From the Perspective of Inclusive Growth, the Examination of Türki̇ye’s Economic Growth After 2002
Hülya Deniz Karakoyun, Safa Eymen YorulmazThis study aims to examine Türkiye’s economic experience with GDP growth from 2002 onwards within two sub-samples (2002-2011 and 2011-2019) from the perspective of the inclusive growth approach, which was accepted by the United Nations as the eighth of the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015. The notion of inclusive growth emerged at the beginning of the 2010s, as neo-classical growth-led policies failed to stimulate sufficient convergence between different income groups in societies. The high growth rates in developing countries do not provide similar opportunities for people at all income levels. In addition, the global financial crisis led to a worsening of the income gap in many countries. Therefore, growth strategies in many countries after 2010 aim to foster inclusive and sustainable growth as opposed to the neo-classical growth-oriented approach. For this reason, this study estimates the inclusive growth for Türkiye creating an index for the last two decades based on the McKinley (2010) and Hakimian (2016) indices and then analyzes the determinants of inclusive growth for each subperiod. The results show that inclusive growth structure of Türkiye had more inclusive features in 2002-2011, and it dramatically changed after 2011.
Referanslar
- AfDB (2013). At the Center of Africa’s Transformation Strategy for 2013-2022, Tunis: African Development Bank. Retrieved from: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Policy-Documents/AfDB_ Strategy_for_2013%E2%80%932022_-_At_the_Center_of_Africa%E2%80%99s_Transformation.pdf google scholar
- Ali, I., and Son, H, H. (2007). Measuring Inclusive Growth. Asian Development Review. google scholar
- Ali, I. and J. Zhuang (2007). Inclusive Growth Toward a Prosperous Asia: Policy Implications. Economics and Research Department Working Paper 97, Mandaluyong City: Asian Development Bank. Retrieved from:ht-tps://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28210/wp097.pdf google scholar
- Anand R., Mishra S., and Peiris S., (2013). Inclusive Growth: Measurement and Determinants. IMF Working Paper Series WP/13/135. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13135.pdf google scholar
- Avcı, S. and Tonus, Ö. (2020). Kapsayıcı Büyümenin Ölçülmesi: Türkiye Örneği. Sakarya İktisadi Dergisi, 9(4), 277-298. google scholar
- Bedir, A. (2022). Kapsayıcı büyüme ölçümüne yönelik uluslararası kuruluşlarca geliştirilen yaklaşımlar ve bir yöntem önerisi. Gazi ve İşletme Dergisi, 8(2), pp.310-335. google scholar
- Bibolov, A., Yang, Y. and Ma, J. (2022). Defining and Measuring Inclusive Growth in the Mena Region. In R. Carderelli, M., V. Martin & S.Lall (Eds) Promoting Inclusive Growth n the Middle East and North Africa, Challanges and Opportunities in a Post-Pandemic World,(pp.7-27). IMF. google scholar
- Bocutoğlu, E. (2017). Kuruluşunun 20.Yılında Sürdürülebilir Kapsayıcı Büyüme Açısından D-8 İktisadi İşbirliği Örgütü Üye Devletlerinin Mevcut Durumu: Dünya Ekonomik Forumu Verileri İle Bir Değerlendirme. HAK-İŞ Uluslararası Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 6(15), (2017/2). google scholar
- Can, Z.G, Can, U. and Bal, H. (2019, 11-13 June). Kapsayıcı Büyüme ve Küreselleşme: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası Avrasya Ekonomileri Proceedings, Gazimagusa, Kıbrıs (KKTC). google scholar
- CBRT, (2011-I), Inflation Report. Retrieved from: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/aebf52bf-8992-4a07-b5e6-c7c53b042924/enf-ocak2011.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-aebf-52bf-8992-4a07-b5e6-c7c53b042924-m3fBaQI google scholar
- CBRT. (2023). Balance of Payments Analytic Presentation (BPM6). Retrieved from: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/ wps/wcm/connect/0ab87526-c290-4bdd-94d4-b8e99e70eba9/BOPMetaveri.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CAC-HEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-0ab87526-c290-4bdd-94d4-b8e99e70eba9-n12vQI- google scholar
- Cerra, V., B. Eichengreen, A. El- Ganainy, and M. Schindler. (2022). How to Achieve Inclusive Growth. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. google scholar
- Clark J., B. (1899). The Distribution of Wealth: A Theory of Wages, Interest and Profits. Retrieved from http:// www.econlib.org/library/Clark/clkDWtoc.html google scholar
