Vergi Politikasının BIST 100 ve Katılım 30 Endeksine Etkisinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi
Server Demirci, Musa Onur BeskisizVergi politikası, maliyenin en güçlü politika seçeneklerinden biridir. Vergi politikası, devlete gelir sağlamanın yanı sıra tüketime, tasarrufa, yatırıma, ihracata ve ithalata yön vermek, adil bir gelir dağılımını sağlamak gibi birçok amaçla kullanılır. Vergi politikası ile hedeflenmese bile menkul ve gayrimenkul birçok varlığın fiyatı etkilenebilir. Verginin varlık değeri üzerindeki etkisi, verginin kapitalizasyonu ve verginin amortismanı kavramları ile açıklanabilir.
Birçok nedenle borsalar, yatırımların tamamını çekememektedir. Bu nedenlerinden biri olan yatırım yapılacak şirketin faaliyet konusuna duyulan hassasiyet çalışmamızın hareket noktasını oluşturmaktadır. Bu durumu ortadan kaldırmak için İstanbul Borsası bünyesinde 25.11.2021 tarihinden itibaren eşanlı fiyatlardan hesaplanan katılım endeksleri oluşturulmuştur.
Faaliyet konusu hassasiyeti olan yatırımcıların, sermaye kazancından ziyade kâr payı elde etmek amacıyla yatırım yapabileceklerini dolayısıyla da kâr payı dağıtımı üzerinden alınan vergide olabilecek değişikliklere tepki verebileceklerini düşünmekteyiz. Bu savı test etmek için çalışmamızda 22 Aralık 2021 tarihli kâr payı dağıtımlarındaki vergi kesintisi indiriminin etkilerini inceledik. Olay çalışması yöntemini kullandığımız çalışmamızda; bağımsız değişken olarak vergi oranı değişikliğini, bağımlı değişken olarak hisse senedi fiyat değişikliklerini aldık. Bu düzenlemenin Borsa İstanbul 100 ve Katılım 30 endeksine dâhil şirketlerin hisse fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini karşılaştırmalı olarak inceledik. İnceleme konusu vergi indiriminin Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksinde yer alan firmaların hisse senedi fiyatlarında anlamlı bir değişikliğe neden olmadığı sonucuna ulaştık. Diğer taraftan aynı vergi değişikliğinin Katılım 30 endeksinde yer alan firmaların hisse senedi fiyatında anlamlı değişikliğe neden olduğu bulgusuna ulaştık. Başka bir ifadeyle beklentilerimiz doğrultusunda vergi indirimi, Katılım 30 endeksindeki firmaların hisse fiyatlarını arttırmıştır; endekste kapitalizasyon etkisi yaratmıştır. Ayrıca ulaştığımız sonuçlar, Katılım 30 endeksinin yarı güçlü formda etkin olmadığını göstermiştir.
Comparative Analysis of the Effect of Tax Policy on the BIST 100 and Participation 30 Index
Server Demirci, Musa Onur BeskisizTax policy is one of the most powerful policy options in finance. The effect of tax on asset value can be explained by the concepts of tax capitalization and tax depreciation. The first concept is that the tax increase reduces the price of the relevant asset; The second concept expresses that the tax decrease increases the price of the related asset.
For many reasons, stock markets are not able to attract all investments. One of these reasons, the sensitivity to the field of activity of the company to be invested, constitutes the starting point of our study. We think that investors with sensitivity to their field of activity may invest in order to gain dividends rather than capital gains, and therefore they may react to possible changes in the tax levied on dividend distribution. In order to test this argument, in our study, we comparatively examined the effects of the tax regulation dated December 22, 2021 on the share prices of companies included in the Borsa Istanbul 100 and Participation 30 index. We have reached the conclusion that the tax deduction, which is the subject of the review, did not cause a significant change in the stock prices in the BIST 100 index. On the other hand, we found that the same tax change caused a significant change in the stock price of the companies included in the Participation 30 index. In addition, our results showed that the Participation 30 index hasn’t a semi-strong form of market efficiency
Tax policy, as a sub-branch of fiscal policy, is one of the most powerful policy options of finance. In addition to providing income to the state, tax policy is used for many purposes, such as influencing consumption, savings, investment, exports, and imports, and ensuring a fair income distribution. As a result of tax policy, even if not specifically targeted, the legislator can influence the price of many assets, movables, and real estate. The concepts of tax capitalization and tax depreciation can explain the effect of tax on asset value. The first concept refers to enacting a new tax or a tax increase that reduces the price of the relevant asset, whereas the second concept refers to the abolition or reduction of an existing tax that increases the price of the relevant asset.
Investors seeking halal income base their decisions on the activities of the companies. As a result of the difficulties in obtaining this information, some investors were barred from becoming partners with companies traded in the stock market. To attract investors who stay away from investment in the stock market, participation indices calculated at simultaneous prices have been created within the body of the Istanbul Stock Exchange as of November 25, 2021. Borsa İstanbul discloses to the public information that will meet all relevant investors’ expectations, particularly the fields of activity of companies included in the index.
Two types of income can be generated in the stock market: capital gain arising from the stock price differences and the profit share on the stock. We think that these investors make profit-share-oriented investments because the logic of participation in the company’s earnings is at the forefront of the investors in question. Hence, they are likely to be more sensitive to decisions regarding the dividend.
To test this argument, our study examined the effects of the legal regulation with the December 22, 2021, announcement date. With the tax regulation, the tax withholding rate in dividend distributions was reduced from 15% to 10%. We examined the effects of this regulation on the stock returns of companies in the Borsa Istanbul 100 and the Participation 30 indexes. As a result of our study, we expect a decrease in the tax rate and an increase in the stocks of the companies in the Participation 30 index. We used the event study method and employed the change in tax rates as the independent variable and stock prices as the dependent variable. The event study is an econometric method that examines the share price movements of companies around events related to the companies. We accepted the event day as the date of the law change announcement, the event window as +/10 days from the event day, and the forecast window as 250 days before the event day.
We have not determined that the tax deduction under consideration causes a significant change in the stock prices of the companies included in the Borsa Istanbul 100 index. However, we concluded that the same tax change caused a significant change in the stock price of the companies included in the Participation 30 index. In other words, the tax cut increased the stocks of the companies in the Participation 30 index, as expected. According to the efficient markets hypothesis, this result, which supports our argument, also shows that the Participation 30 index has low market efficiency
