Research Article


DOI :10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011   IUP :10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011    Full Text (PDF)

The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia

Özgür UysalSultan Sat

The relationship between economic growth and export has been one of the most disputed issues in economics literature. The main objective of this paper is to find the direction of the causality relationship between economic growth and export in Russia. We performed our analysis using quarterly economic growth and export data from 2003:q1 to 2018:q4. Using the ADF unit root test for stationarity we first analyzed whether the variables contained a unit root. As a result, we determined that all the variables were stationary at their first differences. Subsequently, we conducted the Engle Granger Cointegration test to analyze the long term relationship between the variables and we determined that there was a long-term relationship between the variables. By using the Granger Causality Test to determine the direction of the relationship, we found that a unidirectional causality existed between economic growth and export in the Russian economy between 2003 and 2018. As seen in the causality relationship between economic growth and export being unidirectional (from export to growth), the effect of export on economic growth is dominant because of export’s dependence on raw materials. Russia should reduce its economic dependence on oil prices and strong structural improvements are necessary to reduce this dependence.

JEL Classification : F14 , C14 , O47
DOI :10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011   IUP :10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011    Full Text (PDF)

Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Rusya Örneği

Özgür UysalSultan Sat

Ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki ilişki ekonomi literatüründe en sık tartışılan konulardan biridir. Bu çalışmanın ana amacı Rusya’da ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünü ortaya çıkarmaktır. Analizler 2003:q1 - 2018:q4 arası çeyreklik ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat verileri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Durağanlık testi için Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) birim kök testi kullanılarak değişkenlerin birim kök içerip içermediği analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, tüm değişkenlerin birinci farkları alındığında değişkenlerin durağan oldukları belirlenmiştir. Bu çalışmada daha sonra değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiyi analiz etmek için Engle Granger eşbütünleşme testi yapılmış olup, bununla birlikte değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonucu 2003 – 2018 yılları arası Rusya’da ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Ekonomik büyüme ile ihracat arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinde, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ihracatın etkisi Rusya’nın ihracatta ham maddeye olan bağlılığı nedeniyle baskındır. Çalışmanın ortaya koyduğu temel öneri ise Rusya’nın petrol fiyatlarına olan ekonomik bağımlılığını azaltması gerektiğidir. Rusya ekonomisinin petrol fiyatlarına olan bu bağımlılığını düşürmesi için Rusya ekonomisinde güçlü yapısal reformlar ve ilerlemeler gereklidir. 

