in the style shown below.Citations in the TextCitations must be indicated with the author surname and publication year within the parenthesis. If more than one citation is made within the same paranthesis, separate them with (;).Samples:More than one citation;(Esin et al., 2002; Karasar, 1995)Citation with one author;(Akyolcu, 2007)Citation with two authors;(Sayıner &amp; Demirci, 2007)Citation with three, four, five authors;First citation in the text: (Ailen, Ciambrune, &amp; Welch, 2000) Subsequent citations in the text: (Ailen et al., 2000)Citations with more than six authors;(Çavdar et al., 2003)Citations in the ReferenceAll the citations done in the text should be listed in the References section in alphabetical order of author surname without numbering. Below given examples should be considered in citing the references.Basic Reference TypesBooka) Turkish BookKarasar, N. (1995). Araştırmalarda rapor hazırlama (8th ed.) [Preparing research reports]. Ankara, Turkey: 3A Eğitim Danışmanlık Ltd.b) Book Translated into TurkishMucchielli, A. (1991). Zihniyetler [Mindsets] (A. Kotil, Trans.). İstanbul, Turkey: İletişim Yayınları.c) Edited BookÖren, T., Üney, T., &amp; Çölkesen, R. (Eds.). (2006). Türkiye bilişim ansiklopedisi [Turkish Encyclopedia of Informatics]. İstanbul, Turkey: Papatya Yayıncılık.d) Turkish Book with Multiple AuthorsTonta, Y., Bitirim, Y., &amp; Sever, H. (2002). Türkçe arama motorlarında performans değerlendirme [Performance evaluation in Turkish search engines]. Ankara, Turkey: Total Bilişim.e) Book in EnglishKamien R., &amp; Kamien A. (2014). Music: An appreciation. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Education.f) Chapter in an Edited BookBassett, C. (2006). Cultural studies and new media. In G. Hall &amp; C. Birchall (Eds.), New cultural studies: Adventures in theory (pp. 220–237). Edinburgh, UK: Edinburgh University Press.g) Chapter in an Edited Book in TurkishErkmen, T. (2012). Örgüt kültürü: Fonksiyonları, öğeleri, işletme yönetimi ve liderlikteki önemi [Organization culture: Its functions, elements and importance in leadership and business management]. In M. Zencirkıran (Ed.), Örgüt sosyolojisi [Organization sociology] (pp. 233–263). Bursa, Turkey: Dora Basım Yayın.h) Book with the same organization as author and publisherAmerican Psychological Association. (2009). Publication manual of the American psychological association (6th ed.). Washington, DC: Author.Articlea) Turkish ArticleMutlu, B., &amp; Savaşer, S. (2007). Çocuğu ameliyat sonrası yoğun bakımda olan ebeveynlerde stres nedenleri ve azaltma girişimleri [Source and intervention reduction of stress for parents whose children are in intensive care unit after surgery]. Istanbul University Florence Nightingale Journal of Nursing, 15(60), 179–182.b) English Articlede Cillia, R., Reisigl, M., &amp; Wodak, R. (1999). The discursive construction of national identity. Discourse and Society, 10(2), 149–173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0957926599010002002c) Journal Article with DOI and More Than Seven AuthorsLal, H., Cunningham, A. L., Godeaux, O., Chlibek, R., Diez-Domingo, J., Hwang, S.-J. ... Heineman, T. C. (2015). Efficacy of an adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine in older adults. New England Journal of Medicine, 372, 2087–2096. http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1501184d) Journal Article from Web, without DOISidani, S. (2003). Enhancing the evaluation of nursing care effectiveness. Canadian Journal of Nursing Research, 35(3), 26–38. Retrieved from http://cjnr.mcgill.cae) Journal Article wih DOITurner, S. J. (2010). Website statistics 2.0: Using Google Analytics to measure library website effectiveness. Technical Services Quarterly, 27, 261–278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07317131003765910f) Advance Online PublicationSmith, J. A. (2010). Citing advance online publication: A review. Journal of Psychology. Advance online publication. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a45d7867g) Article in a MagazineHenry, W. A., III. (1990, April 9). Making the grade in today’s schools. Time, 135, 28–31.Doctoral Dissertation, Master’s Thesis, Presentation, Proceedinga) Dissertation/Thesis from a Commercial DatabaseVan Brunt, D. (1997). Networked consumer health information systems (Doctoral dissertation). Available from ProQuest Dissertations and Theses database. (UMI No. 9943436)b) Dissertation/Thesis from an Institutional DatabaseYaylalı-Yıldız, B. (2014). University campuses as places of potential publicness: Exploring the politicals, social and cultural practices in Ege University (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from http://library.iyte.edu.tr/tr/hizli-erisim/iyte-tez-portalic) Dissertation/Thesis from WebTonta, Y. A. (1992). An analysis of search failures in online library catalogs (Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Berkeley). Retrieved from http://yunus.hacettepe.edu.tr/~tonta/yayinlar /phd/ickapak.htmld) Dissertation/Thesis abstracted in Dissertations Abstracts InternationalAppelbaum, L. G. (2005). Three studies of human information processing: Texture amplifica&#173;tion, motion representation, and figure-ground segregation. Dissertation Abstracts International: Section B. Sciences and Engineering, 65(10), 5428.e) Symposium ContributionKrinsky-McHale, S. J., Zigman, W. B., &amp; Silverman, W. (2012, August). Are neuropsychiatric symptoms markers of prodromal Alzheimer’s disease in adults with Down syndrome? In W. B. Zigman (Chair), Predictors of mild cognitive impairment, dementia, and mortality in adults with Down syndrome. Symposium conducted at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Orlando, FL.f) Conference Paper Abstract Retrieved OnlineLiu, S. (2005, May). Defending against business crises with the help of intelligent agent based early warning solutions. Paper presented at the Seventh International Conference on Enterprise Information Systems, Miami, FL. Abstract retrieved from http://www.iceis.org/iceis2005/abstracts_2005.htmg) Conference Paper - In Regularly Published Proceedings and Retrieved OnlineHerculano-Houzel, S., Collins, C. E., Wong, P., Kaas, J. H., &amp; Lent, R. (2008). The basic nonuniformity of the cerebral cortex. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 12593–12598. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805417105h) Proceeding in Book FormParsons, O. A., Pryzwansky, W. B., Weinstein, D. J., &amp; Wiens, A. N. (1995). Taxonomy for psychology. In J. N. Reich, H. Sands, &amp; A. N. Wiens (Eds.), Education and training beyond the doctoral degree: Proceedings of the American Psychological Association National Conference on Postdoctoral Education and Training in Psychology (pp. 45–50). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.i) Paper PresentationNguyen, C. A. (2012, August). Humor and deception in advertising: When laughter may not be the best medicine. Paper presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Orlando, FL.Other Sourcesa) Newspaper ArticleBrowne, R. (2010, March 21). This brainless patient is no dummy. Sydney Morning Herald, 45.b) Newspaper Article with no AuthorNew drug appears to sharply cut risk of death from heart failure. (1993, July 15). The Washington Post, p. A12.c) Web Page/Blog PostBordwell, D. (2013, June 18). David Koepp: Making the world movie-sized [Web log post]. Retrieved from http://www.davidbordwell.net/blog/page/27/d) Online Encyclopedia/DictionaryIgnition. (1989). In Oxford English online dictionary (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://dictionary.oed. comMarcoux, A. (2008). Business ethics. In E. N. Zalta (Ed.). The Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. Retrieved from http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ethics-business/e) PodcastDunning, B. (Producer). (2011, January 12). inFact: Conspiracy theories [Video podcast]. Retrieved from http://itunes.apple.com/f) Single Episode in a Television SeriesEgan, D. (Writer), &amp; Alexander, J. (Director). (2005). Failure to communicate. [Television series episode]. In D. Shore (Executive producer), House; New York, NY: Fox Broadcasting.g) MusicFuchs, G. (2004). Light the menorah. On Eight nights of Hanukkah [CD]. Brick, NJ: Kid Kosher.

