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DOI :10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006   IUP :10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006    Full Text (PDF)

Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves

Furkan Börü, Dündar Murat Demiröz

After the industrial revolution, capitalist economies have entered the process of rapid growth. But this growth process is not steady. Rapid expansion periods are usually followed by crisis periods which cause social welfare to fall and poverty. The Kondratieff waves, which lasted for about 50 years, explain this fluctuating development process in relation to technological developments. The aim of this work is to explain the structural and institutional transformations created by the Kondratieff waves; to examine the effects of the expected sixth wave. For this purpose, the great surge of development approach introduced by Carlota Perez is used. The most important outcome of this study is the foresight that the beginning of the sixth Kondratieff wave will deepen the problems of unemployment, income distribution inequality and the breakdown of interrelation between finance and production. It is expected that the impacts of information technologies will be felt more in developing countries, today and in near future. This situation is likely to trigger start of fifth Kondratieff wave in developing countries that may raise aforementoned problems already existing in many developing countries. Therefore, the onset of the fifth wave will aggravate existing problems. This prediction is another result of the article.

Keywords: Long Waves, Structural Change, Innovation
JEL Classification : O32 , N10 , O14
DOI :10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006   IUP :10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006    Full Text (PDF)

Beşinci ve Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgalarının Teknolojik ve Sosyoekonomik Etkileri

Furkan Börü, Dündar Murat Demiröz

Sanayi Devrimi’nden sonra, kapitalist ekonomiler hızlı büyümeye sürecine girmişlerdir. Fakat bu büyüme süreci dengeli değildir. Hızlı genişleme dönemlerini genellikle, sosyal refahın düşmesine ve yoksulluğa neden olan kriz dönemleri takip etmektedir. Takriben elli yıl süren Kondratieff Dalgaları, bu dalgalı gelişim sürecini teknolojik gelişmeler ve yenilikler ile ilişkili olarak açıklamaktadırlar. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kondratieff Dalgalarının yarattığı yapısal ve kurumsal dönüşümleri açıklamak; bu çerçevede beklenen Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın yaratacağı etkileri incelemektir. Bu amaçla Carlota Perez tarafından ortaya konulan büyük gelişme dalgası yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Altıncı Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlamasının, işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması sorunlarını derinleştireceği öngörüsü, çalışmanın ulaştığı en önemli sonuçtur. İçinde bulunduğumuz süreçte ve gelecek dönemde, bilgi teknolojilerinin etkilerinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha çok hissedilmesi beklenmektedir. Bu durumun gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nı başlatması olasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması; işsizlik, gelir dağılımı bozukluğu ve finans sektörü ile sanayi sektörü arasında bulunan bağların kopması gibi sorunları gündeme getirebilir. Mevcut durumda birçok gelişmekte olan ülkede bu sorunlar mevcuttur. Bu nedenle Beşinci Kondratieff Dalgası’nın başlaması, mevcut olan sorunları daha da ağırlaştıracaktır. Bu öngörü, çalışmanın ulaştığı diğer bir önemli sonuçtur.

Keywords: Uzun Dalgalar, Yapısal Dönüşüm, Yenilik
JEL Classification : O32 , N10 , O14

EXTENDED ABSTRACT


After the industrial revolution, capitalist economies have entered the process of rapid growth. But this growth process is not steady. Rapid expansion periods are usually followed by crisis periods which cause social welfare to fall and poverty. This process of fluctuating development, which the capitalist development process has shown, was first examined in detail by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff. Although Kondratieff made a detailed analysis in his work; he did not developed a theory that would explain these fluctuations. Joseph Schumpeter explained the reason for the formation of these long waves as innovations with the theory of the business cycle that he developed. According to Schumpeter, the volatile growth process of capitalist economies is caused by the emergence of new products, new services, and new processes.

Schumpeter was not able to elaborate two points in his business cycle theory. The first point concerns with the role of financial institutions in the development of long waves. The second point relates to the changes that long waves make to socio-economic structures and institutions. Carlota Perez tried to elaborate these two points by using approach of the great surges of development which she developed. According to Perez, the technology revolutions causes the great surges of devolepment which lasts for 50 or 60 years. Technology revolutions are accompanied by the creation of a new techno-economic paradigm. The great surges of development is divided into two periods, which are called installation period and deployment period. Moreover there is a transition phase between these two periods.