JEL Classification : F14 , C14 , O47

PDF View

References

  • Acar, S. (2004). Uluslararasi Reel Ticaret: Teori, Politika. İzmir: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Yayınları. google scholar
  • Aktaş, C. (2009). Causality Analysis between Turkey’s Exports, Imports and Economic Growth. Kocaeli University Journal of Social Sciences, 18(2), 35–47. google scholar
  • Alagöz, M. (2009). Within the Framework of Internals Growth Theory a Causality Analysis on Relationship between Turkey’s Foreign Trade and Growth (1980-2006). Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 46(529), 75–84. Retrieved from http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr/files/ articles/152820004634_5.pdf google scholar
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (Eds.). (2013). Uluslararasi Iktisat. Eskişehir: Anadolu Üniversitesi Açık Öğretim Yayınları. Bayraktutan, Y., & İbrahim, A. (2008). Effect of Fixed Capital Investments on Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration Analysis (1980-2006). KMU Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 14, 1–12. google scholar
  • Bildirici, M. E., & Bakırtaş, T. (2014). The Relationship Among Oil, Natural Gas and Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey and South Africa) Countries. Energy, 65(C), 134–144. google scholar
  • Bradshaw, M., & Connolly, R. (2016). Russia’s Natural Resources in the World Economy: history, review and Reassessment, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 57(6), 700–726, DOI: 10.1080/15387216.2016.1254055. google scholar
  • Cetintaş, S., & Barışık, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636–649. google scholar
  • Feder, G. (1982). On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12, 59–73. google scholar
  • Göçer, İ. (2013). Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicisi Olarak İhracat: Gelişmekte Olan Asya Ülkeleri İçin Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 86, 27–42. Retrieved from https://www.tbb.org.tr/Content/Upload/dergiler/dosya/60/ TBB_dergi86-web.pdf. google scholar
  • Granger, C. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. doi:10.2307/1912791. google scholar
  • Granger, J. W. C., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111–120. Retrieved from https://wolfweb.unr.edu/homepage/zal/STAT758/ Granger_Newbold_1974.pdf. google scholar
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic Econometrics. Translated and edited by Senesen, U. and Senesen, G.G. Istanbul: Literatur Publications. Hüseyni, İ. (2012). Dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme analizi Türkiye örneği: 1980-2010. (Master Disseration). Ataturk University, Erzurum. google scholar
  • İspir, S. M., Ersoy, B. A., & Yılmazer, M. (2009). Do Exports or Imports Have More Effect on Turkey’s Growth Dynamics?. Dokuz Eylul University, Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 24(1), 59–72. Retrieved from http://iibf.deu.edu.tr/deuj/index.php/cilt1-sayi1/article/view/248/pdf_228. google scholar
  • Jayme, F. (2001). Notes on Trade and Growth. Texto Para Discussão. Retrieved from http://www. cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20166.pdf. google scholar
  • Khatun, R. (2016). Relation between Trade in Financial Services and Economic Growth in BRICS Economies: Cointegration and Causality Approach, Global Business Review, 17(1), 214–225. google scholar
  • Koçyiğit, A., Bayat, T., Kayhan, S., & Şentürk, M. (2015). Short and Long Term Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in BRICS-T Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Approach, Journal of Asian Development Studies, 4(3), 117–129. google scholar
  • Konya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach. Economic Modeling, 23(6), 978–992. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S0264999306000496. google scholar
  • Korkmaz, S. (2014). Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in Turkish Economy. Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(4), 119–128. google scholar
  • Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (1991). International Economics Theory and Policy. New York: Harper Collins Publishers. google scholar
  • Kuzmenko, E., Smutka, L., Pankov, M., & Efimova, N. (2017). The Success of Economic Policies in Russia: Dependence on Crude Oil vs. Export Diversification. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 65, 299–310. google scholar
  • Ledyaeva, S., & Linden, M. (2008). Determinants of Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Russian Regions. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 5(1), 87–105. google scholar
  • Mau, V. (2016). Between Crises and Sanctions: Economic Policy of the Russian Federation. Post-Soviet Affairs, 32(4), 350–377. google scholar
  • Mau, V. (2017). Russia’s Economic Policy in 2015–2016: The Imperative of Structural Reform. PostSoviet Affairs, 33(1), 63–83. Retrieved from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10605 86X.2016.1215679. google scholar
  • OECD (2015). Country statistics. Retrieved from: https://data.oecd.org google scholar
  • Özer, M., & Erdoğan, L. (2006). A Time Series Analysis of Export, Import and Economic Growth Relations in Turkey. Gazi University Economic Approaches,17(60-61), 93–110. doi:10.5455/ey.10619 google scholar
  • Rani, R., & Kumar, N. (2018). Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation. Jindal Journal of Business Research, 7(1), 13–23. google scholar
  • Sandalcılar, R. A. (2012). Relationship between Economic Growth and Exports in BRIC Countries: Panel Cointegration and Panel Causality. Suleyman Demirel University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 17(1), 161–179. Retrieved from http://sablon. sdu.edu.tr/fakulteler/iibf/ dergi/files/2012-1-8.pdf. google scholar
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2009). International Economics: Theory, Politics and Application. İstanbul: Güzem Can Publications. google scholar
  • Srinivasan, P. (2016). Causal Nexus between Export and Growth: BRICS Nations. SCMS Journal of Indian Management, 8(1), 67–80. google scholar
  • Tabata, S. (2006). Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 47(1), 95–111. google scholar
  • Takım, A. (2010). Relationship Between GDP and Exports in Turkey: Granger Causality Test. Ataturk University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(2), 1–16. Retrieved from http://dergipark. ulakbim.gov. tr/ataunisosbil/article/viewFile/1020005978/1020005764. google scholar
  • Tarı, R. (2011). Econometrics. Istanbul: Umuttepe Printing House. google scholar
  • Taştan, H. (2010). Spectral Analysis of Causal Relationships between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey. Journal of Economic Sciences, 2(1), 87–98. Retrieved from http:// www.sobiad. org/eJOURNALS/dergi_EBD/arsiv/2010_1/10huseyin_tastan.pdf. google scholar
  • The Central Bank of Russian Federation (CBR). Retrieved from: https://www.cbr.ru/Eng/ statistics/?PrtId=svs. google scholar
  • The World Bank – World Development Indicators. Retrieved from: http://databank.worldbank.org/ data/reports.aspx?source=2&country=RUS&series=&period=#. google scholar
  • U.S. Energy Information Agency, (EIA) (2017). Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/beta/ international/analysis_includes/ countries_long/Russia/russia.pdf. (Accessed 09 July 2017). google scholar
  • Uysal, Ö., & Sat, S. (2015). Causality Relationship between Export and Economic Growth: The Case of Russia. International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Kazan-Russia Federation. 416-422. google scholar
  • Yiğidim, A., & Köse, N. (1997). Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth, and Role of Imports: The Case of Turkey (1980-1996). Economic Approach, 8(26), 71–85. Retrieved from http://ekonomikyaklasim.org/pdfs2/EYD_V08_N26_A05.pdf. google scholar
  • Zamaraev, B., Kiiutsevskaia, A., Nazarova A., & Sukhanov E., (2014). The Slowdown of Russian Economic Growth. Problems of Economic Transition, 57(3), 13–56. google scholar

