Individual Earthquake Preparedness of Residents in Istanbul: Social and Cognitive Determinants
Mehmet Hanefi Topal, Kübra Şimşek, Adem BaşpınarThis study aims to identify the social and cognitive factors that influence individual-level earthquake preparedness among Istanbul residents by using an extended model that incorporates earthquake risk perception within the framework of social cognitive theory (SCT). A survey of 411 participants was conducted, and data analysis was performed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings strongly support the SCT assertions, revealing that social factors (such as social trust and subjective norms) and cognitive factors (including outcome expectations and self-efficacy) are key predictors of earthquake risk perception. However, earthquake preparedness behavior was found to be more closely associated with cognitive factors, particularly self-efficacy and risk perception, with subjective norms being the only social factor influencing preparedness behavior. These results that policymakers and practitioners should focus on disaster education, awareness, and participation to promote individual preparedness and mitigate disaster risk.
İstanbul’da Yerleşiklerin Bireysel Deprem Hazırlığı: Sosyal ve Bilişsel Belirleyiciler
Mehmet Hanefi Topal, Kübra Şimşek, Adem BaşpınarBu çalışmanın amacı, sosyal bilişsel teori (SBT) çerçevesinde deprem risk algısını içeren genişletilmiş bir model kullanarak İstanbul’da yerleşikler arasında bireysel düzeyde depreme hazırlığı etkileyen sosyal ve bilişsel faktörleri belirlemektir. 411 katılımcıyla bir anket yapılmış ve veri analizi, yapısal eşitlik modellemesi (YEM) kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular, SBT’nin iddialarını güçlü bir şekilde destekleyerek, sosyal (sosyal güven ve öznel normlar gibi) ve bilişsel (sonuç beklentileri ve öz yeterlilik dâhil) çevrenin deprem risk algısının temel belirleyicileri olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bununla birlikte, depreme hazırlık davranışının bilişsel faktörlerle, özellikle de öz yeterlilik ve risk algısıyla daha yakından ilişkili olduğu, öznel normların ise hazırlık davranışını etkileyen tek sosyal faktör olduğu görülmüştür. Bu sonuçlar, politika yapıcıların ve uygulayıcıların bireysel hazırlığı teşvik etmek ve afet riskini azaltmak için afet eğitimi, farkındalık çalışmaları ve katılımcı programlara odaklanmaları gerektiğini göstermektedir.
Aim: This study aims to assess the effects of social trust, subjective norms, selfefficacy, outcome expectations, and earthquake risk perception on individual earthquake preparedness behaviors among Istanbul residents using social cognitive theory (SCT).
Background: Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), developed by Bandura, emphasizes the significant role of the social environment in shaping behavior and cognition. It suggests that people learn by observing others and the consequences of their actions, thus integrating personal, behavioral, and social/environmental factors. The key components of SCT include self-efficacy, outcome expectations, risk perception, and social trust and subjective norms. These elements influence how individuals perceive and react to their environments, shaping their behaviors and decision-making processes. SCT has wide applications, particularly in health communication, career development, and disaster preparedness, where it helps explain and improve behaviors through observation, reinforcement, and modeling. The theory underscores individuals’ proactive role in adapting to their circumstances, and its constructs are crucial for promoting preparedness behaviors in various contexts, including natural disasters and health emergencies.
Research Model and Hypotheses: The research model of this study in the context of SCT suggests that social-cognitive factors are interconnected and influence earthquake risk perception and preparedness behavior. The key components of the research model are as follows:
1. Personal-Cognitive Factors: Self-Efficacy: Belief in one’s ability to perform a behavior. Higher self-efficacy enhances intentions and actions in disaster preparedness. Social trust and subjective norms positively influence selfefficacy (H1, H2). Outcome Expectations: Beliefs about the consequences of actions. Positive expectations increase preparedness intentions and behaviors, while negative ones decrease them. Social trust and subjective norms enhance positive outcome expectations (H3, H4).
2. Earthquake Risk Perception (EPR): The possible effects and the probability of their occurrence define the perception of earthquake risk. Subjective norms also shape risk perception, as people follow social cues about disaster preparedness (H6). Self-efficacy and positive outcome expectations further increase risk perception, encouraging realistic evaluation and proactive behaviors (H7, H8).
3. Preparedness Behavior (PB): PB involves material, behavioral, and informational actions to ensure effective disaster response. Social trust fosters coordination and cooperation, thus enhancing preparedness (H9). Subjective norms, through social influence and pressure, also promote preparedness behaviors (H10). Self-efficacy is crucial because individuals with higher self-efficacy are more likely to engage in preparedness activities (H11). Positive outcome expectations motivate preventive measures and preparedness (H12). High risk perception although sometimes causing fear, generally leads to increased preparedness actions to mitigate negative emotions (H13).
In summary, SCT integrates self-efficacy, outcome expectations, social trust, and subjective norms to explain how these factors collectively influence earthquake risk perception and preparedness behavior. Increasing self-efficacy and positive outcome expectations, supported by social trust and norms, are vital for improving earthquake preparedness.
Methodology: This research employs a quantitative, correlational, and predictive design with data collected via an online survey. The target population includes residents over 18 years old in Istanbul, representing 75% of the 15.908 million population. Convenience sampling was used, aiming for a minimum sample of 384, with 411 participants (206 females, 205 males) eventually completing the survey. Data were gathered from December 21, 2023, to March 11, 2024, through Google Forms, with participant recruitment enhanced via social media. The questionnaire collected consent information and measured social trust, subjective norms, self-efficacy, outcome expectations, earthquake risk perceptions, and preparedness behaviors using Likert scales and binary responses. Six scales were used, adapted into Turkish, and validated by Topal et al. (2024): (1). Social Trust (3 items, α = 80.9%), (2). Subjective Norms (3 items, α = 84.3%), (3). Self-Efficacy (6 items, α = 89.1%), (4). Outcome Expectations** (6 items, α = 87.9%), (5). Earthquake Risk Perception (13 items, α = 92.5%) and (6). Preparedness Behavior (16 items, α = 90.9%). The analysis followed a four-stage process using the JAMOVI software. 1. Descriptive Analysis: Frequency, percentage; mean, mode; median, standard deviation; skewness; and kurtosis. 2. Validity and Reliability: Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to test construct, convergent, and discriminant validity. Reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s Alpha, Composite Reliability (CR), and McDonald’s Omega (ω). 3. Group Comparisons: Independent sample t-tests and one-way ANOVAs were performed to compare group means using Levene’s test for variance homogeneity. 4. Hypothesis Testing: Structural Equation Modeling (SEM-Path) was used to test the hypotheses and evaluate the model fit and significance of the regression coefficients.
Results and Discussion: The study’s hypothesis testing results strongly support the claims of Social-Cognitive Theory (SCT), indicating that social factors (such as social trust and subjective norms) and cognitive factors (including outcome expectations and self-efficacy) are primary determinants of earthquake risk perception. However, earthquake preparedness behavior is more closely tied to cognitive factors, particularly self-efficacy and risk perception, with subjective norms being the sole social factor influencing preparedness behavior. Policymakers and practitioners should emphasize disaster education, awareness, and participation to enhance individual preparedness and mitigate disaster risk.
