Research Article


DOI :10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959   IUP :10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959    Full Text (PDF)

Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries

Mehmet Emre Ünsal

This study investigates the drivers of CO2 emissions in developing countries, with emphasis on the nexus role exerted by key economic variables such as inflation, FDI, energy use, and trade openness. This is a panel study covering 1990-2020 for nine developing countries: Brazil, India, Türkiye, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Due to heteroscedasticity detection, the method Huber-Eicker-White is used for estimation to estimate the coefficients correctly. The results indicate that FDI, energy use, and openness to trade significantly positively influence CO2 emissions. In contrast, inflation significantly influences CO2 emissions negatively. Considering that FDI, investment, energy use, and trade openness have a positive effect on CO2 emissions, governments are always encouraged to focus on energy efficiency and renewable energy transitions by offering incentives. Inversely, the negative relationship between inflation and carbon dioxide emissions indicates that using inflationary periods as an opportunity to adopt green technology.


PDF View

References

  • Adusah-Poku, F. (2016). Carbon dioxide emissions, urbanization and population: Empirical evidence in SUB Saharan Africa. EnergY Economics Letters, 3(i), 1-16. google scholar
  • Afesorgbor, S. K., & Demena, B. A. (2022). Trade openness and environmental emissions: Evidence from a meta-analYsis. Environmental and Resource Economics, 81(2), 287- 321. google scholar
  • Ahmad, W., Ullah, S., Ozturk, I., & Majeed, M. T. (2021). Does inflation instability affect environmental pollution? Fresh evidence from Asian economies. Energy & Environment, 32(7), 1275-1291. google scholar
  • Al-Mulali, U., Fereidouni, H. G., Lee, J. Y., & Sab, C. N. B. C. (2013). Exploring the relationship between urbanization, energY consumption, and CO2 emission in MENA countries. Renewable and Sustainable EnergY Reviews, 23, 107-112. google scholar
  • Andersson, F. N., & Karpestam, P. (2013). CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short-and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity. Energy PoIİcy, 61, 1285-1294. google scholar
  • Apergis, N., & PaYne, J. E. (2010). The emissions, energy consumption, and growth nexus: evidence from the commonwealth of indepen-dent states. Energy PoIİcy, 38(i), 650-655. google scholar
  • Archer, D., EbY, M., Brovkin, V., Ridgwell, A., Cao, L., Mikolajewicz, U., Caldeira, K., Matsumoto, K., Munhoven, G., Montenegro, A., & Tokos, K. (2009). Atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel carbon dioxide. Annual Review of Earth and PlanetarY Sciences, 37, 117-134. google scholar
  • Arzaghi, M., & Squalli, J. (2023). The environmental impact of fossil fuel subsidy policies. EnergY Economics, 126, 106980. google scholar
  • Asumadu-Sarkodie, S., & Owusu, P. A. (2016). Carbon dioxide emission, electricity consumption, industrialization, and economic growth nexus: The Beninese case. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and PoIİcy, 11 (il), 1089-1096. google scholar
  • Bayraktar, Y., Koc, K., Toprak, M., Ozyılmaz, A., Olgun, M. F., Balsalobre-Lorente, D., & Soylu, O. B. (2023). Convergence of per capita ecological footprint among BRICS-T countries: evidence from Fourier unit root test. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(22), 63022-63035. google scholar
  • Blanco, L., Gonzalez, F., & Ruiz, I. (2013). The impact of FDI on CO2 emissions in Latin America. Oxford Development Studies, 41 (i), 104-121. google scholar
  • Chen, P. Y., Chen, S. T., Hsu, C. S., & Chen, C. C. (2016). Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energY consumption and CO2 emissions. Renewable and Sustainable EnergY Reviews, 65, 420-431. google scholar
  • Danish, Ulucak, R., & Khan, S. U. D. (2020). Relationship between energY intensitY and CO2 emissions: does economic policY matter?. Sustainable Development, 28(5), 1457-1464. google scholar
  • Dauda, L., Long, X., Mensah, C. N., Salman, M., Boamah, K. B., Ampon-Wireko, S., & Dogbe, C. S. K. (2021). Innovation, trade openness and CO2 emissions in selected countries in Africa. Journal of Cleaner Production, 281, 125143. google scholar
  • Dehdar, F., Silva, N., Fuinhas, J. A., Koengkan, M., & Nazeer, N. (2022). The impact of technologY and government policies on OECD carbon dioxide emissions. Energies, 15(22), 8486. google scholar
