Türkiye Ekonomisinde Mal ve Hizmet Enflasyonunun Genel Enflasyona Yakınsamasının Analizi
Melike Ecem SertbaşBu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde TÜİK tarafından sınıflandırılan 12 mal ve hizmet grubu olan Gıda ve Alkolsüz İçecekler, Alkollü İçecekler ve Tütün, Giyim ve Ayakkabı, Konut, Su, Elektrik, Gaz ve Diğer Yakıtlar, Mobilya, Ev Aletleri ve Ev Bakım Hizmetleri, Sağlık, Ulaştırma, Haberleşme, Eğlence ve Kültür, Eğitim, Lokanta ve Oteller ve Çeşitli Mal ve Hizmetlerine ait enflasyon oranlarının genel enflasyon oranlarına yakınsayıp yakınsamadığını test etmektir. Bu doğrultuda 2003:02 2019:03 dönemlerini kapsayan aylık enflasyon verilerine Kruse (2011) birim kök testi ve Hepsağ (2019) tarafından geliştirilen, yapısal kırılmaları ve doğrusal dışılığı birlikte dikkate alan birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonucunda Kruse (2011) testi için hiçbir mal ve hizmet grubu için yakınsama hipotezi geçerli değilken Hepsağ (2019) testi için 12 mal ve hizmet grubundan yalnızca mobilya, ev aletleri ve ev bakım hizmetlerinin genel enflasyon oranlarına yakınsadığı; diğer mal ve hizmet gruplarında yakınsama olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuçlara göre uygulanan para politikalarının genel olarak mal ve hizmet fiyatlarına yansımadığı ve uygulanan politikaların başarılı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
The Analysis of Convergence of Inflation Rates of Goods and Services with General Inflation Rates in the Turkish Economy
Melike Ecem SertbaşThe purpose of this study is to test whether the inflation rates of the 12 goods and services group classified by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Food and Soft Drinks, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, Clothing and Footwear, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, Furniture, Home Appliances and Home Care Services, Health, Transport, Communication, Entertainment and Culture, Education, Restaurants and Hotels and Various Goods and Services), converge with general inflation rates. In line with this, the Kruse (2011) unit root test and the Hepsağ (2019) unit root test, which considers structural breaks and nonlinearity were applied to the monthly inflation data covering the periods 2003: 02 2019: 03. As a result of the empirical analysis, while the convergence hypothesis was not valid for the Kruse (2011) test for any of the goods and services groups; only Furniture, Home Appliances and Home Care Services converged with the general inflation rates out of the 12 goods and services groups; it is concluded that there is no convergence in other goods and service groups according to the Hepsağ (2019) test. According to these results, it is concluded that the monetary policies applied are not reflected in the prices of goods and services in general and the policies implemented are not successful.
The convergence theory was first introduced by Jan Tinbergen in 1959. The convergence theory, which is based on Solow’s neoclassical growth model, is based on the fact that income inequality between comparative countries will decrease over time and that poorer countries tend to grow faster than richer ones. Although the applied studies of convergence theory were initially focused on income, inflation convergence in economic literature has become one of the main research topics an done which has been widely discussed in applied studies in recent years. The convergence hypothesis of inflation is based on unit root tests in a time series framework. The rejection of the unit root indicates that any shock in inflation rate differentials that causes deviations from the equilibrium dies out and is expressed as the empirical evidence that the inflation rate differentials are converging to their equilibrium situation (Hepsağ, 2017). Since the monetary policies implemented within countries are uniform, the effects of the policies on the convergence of national or regional inflation will be limited. It is also possible to evaluate the uniform price stability policy in terms of goods and services outside the countries. From this point; the success of the implementation of the policy of price stability in groups of goods and services in terms of Turkey’s economy is being investigated. The purpose of this study is to test whether the inflation rates of the 12 goods and services groups, classified by the Turkish Statistical Institute, converge with general inflation rates. The data used were monthly series covering the period 2003: 02 to 2019: 03 and were obtained from the Central Bank Electronic Data Distribution System. The Kruse (2011) nonlinear unit root test and the Hepsağ (2019) unit root test, which considers structural breaks and nonlinearity were applied to the data. In this study, no case of convergence was found in any of the goods and services groups using the Kruse (2011) test, but one case of convergence case was found for the Hepsağ (2019) test. Thus, the Hepsağ (2019) test prevents over-rejections of the null hypothesis of the unit root and is generally superior to the Kruse (2011) test. In the light of these results, it is concluded that the monetary policies implemented are not generally reflected in the prices of goods and services and the implemented policies are not successful. It can be said that instead of uniform price policies, policies specific to each good and service group would be more beneficial in terms of price stability
