Yükselen Ekonomilerde Teknolojik Yakınsama: Birim Kök Testleri ile Bir İnceleme
Mustafa ZuhalTeknolojik gelişmeler, ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesinde ve kalkınmasında önemli rol oynamaktadır. Özellikle gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasındaki başta gelir olmak üzere sosyoekonomik faktörlerde yakınsamanın temelinde teknolojik gelişmeler yer almaktadır. Aynı zamanda gelişmekte olan ülkeler teknolojik yetenek düzeylerini geliştirerek lider ülkeleri yakalamayı hedeflemektedirler. Bu aşamada başta gelişmekte olan ülkeler olmak üzere ülkeler arasındaki teknolojik yakınsamanın incelenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada on yükselen ekonomide teknolojik yakınsamanın olup olmadığının incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda patent sayıları, işgücü verimliliği ve toplam faktör verimliliği üzerinden teknolojik yakınsama Pesaran CADF ve SURADF birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, bazı ülkelerde yakınsama olsa da, ülkeler arasında genel olarak teknolojik yakınsama doğrulanamamaktadır.
Technological Convergence in Emerging Economies: An Investigation with Unit Root Tests
Mustafa ZuhalTechnological developments play an important role in economic growth and development and form the basis in the convergence of socioeconomic factors between developed and developing countries, especially income. At the same time, developing countries aim to catch up with the leading countries by improving their technological capabilities, and examining
the technological convergence between countries, especially developing countries, is essential at this stage. This study aims to examine whether technological convergence occurs in 10 emerging economies. For this purpose, the study analyzes technological convergence over the variables of number of patents, labor productivity, and total factor productivity using Pesaran’s (2007) cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and seemingly unrelated regression augmented Dickey-Fuller (SURADF) unit root tests. According to the results of the analysis, although there is convergence in some countries, it does not confirm in general technological convergence among the countries.
Technological developments play an important role in economic growth and development. However, the neoclassical approach ignores technological learning and effort by considering technology as an external element. Moreover, this approach assumes that countries will converge in the long run due to free technology. However, these assumptions of the neoclassical approach have been criticized by the evolutionary approach, and special attention has been given to technological learning. In theevolutionary approach, technological learning and imitation are included in the convergence process. In general, convergence is evaluated as an economy’s tendency toward a steady state by growing or shrinking at a certain speed (Ünsal, 2007, p. 157). In this respect, whether technological convergence occurs in developing countries needsto be investigated. This study aims to examine whether technology convergence occursin developing countries. For this purpose, the study considers the ten big emerging markets (BEM-10) of Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico,Poland, South Africa, and Türkiye from among important economies and discusses these emerging economies. Unlike other studies, this one includes total factor and labor productivity in the analysis as supplemental variables, as well as the number of patents, thus aiming to analyze the technological developments among countries in detail over
different variables. The study also aims to make significant contributions to the technological convergence literature, which is limited in terms of the scope of study and the variables and analysis techniques that have been used. At the same time, this study differs from other studies that have examined technological developments through different variables, thus showing itself to possess originally.
Many theoretical and empirical studies have occurred with regard to the convergence approach. However, due to the scope and content of what is being studied, apart from the fundamental studies on the convergence approach, this article also will extensively examine studies that have evaluated the technological convergence approach in terms of convergence analyses. The papers the study has examined within its scope show that various types of the convergence approach have been developed among countries, regions, and sectors. At the same time, these studies are understood to have examined the presence of convergence using various socioeconomic variables in addition to income convergence. When considering the technological convergence studies, the variables of number of patents, labor productivity, and total factor productivity are seen to have been used intensively to represent technology.
In terms of the number of patents, technological convergence has been confirmed in Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Türkiye, China, South Korea, Poland, and South Africa as a result of Pesaran’s (2007) cross-sectionally augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) unit root test, as well as South Korea, Argentina, and Poland as a result of the seemingly unrelated regression augmented Dickey-Fuller (SURADF) unit root test. In terms of total factor productivity, Türkiye, Mexico, and Poland are seen to have converged as a result of the Pesaran CADF unit root test, and Türkiye and Mexico as a result of the SURADF unit root test. Regarding labor productivity, convergence has been found in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil based on the Pesaran CADF test and in Mexico based on the panel SURADF test.
This study aims to examine whether technology convergence occurs in developing countries. For this purpose, the study has discussed the 10 big emerging markets.Technological convergence is understood to have occurred in a limited number of countries regarding number of patents, total factor productivity, and labor productivity. Natural convergence was not seen to have occurred as assumed in the neoclassical approach. The fact that technological convergence was not confirmed in the group of examined countries offers important implications for developing countries. High income and technology, especially in South Korea, are known to result from conscious policies aimed at science, industry, and technology. In this respect, special attention should be given to technological learning in developing countries. At the same time, policies for national technological efforts and learning need to be developed and implemented consistently. In addition, importance is had in establishing and successfully operating national innovation systems.