  • Dixon, T., & Romanak, K. D. (2015). Improving monitoring protocols for CO2 geological storage with technical advances in CO2 attribution monitoring. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 41, 29-40. google scholar
  • Dong, C., Dong, X., Jiang, Q., Dong, K., & Liu, G. (2018). What is the probabilitY of achieving the carbon dioxide emission targets of the Paris Agreement? Evidence from the top ten emitters. Selence of the Total Envlronment, 622, 1294-1303. google scholar
  • Dong, F., Wang, Y., Su, B., Hua, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2019). The process of peak CO2 emissions in developed economies: A perspective of industrialization and urbanization. Resources, Conservatlon and Recycllng, 141, 61-75. google scholar
  • Dou, Y., Zhao, J., Malik, M. N., & Dong, K. (2021). Assessing the impact of trade openness on CO2 emissions: evidence from China-Japan-ROK FTA countries. Journal of envlronmental management, 296, 113241. google scholar
  • Du, K., Li, P., & Yan, Z. (2019). Do green technologY innovations contribute to carbon dioxide emission reduction? Empirical evidence from patent data. Technologlcal Forecastlng and Soclal Change, 146, 297-303. google scholar
  • Essandoh, O. K., Islam, M., & Kakinaka, M. (2020). Linking international trade and foreign direct investment to CO2 emissions: anY differences between developed and developing countries?. Sclence of the Total Envlronment, 712, 136437. google scholar
  • Fan, J. L., Wang, Q., Yu, S., Hou, Y. B., & Wei, Y. M. (2017). The evolution of CO2 emissions in international trade for major economies: a perspeetive from the global supplY chain. Mltlgatlon and adaptatlon strategles for global change, 22, 1229-1248. google scholar
  • Fan, J. L., Zhang, X., Wang, J. D., & Wang, Q. (2021). Measuring the impacts of international trade on carbon emissions intensitY: a global value chain perspeetive. Emerglng Markets Flnance and Trade, 57(4), 972-988. google scholar
  • Gonzâlez-Âlvarez, M. A., & Montanes, A. (2023). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth: Determining the stabilitY of the 3E relationship. Economlc Modelllng, 121, 106195. google scholar
  • Grolleau, G., & Weber, C. (2024). The effect of inflation on CO2 emissions: An analYsis över the period 1970-2020. Ecologlcal Economlcs, 217, 108029. google scholar
  • Halkos, G. E., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2013). Carbon dioxide emissions and governance: a nonparametric analYsis for the G-20. Energy Economlcs, 40, 110-118. google scholar
  • Hanif, I. (2018). Impact of fossil fuels energy consumption, energy policies, and urban sprawl on carbon emissions in East Asia and the Pacific: A panel investigation. Energy strategy revlews, 21, 16-24. google scholar
  • Haug, A. A., & Ucal, M. (2019). The role of trade and FDI for CO2 emissions in TurkeY: Nonlinear relationships. Energy Economlcs, 81, 297-307. google scholar
  • Jaforullah, M., & King, A. (2015). Does the use of renewable energy sources mitigate CO2 emissions? A reassessment of the US evidence. Energy Economlcs, 49, 711-717. google scholar
  • Karedla, Y., Mishra, R., & Patel, N. (2021). The impact of economic growth, trade openness and manufacturing on CO2 emissions in India: an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds test approach. Journal of Economlcs, Flnance and Admlnlstratlve Sclence, 26(52), 376-389. google scholar
  • Khan, I., Tan, D., Azam, W., & Hassan, S. T. (2022). Alternate energY sources and environmental qualitY: The impact of inflation dYnamics. Gondwana Research, 106, 51-63. google scholar
  • Khan, I., Zhong, R., Khan, H., Dong, Y., & NuÇâ, F. M. (2023). Examining the relationship between technological innovation, economic growth and carbon dioxide emission: DYnamic panel data evidence. Envlronment, Development and Sustalnablllty, 1-20. google scholar
  • Khan, M., Rana, A. T., & Ghardallou, W. (2023). FDI and CO2 emissions in developing countries: the role of human capital. Natural Hazards, 117(i), 1125-1155. google scholar
  • Kuang, H., Akmal, Z., & Li, F. (2022). Measuring the effects of green technologY innovations and renewable energY investment for reducing carbon emissions in China. Renewable Energy, 197, 1-10. google scholar
  • Long, X., Naminse, E. Y., Du, J., & Zhuang, J. (2015). Nonrenewable energy, renewable energy, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in China from 1952 to 2012. Renewable and Sustalnable Energy Revlews, 52, 680-688. google scholar
  • Mahmood, H., Maalel, N., & Zarrad, O. (2019). Trade openness and CO2 emissions: Evidence from Tunisia. Sustalnablllty, 11(12), 3295. google scholar
  • Mbassi, C. M., HYoba, S. E. C., & Shahbaz, M. (2023). Does monetarY policY reallY matter for environmental protection? The case of inflation targeting. Research ln Economlcs, 77(3), 427-452. google scholar
