Migration refers to human movements across geographical boundaries (DPhil, 2000: 7). There are several push-and-pull factors affecting migration. The push factors include low agricultural productivity, lack of employment opportunities, low wages, regional conflict, and natural disasters. The pull factors include urbanization, better employment potential, better working and living conditions, industrialization, and a safer environment. In 2017, the number of international migrants rose to 257 million worldwide, making up 3.4 percent of the world’s population (UN (a), 2018). 

Population aging means “the process of change in the population’s age group structure, in the sense of an increase in the elderly group’s ratio to the detriment of the young group, as a visible and long-term trend” (Stoica, 2011: 295). According to UN projections, the percentage of persons aged 60 years or older will increase from 8.3% in 2017 to 22% in 2055.

Population aging is affected by a combination of factors. In empirical studies, low fertility rates and low mortality rates, as well as migration, have been identified as explanatory factors for population aging. This paper investigates the impact of intra-regional migration on regional aging based on Turkish Statistics Institution (TSI) data classified at Statistical Region Level 2. The paper is structured in three parts. The first part provides a conceptual framework for migration and population aging. The study methodology is explained in the next section. The last section presents the findings of the study. 

The data set for this study included median age, total fertility rate, net migration rate across regions, and crude death rate statistics by Regions Level 2, 2009–2017. Median age means the age of the person in the middle when all the persons in the population are sorted in ascending order (TÜİK (b), 2018). Total fertility rate means the average number of live births per between 15 to 49 years of age (TÜİK (e), 2018). Crude death rate means the number of deaths per thousand persons in the current year (TÜİK (c), 2018). Net migration rate means the number of net migration per thousand persons who are able to migrate (TÜİK (d), 2018). Aging was the dependent variable, which was measured by median age. The independent variables were total fertility rate, crude death rate, and net migration rate across regions.

The study seeks to answer three research questions: (1) Are there statistically significant differences in median age, total fertility rate, crude death rate, and net migration rate across regions? (2) Is there a correlation between the variables? (3) To what extent are the independent variables predictors for the number of regional aging? Descriptive statistics involving the mean values and standard deviations were used to summarize the data. The significant differences were examined by the ANOVA. The Pearson correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the correlations between the variables. Lastly, the study investigated the predictors of aging by using the hierarchical regression analysis. 

Overall, the results of the hierarchical regression analysis revealed that net migration rate was a significant predictor of regional aging. This predictor accounted for 35% percent of the variance in regional aging. Moreover, total fertility rate and crude death rate were observed to predict regional aging. Taken together, all predictors explained 94.6% percent of the variance in regional aging. The findings are consistent with the findings of Coleman (2008: 463), Chen et al. (2018: 139), Zlotnik, (2011: 99), Ge (1990: 1), and Jahan et al. (2014: 4), who showed that migration was a predictor of population aging. However, it differs from the findings of Shen and Dai (2006: 37), who indicated that migration was not a predictor of population aging. Secondly, the results of correlation analysis indicated that regional aging was positively and significantly correlated with net migration rate and crude death rate, but was negatively and significantly related to total fertility rate. Moreover, there was a significant and negative relationship between crude death rate and total fertility rate. Finally, the study observed a negative association between total fertility rate and net migration rate. Furthermore, the ANOVA analysis showed that mean age, total fertility rate, net migration rate, and crude death rate differed significantly between the regions. In conclusion, based on the findings of the present study, it appears that intraregional migration is a predictor of regional aging. Future research should examine other possible factors affecting regional aging, such as life expectancy at birth, and the environmental and genetic factors relevant to population aging.