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DOI :10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077   IUP :10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077    Full Text (PDF)

CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS

Elif Kartal, Mehmet Erdal Balaban, Bülent Bayraktar

Objective: In this study, it is aimed to provide a dynamic structure to the summary status and analysis results based on the current COVID-19 data of the countries based on changing status of global COVID-19 outbreak in the world and in Turkey; thus, to support fast and proactive decisions. In this scope, to define COVID-19 based on data, an online R-Shiny application is developed (https://elifkartal.shinyapps.io/covid19/). Material and Method: In this study, CRoss-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining - CRISP-DM is used as the study method. The changing situation of COVID-19 in global and national dimensions was evaluated. New variables are calculated such as Linear Change Rate (LCR), Exponential Growth Coefficient (EGC), and required days to double cases. Cluster analysis was performed by applying the k-Means data mining algorithm to the data reinforced with the new variables and similarities of countries were determined. The countries closest to the cluster average are accepted as cluster centers and the countries in the same cluster are ranked according to their distance from the cluster center. Results: One of the most important findings of the study is that the trends of LCR and EGC are the same. As such, it can be said that COVID-19 does not display an exponential behavior or can be controlled. With the developed application, the countries in which the cluster is located, regardless of their geographical location and dynamically according to time, the possible risk situations and similarities of the countries in the same cluster have been determined more precisely. Conclusion: With this study and the application developed; depending on changing status of global COVID-19 outbreak in the world and in Turkey, a dynamic structure has been given to the summary status and analysis results based on the current COVID-19 data of the countries, thus, it has been provided to support fast and proactive decisions. 

Keywords: COVID-19, Corona virus, clustering, data mining, descriptive statistics
DOI :10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077   IUP :10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077    Full Text (PDF)

KÜRESEL COVID-19 SALGINININ DÜNYADA VE TÜRKİYE’DE DEĞİŞEN DURUMU VE KÜMELEME ANALİZİ

Elif Kartal, Mehmet Erdal Balaban, Bülent Bayraktar

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı; küresel COVID-19 salgınının dünyada ve Türkiye’de değişen durumuna bağlı olarak ülkelere ait güncel COVID-19 verisine dayalı özet durum ve analiz sonuçlarına dinamik yapı kazandırılması, böylelikle hızlı ve proaktif kararlara destek verilebilmesidir. Bu kapsamda, COVID-19’u veriye dayalı olarak tanımlamak amacıyla öncelikle çevrimiçi bir R-Shiny uygulaması geliştirilmiştir (https://elifkartal.shinyapps.io/covid19/). Gereç ve Yöntem: Bu çalışmada yöntem olarak Veri Madenciliği için Çapraz Endüstri Standart Süreç Modeli (CRoss-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining - CRISP-DM) kullanılmıştır. Küresel ve ülkesel boyutta COVID-19’un değişen durumu değerlendirilmiştir. Doğrusal Değişim Oranı (DDO), Üstel Büyüme Katsayısı (ÜBK) ve vaka sayısının ikiye katlanması için gereken gün sayısı gibi yeni değişkenler hesaplanmıştır. Böylece, yeni değişkenlerle güçlendirilen veriye k-Ortalamalar veri madenciliği algoritması uygulanarak kümeleme analizi yapılmış ve ülkelerin benzerlikleri belirlenmiştir. Küme ortalamasına en yakın ülkeler küme merkezi olarak kabul edilmiş, aynı kümedeki ülkeler küme merkezine olan uzaklıklarına göre sıralanmıştır. Bulgular: Çalışmanın en önemli bulgularından biri ÜBK ve DDO eğilimlerinin aynı olmasıdır. Bu haliyle COVID-19’un salgın özelliği olarak kabul edilen üstel bir davranış göstermediği veya kontrol altına alınabildiği söylenebilecektir. Geliştirilen uygulamayla ülkelerin, coğrafi konumlarından bağımsız ve zamana göre dinamik bir biçimde, hangi kümede yer aldığı, aynı kümedeki ülkelerin olası risk durumları ve benzerlikleri daha hassas biçimde belirlenmiştir. Sonuç: Bu çalışma ve geliştirilen uygulama ile; küresel COVID-19 salgınının dünyada ve Türkiye’de değişen durumuna bağlı olarak ülkelere ait güncel COVID-19 verisine dayalı özet durum ve analiz sonuçlarına dinamik yapı kazandırılmış, böylelikle hızlı ve proaktif kararlara destek verilebilmesi sağlanmıştır

Keywords: COVID-19, Korona virüsü, kümeleme, veri madenciliği, tanımlayıcı istatistik

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APA

Kartal, E., Balaban, M.E., & Bayraktar, B. (2021). CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS. Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, 84(1), 9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077


AMA

Kartal E, Balaban M E, Bayraktar B. CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS. Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine. 2021;84(1):9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077


ABNT

Kartal, E.; Balaban, M.E.; Bayraktar, B. CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS. Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, [Publisher Location], v. 84, n. 1, p. 9-19, 2021.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Kartal, Elif, and Mehmet Erdal Balaban and Bülent Bayraktar. 2021. “CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS.” Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine 84, no. 1: 9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077


Chicago: Humanities Style

Kartal, Elif, and Mehmet Erdal Balaban and Bülent Bayraktar. “CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS.” Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine 84, no. 1 (Apr. 2024): 9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077


Harvard: Australian Style

Kartal, E & Balaban, ME & Bayraktar, B 2021, 'CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS', Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, vol. 84, no. 1, pp. 9-19, viewed 30 Apr. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Kartal, E. and Balaban, M.E. and Bayraktar, B. (2021) ‘CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS’, Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, 84(1), pp. 9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077 (30 Apr. 2024).


MLA

Kartal, Elif, and Mehmet Erdal Balaban and Bülent Bayraktar. “CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS.” Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, vol. 84, no. 1, 2021, pp. 9-19. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077


Vancouver

Kartal E, Balaban ME, Bayraktar B. CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS. Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine [Internet]. 30 Apr. 2024 [cited 30 Apr. 2024];84(1):9-19. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077 doi: 10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077


ISNAD

Kartal, Elif - Balaban, MehmetErdal - Bayraktar, Bülent. “CHANGING STATUS OF GLOBAL COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN THE WORLD AND IN TURKEY AND CLUSTERING ANALYSIS”. Journal of Istanbul Faculty of Medicine 84/1 (Apr. 2024): 9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/IUITFD.2020.0077



TIMELINE


Submitted12.06.2020
Accepted24.06.2020
Published Online23.07.2020

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