- Commission on Growth and Development. (2008). Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development Washington: World Bank. Retrieved from: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/640214?ln=en. google scholar
- Dollar, D & Kraay, A (2000). Growth is good for the poor. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (No 2587). Washington, DC. Retrieved from: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/419351468782165950/pdf/ multi0page.pdf google scholar
- Dollar, D., Kleineberg, T. & Kraay, A. (August 1, 2013). Growth Still is Good for the Poor. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper (No. 6568). Washington, DC. Retrieved from: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2309849 google scholar
- Dua, A., Julien, J., P., Kerlin, M, Law J., Noel, N., Steward, S. (2021). The case for Inclusive Growth. McKinsey Report, Retrieved from: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/the-case-for-inc-lusive-growth#/ google scholar
- Eichengreen, B. and Gupta, P. (May 2009). The Two Waves of Service Sector Growth. NBER Working Paper No. w14968, Retrieved from: SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1405976 google scholar
- FRED Economic Data. Retrieved from: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA google scholar
- Hakimian, H. (2013). The search for inclusive growth in North Africa: a comparative approach. Economic Brief. Tunis: African Development Bank. Retrieved from https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Do-cuments/Publications/Economic Brief The Search for_ Inclusive Growth in North Africa A Comparative Approach.pdf google scholar
- Ianchovchina E. and Lunstrom, S. (2009). Inclusive Growth Analytics Framework and Application. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 4851, Washington, World Bank. Retrieved from: https://openknow-ledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/9dd20898-ffe3-5940-8304-d2617954ea79/content google scholar
- Ianchovichina E., and S. Lundstrom Gable. (2012). What Is Inclusive Growth? In R. Arezki, C. A. Pattillo, M. G. Quintyn, M. Zhu (Eds), Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low- Income Countries (pp. 147-160). International Monetary Fund. google scholar
- ILOSTAT, https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/ google scholar
- Kakwani, N., Khandker, S. and Son, H., H. (2004). Pro-poor Growth: Concepts and Measurement with Country Case Studies. International Poverty Centre Working Paper Series, No.1. Retrieved from: https://ipcig.org/ sites/default/files/pub/en/IPCWorkingPaper1.pdf google scholar
- Kara, H. (2012). Monetary Policy in Turkey After the Global Financial Crises. Central Bank of Republic of Turkey Working Paper 12/17. Ankara. Retrieved from: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/ d2a45461-b3c2-4bcc-ac68-cd49d2d4183d/WP1217E.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKS-PACE-d2a45461-b3c2-4bcc-ac68-cd49d2d4183d-m3fw5-3 google scholar
- Keyifli, N., Karakurt, B. and Şentürk, S. H. (2022). Kamu Kesimi Büyüklüğü ve Kapsayıcı Büyüme İlişkisi: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Çalışma. Sayıştay Dergisi, 33(124), 39-69 https:// doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1110377 google scholar
- Khan, A., Khan, G., Safdar, S., Sehar, M., Andleeb, Z. (2016). Measurement and Determinants of Inclusive Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan (1990-2012). Pakistan Development Review, 55(4), pp. 455-466. google scholar
- Klasen, S. (2010). Measuring and Monitoring Inclusive Growth: Multiple Dimensions, Open Questions, and Some Constructive Proposals. ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series. No:12. google scholar
- Kruse, H., E. Mensah, K. Sen, and G. J. de Vries (2022). “A manufacturing renaissance? Industrialization trends in the developing world”, IMF Economic Review DOI: http://doi.org/(...)7/s41308-022-00183-7. Data Retrieved from: https://www.rug.nl/(...)tructuralchange/etd/ google scholar
- Kuznets S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. American Economic Review. 45. pp: 1-28. OECD (2008). Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators Methodology and User Guide. google scholar
- Maggi, C. & Tang, C. (2022). Inclusiveness, Growth, Stability. In Promoting Inclusive Growth n the Middle East and North Africa, Challenges and Opportunities in a Post-Pandemic World, IMF, pp.29-35. google scholar
