Çevresel Bozulma, Ekonomik ve Demografik Değişkenlerin Beklenen Yaşam Süresi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Yüksek Gelir Grubundaki Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi*
Şehadet Bulut, Saltuk AğıralioğluBeklenen yaşam süresi ülkelerin refah düzeylerini gösteren en önemli göstergelerdendir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, yüksek gelir grubu içinde yer alan Kanada, Belçika, İngiltere, Almanya, Avusturya, İspanya, İsveç, Fransa, İtalya ve ABD’de çevresel bozulmanın, ekonomik koşulların ve demografik faktörlerin beklenen yaşam süresi üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktır. Bu
çalışma 2000-2019 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Araştırmada, CO2 emisyonu, bebek ölüm oranları, işsizlik oranı ve kamu sağlık harcamalarının mevcut sağlık harcamaları içerisindeki payı gibi faktörlerin beklenen yaşam süresine etkileri panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Ülkelerin birlikte ele alındığı analiz sonuçlarında bebek ölüm oranındaki %1’lik artışın yaşam beklentisini %0,111 azalttığı, CO2 emisyonlarının ise yaşam beklentisi üzerinde bir etkisinin olmadığı bulunmuştur. Buna karşılık ülkeler tek tek değerlendirildiğinde CO2 emisyonundaki %1’lik artışın Kanada, İspanya, Fransa, İtalya ve İsveç’te yaşam beklentisini düşürdüğü görülmüştür. Ayrıca, İngiltere’de işsizlik oranındaki azalma ve kamu sağlık harcamalarındaki artışın yaşam beklentisini olumlu yönde etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. CO2 emisyonundaki artışın en fazla Fransa’da yaşam beklentisini olumsuz yönde etkilediği görülmüştür.Kanada’da işsizlik oranındaki %1’lik artışın yaşam beklentisini %0,034 oranında arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Bebek ölüm oranlarındaki %1’lik artış en fazla Kanada’da yaşam beklentisini %0,239 oranında azaltmaktadır. Sonuç olarak ekonomik değişkenlerden yüksek gelir gurubuna dâhil olan ülkelerde kamu sağlık harcamalarının mevcut sağlık harcamaları içerisindeki payının artırılması ve işsizlik oranındaki düşüşler yaşam süresini olumlu yönde etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Üst gelir gurubundaki ülkelerde politika yapıcılarının gelecek yıllarda CO2 salınımını azaltan çevre dostu; sağlık harcamalarını ve istihdamı artıran ekonomi politikalarına yönelmelerinin, beklenen yaşam süresi üzerine olumlu bir gelişme yaratacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Ayrıca gelişmiş ülkelerde özellikle ergenlik çağında doğan bebeklerdeki ölüm oranlarını da azaltıcı sosyal politikalara de beklenen yaşam süresinde iyileşmelere yol açabilir. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, yüksek gelirli ülkelerdeki politika yapıcılarının gelecekte daha kapsamlı tedbirler almasına katkıda bulunabilir.
Effects of Environmental Degradation, Economic, and Demographic Variables on Life Expectancy: Panel Data Analysis for High-Income Countries
Şehadet Bulut, Saltuk AğıralioğluLife expectancy is one of the most significant variables that reflect countries’ welfare levels. This study aims to investigate the effects of environmental degradation, economic conditions, and demographic factors on average life expectancy in 10 high-income countries (i.e., Canada, Belgium, England, Germany, Austria, Spain, Sweden, France, Italy, and the USA). The study covers the 2000-2019 period and has selected CO2 emissions, infant mortality rates, unemployment rates, and share of public health expenditures in current health expenditures as the indicators. The study uses the panel data analysis method, first analyzing the countries together and then individually. When examining the countries together, a 1% increase in infant mortality has been determined to lead to a 0.111% decrease in life expectancy, whereas CO2 emissions have no effect on life expectancy. When analyzing the countries separately, a 1% increase in CO2 emissions was observed to reduce life expectancy in Canada, Spain, France, Italy, and Sweden. Reduced unemployment rates and an increased share of public health expenditures were seen to positively affect average life expectancy in England. Moreover, increased CO2 emissions were seen to negatively affect life expectancy in France. Meanwhile, a 1% increase in unemployment in Canada leads to a 0.034% increases in life expectancy, while a 1% increase in the infant mortalityrate causes a 0.239% decrease in life expectancy. As a result, increasing the share of public health expenditures in current health expenditures and decreasing unemployment rates have been concluded to positively affect average life expectancy in high-income countries. Policymakers in high-income countries are expected to focus on environmentally friendly policies that reduce CO2 emissions and increase health expenditures and employment in the coming years; as this in turn will contribute to positive developments in life expectancy. In addition, social policies that reduce infant mortality rates, especially for babies born of a mother going through puberty, may lead to improvements in life expectancy in high-income countries. These findings can be used to contribute to policy makers in high-income countries developing further comprehensive measurements.