  • Munksgaard, J., Pedersen, K. A., & Wien, M. (2000). Impact of Household consumption on CO2 emissions. Energy economlcs, 22(4), 423-440. google scholar
  • Musarat, M. A., Alaloul, W. S., Liew, M. S., Maqsoom, A., & Qureshi, A. H. (2021). The effect of inflation rate on CO2 emission: a framework for MalaYsian construction industrY. Sustainability, 13(3), 1562. google scholar
  • Mutascu, M. (2018). A time-frequency analYsis of trade openness and CO2 emissions in France. Energy policy, 115, 443-455. google scholar
  • Myszczyszyn, J., & Supron, B. (2021). Relationship among economic growth (GDP), EnergY consumption and carbon dioxide emission: Evidence from V4 Countries. Energies, 14(22), 7734. google scholar
  • Namahoro, J. P., Wu, Q., Zhou, N., & Xue, S. (2021). Impact of energY intensitY, renewable energY, and economic growth on CO2 emissions: Evidence from Africa across regions and income levels. Renewable and Sustainable EnergY Reviews, 147, 111233. google scholar
  • Neves, S. A., Marques, A. C., & Patrîcio, M. (2020). Determinants of CO2 emissions in European Union countries: does environmental regulation reduce environmental pollution?. Economic Analysis and Policy, 68, 114-125. google scholar
  • O’Neill, B. C., Liddle, B., Jiang, L., Smith, K. R., Pachauri, S., Dalton, M., & Fuchs, R. (2012). Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions. The Lancet, 380(9837), 157-164. google scholar
  • OzYİlmaz, A., BaYraktar, Y., & Olgun, M. F. (2023). Effects of public expenditures on environmental pollution: evidence from G-7 countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(30), 75183-75194. google scholar
  • Paraschiv, S., & Paraschiv, L. S. (2020). Trends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels combustion (coal, gas and oil) in the EU member states from 1960 to 2018. Energy Reports, 6, 237-242. google scholar
  • Rehan, R., & Nehdi, M. (2005). Carbon dioxide emissions and climate change: policY implications for the cement industrY. Environmental Science & Policy, 8(2), 105-114. google scholar
  • Salam, M. A., & Noguchi, T. (2005). Impact of human activities on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions: A statistical analYsis. Environmen-talist, 25, 19-30. google scholar
  • Shafiei, S., & Salim, R. A. (2014). Non-renewable and renewable energY consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD countries: a comparative analYsis. Energy policy, 66, 547-556. google scholar
  • Sharma, S. S. (2011). Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: empirical evidence from 69 countries. Applied energy, 88(i), 376-382. google scholar
  • Shpak, N., Ohinok, S., KulYniak, I., Sroka, W., Fedun, Y., Ginevicius, R., & CYgler, J. (2022). CO2 emissions and macroeconomic indicators: AnalYsis of the most polluted regions in the world. Energies, 15(8), 2928. google scholar
  • Sung, B., Song, W. Y., & Park, S. D. (2018). How foreign direct investment affects CO2 emission levels in the Chinese manufacturing industrY: evidence from panel data. Economic Systems, 42(2), 320-331. google scholar
  • Tajudeen, I. A., Wossink, A., & Banerjee, P. (2018). How significant is energY efficiencY to mitigate CO2 emissions? Evidence from OECD countries. Energy Economics, 72, 200- 221. google scholar
  • Tatoğlu Yerdelen, F. (2013). Panel veri ekonometrisi Stata uYgulamalı. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayın. google scholar
  • Timilsina, G. R., & Shrestha, A. (2009). Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: UnderlYing factors and policY options. Energy policy, 37(11), 4523-4539. google scholar
  • Tsaurai, K. (2020). Exploring the macroeconomic determinants of carbon emissions in transitional economies: A panel data analYsis approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(6), 536-544. google scholar
  • Wang, S., Li, Q., Fang, C., & Zhou, C. (2016). The relationship between economic growth, energY consumption, and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from China. Science of the Total Environment, 542, 360-371. google scholar
  • Xie, Q., Wang, X., & Cong, X. (2020). How does foreign direct investment affect CO2 emissions in emerging countries? New findings from a nonlinear panel analYsis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 249, 119422. google scholar
  • Zhang, N., Yu, K., & Chen, Z. (2017). How does urbanization affect carbon dioxide emissions? A cross-country panel data analYsis. Energy Policy, 107, 678-687. google scholar
  • Zhou, X., Zhang, J., & Li, J. (2013). Industrial structural transformation and carbon dioxide emissions in China. Energy policy, 57, 43-51. google scholar