Citations

Copy and paste a formatted citation or use one of the options to export in your chosen format


EXPORT



APA

Uysal, Ö., & Sat, S. (2019). The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 69(1), 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011


AMA

Uysal Ö, Sat S. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. Istanbul Journal of Economics. 2019;69(1):43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011


ABNT

Uysal, Ö.; Sat, S. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. Istanbul Journal of Economics, [Publisher Location], v. 69, n. 1, p. 43-65, 2019.


Chicago: Author-Date Style

Uysal, Özgür, and Sultan Sat. 2019. “The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia.” Istanbul Journal of Economics 69, no. 1: 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011


Chicago: Humanities Style

Uysal, Özgür, and Sultan Sat. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia.” Istanbul Journal of Economics 69, no. 1 (Dec. 2024): 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011


Harvard: Australian Style

Uysal, Ö & Sat, S 2019, 'The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia', Istanbul Journal of Economics, vol. 69, no. 1, pp. 43-65, viewed 14 Dec. 2024, https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011


Harvard: Author-Date Style

Uysal, Ö. and Sat, S. (2019) ‘The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia’, Istanbul Journal of Economics, 69(1), pp. 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011 (14 Dec. 2024).


MLA

Uysal, Özgür, and Sultan Sat. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia.” Istanbul Journal of Economics, vol. 69, no. 1, 2019, pp. 43-65. [Database Container], https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011


Vancouver

Uysal Ö, Sat S. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia. Istanbul Journal of Economics [Internet]. 14 Dec. 2024 [cited 14 Dec. 2024];69(1):43-65. Available from: https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011 doi: 10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011


ISNAD

Uysal, Özgür - Sat, Sultan. The Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export: The Case of Russia”. Istanbul Journal of Economics 69/1 (Dec. 2024): 43-65. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2019-0011



TIMELINE


Submitted18.04.2019
Accepted17.06.2019
Published Online28.06.2019

LICENCE


Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

This license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon your work non-commercially, and although their new works must also acknowledge you and be non-commercial, they don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.


SHARE




Istanbul University Press aims to contribute to the dissemination of ever growing scientific knowledge through publication of high quality scientific journals and books in accordance with the international publishing standards and ethics. Istanbul University Press follows an open access, non-commercial, scholarly publishing.