Sustainability, Policy, and Global Impact: A Comparative Analysis

EnglishTürkçe

BÖLÜM


DOI :10.26650/B/SS10ET27.2024.008.02   IUP :10.26650/B/SS10ET27.2024.008.02    Tam Metin (PDF)

Public Debt: Global Trends, Growth Trend, Risks, Prospects and Azerbaijan’s Public Debt Management Experience

Fail Kazımov

Analyzing the threats, prospects and advantages for the economy caused by the internal and external debt of the state is very relevant in the modern era. In recent years, state borrowing has penetrated the economies of all countries as an actual economic trend. Due to the significant contraction in the world economy in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relevance of public debt and its share in the gross domestic product (GDP) of countries has increased at an alarming level. Expansionary fiscal policies due to fiscal deficits have led to a sharp increase in public debt levels around the world.

Along with the increase in the interest rate of public debt in GDP, the number of reasons that create public debt is also increasing worldwide. The issue that attracts attention is that rich and poor countries suffer from public debt.

Modern public debt has become more of a political mechanism than an economic process. Nuances such as the fact that foreign debts have reached an unmanageable level in many countries and the inability of some countries to pay debts have increased both the number of researchers and the number of applications to this topic by individual financial institutions. All such nuances make the topic even more relevant and make it necessary to analyze the current picture of public debt in the world from a different perspective, to examine the seriousness of the high risks and threats that debt can create.

Taking into account the above, the following goals were set and analyzed in the research work:

  • At the global level, the macroeconomic advantages of public debt, its efficiency and the risks created were analyzed, comparisons were made based on the databases and statistical data of international organizations, and the positive and negative effects of the relationship between public debt and GDP were considered.
  • The growth trend of public debt in the last 100 years was reviewed and growth dynamics and different effects on economies were investigated.
  • The borrowing strategy and specific characteristics of developed countries, developing countries and countries rich in natural resources were analyzed comparatively.
  • The current state of Azerbaijan›s public debt has been analyzed.
  • The economic problems and perspectives that the current level of Azerbaijan›s public debt may create have been examined.
  • The weaknesses and strengths of Azerbaijan›s public debt management strategy have been analyzed. The research paper consists of two parts, covering research on the world and Azerbaijan related to public debt.

Anahtar Kelimeler: GDP, Economic Growth, Public Debt, Foreign Debt, Domestic Debt

Referanslar

  • Ağanemst Ağayev (2002), Dövlst borcu vs onun idars edilmssi, Bakı, Şsrq-Qsrb, 320 s. google scholar
  • Ağanemst Ağayev (2006), Azsrbaycan Respublikasında daxili dövlst borcu: problemlsr, imkanlar vs inkişaf istiqamstlsri, Maliyys vs uçot, s.36-41. google scholar
  • Ashfaq, M., & Ul Haq Padda, I. (2019). Estimating the Optimal Level of Public Debt for Economic Growth: An Evidence from Pakistan. Quest Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 1(2), 222-232. google scholar
  • Azsrbaycan Respublikasının Maliyys Nazirliyi (2022). Dövlst büdcssi yarımillik hesabatı. file:///C:/Users/ User/Downloads/62e7be2a89c6c.pdf) google scholar
  • Babatunde S., Omotosho, S. B., & Sani, I. (2016) Doguwa Determining the Optimal Public Debt Threshold for Nigeria. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics Vol. 7 No. 2, 1-26. google scholar
  • CSIS. (2022). The next wave is not a COVID-19 Wave: Debt sustainability in developing country. https://www. csis.org/analysis/next-wave-not-covid-19-wave-debt-sustainability-developing-countries google scholar
  • “Dövlst borcu haqqında” (22 may 2007) Azsrbaycan Respublikasının Qanunuhttps://e-qanun.az/fra-mework/13680 google scholar
  • Daniel Friedrich Koch (2012), Effective limitation of public debt taking into account (political) economic and ethical aspects. Inauguraldissertation to obtain an academic degree PhD in Economics, Pg. 346. google scholar
  • El Mostafa Bentour. (2018). On the public debt and growth threshold : one size does not necessarily fit all. Centre de Recherche en Economie de Grenoble. Working paper 55. google scholar
  • Fuad Qsnbsrov (2011), Xarici borcların iqtisadi tshlükssizlik baxımından qiymstlsndirilmssi. Azsrbaycanin vergi xsbsrlsri. 12, 77-86. google scholar
  • Gokay Canberk Bulus, (2020). Growth-maximizing public debt in Turkey: An empirical investigation. Econo-mics and Business Review, 6(20), No. 3, 68-87. google scholar
  • Hasanli, Y, Hajiyev, N., & Kazimov, F. (2019). The Impact of Natural Resource Exploitation on Balanced Deve-lopment with Modified Reproduction Scheme Based on Supply Chain Management. International Journal of Supply Chain Management 8(1), 438-443. google scholar
  • Minhaj-ud-Din, Muhammad Azam Khan, Muhammad Tariq (2021). Estimating the Optimum Level of Debt-Th-reshold: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. Pakistan Social Sciences Review (PSSR) April-June, Volume 5, Issue 2, 992-1007. google scholar
  • Phelps, E. (2022). Public Debt: My Dissent from “Keynesian” Theories. Journal of Government and Economics, 5, Spring, 100029. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667319322000015 google scholar
  • Samuelson PA. Economics: An Introductory Analysis. 10th rev ed. USA: McGraw-Hill Inc.; 1976. p. 896. ISBN-10: 0070856419. ISBN-13: 978-0070856417 google scholar
  • Shakira Mustapha, Annalisa Prizzon (2015). Overseas and Development Institute Debt Sustainability and Debt Management in Developing Countries google scholar
  • Strategiya. (2018). Azerbaycan Respublikasında dövlet borcunun idare edilmesine dair orta ve uzun müddet üçün Strategiya Azerbaycan Respublikası Prezidentinin 2018-ci il 24 avqust tarixli 424 nömreli Serencamı ile tesdiq edilmişdir. (https://e-qanun.az/framework/39833) google scholar
  • Sugözü, H. İ. (2010). Devlet Borçları IMFDünya Bankası ve Türkiye. Ankara: Nobel Press; p. 384. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a0897eed915d622c00023f/EPS_PEAKS_Topic_Guide_Debt_ Sustainability_and_Debt_Management_in_Developing_Countries.pdf google scholar
  • Trading Economics. (2022). Azerbaijan - Credit Rating. https://tradingeconomics.com/azerbaijan/rating google scholar
  • World Bank (2022). International Debt Statistics. https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/debt-statistics/ids/ products google scholar
  • World Bank and IMF Guidelines for Public Debt Management. (2001). https://www.idi.no/elibrary/profes-sional-sais/audit-lending-and-borrowing-frameworks/1240-audit-of-public-debt-management-handbo-ok-for-sais-v1-chapter-1/file google scholar
  • Zaur Veliyev, Fiskal dayanıqlılıq nezeriyye ve praktika, İSBN 978-9952-440-35-9, Bakı-2020, seh. 338 google scholar
  • İbrahimov, V (2021). Dövlet borcunun aktuallığı: risklerin deyerlendirilmesi ve borc yükü göstericileri. Dövlat Auditi Jurnalı, 4, 82-90. google scholar


PAYLAŞ




İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları, uluslararası yayıncılık standartları ve etiğine uygun olarak, yüksek kalitede bilimsel dergi ve kitapların yayınlanmasıyla giderek artan bilimsel bilginin yayılmasına katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. İstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları açık erişimli, ticari olmayan, bilimsel yayıncılığı takip etmektedir.