İnsani Gelişme – Çevre Kalitesi Bağlantısının Analizi: Türkiye İçin Yeni Kanıtlar
Burhan DurgunAntropojenik faaliyetlerdeki artışların neden olduğu iklim değişikliği hem bugünü hem de geleceği tehdit etmektedir. Bu anlamda, artan sera gazı salınımı, sürdürülebilirliğin önündeki en büyük engellerden biridir. Çevresel bozulmaya etki eden faktörlerin belirlenmesi, bu sorunun etkilerini azaltmaya yönelik politikaların geliştirilmesinde faydalı olabilmektedir. Çevresel bozulmayı ifade etmek için sıklıkla karbon emisyonu kullanılsa da sera gazı emisyonları daha kapsamlı bir göstergedir. Çevresel bozulmanın büyüme ile ilişkisini araştıran çalışmalar fazla olmasına rağmen kalkınma ile ilişkisini araştıran literatür hala zayıftır. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1990-2021 döneminde kalkınmanın kapsamlı bir göstergesi olarak kabul gören insani gelişme endeksi, insani gelişme endeksinin alt endeksleri ve kentleşmenin sera gazı emisyonları üzerindeki etkisi genişletilmiş ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Sınır testi sonuçları değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermiştir. Uzun dönem esnekliklerine göre gelir boyutu ve kentleşme çevresel bozulmayı arttırırken eğitim boyutu az da olsa çevreyi koruyucu etkide bulunmaktadır. İnsani gelişme endeksi ve sağlık endeksinin çevresel bozulmaya etkisi ise istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur. Ancak sağlamlık kontrolü yapıldığında insani gelişme endeksinin etkisinin anlamlı olduğu görülmektedir. Çevre kalitesinin yükselmesi için üretim sürecinde fosil yakıtların ağırlığının azaltılması ve yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının arttırılması gerekmektedir. Ayrıca eğitim hizmetleri daha kapsayıcı ve daha eşit bir şekilde sunulmalıdır. Son olarak kentleşmenin çevre kirletici etkisinin azaltılması için kentlerin sürdürülebilirlik kabiliyetlerinin arttırılması gerekmektedir.
Analysing the Linkage between Human Development and Environmental Quality: Fresh Evidence from Türkiye
Burhan DurgunClimate change caused by increases in anthropogenic activities threatens both the present and the future. In this sense, increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are one of the biggest obstacles to sustainability. Identifying the factors that contribute to environmental degradation (ED) can be useful in designing policies to mitigate the effects of this problem. Although carbon emissions are frequently used as a metric for assessing ED, GHG emissions offer a more comprehensive indicator. While numerous studies have examined the relationship between ED and economic growth, the existing literature on the relationship between ED and development remains limited. In this context, this study examines the impact of the human development index, which is accepted as a comprehensive indicator of development, sub-indices of the human development index and urbanisation on GHG emissions in Türkiye for the period 1990-2021 using the augmented ARDL method. The bounds test results indicate that the variables are co-integrated. In the long run, the income dimension and urbanisation contribute ED, while the education dimension has a slightly protective effect on the environment. The effects of the human development index and the health index on environmental degradation are statistically insignificant. However, when the robustness check is conducted, the effect of the human development index is found to be significant. To enhance environmental quality, it is imperative to diminish the reliance on fossil fuels in the production process and augment investments in renewable energy. It is also recommended that education services become more inclusive and equitable. Ultimately, to mitigate the harmful environmental consequences of urbanisation, it is crucial to enhance the sustainability capacities of urban centres.
Climate change caused by increases in anthropogenic activities threatens both the present and the future. In this sense, rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are one of the biggest obstacles to sustainability. The identification of factors that either positively or negatively impact environmental degradation is a valuable step in the development of policies designed to mitigate the effects of this problem. Carbon emissions are often used as a proxy for environmental degradation. However, GHG emissions are a more comprehensive indicator that also includes carbon compounds.
This study is based on the assumption that the various dimensions of human development may exert disparate impacts on environmental quality. Unlike previous studies, human development is included in the econometric model both in general and in its components such as education, health and income. Moreover, GHG emissions, which are a more encompassing measure than carbon emissions, are employed as an environmental quality variable. By incorporating urbanisation rates into the model as a control variable, it becomes evident how urbanisation impacts sustainability. The research questions of this study are i) how does human development affect environmental quality and ii) is there a difference in the effects of human development components on environmental quality? The absence of any other study in the literature that analyzes the impact of human development on environmental quality by decomposing it into its components has been a significant motivating factor in the development of this study.
Although numerous studies have been conducted to examine the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth, the existing literature on the relationship between environmental degradation and development remains limited. Some studies have generally emphasised the mitigating effect of human development on environmental degradation. The literature on the relationship between education, health and income indicators and environmental degradation, on the other hand, has emphasised the environment-protective effect of these three dimensions, with contrasting results.
In this study, the effect of the sub-indices of the human development index, which is widely accepted as a comprehensive indicator of development, on GHG emissions in Türkiye for the period 1990-2021 is analysed with the augmented ARDL method. In the study, two models were constructed with GHG emissions as the dependent variable. The independent variables are the Human Development Index in the first model and the sub-indices of education, health, and income in the second model. In both models, urbanisation rate is used as a control variable.
The stationarity of the variables was tested with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. Furthermore, the stationarity analysis was repeated with the Zivot-Andrews (ZA) unit root test, which also identified the structural breaks in the model. The AARDL procedure, as proposed by Sam et al. (2019), is more effective than the traditional ARDL method in detecting the relationship between variables.
The ADF and PP unit root tests show that all variables except urbanisation are stationary at first differences. The ADF test indicated an I(2) process for urbanisation, while the PP unit root test indicated stationarity at the level. The unit root test with the ZA break reported that the stationary process is valid in the first difference for all variables. The bounds test results show that the variables are co-integrated in both models and that there is no degenerate case in the models. The long-run elasticities indicate that increases in income and urbanisation are associated with heightened environmental degradation. Conversely, the education dimension exerts a slight protective effect on the environment. The effects of the human development index and the health index on environmental degradation are statistically insignificant. However, when the robustness check was conducted with the FMOLS method, the effect of the human development index was found to be significant.
The results for Türkiye indicate the necessity for the implementation of policies aimed at reducing environmental degradation. Primarily, the proportion of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption should be reduced, while investments in renewable energy should be increased. To reduce the environmental impact of production processes, regulations should be enacted, particularly in relation to energy efficiency and conservation. Furthermore, it is crucial to expand the scope of educational services to encompass a more inclusive and equitable approach. It is also essential to incorporate environmental awareness into the educational process and to provide support for research and development studies on green technologies at the post-secondary level.
