BÖLÜM


DOI :10.26650/B/SS10.2023.001.02   IUP :10.26650/B/SS10.2023.001.02    Tam Metin (PDF)

Covid-19 and Food Inflation: A Case Study of Arima Modeling in Turkey

Büşra Kesici

The COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the world in 2020, significantly impacted the food and agriculture sectors. Production in the agricultural industry has been negatively affected, and food supply chains have been disrupted. Examining the consequences of the pandemic on the food and agriculture industries has become a major area of study for these reasons. Since prices are one of the most significant economic indicators, this book chapter examined the impact of the pandemic on the food and agriculture sector using price data. The primary objective of the book chapter is to assess the effects of COVID-19 on food prices in Turkey and to choose the most appropriate model for future price forecasting. Turkey's consumer price index for food and soft drinks and producer price index for food were used as data to evaluate the effect. The Box-Jenkins approach was utilized to forecast future periods of food inflation. Following the methodology mentioned above, the data period began before the pandemic. While the 2017m07-2021m08 period was determined as the estimation sample, the 2021m09-2021m11 period was determined as the forecast sample. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model is Turkey's most accurate predictor of food inflation. According to the results, it is anticipated that food prices in Turkey will continue to rise.



Referanslar

  • Adewopo, J. B., Solano-Hermosilla, G., Colen, L., & Micale, F. (2021). Using crowd-sourced data for real-time monitoring of food prices during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a pilot project in northern Nigeria. Global Food Security, 29, 100523. google scholar
  • Asteriou, D., & Hall, S. G. (2021). Applied econometrics. 4th ed. Macmillan. google scholar
  • Aydın, A., & Güner, A. (2020). COVID-19 salgınının tarım sektörü ve gıda güvenliği üzerine etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir değerlendirme. Artuklu Kaime International Journal of Economics and Administrative Researches, 3(2). google scholar
  • Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time series analysis, forecasting and control. Holden-Day. google scholar
  • Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2016). Time series analysis, forecasting and control. 5th ed. WILEY. google scholar
  • Cariappa, A. G. A., Acharya, K. K., Adhav, C. A., Sendhil, R., & Ramasundaram, P. (2021). COVID-19 induced lockdown effects on agricultural commodity prices and consumer behaviour in India - Implications for food loss and waste management. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 101160. google scholar
  • Case, K. E., Ray, C. F., & Oster S. M. (2012). Principles of economics. 10th ed. Pearson. google scholar
  • Coluccia, B., Agnusdei, G. P., Miglietta, P. P., & De Leo, F. (2021). Effects of COVID-19 on the Italian agri-food supply and value chains. Food Control, 123, 107839. google scholar
  • Demir, Y. (2021). Yeni tip koronavirüs (Covid-19) salgınının dünya gıda sistemi üzerindeki etkileri. Aydın Gastronomy, 5(2), 131-141. google scholar
  • Edward, A., & Manoj, J. (2016). Forecast model using arima for stock prices of automobile sector. International Journal of Research in Finance and Marketing, 6(4). google scholar
  • Enders, W. (2015). Applied econometric time series. 4th ed. WILEY. google scholar
  • FAO. (2021). Dünya gıda günü: Eylemlerimiz geleceğimizdir. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. google scholar
  • FAO. (2022). World Food Situation. Retrieved January 9, 2022, from https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/ foodpricesindex/en/. google scholar
  • Fattah, J., Ezzine, L., Aman, Z., El Moussami, H., & Lachhab, A. (2018). Forecasting of demand using arima model. International Journal of Engineering Business Management, 10. google scholar
  • Federation of Food & Drink Industry Association of Turkey. (2021). ÜFE ve TÜFE verileri. Retrieved January 7, 2022, from https://www.tgdf.org.tr/ufe-ve-tufe-verileri/. google scholar
  • Haqiqi, I., & Bahalou Horeh, M. (2021). Assessment of COVID-19 impacts on U.S. counties using the immediate impact model of local agricultural production (IMLAP). Agricultural Systems, 190, 103132. google scholar
  • Hillen, J. (2020). Online food prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Agribusiness, 37(1), 91-107. google scholar
  • Hirvonen, K., de Brauw, A., & Abate, G. T. (2021). Food Consumption and Food Security during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Addis Ababa. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(3), 772-789. google scholar
  • Meyer, B. H., Prescott, B., & Sheng, X. S. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations. International Journal of Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.009. google scholar
  • Musa, K. S., Maijama’a, R., Mohammed, N., & Yakubu, M. (2020). COVID-19 Pandemic, Oil Price Slump and Food Crisis Nexus: An Application of ARDL Approach. Open Access Library Journal, 07(06), 1-19. google scholar
  • Narayanan, S., & Saha, S. (2021). Urban food markets and the COVID-19 lockdown in India. Global Food Security, 29, 100515. google scholar
  • Pillay, S. (2020). Determining the optimal arima model for forecasting the share price index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Journal of Management Information and Decision Science, 23(5). google scholar
  • Sperling, F., Havlik, P., Denis, M., Valin, H., Palazzo, A., Gaupp, F., & Visconti, P. (2022). Toward resilient food systems after COVID-19. Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, 4, 100110. google scholar
  • STM thinktech. (2020). COVID-19 sonrası Dünyada ve Türkiye’de gıda güvenliği. STM Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik ve Ticaret A.Ş. google scholar
  • TGDF. (2020). COVID-19 sonrası gıda ve içecek sektörü. Türkiye Gıda ve İçecek Sanayii Dernekleri Federasyonu. google scholar
  • Turkish Statistical Institute. (2022). Tüketici fiyat endeksi, Aralık 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022, from https://data. tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Tuketici-Fiyat-Endeksi-Aralik-2021-45789#:~:text=T%C3%9C%C4%B0K%20 Kurumsal&text=T%C3%9CFE’de%20(2003%3D100,%19%2C60%20art%C4%B1%C5%9F%20g-er%C3%A7ekle%C5%9Fti. google scholar
  • Turkish Statistical Institute. (2022a). Yurt içi üretici fiyat endeksi, Aralık 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022, from https://data. tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Yurt-Ici-Uretici-Fiyat-Endeksi-Aralik-2021-45849#:~:text=T%C3%9C%C4%B0K%20 Kurumsal&text=Y%C4%B0%2D%C3%9CFE%20(2003%3D100,%43%2C86%20art%C4%B1%C5%9F%20 g%C3%B6sterdi. google scholar
  • Turkish Statistical Institute. (2022b). Tarım ürünleri üretici fiyat endeksi, Aralık 2021. Retrieved January 14, 2022, from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Tarim-Urunleri-Uretici-Fiyat-Endeksi-Aralik-2021-45759&dil=1#:~:text=T%C3%9C%C4%B0K%20Kurumsal&text=Tar%C4%B1m%2D%C3%9CFE’de%20 (2015,%23%2C73%20art%C4%B1%C5%9F%20ger%C3%A7ekle%C5%9Fti. google scholar
  • Yavuz, F. (2021). Türkiye’de gıda enflasyonu: Tarladan çatala sorunların bir göstergesi. SETA Yayınları google scholar


PAYLAŞ




İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları, uluslararası yayıncılık standartları ve etiğine uygun olarak, yüksek kalitede bilimsel dergi ve kitapların yayınlanmasıyla giderek artan bilimsel bilginin yayılmasına katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları açık erişimli, ticari olmayan, bilimsel yayıncılığı takip etmektedir.