Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki İlişki: Kesirli Frekanslı Fourier ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı
Mustafa Orhan ÖzerBu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. 2005:Q1-2021:Q1 dönemine ait üç aylık zaman serilerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, ilk olarak değişkenlerin durağanlık durumları kesirli frekanslı Fourier Genişletilmiş Dickey– Fuller birim kök testi ile incelenmiştir. Birim kök testi, değişkenlerin ekonomik büyüme için I(0) ve işsizlik oranı için I(1) olduğunu göstermiştir. Daha sonra, değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını sınamak amacıyla kesirli frekanslı Fourier ARDL sınır testi kullanılmıştır. Fourier bootstrap ARDL prosedüründen elde edilen bulgulara göre hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde büyümeden işsizliğe doğru tek yönlü negatif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Ekonomik büyümede meydana gelen bir birimlik artış işsizlik oranının uzun dönemde 1.48 birim, kısa dönemde 0.09 birim azalmasına yol açmaktadır. Son olarak, kesirli frekanslı Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve Fourier ARDL testinden elde edilen bulguları destekleyen sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır.
The Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate: Fractional Frequency Fourier ARDL Bounds Test Approach
Mustafa Orhan ÖzerThe present study investigates the relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate in Turkiye. First, the stationarity of the variables is examined using the fractional frequency Fourier Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test in the study, which covers the quarterly time series from 2005:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The unit root test reveals that the variables are I(1) for economic growth and I(0) for the unemployment rate. Afterward, the fractional frequency Fourier autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test was used to assess the existence of the long-run relationship between the variables. The findings of the Fourier bootstrap ARDL procedure reveal a unidirectional negative relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate in both the long and short run. A unit increase in economic growth reduces unemployment rate by 1.48 and 0.09 units in the long and short run, respectively. Finally, the fractional frequency Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality test is used, with the results supporting the Fourier ARDL test findings.
Sustainable economic growth is an indispensable condition for improving social welfare. By this way, substantial gains have been achieved in many countries in the last centuries. These gains include not only education and health, but also individual freedoms. However, unemployment has both economic and social costs. As a result, policymakers strive to reduce unemployment while maintaining high growth rates. At first glance, these two goals may appear mutually exclusive, but a lower unemployment rate may not encourage economic growth, or the jobless growth argument may be valid for the economy. Therefore, revealing the relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate is critical for determining the best economic policy.
Within the framework of the Fourier approach, this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate in Turkiye. The data set is quarterly and spans the years 2005:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The fractional frequency Fourier Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test proposed by Bozoklu, Yılancı, and Görüş (2020) is used to examine the variables’ stationarity of the variables. Meanwhile, their fractional frequency Fourier ARDL bounds test approach (Yılancı, Bozoklu, and Görüş, 2020) is applied to test the long-term relationship between the variables. The causality relationship between the variables is investigated using the fractional frequency Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality test proposed by Pata and Yılancı (2020). The models based on the Fourier approachbased models detect unknown numbers, locations, and types of structural breaks in variables. These models avoid the loss of test power that occurs in econometric models using many estimated dummy variables. In the presence of structural breaks or nonlinear trends in series, powerful results are obtained (Banerjee, Arcabic, and Lee, 2017). Additionally, the tests used in this study consider fractional frequencies. Thus, information about the permanence of possible structural breaks can be obtained (Christopoulos and Leon-Ledesma, 2011).
First, the stationarity of the variables is tested using the fractional frequency Fourier ADF unit root test, and the economic growth and unemployment rate are determined to be I(0) and I(1), respectively. Then, the fractional frequency Fourier ARDL bounds test is applied. The test results reveal a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate in the long run. The long-term coefficient was negative and significant. A unit increase in economic growth reduces the unemployment rate by 1.48 units in the long run. Similarly, the short-run coefficient is negative and significant. A unit increase in economic growth reduces the unemployment rate by 0.09 units in the short run. The coefficient of the error correction model is negative and statistically significant, indicating provision of the dynamic equilibrium condition and elimination of a deviation from the short-run equilibrium in the long run. Convergence toward the equilibrium path took place at a speed of 0.13%. In other words, imbalances occurring in the short term are balanced after 7.52 periods (approximately 2 years). Finally, the fractional frequency Fourier Toda– Yamamoto causality test investigates the causal relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate. The test results confirm the findings obtained from the fractional frequency Fourier ARDL bound test.
This study reveals that the increase in economic growth led to a significant decrease in the unemployment rate in Turkiye. However, the effect of economic growth on the unemployment rate is extremely limited in the short run; hence, the high growth rate must be sustainable. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate does not affect economic growth. As a result, employment policies cannot be viewed as a tool for stimulating economic growth. These findings also call the jobless growth argument into question. The achievement of the high and sustainable economic growth target is expected to be sufficient to reduce unemployment rate and increase employment in Turkiye.