<a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a><a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/FileHandler2.ashx?f=titlepagetemplate_jepr.docx" target="_blank">Title page</a><a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/8BFBB25D979E48EABE10B7FB4A99D013" target="_blank">Author Form</a><ul></ul>

Ensure that the following items are present:● Cover letter<ul><li>The category of the manuscript</li><li>CV(s) of the author(s)</li><li>Confirming that “the paper is not under consideration for publication in another journal”. </li><li>Including disclosure of any commercial or financial involvement.</li><li>Confirming that the statistical design of the research article is reviewed.</li><li>Confirming that last control for fluent English was done.</li><li>Confirming that journal policies detailed in Information for Authors have been reviewed.</li><li>Confirming that the references cited in the text and listed in the references section are in line with APA 6.</li></ul>● <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/F5F89BC14F7B438A9F9868CB9C978265" target="_blank">Copyright Agreement Form</a>● Permission of previous published material if used in the present manuscript● <a href="https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/FileHandler2.ashx?f=titlepagetemplate_jepr.docx" target="_blank">Title page</a><ul><li>The category of the manuscript</li><li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li><li>All authors’ names and affiliations (institution, faculty/department, city, country), e-mail addresses</li><li>Corresponding author’s email address, full postal address, telephone and fax number</li><li>ORCIDs of all authors.</li></ul>● Main Manuscript Document<ul><li>The title of the manuscript both in Turkish and in English</li><li>Abstracts (200-250 words) both in Turkish and in English</li><li>Key words: 5 words both in Turkish and in English</li><li>JEL code: 3 JEL codes</li><li>Extended Abstract (600-800 words) in English (if the article is in Turkish)</li><li>Main article sections</li><li>Grant support (if exists)</li><li>Conflict of interest (if exists)</li><li>Acknowledgement (if exists)</li><li>References</li><li>All tables, illustrations (figures) (including title, description, footnotes)</li></ul>

Issue Type	Regular
Editor(s)	Ahmet İncekara
Full Text (PDF)

Journal of Economic Policy Researches

VOLUME 6, ISSUE 1, 2019

Tariff Disadvantages of SMEs in International Trade

DETERMINANTS OF NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE

DECISIONS OF THE POWERFUL CAPITALISTS AND UNCERTAINTY: A RATIONAL EXPECTATION APPROACH

FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Economic Freedom

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