In the installation period that followed the technology revolution, new technologies and the new techno-economic paradigm rapidly spreads to all layers of the society. As a result, the structures and organizations established in the society are shaken. Problems such as unemployment, income distribution inequality, and the breakdown of interrelation between finance and production appear at this period. The installation period ends with financial crises which are caused by rapid increase in asset prices. In the period following the financial meltdown, the economy enters the recession phase of which the duration is uncertain. In this transitional period, the social tensions that arose in installation period become more visible due to the continuing stagnation. Therefore, the need for institutional reforms increases, especially in financial institutions. With the start of institutional reforms, deployment period of great surges of development begins. At this stage, the new techno-economic paradigm goes beyond the economy and spreads to all areas of the society. As a result of institutional reforms, problems such as unemployment, the breakdown of interrelation between finance and production, income distribution inequality are resolved. The great surges of development ends with the saturation of the technologies whose rise had caused it to begin. This process restarts with the emergence of a new technology revolution.

Innovations that took place in the field of information technology in the 1970s caused the fifth Kondratieff wave to start in the United States. The technology revolution in the field of information technology was accompanied by the spread of the effects of the new techno-economic paradigm to all layers of the society. The beginning of the fifth wave caused problems such as income distribution inequality, unemployment, and the breakdown of ties between finance and production in developed countries. These problems, were clearly observed in the United States, where the technology revolution in the field of information techology took place. The global financial crisis, which began in the United States in 2008, points to the end of the installation period of fifth wave. Because the effects of the changes created by information technologies were started to be felt in all layers of society, the deployment period of the fifth wave has begun in developed countries, especially in the USA. But aforementioned problems of installation period are still continuing.

It is quite possible that in 2020 and after wards, the technology revolution, which is expected to result in the progresses of nanotechnology and biotechnology, will start the installation period. The beginning of the sixth Kondratieff wave can bring back the problems which were seen in previous installation period. The continuing of these problems in developing countries may lead to the further aggravation of these problems with the onset of the sixth wave in the near future.

At the end of the installation periods of great surges of development, technologies, which started the technology revolution, saturated in the countries where technology revolution began. At the same time, saturated techologies transfered to the devoloping countries. Because of this situation, it is possible that effect of IT techologies in devoloping countries will be felt more in near future. On the other hand, the beginning of fifth wave in devoloping countries can cause problems which are seen in the installation period. Currently, many devoloping countries faces these problems. So new technologies can deepen their effect.


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APA

Börü, F., & Demiröz, D.M. (2019). Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 69(2), 247-283. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006


AMA

Börü F, Demiröz D M. Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves. Istanbul Journal of Economics. 2019;69(2):247-283. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006


ABNT

Börü, F.; Demiröz, D.M. Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves. Istanbul Journal of Economics, [Publisher Location], v. 69, n. 2, p. 247-283, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Börü, Furkan, and Dündar Murat Demiröz. 2019. “Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves.” Istanbul Journal of Economics 69, no. 2: 247-283. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006


Chicago: Humanities Style

Börü, Furkan, and Dündar Murat Demiröz. “Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves.” Istanbul Journal of Economics 69, no. 2 (Sep. 2024): 247-283. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006


Harvard: Australian Style

Börü, F & Demiröz, DM 2019, 'Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves', Istanbul Journal of Economics, vol. 69, no. 2, pp. 247-283, viewed 10 Sep. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Börü, F. and Demiröz, D.M. (2019) ‘Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves’, Istanbul Journal of Economics, 69(2), pp. 247-283. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006 (10 Sep. 2024).


MLA

Börü, Furkan, and Dündar Murat Demiröz. “Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves.” Istanbul Journal of Economics, vol. 69, no. 2, 2019, pp. 247-283. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006


Vancouver

Börü F, Demiröz DM. Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves. Istanbul Journal of Economics [Internet]. 10 Sep. 2024 [cited 10 Sep. 2024];69(2):247-283. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006 doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006


ISNAD

Börü, Furkan - Demiröz, DündarMurat. “Technological and Socio-Economic Effects of Fifth and Sixth Kondratieff Waves”. Istanbul Journal of Economics 69/2 (Sep. 2024): 247-283. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2018-0006



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Submitted26.10.2018
Accepted08.11.2019
Published Online31.12.2019

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