Citations

Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the options to export in your chosen format


EXPORT



APA

Ünsal, M.E. (2025). Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 34(1), 71-85. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959


AMA

Ünsal M E. Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences. 2025;34(1):71-85. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959


ABNT

Ünsal, M.E. Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, [Publisher Location], v. 34, n. 1, p. 71-85, 2025.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Ünsal, Mehmet Emre,. 2025. “Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 34, no. 1: 71-85. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959


Chicago: Humanities Style

Ünsal, Mehmet Emre,. Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 34, no. 1 (Apr. 2025): 71-85. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959


Harvard: Australian Style

Ünsal, ME 2025, 'Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries', Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 71-85, viewed 25 Apr. 2025, https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Ünsal, M.E. (2025) ‘Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries’, Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 34(1), pp. 71-85. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959 (25 Apr. 2025).


MLA

Ünsal, Mehmet Emre,. Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries.” Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, vol. 34, no. 1, 2025, pp. 71-85. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959


Vancouver

Ünsal ME. Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences [Internet]. 25 Apr. 2025 [cited 25 Apr. 2025];34(1):71-85. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959 doi: 10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959


ISNAD

Ünsal, MehmetEmre. Effects of Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries”. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences 34/1 (Apr. 2025): 71-85. https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2025.34.1536959



TIMELINE


Submitted21.08.2024
Accepted13.11.2024
Published Online11.04.2025

LICENCE


Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.


SHARE




Istanbul University Press aims to contribute to the dissemination of ever growing scientific knowledge through publication of high quality scientific journals and books in accordance with the international publishing standards and ethics. Istanbul University Press follows an open access, non-commercial, scholarly publishing.