- McKinley, T. (2010). Inclusive growth criteria and indicators: An inclusive Growth Index for Diagnosis of Country Progress. Asian Development Bank Sustainable Development Working Paper Series, No. 14. Retrie-ved from: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28493/adb-wp14-inclusive-growth-criteria.pdf google scholar
- MDG Goals Indicators (2012), United Nations Statistical Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Table 7D: http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/data.aspx. google scholar
- Munir, F. and Ullah S., (2018). Inclusive Growth in Pakistan: Measurement and Determinants. The Pakistan Journal of Social Science. Special Issue, pp.150-162. google scholar
- OECD (2015). In It Together Why Less Inequality Benefits All. OECD. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ full/10.1111/issr.12091. google scholar
- OECD (July 3, 2023), Health Statistics. Retrieved from: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?ThemeTreeId=9 google scholar
- Planning Commission of India. (2006). Towards Faster and More Inclusive Growth: An Approach to the 11th Five Year Plan. New Delhi. google scholar
- Ravallion, M. (2004). Pro-poor growth: A primer. Policy Research Working Paper Series 3242, The World Bank. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=610283 google scholar
- Rauniyar G. and Kambur, R., (2010). Inclusive Development: Two Papers on Conceptualization, Application, and the ADB Perspective. January draft; Independent Evaluation Department, Manila: Asian Development Bank. google scholar
- Soyyigit, S. and Elverdi, S. (2021). Türkiye’de İBBS Düzey 1 Bölgelerinde Kapsayıcı Büyüme Açısından Yakınsamanın İncelenmesi. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 35, pp. 59-81. https://doi. org/10.26650/ekoist.2021.35.967983 google scholar
- Solow, R., (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 65-94. google scholar
- Swan, T. (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. Economic Record, 32(2) pp. 334-61. google scholar
- State Council of China. (2006). The 11th Five Year Plan of National Economy and Social Development of People’s Republic of China 2006-2010. Beijing. google scholar
- World Bank (2022a). Poverty and Shared Prosperity. Retrieved from: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ server/api/core/bitstreams/d1d1b66e-e097-565d-8fa1-8fa4112730e6/content google scholar
- World Bank Dataset, World Development Indicators (WDI) google scholar
- World Bank (2022b). Fact Sheet: An Adjustment to Global Poverty Lines, Retrieved from:https://www.world-bank.org/en/news/factsheet/2022/05/02/fact-sheet-an-adjustment-to-global-poverty-lines#13 google scholar
- UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS ), Retrieved from: http://data.uis.unesco.org/ google scholar
- United Nations, World Population Prospects 2022. Retrieved from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/ Standard/Mortality/ google scholar
- United Nations (2014, 27-28 September). Social inclusion programmes and inclusive growth in developing countries. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. TD/B/C.I/EM.7/2., Genova. Retrieved from: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ciem7d2_en.pdf google scholar
- UNDP, Human Development Report, Gender Inequality Index, Retrieved from: https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/ thematic-composite-indices/gender-inequality-index#/indicies/GII google scholar
- Sustainable Development Index, Retrieved from: https://www.sustainabledevelopmentindex.org/ google scholar
- Taşkın, T. (2014). GDP Growth in Türkiye, Inclusive or Not? Central Bank Review, 14, pp.31-64. google scholar
- Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index. Retrieved from: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022. google scholar
- TURKSTAT, Income and Living Conditions Survey, Percentile Data in Türkiye. google scholar
- TURKSTAT, Health and Social Protection Statistics, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=sag-lik-ve-sosyal-koruma-101&dil=1# google scholar
- TURKSTAT, National Accounts Statistics, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ulusal-hesap-lar-113&dil=1# google scholar
- TURKSTAT, Transportation and Communication Statistics, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=u-lastirma-ve-haberlesme-112&dil=1# google scholar
- UNECE (2019). Guidelines on producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators. Retrieved from: https:// unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/publications/2019/ECECESSTAT20192.pdf google scholar
