Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketiminin Belirleyicileri: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Örneği
Esra Topaloğlu, Çiğdem Demir TokerHızla büyüyen ekonomileri ve nüfuslarıyla BRICS-T (Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye) ülkelerinin enerjiye olan ihtiyacı gün geçtikçe artmaktadır. Bu ihtiyacı gidermek için uygulayacakları enerji politikaları, söz konusu ülkelerin küresel güç dengelerindeki yerlerini belirlemede kritik rol oynayacaktır. Bu bağlamda BRICS-T ülkeleri artan bu enerji taleplerini karşılamak için fosil yakıtların sınırlı kaynakları yerine yenilenebilir enerji kay naklarına yönelmişlerdir. Yenilenebilir enerji kullanımını arttırmaya yönelik stratejiler geliştirmek ve sürdürülebilir enerji politikaları ortaya koymak için bu çalışmada, BRICS-T ülkelerinin yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme, karbondioksit emisyonu, doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri arasındaki ilişkiyi belirlemek amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, ülkelerin 1990-2020 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kullanılarak Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel-SUR yaklaşımıyla model tahminleri yapılmış ve analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Brezilya’da 2015 yılı sonrası, Hindistan’da 2012 yılı sonrası yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış yaşandığı tespit edilirken, Çin’de 1998 yılı sonrası, Güney Afrika’da 2001 yılı sonrası ve Türkiye’de 2000 yılı sonrası yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir düşüş yaşandığı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, yenilenebilir enerji tüketim modelinde bağımsız değişkenlerin etkilerinin ülke bazında farklılık gösterdiği dikkat çekmiştir. Bu çalışmayla, BRICS T ülkelerinde yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin belirleyicileri ele alınarak; enerji güvenliğinin artması, karbondioksit emisyonlarının azalmasıyla daha temiz bir çevrede yaşanması ve ekosistemin korunması gibi kritik hedeflere ulaşmada önemli katkılar sağlanmaya çalışılmıştır.
Determinants of Renewable Energy Consumption: Case of BRICS-T Countries
Esra Topaloğlu, Çiğdem Demir TokerWith their rapidly growing economies and populations, the BRICS-T (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey) countries’ need for energy is increasing day by day. The energy policies they will implement to meet this need will play a critical role in determining their place in the global balance of power. In this context, BRICS-T countries have turned to renewable energy resources instead of the limited resources of fossil fuels to meet these increasing energy demands. To develop strategies to increase the use of renewable energy and to put forward sustainable energy policies, this study aims to determine the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions and foreign direct investment inflows in BRICS-T countries. For this purpose, using the annual data of the countries for the period 1990-2020, model estimations were made and analyses were carried out with the Structural Break Panel-SUR approach. According to the results of the analyses, it was determined that there was a statistically significant increase in renewable energy consumption after 2015 in Brazil and after 2012 in India, while there was a statistically significant decrease in renewable energy consumption after 1998 in China, after 2001 in South Africa and after 2000 in Turkey. In addition, the effects of the independent variables in the renewable energy consumption model differed on a country basis. In this study, by addressing the determinants of renewable energy consumption in BRICS-T countries, it has been tried to make important contributions to achieving critical goals such as increasing energy security, living in a cleaner environment with reduced carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the ecosystem.
BRICS-T countries, which stand out in global energy markets both in terms of supply and demand, hold a significant position in the energy sector. The energy policies of these countries, which play a critical role in the global energy balance, are aligned with sustainability goals in areas such as energy security, energy supply, energy prices, and the use of renewable energy. In this context, the primary motivation of this study has been to econometrically analyse the renewable energy consumption of the BRICS-T countries, with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy use in total energy consumption.
This study aims to identify the factors affecting renewable energy use, or in other words, consumption, in BRICS T countries using a panel data approach, with particular attention to structural breaks. For this purpose, the study uses data from BRICS-T countries for the period 1990-2020, with renewable energy consumption as the dependent variable and economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and foreign direct investment inflows as the independent variables. The dataset was obtained from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. To use the correct testing and estimation methods, the characteristics of the panel data model were initially tested using various tests found in the literature. The results revealed that the panel data structure is a heterogeneous panel data model with inter-unit correlation.
Since the time dimension of the heterogeneous panel data model considered in the study is not long enough, which would cause a loss of degrees of freedom in multiple structural breaks, structural breaks in only a single number of constants are determined heterogeneously for each BRICS-T country. For the identified structural break dates, a dummy variable approach was used and the model estimation was performed with the Seemingly Unrelated Regression with Structural Breaks (SUR) Model proposed by Guliyev (2023).
The structural break dates were found to be statistically significant at the 0.05 significance level in all countries except Russia. Accordingly, structural breaks were identified in 2015 for Brazil, 2012 for India, 1998 for China, 2001 for South Africa and 2000 for Turkey. According to the SUR estimation results, which account for structural breaks, all the individual regression equations are statistically significant at the 0.01 significance level. The coefficient of determination (R²) values calculated for the individual regression equations are 0.89 for Brazil, 0.58 for Russia, 0.99 for India, 0.99 for China, 0.98 for South Africa, and 0.97 for Turkey. Accordingly, with the inclusion of structural breaks, it is observed that the independent variables considered in the model—economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and foreign direct investment inflows—highly explain the changes in renewable energy consumption in all countries except Russia. When examining the model coefficients, it is observed that an increase in economic growth positively affects the renewable energy consumption of Brazil, India, China, and Turkey, while negatively affecting that of Russia and South Africa. Moreover, an increase in carbon dioxide emissions positively affects Russia’s renewable energy consumption but negatively impacts Brazil, India, China, and Turkey. Lastly, the increase in foreign direct investment inflows positively affects the renewable energy consumption of Brazil and South Africa, while negatively impacting that of China and Turkey. Furthermore, it was found that the changes in renewable energy consumption positively affected Brazil after 2015, India after 2012, and China after 1998, South Africa after 2001, and Turkey after 2000. The structural changes evaluated for each country indicate significant dates. In light of these findings, the study is considered to make significant contributions to the literature, not only by exam ining the effects of economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and foreign direct investment inflows on renewable energy consumption but also by analysing structural changes and their impact on these relationships. In addition, this study indicates that countries should develop strategies to increase the use of renewable energy resources in policy processes by addressing the economic and environmental impacts of increasing energy consumption in a multidimensional way. Thus, achieving sustainable energy goals is possible by reducing carbon emissions, creating new employment opportunities and ensuring energy supply security.