Environmental degradation, economic conditions, and demographic factors are significant determinants of life expectancy. Life expectancy is the average life of a newborn based on current health conditions (Chukmaitova, 2003, p.4). Life expectancy is also an indicator of a country’s economic, social, and environmental development (Teker, Teker, & Sönmez, 2012, p. 119). Life expectancy has significant effects on the public finances and economic growth of countries due to how it affects the financing of health and retirement benefits. Environmental degradation such as air pollution, water pollution, and climate change can have significantly adverse effects on health and life expectancy. Economic conditions can also play a role in life expectancy, as countries with higher levels of economic development often have better access to health care, education, and other resources that can contribute to longer lifespans. However, income inequality can negatively impact health outcomes due to lower-income individuals possibly having more limited access to health care and other resources. Demographic factors such as infant mortality rate also affect life expectancy.
This study examines the effects of CO2 emissions, unemployment rates, infant mortalityrates, and public health expenditures on life expectancy for the period of 2000-2019 for ten
high-income countries. The variables used in the study have been determined as CO2 emissions for environmental degradation, infant mortality rates for demographic indicators, and unemployment rates and public health expenditures’ share of current health expenditures as the economic variables. Data regarding life expectancy (LE), unemployment rate (UR), infant mortality rate (IMR), public health expenditures (HE), and CO2 emissions have been taken annually from the World Bank (2023) database for the 2000-2019 period. According to the results obtained from the study, evaluating the countries as a group reveals a 1% increase in infant mortality rate to reduce average life expectancy by 0.11%, while increases in CO2
emissions, the unemployment rate, and public health expenditures decrease average life expectancy. These do not appear to have a significant effect on the duration. either.
Findings from the results regarding the concept of average life expectancy differ for underdeveloped and developed countries. The findings from studies conducted in underdeveloped countries show factors such as clean and easily accessible water, nutrition and food, and environmental health to affect average life expectancy. Teker, Teker and Sönmez (2012) found health expenditures, income, unemployment, and inflation to affect life expectancy in high-income countries. Infant mortality rates are also among the most important factors affecting life expectancy in all countries (Bayın, 2016; Linden & Ray, 2017; Şener, Aslan, & Yiğit, 2019). Private health expenditures have a positive effect on life expectancy in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Şahin (2018) analyzed 16 Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization (APEC) countries using data from the 2000–2013 period.
The findings from the current study have revealed a 1% increase in total lifetime health expenditures to increase life expectancy at birth by 0.635%. Some studies have determined the relationship between CO2 emissions and expected CO2 emissions to be a determinant affecting lifespan (Ali & Ahmad, 2014; Issaoui, Toumi, & Touili, 2015; Balan, 2016; Tıraş & Özbek, 2020). The results from the current study indicate unemployment’s negative impact on life expectancy to be highest in England, with a 1% increase in unemployment being associated with a 0.109% decrease in life expectancy. This relationship is weaker in Belgium, Germany, Spain, and the USA, whose decreases range from 0.021%-0.001%. These findings are consistent with previous studies in the field. Furthermore, the current study has found increasing public health expenditures to be able to lead to an increase in life expectancy, with a 1% increase resulting in a maximum increase of 0.12% in England and 0.091% in Italy. This result is also consistent with previous studies (Dhrifi, 2018; Pedram &.Mehrjou, 2019; Tatlı& Barak, 2021). Also, in this study an increase in CO2 emissions negatively impacted life expectancy in France, whereas an increase in infant mortality rate was found to be negatively associated with life expectancy in Canada. Surprisingly and contrary to previous studies, this study found a 1% increase in public health expenditures to reduce life expectancy by 0.193% in Canada. These findings can contribute to having policymakers develop further comprehensive policies regarding the factors that affect life expectancy in high-income countries.
